This presentation by Mark D. Choudhari was for the Second National Conference for the Indian Chapter of the System Dynamics Society held in 2012.

1. Project Dynamics
Emerging Insights & Opportunities
Mark D. Choudhari
The Lotus Group of Companies
© Copyright 2012. Lotus Projects

2. PROJECT DYNAMICS
Define BOSS.
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

3. PROJECT DYNAMICS
Define BOSS.
The Boss is a person who thinks that 9 women together can
produce a child in 1 month.
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

4. PROJECT DYNAMICS
Define BOSS.
The Boss is a person who thinks that 9 women together can
produce a child in 1 month.
And if this target is achieved…
then he wants twins next month.
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

5. PROJECT DYNAMICS
Define BOSS.
The Boss is a person who thinks that 9 women together can
produce a child in 1 month.
And if this target is achieved then he wants twins next
month.
And so Project Dynamics would help set the BOSS
straight…
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

6. PROJECT DYNAMICS
Define BOSS.
The Boss is a person who thinks that 9 women together can
produce a child in 1 month.
And if this target is achieved then he wants twins next
month.
And so Project Dynamics would help set the BOSS
straight…
…or help deliver twins next month?
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

7. Agenda
• Introduction
• The Project Dynamics Approach
• Applications
• Future Work
• Integration Study
• Conclusions
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

8. Introduction
• Need to increase project success rates amidst increasing
project complexities
• Detail and Dynamic Complexity
• Industry: WBS, PERT, CPM, …
• Association: PMI‟s PMBoK, …
• Other Disciplines: System Dynamics & Modeling
• Decision Making in Practice
• Tools limited for understanding dynamics
• Other tools too complicated for widespread use
• Use of heuristics or “rules of thumb”
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

9. The Project Dynamics Approach
Definitions
• Project dynamics is the study of the dynamics that occur
on projects
• Project dynamics presents a rigorous way to help
thinking, visualising and communicating the
relationships and interdependencies between various
components of a project and how these causal
relationships determine behaviour of the project over
time
Common Tools: Causal maps, simulation models
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

10. The Project Dynamics Approach
questioning frameworks
mental models
thinking
causal loops
analysing simulation
models
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

11. The Project Dynamics Approach &
PMI PMBoK Frameworks
Detail
Complexity
• 5 groups
• 9 areas
• 42 processes
• Inputs, Tools &
Techniques, Outputs
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

12. The Project Dynamics Approach &
PMI PMBoK Frameworks
Dynamic
Complexity
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

13. The Project Dynamics Approach &
PMI PMBoK Frameworks
Dynamic
Complexity
why?
plan
practice
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

14. The Project Dynamics Approach
Four classes of models:
• Project Features
• Rework Cycles
• Project Control Strategies
• Cascading and Subsequent Effects
• Ripple Effects
• Knock-on Effects
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

15. The Project Dynamics Approach:
Project Feature Models
• Models represent the actual activities and tasks during
phases/projects/program including interdependencies
• Material flows and information flows; business/project policies
• Include human aspects like employee motivation, real vs. perceived
progress, perception gaps
• Modelling important components of actual projects increases the ability
to simulate realistic project dynamics that relate directly to the
experiences of practicing managers
• Increasing sophistication with concurrence constraints, design changes
and uncertainties, schedule buffers, …
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

16. The Project Dynamics Approach
Four classes of models:
• Project Features √
• Rework Cycles
• Project Control Strategies
• Cascading and Subsequent Effects
• Ripple Effects
• Knock-on Effects
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

17. The Project Dynamics Approach:
Rework Cycle Models
• Rework arrives unanticipated, or expected and estimated, or
generated by external factors
• Errors caused by doing work incorrectly results in having
to do additional work to correct the errors or in redoing the
work completely
• Rework itself also tends to have errors causing further
rework
• Project dynamics helps better understand the cyclical nature
of rework and to estimate more accurately the effort
required due to rework cycles
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

