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Reassessing Risk in Russia: Emerging Confidence in Emerging
Markets


5th CFO Summit Emerging Europe & CIS

October 17, 2012




Alexey Kornya, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Contents




                   MTS at a glance      ▪ MTS at a glance
 Emerging confidence in emerging
                         markets
Russia: local liquidity and financing




                                                                       2
MTS at a glance

                                                                                                                   +34%


   The leading telecommunications provider in                     Total Group                          11 293.2         12 318.7     13 181.0
                                                                                          9 867.3
    Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent                         Revenue
    States (CIS)
                                                                     (USD mln)

   MTS one of the BRANDZ™ Top 100 Most                                                     2009           2010           2011         2012E

    Powerful Brands
     ‐ MTS included in the ranking in 2008, 2009, 2010,                                                    108.1
                                                                          Total                                           106.1
       2011 and 2012                                            Subscribers*
                                                                                                                                        105.6

     ‐ 85th brand overall with a brand value of $9.5 bln                                   102.4

                                                                     (millions)
   Level III ADRs (NYSE:MBT) have been publicly                                            2009           2010           2011        Q2 2012
    traded on the New York Stock Exchange since
    June 2000
                                                           Subscribers, Russia            2009             2010            2011        Q2 2012

   MTS is majority-owned by Sistema JSFC                  Mobile (millions)                     69.3             71.4        70.0           69.6

    (LSE:SSA), the largest diversified public              HH passed, 000s                     7 502           9 890        11 433         11 507
    financial corporation
                                                           BB Internet, 000s                   1 298           1 805         2 152          2 285
    in Russia and the CIS
                                                           Pay TV, 000s                        1 762           2 580         2 987          2 937

                                                           *Including subscribers of Mobile TeleSystems LLC, a mobile operator in Belarus, in which
                                                           MTS owns a 49% stake and CDMA subscribers in Ukraine.



                                                                                                                                                      3
Contents




                    MTS at a glance
 Emerging confidence in emerging        ▪   Emerging markets are drivers of economic growth
                         markets        ▪   Budgetary discipline and ample reserves
                                        ▪   Low indebtedness
Russia: local liquidity and financing   ▪   Sovereign ratings fail to reflect economic reality
                                        ▪   Corporate credit ratings lagging
                                        ▪   Volatile stock market




                                                                                                 4
Emerging markets are drivers of economic growth

                                                            GDP growth forecast
                                                            11%
   Emerging markets are growing and consuming
     ‐ IMF forecasts about 4% GDP growth for 2012-2013      9%
       in Russia                                            7%
     ‐ Higher growth rates in developing Asia
                                                            5%                4.3%                  4.3%                        3.8%
     ‐ Consumption growth in BRIC markets markedly                                                                    3.7%
       higher than developing markets                       3%
     ‐ Russian market characterized by moderate growth
       and high disposable income                           1%

                                                            -1%             2010              2011                 2012E       2013E
                                                                             Russia                        USA               Europe
                                                                             OECD                          Developing Asia   Latin America
   Emerging markets are working
     ‐ Unemployment in emerging markets generally             Source: IMF, OECD data and forecast

       lower than developed markets
     ‐ Russia boasted a moderate unemployment rate of       Real consumption growth forecast
       5.2% in August 2012                                  12%

                                                            10%

   Inflation is under control                              8%
     ‐ Russia’s inflation rate of 4.6% for January-August
                                                            6%                                                5.2%
       2012                                                                       4.8%
                                                            4%                                                                   4.4%

                                                            2%

                                                            0%
                                                                                2011                       2012E             2013E
                                                            -2%                    USA                       Russia            Europe   5
                                                                                   Brazil                    China             India
                                                                  Source: Citi Bank
Russia: budgetary discipline and ample reserves

Russian Central Bank international reserves (USD bln)*                                                Fiscal balance (% of GDP)**
                                                                                                      4%
600
                                                                                       530*
500                                                                                                   2%
                                                                             483 511
                                                                  448                                 0%
400                                                       464 456
                                                                                                                       2011                        2012E                        2013E
300                                             289                                                   -2%
                                          168
200                                     117                                                           -4%
                                   68
100                         48
              28      37
                                                                                                      -6%
   0
        2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012                              -8%            Europe            USA            Russia           China             Brazil

          Source: Russian Central Bank; *as of October 2012                                                 Source: Citi Bank




