What does the Future Hold for the Asian Economy, China and its Relationship with the West - Interview: Dr Parag Khanna, Andy Xie and Dr Dan Steinbock, APAC Investments Summit 2014.
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Interviews with Dr Parag Khanna, Andy Xie and Dr Dan Steinbock, speakers at the marcus evans APAC Investments Summit 2014, taking place in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 7 - 9 April 2014.
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What does the Future Hold for the Asian Economy, China and its Relationship with the West - Interview: Dr Parag Khanna, Andy Xie and Dr Dan Steinbock, APAC Investments Summit 2014.
1. APAC Investments Summit 2014
7 - 9 April 2014
executive perspectives
speakers from the APAC Investments Summit 2014 discuss…
What does the Future Hold for the Asian Economy,
China and its Relationship with the West?
Dr Parag Khanna, Geo-strategist, Author, Advisor
Both the 2014 and medium-term outlook for Asian economies is very strong. China’s growth
continues to be robust as structural reforms advance, while ASEAN has remained resilient in the
face of the Fed’s QE tapering. ASEAN’s internal and external trade is growing, while FDI has
rebounded; current accounts and currencies have been stabilised, and there is less vulnerability
to capital flight. Investment levels remain high with an emphasis on infrastructure and job
creation. There will certainly be no repeat of 1997. At the same time, financial inclusion must be
a priority: credit instruments and social investment are essential for broad-based growth to take
hold. Even as the US rebound accelerates, investors should prioritise long-term allocations
towards sectors that have exposure to the rapidly growing urban populations of Asia, which
represent the majority of the world’s middle class increase over the next 20 years.
Andy Xie, Renowned Economist
The stimulus story in China is over and we now have to solve the structural problems, as well as
deal with the consequences of the stimulus plans. We are at a very difficult juncture. The market
has been weak for a long time, so valuations are extremely low. Stocks are trading at a huge
discount to the US market when they were trading at a premium just a few years ago.
Long-term investors need to consider the direction that China is likely to take. If China makes a
turn, the investment prospects will be much better. There is no other country of this size in the
region that could grow at the rate that China has. If investors can overcome this difficult period,
the future is very bright.
Dr Dan Steinbock, Fellow, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies & Research
Director, International Business, India, China & America Institute
Emerging Asia is no longer immune to the debt crises in the US, Europe and Japan, but remains
favourably positioned in the medium-term. In the short term, the deferral of local-debt
deleveraging should allow Beijing to contain local debt with growth. As China’s grand strategy is
shifting, its growth will gradually move toward consumption and innovation, which has the
potential to broaden and deepen regional integration, while providing opportunities across Asia. A
dynamic investment perspective is thus vital to focus on the upside potential and to assess shortterm fluctuations vis-à-vis the region’s structural potential.
Investment and asset allocation strategies must be adjusted on the basis of China’s reforms, US
and Chinese rebalancing in the region, and the West’s exit from quantitative easing. Growth
trajectories rest on diverging scenarios, from “regional growth and prosperity” to “regional Cold
War.” The old investment strategies are now history in the world’s most dynamic region.
Business is no longer “as usual” in Asia.
2. About the APAC Investments Summit 2014
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The Summit includes presentations on forecasting the future economic climate
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To view the web version of these interviews, please click here:
www.apacinvestmentssummit.com/ParagKhanna-AndyXie-DanSteinbock