18. The Project Dynamics Approach:
Rework Cycle Models
pressure on
S schedule
S
work remaining to perceived work
be done completion rate
O
work completed S
without errors
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

19. The Project Dynamics Approach:
Rework Cycle Models
Balancing loop B represents the progress of work being done on a
project without errors or rework
pressure on
S schedule
S
B
work remaining to perceived work
be done completion rate
O
work completed S
without errors
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

20. The Project Dynamics Approach:
Rework Cycle Models
pressure on
S schedule
S
B
work remaining to perceived work
be done completion rate
O
S
work completed S
S
without errors
work completed with
undiscovered errors
work with errors
discovered S
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

21. The Project Dynamics Approach:
Rework Cycle Models
Reinforcing loop R1 represents the effects of rework being created
pressure on
S schedule
S
B
work remaining to perceived work
be done completion rate
O
S
work completed S
S
without errors
work completed with
undiscovered errors
R1
work with errors
discovered S
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

22. The Project Dynamics Approach:
Rework Cycle Models
pressure on
S schedule
S
error generation
rate
S
B
work remaining to perceived work
be done completion rate
O
S
work completed S S
S
without errors
work completed with
undiscovered errors
R1
work with errors
discovered S
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

23. The Project Dynamics Approach:
Rework Cycle Models
Reinforcing loop R2 represents the effects of schedule pressure to
increase error generation rates (and therefore rework)
pressure on
S schedule
S
error generation
R2 rate
S
B
work remaining to perceived work
be done completion rate
O
S
work completed S S
S
without errors
work completed with
undiscovered errors
R1
work with errors
discovered S
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

24. The Project Dynamics Approach:
Rework Cycle Models
In practice, all three loops B, R1 and R2 are active on projects and
create their own dynamics of work being completed, errors being
generated, and error generation rates changing
pressure on
S schedule
S
error generation
R2 rate
S
B
work remaining to perceived work
be done completion rate
O
S
work completed S S
S
without errors
work completed with
undiscovered errors
R1
work with errors
discovered S
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

25. The Project Dynamics Approach
Four classes of models:
• Project Features √
• Rework Cycles √
• Project Control Strategies
• Cascading and Subsequent Effects
• Ripple Effects
• Knock-on Effects
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

26. The Project Dynamics Approach:
Project Control Models
• Managers make decisions to control the performance gap
between actual progress and the performance targets
• As human beings, managers make decisions based on what
they perceive and what information is available to them at
that point in time
• Perceived conditions drive project control actions by
managers and the actual conditions drive actual progress on
projects
• Unique aspect of project dynamics models is that they
differentiate between perceived conditions and actual
conditions on a project
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

27. The Project Dynamics Approach:
Project Control Models
From our rework example,
• Managers generally include undiscovered rework in the
work they perceive as completed as the errors are as yet
undetected at that point in time.
• This often leads to overestimating progress and
productivity at the early stages of a project.
• So while the actual progress made is less than it seems due
to work completed containing undetected errors, future
decisions and forecasts are made based on the amount of
work that is incorrectly perceived to be completed
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

28. The Project Dynamics Approach:
Project Control Models – Labour
Control project schedule
time available
O
Project Control S project schedule
estimate of time pressure
Action: required for completion
Address schedule S
slippage by increasing S
B3
B2
the effective labour work remaining labour overtime S
resources by O S work intensity
• increasing the work S labour headcount
S
intensity labour quantity
rate of work S
• increasing overtime completion
S
• increasing the B1
headcount
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

29. The Project Dynamics Approach
Four classes of models:
• Project Features √
• Rework Cycles √
• Project Control Strategies √
• Cascading and Subsequent Effects
• Ripple Effects
• Knock-on Effects
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