World reserves of foreign exchange and gold as of 2011                                                 Russia has budgetary discipline
                                                                                                         – Minimal government budget deficit as a % of GDP
  Country                        Foreign exchange and gold reserves, USD bln
                                                                                                           compared to developed world and BRIC countries
  China                                                  3,236
  Japan                                                  1,259
  EU                                                      813
  Russia                                                  499
                                                                                                       Russia has substantial international reserves*
                                                                                                         – ≈$530 bln in international reserves as of October 2012
  Brazil                                                  352
                                                                                                         – 19-fold increase since 2000
  India                                                   298
                                                                                                         – Trending upward
          Source: CIA World Factbook

                                                                                                                                                                                            6
*Includes hard-currency reserves, gold, IMF , supplementary foreign exchange reserves held with IMF     **The balance of a government's tax revenues, plus any proceeds from asset sales, less
                                                                                                        government spending
Russia: low indebtedness

                                                         Government debt (% of GDP)

                                                         120%                                                             112%
                                                                   103%                       107%
                                                         100%                                        94%                     94%
   Among leading global economic                                      87%
                                                          80%
    regions, Russia boasts low                                                69%                          69%                       69%
                                                                                  54%                        54%                        55%
    government debt                                       60%
     ‐ Russia has a very low government debt as a %       40%
       of GDP in comparison with the USA and
                                                                                       15%                        16%                        16%
       Europe                                             20%
                                                                                         8%                         9%                         8%
     ‐ Debt level to remain stable
                                                           0%
                                                                            2011                        2012E                       2013E
                                                                          USA    Europe             India     Brazil        China        Russia
                                                                   Source: Citi Bank


                                                         Household debt (% of GDP)

                                                                  0%             20%               40%            60%            80%               100%

   Household resilience                                    UK                                                                                      98%
     ‐ Russian households are virtually unleveraged,        US                                                                               88%
       in particular when compared to household          Spain                                                                         82%
       debt in Western markets                           Japan                                                             68%
     ‐ Russia has the lowest household debt among      Germany                                                      59%
       the BRIC countries                               France                                              49%
                                                          Italy                                            46%
                                                         China                               29%
                                                         Brazil                  15%
                                                          India            9%                                                                  7
                                                         Russia           8%
                                                                   Source: McKinsey, 2012
Russia: Sovereign ratings fail to reflect economic reality




   Unlike developed market peers,                              S&P
                                                                                   Gov’t debt    GDP
                                                                                                          Current
                                                                                                                      Gov’t debt     GDP
                                                               rating/                                     S&P
    merging market governments have          Country
                                                               outlook
                                                                                      2007      Growth
                                                                                                          rating/
                                                                                                                        2012F      Growth
    maintained debt levels while adjusting                                         (% of GDP)    2007                 (% of GDP)    2012F
                                                                2007                                      outlook
    to lower-growth environments             Germany         AAA/stable               65%        3.3%    AAA/stable      83%        0.9%

   Russian sovereign ratings, although      USA             AAA/stable               69%        1.9%     AA+/neg       107%        2.2%
    investment grade, remain relatively
                                             Spain           AAA/stable               46%        3.5%    BBB+/neg        91%       -1.5%
    low compared to the developed
    countries despite a demonstrable         Italy            A+/stable               95%        1.7%    BBB+/neg       129%       -2.3%
    track record of:
     ‐   Strong hard currency reserves
     ‐   Budgetary discipline
                                             China            A/positive              20%       14.2%    AA-/stable      16%        7.8%
     ‐   Low household indebtedness
     ‐   Low governmental indebtedness       Russia           BBB+/pos                7%         8.5%    BBB/stable      9%         3.7%

   Since before the crisis, S&P has         Brazil            BB+/pos                55%        6.1%    BBB/stable      54%        1.5%
    actually reduced the sovereign debt
                                             India          BBB-/stable               79%        9.8%    BBB-/neg        69%        4.9%
    rating for Russia despite stable GDP
                                             Source of forecasts: IMF, Citi bank
    growth and fiscal discipline




                                                                                                                                    8
Russia: corporate credit ratings lagging


                                 S&P credit ratings of leading telecommunications companies Post-Crisis 2009 – 2011
                                                                                            Net Debt/
   Rating agencies continue                          S&P credit              FCF
                                                                                              LTM
                                                                                                         Current S&P          FCF       Net Debt/
    to attach too much risk to    Company           rating/outlook        (USD mln)*                    credit rating/    (USD mln)*   LTM OIBDA
                                                                                             OIBDA
                                                         2009                2009                          outlook           2011         2011
    Russian issuers despite                                                                   2009
    profitable growth, stable     Telecom
                                                       BBB/stable             1,296              3.1    BBB/negative         3,361        2.3
                                  Italia
    cash flows and low debt
                                  Bharti              BBB-/stable             -304              0.4x     BB+/stable          1,508        3.1x
    levels
                                  Portugal
                                                       BBB/stable             1,084             2.4x    BB+/negative          987         2.9x
                                  Telecom

