Contenu connexe Similaire à Slides from IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report (20) Plus de Marcellus Drilling News (20) Slides from IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report1. l h l d ilPlatts 6th Annual Crude Oil
Summit
London, 14 May 2013
© OECD/IEA 2013© OECD/IEA 2013
2. A pivotal time in oil markets
7.0
mb/d Medium-Term Oil Market Balance
4.0
5.0
6.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
-1.0
0.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Implied OPEC Spare Capacity World Demand Growth World SupplyCapacity Growth
© OECD/IEA 2013
3. Demand: rise of the non-OECD region
Global Oil Demand Growth
7.5%
2.5%
5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
-5.0%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
OECD Non-OECD
© OECD/IEA 2013
4. Transport still drives oil use…
…but transport gas is around the corner
Global Road Transport Sector Gasoline Demand kb/dGlobal Road Transport Sector
60%
80%
100%
Gasoline Demand, kb/d
15 000
0%
20%
40%
10 000
0%
1990 2000 2010 2015 2018
Gasoline Diesel Natural gas LPG Others
5 000
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
OECD Non-OECD
© OECD/IEA 2013
5. US & Iraq lead supply growth
mb/d
Global Liquids Growth 2012-18
0.5
6.0
8.4
8
10
Crude US Light Tight Oil
NGLs Non-Conv
Biofuels Processing Gain
2.3
2.3
0 6
1.4
2.0
2.4
6.0
2
4
6
1.8
1.0
2.8
2.30.6
0
2
OPEC* Non-OPEC Total
* OPEC crude is capacity additionsO C c ude s capac ty add t o s
Global Refinery processing gains included in Non-OPEC
© OECD/IEA 2013
6. New trends in capital expenditures
Tight oil deepwater spending on the riseTight oil, deepwater spending on the rise
Annual Capex by Oil Type
500
600
80%
90%
100%
%)
Annual Capex by Oil Type
300
400
40%
50%
60%
70%
$Billion
e of Capex (%
Total Capex (RHS)
Other
Oil Sands
Deepwater
Tight Oil
100
200
0%
10%
20%
30%
$
Shar
22%
16%
7%
14%
-0%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: IEA Analysis of Rystad Energy. Oil deposits only.
© OECD/IEA 2013
7. Non-OPEC supply: West Side story
1 4
mb/d
Non-OPEC Supply - Yearly Change
0.6
1.0
1.4
-0.2
0.2
-1.0
-0.6
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
NAM LAM OECD EUR FSU China
Africa PG & Biofuels Other Non-OPEC Total
© OECD/IEA 2013
8. OPEC capacity growth hits hurdles
Growth now forecast at 1.75 mb/d, to 36.75 mb/d
mb/d Change in OPEC Crude Oil
0 4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
mb/d Change in OPEC Crude Oil
Production Capacity
0 6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
-0.8
-0.6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Iran Iraq
UAE Saudi Arabia
Oth T t l OPECOther Total OPEC
© OECD/IEA 2013
9. Mid. East leads OPEC capacity growth
Iraq, Saudi Arabia and UAE offset Iran decline
Incremental OPEC Crude
P d ti C it 2012 18
Lib
Nigeria
UAE
Angola
Iraq
Production Capacity 2012-18
E d
Qatar
Algeria
Kuwait
Venezuela
Libya
-1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Ecuador
mb/d
© OECD/IEA 2013
10. Biofuels supplies grow to 2.4 mb/d
2 5
mb/d
1.5
2.0
2.5
0 0
0.5
1.0
0.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Rest of Global Biofuels OECD EUR Biofuels
Brazil Biofuels US BiofuelsBrazil Biofuels US Biofuels
© OECD/IEA 2013
11. Rise of the non-OECD refining titans
Global CDU capacity seen up by 9.5 mb/d; refining
capacity gets more sophisticated
Regional Share of CDU Expansions
China
45%
Other
Asia
14%
Latin
America
14%14%
Middle
East
22%
Other
5%
© OECD/IEA 2013
China leads CDU additions
12. N. American refining: focus on
upgrading & desulpherisation
0.5
mb/d NorthAmerican Capacity Additions
0 2
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.2
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Crude Distillation Upgrading Desulphurisation
© OECD/IEA 2013
Latin America still an import magnet
13. Crude trade contracts, flows shift
Atlantic‐to‐Pacific trade edges upAtlantic‐to‐Pacific trade edges up
Crude Exports in 2018 and Growth in 2012-18 for Key Trade Routes*
(million barrels per day)
* E l d I t R i l T d* Excludes Intra-Regional Trade
OECD
Europe
0.3 (+0.1)
2.9
(-1.4)
3.1
(-0.6) 3.9
(-0.9)
0.3
(-0.8)
China
Europe
1.3
(-0.3)
1.4 (+0.7)
OECD
Pacific
0.7
(+0.3)
( )
North
America
( )
2.9
1.6 (0.3)
1.2 (+0.4)
-0.3
1.5
1.7 (+0.8)
6.2
(+0.8)
Other Asia
(-1)
0.5
(+0.4)
© OECD/IEA 2013
0.5
Red number in brackets denotes growth in period 2011-18 (+0)
14. N. American imports plunge
Origin of North American Crude Imports in 2012 and 2018
( )
1.1
0.3
2012
0.3
0.2
2018
(million barrels per day)
2.7
1.5
1.7
1.2
1.5
Middle East Latin America Africa Others Middle East Latin America Africa Others
© OECD/IEA 2013