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Tuesday, May 24th
© Mark MacLeod 2011
SaaS Math
Mark MacLeod
Real Ventures
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Introduction
CFO
Advisor
Investor
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Agenda
Why I love SaaS
Metrics 101
Pricing Magic
Valuation
Q &A
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Why I love SaaS
and by “I”, I mean Investors
$ 21B Market
20% Growth
Certainty Premium
© Mark MacLeod 2011
SaaS Metrics 101
“In God we trust, all others bring data”
W. Edwards Deming
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Metrics for Pirates
Source: Metrics for Pirates - 500 Hats
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Metrics 101:
Where to focus,when...
1st battle - Acquisition
Release early,even if it sucks
Talk to users!
Test messaging,channels
Measure every action
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Metrics 101:
Where to focus,when...
Ultimate battle: Retention
Churn Rate is the most important metric
for SaaS businesses
© Mark MacLeod 2011
What to measure
Part 1 - The Funnel
Source: http://www.forentrepreneurs.com/saas-metrics/
© Mark MacLeod 2011
What to measure
Acquisition
Week over week Growth in:
New UniqueVisitors (Absolute)
New Users
Conversion Rates:
UV to Sign-Up
Changes in conversion rates
New vs. Returning
Which traffic sources work?
Performance vs. Target
© Mark MacLeod 2011
What to measure
Activation
Week over week Growth in:
New Activate Users
Conversion Rates:
New User to Active User
Changes in conversion rates
Which sources work best?
Performance vs Target
© Mark MacLeod 2011
What to measure
Retention - Active
Cohort Analyses: 30 / 60 / 90 days
Churn - 30 / 60 / 90
Change in churn
Stratify Users
Profile “Power” Users
Specific engagement metrics
(comments, likes, etc.)
© Mark MacLeod 2011
What to measure
Referral
K Factor -Viral Coefficient
Understand change in each key driver
© Mark MacLeod 2011
What to measure
Revenue
Conversion to Paid
ARPU & Changes in ARPU
Cohort Analyses: 30 / 60 / 90 days
Churn - 30 / 60 / 90
Change in churn
Reasons for cancellation
Exit interview?
Upgrade %
Source of paid users
© Mark MacLeod 2011
What to measure
Part 1I - Per User Economics
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Per User Economics
Elements:
Revenue Per Month (ARPU) * Life of a User
*
Margin %
Less
Cost of Acquisition (CAC)
=
Customer LifetimeValue (CLTV)
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Impact of Churn
Source: http://www.forentrepreneurs.com/saas-metrics/
At $5/ month
Lifetime
Revenue
Low - $100
High - $500
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC)
Elements:
Staff Costs (salaries)
SEM, paid programs
PR
Travel, conferences, etc.
Calculation Methods:
Basic: No salaries
Loaded:With Salaries
Gross: Before churn
Net:After churn
© Mark MacLeod 2011
CAC
How Much should you spend?
Depends on churn
Target 6 months’ revenue or less
Be willing to spend up to marginal CLTV
© Mark MacLeod 2011
How To Measure
Custom Built
© Mark MacLeod 2011
How To Measure
Off the Shelf
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Example
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Example
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Pricing
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Elements of Your Pricing Decision
Value Proposition - Hard ($) vs. Soft (time)
Positioning
Target customer - Consumer, Business
Comparables
How you sell?
Acquisition Cost
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Pricing Examples
$ 10 $ 20 $ 49 $ 24
$ 20 $ 30 $ 250 $ 25 ++
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Freemium
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Freemium
Necessary Conditions:
Large market
Incremental Cost to serve = $0
Clear upgrade Path
Funding $
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Freemium
Why freemium?
Reduce barriers to try
Disrupt the market
Network effects
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Freemium
Freemium Types
Direct: Premium version
Indirect:Access the user base (ads, subscriptions)
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Case Study: Freshbooks
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Case Study: Mint.com
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Annual Prepay
Offer Discounts for Prepayment
© Mark MacLeod 2011
SaaS Valuations
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Early Stage Valuations
Not Numbers Driven
Factors:
Team
Track Record
Traction
Opportunity Size
Deal Competition
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Late Stage Valuations
Source: Software Equity Group, L.L.C
© Mark MacLeod 2011
Winning at SaaS
Keep it Simple - Focus on a single benefit
Talk to users
Measure everything
Don’t be afraid to charge
Service, service, service
© Mark MacLeod 2011
q & a
Questions?