                                  MTS                  BB/stable              1,264             1.2x     BB/stable           1,265        1.3x




   Russian companies            Multiples of leading publicly traded telecommunications companies
    remain undervalued                               EV/EBITDA               P/E           EV/EBITDA         P/E
                                                                                                                           Revenue      OIBDA
    compared to other EM          Company                                                                                Growth 2009    margin
                                                       2009                 2009             2012           2012
                                                                                                                           – 2012E      2012E
    and European ‘problem’
                                  Vodacom                5.1x              10.9x                6.8x       13.1x            19%          35%
    market peers despite
    stronger or comparable        Turkcell               4.8x              11.7x                5.4x       12.1x            13%          31%
    growth prospects, higher      Portugal
    profitability, stable FCF                            4.8x               7.4x                5.0x       12.0x            stable       33%
                                  Telecom
    generation and a stronger     MTS                    4.6x              14.7x                4.4x        9.8x            15%         41-42%
    balance sheet
                                 Source: Goldman Sachs. FCF is calculated as OPCF minus Capex
                                                                                                                                                9
Russia: volatile stock market

                                                   Russian RTS Index dynamics vs. other stock markets
                                                   120

                                                   100
   Russian stock market is vulnerable to
                                                    80
    global turmoil, as the major capital
    investments come from abroad                    60

                                                    40

                                                    20




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                                                           RTS                          FTSE100                                  DJI                       S&P500                            Bovespa                             Nikkei225                                   Hang Seng


                                                   Capital outflow from Russia during 2008 crisis

   At the end of 2008 major capital                14%

    outflows from the Russian market                12%
                                                    10%
    were recorded
     ‐ Russia places no restrictions on capital;     8%
       minimal currency and FOREX controls           6%
       enable capital to move freely in and out      4%
       of the Russian market                         2%
                                                     0%
                                                                                      Jul-07




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                                                                                                        Russia as % of MSCI                                                       Allocation of GEM funds to Russia                                                                10
                                                    Source: HSBC
Contents




                    MTS at a glance
  Emerging confidence in emerging
                          markets
Russia: local liquidity and financing   ▪   Emergence of local liquidity and financing
                                        ▪   Growth in financing
                                        ▪   Increase in local funds borrowing
                                        ▪   Growth in financing: supporting CAPEX
                                        ▪   MTS migrates debt portfolio from USD to RUB
                                        ▪   MTS optimizes repayment schedule




                                                                                          11
Russia: emergence of local liquidity and financing


                                                            Interest rate of CBRF operations
   Since 2009, the Central Bank of Russia has
                                                                 %                   Mosprime               CB Repo            Ref Rate           CPI %
    taken leading role in stimulating local capital         24                                                                                         24
    markets                                                 22                                                                                         22
                                                            20                                                                                         20
     ‐ Liquidity support has enabled Russian
                                                            18                                                                                         18
       corporates to take advantage of reasonable           16                                                                                         16
       borrowing rates through multiple debt                14                                                                                         14
       instruments                                          12                                                                                         12
     ‐ Capital infusion has attracted other investors       10                                                                                         10
       and enabled leading banks to increase their           8                                                                                         8
       credit portfolios                                     6                                                                                         6
                                                             4                                                                                         4
     ‐ Emergence of local markets enabled many
                                                             2                                                                                         2
       leading Russian corporates to access credit           0                                                                                         0
       when Western markets were frozen                       06.08 12.08 06.09 12.09 06.10 12.10 06.11 12.11 06.12
                                                             Source: CBRF, GKS

   Key factors impacting Central Bank decisions            CBRF balance for liquidity
     ‐ CPI growth rates vs. forecast                             RUB bln                                                                      RUB bln
     ‐ Risks of an economic slowdown                         900                                                                                      900
                                                             700                                                                                      700
     ‐ Control of interest rates and forex volatility
                                                             500                                                                                      500
                                                             300                                                                                      300
   Central Bank increases volume of refinancing             100                                                                                      100
                                                            -100                                                                                      -100
     ‐ Current volume of refinancing reaches RUB 2.5        -300
                                                                06.08   12.08    06.09     12.09    06.10     12.10    06.11     12.11    06.12
                                                                                                                                                      -300
       trillion                                             -500                                                                                      -500
     ‐ More than 1.5-fold potential increase is             -700                                                                                      -700
                                                            -900                                                                                      -900
       announced                                          -1 100                                                                                      -1100
     ‐ The largest volume of liquidity provided is        -1 300                                                                                      -1300
       offered on the weekly repo auctions, which         -1 500                                                                                      -1500

       volumes have increased substantially in the last     Source: CBRF
       year                                                 Balance of transactions is calculated as a net worth between Bank of Russia liabilities to the
                                                            banking sector and Bank of Russia claims on the banking sector
                                                                                                                                                              12
Growth in financing