30. The Project Dynamics Approach:
Ripple Effect & Knock-on Effect Models
• Project control actions like increasing overtime, adding
people and increasing work pressures on a team can have
counterintuitive and unintended consequences
• Control actions exacerbate the very project conditions of
schedule slippage that they seek to alleviate
• Occurs due to the feedback effects of increasing
errors, increasing rework, experience
dilution, communication overheads, fatigue, burnout and
worker turnover.
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

31. The Project Dynamics Approach:
Ripple Effect Models
project schedule
Ripple effects are time available
the primary impacts O
S project schedule
of project control estimate of time pressure
actions on rework required for completion
and productivity S communication
overheads
• fatigue S
• communication work remaining labour overtime
S S
overheads O work intensity
labour headcount
S
• experience dilution S
labour quantity
• error generation rate of work experience
fatigue completion
• productivity loss
error generation
productivity
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

32. The Project Dynamics Approach:
Knock-on Effect Models
project schedule
Knock-on effects time available
are the secondary O
S project schedule
and tertiary effects estimate of time pressure
required for completion
• out-of-sequence
S communication
work overheads
morale S
• error
work remaining labour overtime S
contamination S
O work intensity
• additional work S
labour headcount
• lower employee S
labour quantity
rate of work experience
morale
fatigue completion
error generation
productivity
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

33. The Project Dynamics Approach
Four classes of models:
• Project Features √
• Rework Cycles √
• Project Control Strategies √
• Cascading and Subsequent Effects √
• Ripple Effects √
• Knock-on Effects √
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

34. The Project Dynamics Approach
questioning behaviour frameworks
mental models
thinking
causal loops
structure
analysing simulation
models
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

35. The Project Dynamics Approach
Simulation Models
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

36. The Project Dynamics Approach
questioning behaviour frameworks
mental models
thinking
causal loops
structure
analysing simulation
models
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

37. The Project Dynamics Approach &
PMI PMBoK Frameworks
Dynamic
Complexity
why?
plan
practice
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

38. The Project Dynamics Approach &
PMI PMBoK Frameworks
Dynamic
Complexity
plan
practice
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

39. The Project Dynamics Approach
Key lesson: Structure drives behaviour!
questioning behaviour frameworks
mental models
thinking
causal loops
structure
analysing simulation
models
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

40. Applications of Project Dynamics
Several applications in companies for purposes including:
• Estimation and Risk Assessment
• Project Control
• Risk Management
• Project Evaluations and Dispute Resolution
• Change Management
• Individual and Organisational Learning
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

41. Future Work
From Quotes from Program Managers:
• Project plans sow the seeds for project success or failure
• An overly aggressive plan often actually makes the
performance of the project worse
• Critical to recognise undiscovered rework and finding new
ways to avoid its consequences
• Increasing early QA even at lower initial productivity is
generally beneficial to project outcomes
• Prioritizing rework detection and correction over starting
new work helps avoid downstream problems
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

42. Future Work
• Worse-before-better behaviour needs to be communicated
• Difficulties in initiating use of the approach for the first
time
• Need to develop insights and „lessons learned‟ to assist
managers on their daily managerial decisions
• The theory of project management would be enhanced by
integrating research from traditional project management
and project dynamics
• The practice of project management could be aided by
developing experimentation models and developing
insights to aid managers‟ decisions during actual project
situations
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

43. Project Dynamics Integration Study
• (a) To improve the understanding of project management
by incorporating insights from project dynamics within the
commonly used PMI project management frameworks,
• (b) To build a model that can be used for experimentation
and development of strategic decision making insights that
will help managers improve performance on projects, and
• (c) To obtain experiential industry feedback and contextual
support for the model and its findings through field studies
with project managers.
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities

44. Conclusions
• Exciting approach to transform the way project managers
think
• Models are increasingly being built and used by
companies for a variety of purposes
• Usage by managers can be enhanced by integration of the
project dynamics approach with traditional frameworks
• Development of models and heuristics to help managers
in practice
PROJECT DYNAMICS: Emerging Insights and Opportunities