Keynote - Who Will Win the Mobile Industry War by Richard Firminger, General Manager EMEA of Flurry Analytics at the NOAH 2012 Conference in London, Old Billingsgate on the 6th of November 2012.

1. November 2012!
Marketing in the Mobile First Era!
Richard Firminger, GM, EMEA!

2. Flurry Track Record!
Number 1 Mobile Reach !
Monthly Unique Users! 720M!
Number 1 Analytics!
Application Developers! 85K!
Applications! 240K!
Monthly Unique 60B!
Sessions!
Number 2 Ad Network !
Monthly Clips! 120M!

3. The Rise of Mobile Apps!
Flurry Sessions per Month!
Facebook vs. Social Apps
Billions
50
26
21 MINS
MINS
40
Web Apps
30 Web Browsing vs. Apps
20 74 81
MINS MINS
Web Apps
10
-
Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul
08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12

4. The Fastest Adopted Technology. Ever.!
iOS & Android devices vs. top technologies, 5 years after introduction!
!
2X 3X
!
10XFASTER than the FASTER than the FASTER than current
1980s PC REVOLUTION 1990s INTERNET BOOM 2000s SOCIAL NETWORKING
Sources: United States Census Bureau, International Telecommunication Union, Facebook, Flurry!

5. Addressable Market to Surpass 1 Billion Next Year!
Active smartphone & tablet devices!
Total Addressable Market!
Aggressive: 5B WW Mobile Device Owners!
Conservative: 2B WW Adults, Middle Class or higher!
1.1 B
Upside: !
Smartphones – dropping prices, especially Android!
Tablets – little replacement, mainly new; sub for PCs!
Connected TVs – to be shipped!
Reference:!
660 M
2.3 Billion Internet Subscribers today!
331 M
76 M
23 M
Aug 2009 Aug 2010 Aug 2011 Aug 2012 Aug 2013E
Source: Flurry Analytics!

6. Apps Are Disrupting the World!
Top Countries by Active iOS & Android Devices (millions)!
165
128
31 28 22 19 17 16 13 13
US China UK S. Korea Japan Germany France Canada Spain Brazil
Source: Flurry Analytics active devices July 2012!

7. Apps Are Disrupting Emerging Markets!
Fastest Growing iOS & Android Markets by Active Devices!
401%
279%
220% 217%
196% 193% 193% 189% 185% 171%
China Chile Brazil Argentina Iran Vietnam Mexico Russia Turkey India
Source: Flurry Analytics, July 2011 – July 2012, countries with at least 500k active devices as of July 2011!

8. Microsoft Blows by a Beleaguered Research in Motion!
Flurry New Project Starts, RIM vs. Microsoft!
!
6%
6%
WINDOWS PHONE BLACKBERRY
5%
4%
4%
3%
3% 3% 3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1% 1%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
1% 1% 1% 1%
1% 2% 1%
1% 1% 1%
1%
0%
Jun 2011 Jul 2011 Aug 2011 Sep 2011 Oct 2011 Nov 2011 Dec 2011 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012
Source:
Flurry
Analy/cs

9. Microsoft Sets Its Sights on Android!
Flurry New Project Starts Q2 2011 vs. Q2 2012!
1% 1% 3% 1%
27%
28%
71% 68%
Q2 2011 Q2 2012
iOS Android Windows Phone BlackBerry
Source:
Flurry
Analy/cs

10. Revenue Is Scaling!
WW iOS & Android App Revenue by Source!
!
Billions
$9
! ADVERTISING REVENUE
$8
PREMIUM & IAP REVENUE 23%
$7
$6
$5 18%
$4 77%
$3
82%
$2
$1
$-
2010 2012E
Source: Flurry Analytics, forecast based on Flurry analysis!

11. Mobile App Usage Overtook Online in 2011!
U.S. mobile apps vs. web consumption, minutes per day!
!
WEB BROWSING MOBILE APPS
94
81
MINUTES
70
66
74
MINUTES
72
64
MINUTES
MINUTES
MINUTES
MINUTES
MINUTES
43
MINUTES
June 2010 Dec 2010 June 2011 Dec 2011
Sources: comScore, Alexa, Flurry Analytics; data includes Smartphones & Tablets, U.S. only!

12. Mobile Apps Dominate Time Spent on Smartphones!
Share of time spent on smartphones!
!
More than
18.5%
Browser
80%
of mobile minutes
81.5% are spent in apps
Apps
Source: comScore, March 2012!