                                                    Volume of assets of typical Russian bank
                                                     mln RUB
   Russian banks are increasing in size and        1 600 000                                                  01.01.2008
    scope to service various sectors of economy     1 400 000                                                  01.01.2009
                                                    1 200 000                                                  01.01.2010
   Sustained volume of lending to companies
                                                    1 000 000                                                  01.01.2011
    of various sizes and individuals
     ‐ 40% growth rate in 2011                        800 000                                                  01.01.2012
                                                      600 000                                                  01.09.2012
   Significant gap between large and small           400 000
    banks reflect:                                    200 000
     ‐ Capital-intensity of Russian economy (e.g.               0
       oil/gas, metals/mining and infrastructure                     Biggest           Medium              Small
       sectors prominent)                           Source: CBRF

     ‐ Consolidation in marketplace
     ‐ Expansion of consumer credit                 Average4Q 2012 short-term loans extended by Russian credit
                                                              rates on
                                                    institutions
                                                           %                                                       %
   Assets growth of large banks is 2-3 times       18                            in USD       in EUR   in RUB         18
    higher than that of medium and small banks      16                                                                 16
                                                    14                                                                 14
                                                    12                                                                 12
   Competition and broader liquidity pool          10                                                                 10
    steadily driving rates downward                  8                                                                 8
                                                     6                                                                 6
                                                     4                                                                 4
                                                     2                                                                 2
                                                     0                                                                 0
                                                         2008       2009       2010        2011         2012
                                                    Source: CBRF                                                    13
Increase in local funds borrowing

                                                              Volume of corporate and private loans, RUB trl
   Credit volumes are growing at high rates         40                         +12%                 +39%                 +16%*
                                                                                                                 0.1
   In years prior to 2008 global financial          30                                                          5.3
    crisis, Russian corporates began looking                             0.1
                                                                                            0.1                  3.0                  0.1
    at the developing ruble bond market for          20                  2.5
                                                                                            3.5                                       4.5
                                                                                            2.7                                       1.7
    funding                                                              3.3
                                                                                                                 25.4
                                                     10                                     18.0
                                                                      15.8                                                            17.1
   Liquidity issues abroad have heightened
    interest in Ruble-based bonds since 2009             0
                                                                      2009                  2010                 2011              Sep 2012
                                                                   Legal Entities in RUB                      Legal Entities in Foreign Currency
   Though markets are fickle like in the                          Individuals in RUB                         Individuals in Foreign Currency
    West, ruble bonds are increasingly being                   *Compared to September 2011; Source: CBRF

    used to finance Russian corporates                        Volume of corporate bonds, RUB bln
                                                   160                                                                                                  160
   Overall the Russian bond market has            140                                                                                                  140
    made corporates less depending on              120
                                                                                                      +36%
                                                                                                                                                        120
    Western markets and provide access to
                                                   100                                                                                                  100
    liquidity to meet the needs of local
                                               bln USD




                                                                                                                                                             bln USD
                                                         80                                                                                             80
    companies                                                                                                 +141%
                                                         60                                                                                             60
                                                         40                                                                                             40
                                                         20                                            RuBonds              Eurobonds                   20
                                                         0                                                                                              0
                                                               03.2009     09.2009     03.2010     09.2010   03.2011    09.2011   03.2012     09.2012
                                                               Source: Cbonds agency
                                                                                                                                                   14
Growth in financing: supporting CAPEX

                                                  Capital of typical Russian bank
   Increasing asset base, government support                mln RUB
    and more local lending have enabled small,                                                                  01.01.2008
                                                 180 000
    medium and large Russian banks to increase                                                                  01.01.2009
                                                 150 000
    their capital base                                                                                          01.01.2010
                                                 120 000                                                        01.01.2011
                                                  90 000                                                        01.01.2012
   Capital growth rates of Russian banks         60 000
                                                                                                                01.09.2012
    exceeded volumes of lending growth rates
                                                  30 000
    during 2009-2011
                                                        0
                                                                     Biggest                  Medium            Smallest
                                                  Source: CBRF


                                                             4Q 2012
                                                  Corporate investments (fixed assets) in Russia (RUB trl)