© Mark MacLeod 2011
thank you
mark macleod
twitter: @startupcfo
blog: startupcfo.ca
web: realventures.com
about.me/markmacleod

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SaaS Math - MaRS Best Practices Series

  • 2. © Mark MacLeod 2011 SaaS Math Mark MacLeod Real Ventures
  • 3. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Introduction CFO Advisor Investor
  • 4. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Agenda Why I love SaaS Metrics 101 Pricing Magic Valuation Q &A
  • 5. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Why I love SaaS and by “I”, I mean Investors $ 21B Market 20% Growth Certainty Premium
  • 6. © Mark MacLeod 2011 SaaS Metrics 101 “In God we trust, all others bring data” W. Edwards Deming
  • 7. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Metrics for Pirates Source: Metrics for Pirates - 500 Hats
  • 8. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Metrics 101: Where to focus,when... 1st battle - Acquisition Release early,even if it sucks Talk to users! Test messaging,channels Measure every action
  • 9. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Metrics 101: Where to focus,when... Ultimate battle: Retention Churn Rate is the most important metric for SaaS businesses
  • 10. © Mark MacLeod 2011 What to measure Part 1 - The Funnel Source: http://www.forentrepreneurs.com/saas-metrics/
  • 11. © Mark MacLeod 2011 What to measure Acquisition Week over week Growth in: New UniqueVisitors (Absolute) New Users Conversion Rates: UV to Sign-Up Changes in conversion rates New vs. Returning Which traffic sources work? Performance vs. Target
  • 12. © Mark MacLeod 2011 What to measure Activation Week over week Growth in: New Activate Users Conversion Rates: New User to Active User Changes in conversion rates Which sources work best? Performance vs Target
  • 13. © Mark MacLeod 2011 What to measure Retention - Active Cohort Analyses: 30 / 60 / 90 days Churn - 30 / 60 / 90 Change in churn Stratify Users Profile “Power” Users Specific engagement metrics (comments, likes, etc.)
  • 14. © Mark MacLeod 2011 What to measure Referral K Factor -Viral Coefficient Understand change in each key driver
  • 15. © Mark MacLeod 2011 What to measure Revenue Conversion to Paid ARPU & Changes in ARPU Cohort Analyses: 30 / 60 / 90 days Churn - 30 / 60 / 90 Change in churn Reasons for cancellation Exit interview? Upgrade % Source of paid users
  • 16. © Mark MacLeod 2011 What to measure Part 1I - Per User Economics
  • 17. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Per User Economics Elements: Revenue Per Month (ARPU) * Life of a User * Margin % Less Cost of Acquisition (CAC) = Customer LifetimeValue (CLTV)
  • 18. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Impact of Churn Source: http://www.forentrepreneurs.com/saas-metrics/ At $5/ month Lifetime Revenue Low - $100 High - $500
  • 19. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC) Elements: Staff Costs (salaries) SEM, paid programs PR Travel, conferences, etc. Calculation Methods: Basic: No salaries Loaded:With Salaries Gross: Before churn Net:After churn
  • 20. © Mark MacLeod 2011 CAC How Much should you spend? Depends on churn Target 6 months’ revenue or less Be willing to spend up to marginal CLTV
  • 21. © Mark MacLeod 2011 How To Measure Custom Built
  • 22. © Mark MacLeod 2011 How To Measure Off the Shelf
  • 23. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Example
  • 24. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Example
  • 25. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Pricing
  • 26. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Elements of Your Pricing Decision Value Proposition - Hard ($) vs. Soft (time) Positioning Target customer - Consumer, Business Comparables How you sell? Acquisition Cost
  • 27. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Pricing Examples $ 10 $ 20 $ 49 $ 24 $ 20 $ 30 $ 250 $ 25 ++
  • 28. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Freemium
  • 29. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Freemium Necessary Conditions: Large market Incremental Cost to serve = $0 Clear upgrade Path Funding $
  • 30. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Freemium Why freemium? Reduce barriers to try Disrupt the market Network effects
  • 31. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Freemium Freemium Types Direct: Premium version Indirect:Access the user base (ads, subscriptions)
  • 32. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Case Study: Freshbooks
  • 33. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Case Study: Mint.com
  • 34. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Annual Prepay Offer Discounts for Prepayment
  • 35. © Mark MacLeod 2011 SaaS Valuations
  • 36. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Early Stage Valuations Not Numbers Driven Factors: Team Track Record Traction Opportunity Size Deal Competition
  • 37. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Late Stage Valuations Source: Software Equity Group, L.L.C
  • 38. © Mark MacLeod 2011 Winning at SaaS Keep it Simple - Focus on a single benefit Talk to users Measure everything Don’t be afraid to charge Service, service, service
  • 39. © Mark MacLeod 2011 q & a Questions?
  • 40. © Mark MacLeod 2011 thank you mark macleod twitter: @startupcfo blog: startupcfo.ca web: realventures.com about.me/markmacleod