13. The App Audience Behaviour & Growth!

14. Mobile App Usage Is “Prime Time All the Time”!
Daypart comparison, people 15+ using medium in U.S.!
!
%
of
Audience
Share
70%
TELEVISION INTERNET iOS & ANDROID APPS
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am 12pm 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm 9pm 10pm 11pm 12am 1am 2am 3am 4am
Hour
of
Day
Sources:
TV
&
Internet
dayparts
from
analysis
by
Michael
Zimbalist
(2/10);
Nielsen
Na/onal
People
Meter;
comScore
Media
Metrix
Mobile
applica/on
daypart
from
analysis
by
Flurry
(8/11);
Flurry
Analy/cs,
n
=
15.2M
DAUs

15. Even Canabilising Prime Time TV Viewing!
Time spent using smart devices while watching TV!
1.61.6
HRS
HOURS
1.7
HOURS
84%
of mobile device
owners spend over
1.6 hours
per day using mobile
devices while watching TV
TABLET SMARTPHONE
OWNERS OWNERS
Sources:
OPA
/
Magid
Portrait
of
Today’s
Tablet
User
Wave
II,
July
2012;
Portrait
of
Today’s
Smartphone
User,
August
2012

16. Mobile Ad Spends Are Taking Off!

17. A Shift in Ad Spending Is Inevitable!
2011 U.S. ad spending vs. consumer time spent!
!
43%
40%
AD
SPEND
PER
MEDIA
TIME
SPENT
PER
MEDIA
29%
22%
23%
16%
11%
9%
6%
1%
TV
Print
Web
Radio
Mobile
Sources: VSS, Mary Meeker (KPCB), comScore, Alexa, Flurry Analytics!

18. Marketers Are Already Committed!
% of marketers in 2011 that planned to:!
Increase 2012 Mobile Ad Budget! 72%!
Increase Mobile Ad Budget!
BY OVER 50%! 35%!
Source: IAB / Ovum Marketer Perceptions Of Mobile Advertising July 2011!

19. Expect a Flood of Mobile Ad Spending!
Projection of U.S. mobile ad spending!
!
$10.9B
$8.7B
$6.5B
$4.3B
$2.6B
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source:
eMarketer
Jan
2012

20. Mobile App Media Maturing
TODAY OVER NEXT 12 MONTHS
Loosely-­‐targeted
Target
User
Interest,
Age,
Campaigns
Gender
and
Loca/on
Unable
to
Measure
Track
Conversion
Quality
and
Campaign
Effec/veness
Brand
Metrics
Impact
Fragmented
Media
Is
Purchase
at
Scale
via
Agency
Hard
to
Buy
Trading
Desks
and
Premium
Media
Representa/ves

21. Building a Successful App Is Hard
91%
%
of
Interbrand
Top
100
brands
with
apps
4%
%
of
Interbrand
Top
100
brands
in
top
100
app
ranking
(App
Store
UK)
Source:
App
Store
“Free”
Ranking
May
6,
2012,
Interbrand
Top
100
Global
Brands
of
2011,
Dis/mo

22. The App Download Is Only The First Battle!
Consumers
download
an
average
of
85
apps
But
use
only
5-­‐10
apps
in
a
given
week
Source:
Flurry
Analy/cs,
Jan
2012
–
March
2012

23. What Does App Retention Look Like?
iOS & Android App User Retention, Months Since Acquisition (%)
100%
38%
29%
24%
20%
16% 14%
11% 9% 7% 6% 5% 4%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Source:
Flurry
Analy/cs
&
Es/mates

24. The App Marketing Virtuous Cycle!

25. The New App Marketing Virtuous Cycle!
1. The
Current
State
of
App
Marke/ng
2. Can
We
Find
Another
Way?
3. The
New
App
Marke/ng
Virtuous
Cycle

26. Today App Marketing = App Store Rank!
• Buy
enough
thrust
to
get
into
orbit
(downloads
in
24
hours)
• Don’t
worry
about
the
quality
of
users
you’re
using
as
thrust
• Once
you
rank,
your
app
gets
an
organic
lio
• And
then,
when
you
run
the
numbers,
blended
CPA
is
“cheap”
• What’s
wrong
with
this
picture?

27. Fuel Prices Are Going Up!

28. Itʼs Already Expensive!
Rank
Required
Subsequent
1
150,000
180,000
Top
5
125,000
150,000
Top
10
100,000
125,000
Top
15
75,000
100,000
Top
25
50,000
75,000
Top
50
30,000
45,000
Required
=
number
of
downloads
required
in
24
hours
to
reach
posi9on
Subsequent
=
number
of
downloads
per
day
once
posi9on
is
reached

29. Competition for Consumers Continues to Increase!
Over 1 million available apps on iOS and Android!
600
GOOGLE PLAY iTUNES APP STORE
500
460
425
400
350
250 250
200
160
80
28 20
2
March 2009 December 2009 August 2010 May 2011 July 2011 October 2011 April 2012

30. Thanks!
richard@flurry.com!

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