   Investments in fixed assets in Russia have    12                                                        10.8           +5.5%
    been increasing steadily since 2009 driven    10                       8.7
                                                                                                   9.2
                                                                                        7.9
    by more funding on better terms available      8         6.6
    on the internal market                         6
                                                   4
                                                   2
                                                   0
                                                            2007         2008         2009        2010   2011        2012E

                                                  Source: GKS, Ministry of Economic Development                                    15
Example: MTS migrates debt portfolio from USD to RUB


                                                               Currency distribution as of FY2008
   From 2008 until now, MTS has migrated its
    primary debt currency from USD to RUB                                               RUB
                                                            EUR                           20%
                                                                       11%
   The company has utilized bilateral facilities,                                                    69%
    ECA-backed facilities, Eurobonds and hedging
    to more closely align its debt portfolio to its
    primary currency of revenue                                                                              USD
                                                                               Duration: 2.9 years



   At the same time, the Company has                          Currency distribution as of Q3 2012*
    succeeded in increase the duration of its
    financing and lowering its average cost of
                                                                 EUR                                               RUB
    debt                                                                  3%
                                                                                                             76%
                                                                    21%


                                                            USD

                                                                               Duration: 3.8 years



                                                                                                                         16
                                                      *Including Forex hedging in the amount of $300 mln as of Q3 2012
Example: MTS optimizes repayment schedule


                               Repayment of major debt instruments since 2009
   MTS’s debt payment               RUB
    schedule now features            EUR
    multiple instruments             USD
                                                                                                             56 bln
    predominantly in                                     $238 mln
    rubles to match debt            $630      $300 mln
    with currency of                                         $360       $413        $162 mln      $400                      18 bln          $400
                                    mln
                                                             mln        mln                       mln                                       mln
    primary revenue and               ING    Gazprombank     ING       EBRD, EIB,       ING      Eurobond    Sberbank Gazprombank Eurobond
    cash generation,              syndicated             syndicated       NIB       syndicated
                                     loan                   loan                       loan
    optimize borrowing
    costs, increase tenor                  2009                                      2010                                            2012
    and maximize flexibility
    in the management of
    the Company’s debt         Debt repayment schedule as of Q3 2012 (USD mln)
    portfolio
                                                                                      730
                                                                                       730            58              323
                                                                                                                      323
                                                                                                                                        7
                                                                                     1079            1079          1079
                                                     325                                             1 278         1 221
                                                       325            440            1 281                                             750
                                                     136               440                                                             750
                                       2
                                                       454
                                                     318              246             202            199                          85
                                      93                               247                                            142        92
                                    Q4 2012         2013           2014              2015            2016          2017       Thereafter
                                        Loans in other currencies (USD/EUR)          Eurobond        Loans in rubles    Ruble bonds
                                                                                                                                              17

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201201017 cfo summit

  • 1. Reassessing Risk in Russia: Emerging Confidence in Emerging Markets 5th CFO Summit Emerging Europe & CIS October 17, 2012 Alexey Kornya, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
  • 2. Contents MTS at a glance ▪ MTS at a glance Emerging confidence in emerging markets Russia: local liquidity and financing 2
  • 3. MTS at a glance +34%  The leading telecommunications provider in Total Group 11 293.2 12 318.7 13 181.0 9 867.3 Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent Revenue States (CIS) (USD mln)  MTS one of the BRANDZ™ Top 100 Most 2009 2010 2011 2012E Powerful Brands ‐ MTS included in the ranking in 2008, 2009, 2010, 108.1 Total 106.1 2011 and 2012 Subscribers* 105.6 ‐ 85th brand overall with a brand value of $9.5 bln 102.4 (millions)  Level III ADRs (NYSE:MBT) have been publicly 2009 2010 2011 Q2 2012 traded on the New York Stock Exchange since June 2000 Subscribers, Russia 2009 2010 2011 Q2 2012  MTS is majority-owned by Sistema JSFC Mobile (millions) 69.3 71.4 70.0 69.6 (LSE:SSA), the largest diversified public HH passed, 000s 7 502 9 890 11 433 11 507 financial corporation BB Internet, 000s 1 298 1 805 2 152 2 285 in Russia and the CIS Pay TV, 000s 1 762 2 580 2 987 2 937 *Including subscribers of Mobile TeleSystems LLC, a mobile operator in Belarus, in which MTS owns a 49% stake and CDMA subscribers in Ukraine. 3
  • 4. Contents MTS at a glance Emerging confidence in emerging ▪ Emerging markets are drivers of economic growth markets ▪ Budgetary discipline and ample reserves ▪ Low indebtedness Russia: local liquidity and financing ▪ Sovereign ratings fail to reflect economic reality ▪ Corporate credit ratings lagging ▪ Volatile stock market 4
  • 5. Emerging markets are drivers of economic growth GDP growth forecast 11%  Emerging markets are growing and consuming ‐ IMF forecasts about 4% GDP growth for 2012-2013 9% in Russia 7% ‐ Higher growth rates in developing Asia 5% 4.3% 4.3% 3.8% ‐ Consumption growth in BRIC markets markedly 3.7% higher than developing markets 3% ‐ Russian market characterized by moderate growth and high disposable income 1% -1% 2010 2011 2012E 2013E Russia USA Europe OECD Developing Asia Latin America  Emerging markets are working ‐ Unemployment in emerging markets generally Source: IMF, OECD data and forecast lower than developed markets ‐ Russia boasted a moderate unemployment rate of Real consumption growth forecast 5.2% in August 2012 12% 10%  Inflation is under control 8% ‐ Russia’s inflation rate of 4.6% for January-August 6% 5.2% 2012 4.8% 4% 4.4% 2% 0% 2011 2012E 2013E -2% USA Russia Europe 5 Brazil China India Source: Citi Bank
  • 6. Russia: budgetary discipline and ample reserves Russian Central Bank international reserves (USD bln)* Fiscal balance (% of GDP)** 4% 600 530* 500 2% 483 511 448 0% 400 464 456 2011 2012E 2013E 300 289 -2% 168 200 117 -4% 68 100 48 28 37 -6% 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -8% Europe USA Russia China Brazil Source: Russian Central Bank; *as of October 2012 Source: Citi Bank World reserves of foreign exchange and gold as of 2011  Russia has budgetary discipline – Minimal government budget deficit as a % of GDP Country Foreign exchange and gold reserves, USD bln compared to developed world and BRIC countries China 3,236 Japan 1,259 EU 813 Russia 499  Russia has substantial international reserves* – ≈$530 bln in international reserves as of October 2012 Brazil 352 – 19-fold increase since 2000 India 298 – Trending upward Source: CIA World Factbook 6 *Includes hard-currency reserves, gold, IMF , supplementary foreign exchange reserves held with IMF **The balance of a government's tax revenues, plus any proceeds from asset sales, less government spending
  • 7. Russia: low indebtedness Government debt (% of GDP) 120% 112% 103% 107% 100% 94% 94%  Among leading global economic 87% 80% regions, Russia boasts low 69% 69% 69% 54% 54% 55% government debt 60% ‐ Russia has a very low government debt as a % 40% of GDP in comparison with the USA and 15% 16% 16% Europe 20% 8% 9% 8% ‐ Debt level to remain stable 0% 2011 2012E 2013E USA Europe India Brazil China Russia Source: Citi Bank Household debt (% of GDP) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%  Household resilience UK 98% ‐ Russian households are virtually unleveraged, US 88% in particular when compared to household Spain 82% debt in Western markets Japan 68% ‐ Russia has the lowest household debt among Germany 59% the BRIC countries France 49% Italy 46% China 29% Brazil 15% India 9% 7 Russia 8% Source: McKinsey, 2012
  • 8. Russia: Sovereign ratings fail to reflect economic reality  Unlike developed market peers, S&P Gov’t debt GDP Current Gov’t debt GDP rating/ S&P merging market governments have Country outlook 2007 Growth rating/ 2012F Growth maintained debt levels while adjusting (% of GDP) 2007 (% of GDP) 2012F 2007 outlook to lower-growth environments Germany AAA/stable 65% 3.3% AAA/stable 83% 0.9%  Russian sovereign ratings, although USA AAA/stable 69% 1.9% AA+/neg 107% 2.2% investment grade, remain relatively Spain AAA/stable 46% 3.5% BBB+/neg 91% -1.5% low compared to the developed countries despite a demonstrable Italy A+/stable 95% 1.7% BBB+/neg 129% -2.3% track record of: ‐ Strong hard currency reserves ‐ Budgetary discipline China A/positive 20% 14.2% AA-/stable 16% 7.8% ‐ Low household indebtedness ‐ Low governmental indebtedness Russia BBB+/pos 7% 8.5% BBB/stable 9% 3.7%  Since before the crisis, S&P has Brazil BB+/pos 55% 6.1% BBB/stable 54% 1.5% actually reduced the sovereign debt India BBB-/stable 79% 9.8% BBB-/neg 69% 4.9% rating for Russia despite stable GDP Source of forecasts: IMF, Citi bank growth and fiscal discipline 8
  • 9. Russia: corporate credit ratings lagging S&P credit ratings of leading telecommunications companies Post-Crisis 2009 – 2011 Net Debt/  Rating agencies continue S&P credit FCF LTM Current S&P FCF Net Debt/ to attach too much risk to Company rating/outlook (USD mln)* credit rating/ (USD mln)* LTM OIBDA OIBDA 2009 2009 outlook 2011 2011 Russian issuers despite 2009 profitable growth, stable Telecom BBB/stable 1,296 3.1 BBB/negative 3,361 2.3 Italia cash flows and low debt Bharti BBB-/stable -304 0.4x BB+/stable 1,508 3.1x levels Portugal BBB/stable 1,084 2.4x BB+/negative 987 2.9x Telecom MTS BB/stable 1,264 1.2x BB/stable 1,265 1.3x  Russian companies Multiples of leading publicly traded telecommunications companies remain undervalued EV/EBITDA P/E EV/EBITDA P/E Revenue OIBDA compared to other EM Company Growth 2009 margin 2009 2009 2012 2012 – 2012E 2012E and European ‘problem’ Vodacom 5.1x 10.9x 6.8x 13.1x 19% 35% market peers despite stronger or comparable Turkcell 4.8x 11.7x 5.4x 12.1x 13% 31% growth prospects, higher Portugal profitability, stable FCF 4.8x 7.4x 5.0x 12.0x stable 33% Telecom generation and a stronger MTS 4.6x 14.7x 4.4x 9.8x 15% 41-42% balance sheet Source: Goldman Sachs. FCF is calculated as OPCF minus Capex 9
  • 10. Russia: volatile stock market Russian RTS Index dynamics vs. other stock markets 120 100  Russian stock market is vulnerable to 80 global turmoil, as the major capital investments come from abroad 60 40 20 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 RTS FTSE100 DJI S&P500 Bovespa Nikkei225 Hang Seng Capital outflow from Russia during 2008 crisis  At the end of 2008 major capital 14% outflows from the Russian market 12% 10% were recorded ‐ Russia places no restrictions on capital; 8% minimal currency and FOREX controls 6% enable capital to move freely in and out 4% of the Russian market 2% 0% Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Russia as % of MSCI Allocation of GEM funds to Russia 10 Source: HSBC
  • 11. Contents MTS at a glance Emerging confidence in emerging markets Russia: local liquidity and financing ▪ Emergence of local liquidity and financing ▪ Growth in financing ▪ Increase in local funds borrowing ▪ Growth in financing: supporting CAPEX ▪ MTS migrates debt portfolio from USD to RUB ▪ MTS optimizes repayment schedule 11
  • 12. Russia: emergence of local liquidity and financing Interest rate of CBRF operations  Since 2009, the Central Bank of Russia has % Mosprime CB Repo Ref Rate CPI % taken leading role in stimulating local capital 24 24 markets 22 22 20 20 ‐ Liquidity support has enabled Russian 18 18 corporates to take advantage of reasonable 16 16 borrowing rates through multiple debt 14 14 instruments 12 12 ‐ Capital infusion has attracted other investors 10 10 and enabled leading banks to increase their 8 8 credit portfolios 6 6 4 4 ‐ Emergence of local markets enabled many 2 2 leading Russian corporates to access credit 0 0 when Western markets were frozen 06.08 12.08 06.09 12.09 06.10 12.10 06.11 12.11 06.12 Source: CBRF, GKS  Key factors impacting Central Bank decisions CBRF balance for liquidity ‐ CPI growth rates vs. forecast RUB bln RUB bln ‐ Risks of an economic slowdown 900 900 700 700 ‐ Control of interest rates and forex volatility 500 500 300 300  Central Bank increases volume of refinancing 100 100 -100 -100 ‐ Current volume of refinancing reaches RUB 2.5 -300 06.08 12.08 06.09 12.09 06.10 12.10 06.11 12.11 06.12 -300 trillion -500 -500 ‐ More than 1.5-fold potential increase is -700 -700 -900 -900 announced -1 100 -1100 ‐ The largest volume of liquidity provided is -1 300 -1300 offered on the weekly repo auctions, which -1 500 -1500 volumes have increased substantially in the last Source: CBRF year Balance of transactions is calculated as a net worth between Bank of Russia liabilities to the banking sector and Bank of Russia claims on the banking sector 12
  • 13. Growth in financing Volume of assets of typical Russian bank mln RUB  Russian banks are increasing in size and 1 600 000 01.01.2008 scope to service various sectors of economy 1 400 000 01.01.2009 1 200 000 01.01.2010  Sustained volume of lending to companies 1 000 000 01.01.2011 of various sizes and individuals ‐ 40% growth rate in 2011 800 000 01.01.2012 600 000 01.09.2012  Significant gap between large and small 400 000 banks reflect: 200 000 ‐ Capital-intensity of Russian economy (e.g. 0 oil/gas, metals/mining and infrastructure Biggest Medium Small sectors prominent) Source: CBRF ‐ Consolidation in marketplace ‐ Expansion of consumer credit Average4Q 2012 short-term loans extended by Russian credit rates on institutions % %  Assets growth of large banks is 2-3 times 18 in USD in EUR in RUB 18 higher than that of medium and small banks 16 16 14 14 12 12  Competition and broader liquidity pool 10 10 steadily driving rates downward 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: CBRF 13
  • 14. Increase in local funds borrowing Volume of corporate and private loans, RUB trl  Credit volumes are growing at high rates 40 +12% +39% +16%* 0.1  In years prior to 2008 global financial 30 5.3 crisis, Russian corporates began looking 0.1 0.1 3.0 0.1 at the developing ruble bond market for 20 2.5 3.5 4.5 2.7 1.7 funding 3.3 25.4 10 18.0 15.8 17.1  Liquidity issues abroad have heightened interest in Ruble-based bonds since 2009 0 2009 2010 2011 Sep 2012 Legal Entities in RUB Legal Entities in Foreign Currency  Though markets are fickle like in the Individuals in RUB Individuals in Foreign Currency West, ruble bonds are increasingly being *Compared to September 2011; Source: CBRF used to finance Russian corporates Volume of corporate bonds, RUB bln 160 160  Overall the Russian bond market has 140 140 made corporates less depending on 120 +36% 120 Western markets and provide access to 100 100 liquidity to meet the needs of local bln USD bln USD 80 80 companies +141% 60 60 40 40 20 RuBonds Eurobonds 20 0 0 03.2009 09.2009 03.2010 09.2010 03.2011 09.2011 03.2012 09.2012 Source: Cbonds agency 14
  • 15. Growth in financing: supporting CAPEX Capital of typical Russian bank  Increasing asset base, government support mln RUB and more local lending have enabled small, 01.01.2008 180 000 medium and large Russian banks to increase 01.01.2009 150 000 their capital base 01.01.2010 120 000 01.01.2011 90 000 01.01.2012  Capital growth rates of Russian banks 60 000 01.09.2012 exceeded volumes of lending growth rates 30 000 during 2009-2011 0 Biggest Medium Smallest Source: CBRF 4Q 2012 Corporate investments (fixed assets) in Russia (RUB trl)  Investments in fixed assets in Russia have 12 10.8 +5.5% been increasing steadily since 2009 driven 10 8.7 9.2 7.9 by more funding on better terms available 8 6.6 on the internal market 6 4 2 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E Source: GKS, Ministry of Economic Development 15
  • 16. Example: MTS migrates debt portfolio from USD to RUB Currency distribution as of FY2008  From 2008 until now, MTS has migrated its primary debt currency from USD to RUB RUB EUR 20% 11%  The company has utilized bilateral facilities, 69% ECA-backed facilities, Eurobonds and hedging to more closely align its debt portfolio to its primary currency of revenue USD Duration: 2.9 years  At the same time, the Company has Currency distribution as of Q3 2012* succeeded in increase the duration of its financing and lowering its average cost of EUR RUB debt 3% 76% 21% USD Duration: 3.8 years 16 *Including Forex hedging in the amount of $300 mln as of Q3 2012
  • 17. Example: MTS optimizes repayment schedule Repayment of major debt instruments since 2009  MTS’s debt payment RUB schedule now features EUR multiple instruments USD 56 bln predominantly in $238 mln rubles to match debt $630 $300 mln with currency of $360 $413 $162 mln $400 18 bln $400 mln mln mln mln mln primary revenue and ING Gazprombank ING EBRD, EIB, ING Eurobond Sberbank Gazprombank Eurobond cash generation, syndicated syndicated NIB syndicated loan loan loan optimize borrowing costs, increase tenor 2009 2010 2012 and maximize flexibility in the management of the Company’s debt Debt repayment schedule as of Q3 2012 (USD mln) portfolio 730 730 58 323 323 7 1079 1079 1079 325 1 278 1 221 325 440 1 281 750 136 440 750 2 454 318 246 202 199 85 93 247 142 92 Q4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Thereafter Loans in other currencies (USD/EUR) Eurobond Loans in rubles Ruble bonds 17