Natural and Organic Foods and Beverages in the U.S., 4th Edition
Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2009
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Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2009
February 1, 2009
The dramatic economic events that unfolded on the world stage in 2008 were
accompanied by fear, sheer panic and the realization that it is impossible to isolate
serious problems on Wall Street from those on Main Street. With this as the backdrop
heading into 2009, perceptions of the health of the overall economy and personal
financial security will have a major impact on what consumers will eat and drink, both at
home and away. The focus of this report, as in years past, is to highlight the flavor and
ingredient trends anticipated in 2009 along with valuable insights relevant to the
foodservice and retail markets.
In this edition, Packaged Facts takes a look at seven key categories that will drive flavor
and ingredient trends in the coming years. To gauge how trends are (or are not) moving
forward, we’ve included our expectations for last year, along with predictions for 2009
for each of the following categories:
• Global Flavors
• Sustainability
• Local & Organic
• Imports, Food Safety
• Health & Wellness
• Savory Selections
• Sweet Salvation
Report Methodology
The information in Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2009 is based on both primary
and secondary research. Primary research involved on-site examination of the retail
place, interviews with marketing, public relations and industry analysts within the food
market and consultants to the industry. Secondary research entailed data-gathering
from relevant trade, business, and government sources, including company literature
and blogs.
What You’ll Get in this Report
Food Flavors & Ingredients Outlook 2009 makes important predictions and
2. recommendations on the key drivers that will affect the food industry in 2009. Those
drivers that will impact flavors and ingredients for foodservice and retail heading into
2009 include the recession, food inflation, health and wellness, and heightened
consumer awareness and interest in environmentally friendly consumption decisions.
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Executive Summary
Scope
Report Methodology
Key Drivers
Culture of Responsibility Heralds Consumption Aversion
Tradeoffs
Food Inflation
Health = Wealth
Save Money, Save the Earth
Simple Pleasures
A Look Back and Ahead
World of Flavors
Health = Wellness
Local, Organic Evolve
Cross Over Flavors
Savory Selections
Sweet Salvation
Chapter 2: World of Flavors
Diverse America
What Comes After Chinese, Italian and Mexican?
Table 2-1: Non-traditional Ethnic Foods Consumption by Age, Percent
consuming twice a month or more
3. Looking Ahead
Rustic French
Charcuterie
Asian Always Appeals
Japanese Still Leads
Korean Gains
Pan-Asian More Popular
Ingredients Headed Mainstream
Mediterranean More Ubiquitous
Time for Spain to Shine
Persuasive Peruvian
Newcomers
Laos
Algeria
Kosher More Mainstream
Ethnic Foods at Retail
For the Masses
Targeting the Foreign Born
Looking Ahead
Chapter 3: Sustainability - Center Stage
Sustainability, Society and Economics
Truly Green or Greenwashing?
Back to Basics: The 3 Rs
Reduce
Reuse, Recycle
Bag the Plastic
Or Break It Down
4. Fair Trade Sells
Ethical Sustainability - Sustainable in a Down Economy?
Battling Bottled Water
Chapter 4: Local, Organic Evolve
Seasonal Menus: Aspiration, Reality or Mandate?
The Chain Challenge
New Kitchen Required?
Organics Stall
Consumers Less Committed
Retailers Feel the Pain
Pressure on Producers
Ethical, Fresh and Quality Also Compete
Table 4-1: Importance of Various Labels When Selecting Foods and
Beverages (percent)
Restaurants an Exception
Local vs. Organic: A Clear Winner?
Table 4-2: Why Consumers Order Local and Organic Foods at Restaurants
(percent)
Looking Ahead
Natural & Organic Regulations: Worth the Wait?
Questionable Certification Standards for Seafood
Chapter 5: Imports, Food Safety Convergence
COOL Rules
Food Safety Concerns Increase
Consumers Lack Confidence
Salmonella Scapegoat: Tomatoes
Cutting Out the Middlemen
Bad Beef
5. Problematic Pork
China - Big Red Flag?
Table 5-1: Select Agricultural and Seafood Imports from China (2006 vs.
2007) (in metric tons, thousands of dollars, and percent change)
The Melamine Crisis - Where Next?
Table 5-2: Imports of Chinese Dairy Ingredients and Products (2007, YTD
2008) (metric tons)
Foreign Fish
Other Import Fears
Chapter 6: Trend-watching
Trend #1: Comfort Foods
Trend #2: Store Brands Now Hip
Coupon Use At A Good Clip
Trend #3: More Brown Bag It
Trend #4: Dining Deals
Trend #5: Eating At Home: More Popular Than Cooking There
Supermarket Take-Out Still Growing
More Take Than Make
Frozen Pizza Heating Up
Kitchen Basics
Trend #6: Crossovers & Flavor Profiles Reach Out
Savory into Sweet: More Intermingling
Herbs
Bacon
Mojito
Trend #7: Breakfast is Back
Trend #8: Occasional Vegetarians on the Rise
6. Trend #9: Small Plates Still Big
Trend #10: Restaurants Go Under…Ground
Chapter 7: Health = Wealth
Obesity Still Weighs Heavy
Fewer Calories Count More
Small Plate Movement
Simplifying Nutrition Labels - Without the FDA
Digestive Health - Easier to Swallow
Good Bugs Lead the Way
Care and Feeding of Friendly Bugs
Fiber
Antioxidants Dominate
Table 7-1: New Product Introductions With Select Superfruits (average
annual percent change)
Omega-3 Mainstream: DHA Breaks Out
No, No, No
Table 7-2: New Product Introductions Carrying Select Avoidance Claims
(2004 - 2008) USA (average annual percent change)
Trans Fat
Artificial Colors
Gluten
Lactose
High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS)
Glycemic Index
Potassium
Beauty Doesn’t Happen Overnight
Chapter 8: Savory Selections
Eco-Friendly Seafood - Awareness Spreads but More Endangered
7. Sushi Scrutinized
Wake Up Call for Retailers
Hi Tech and Cheat Sheets Mean Smarter Choices
Top 10 Seafood Picks: Eco-Friendly or Not
Table 8-1: Top 10 U.S. Seafood Consumption by Species (2005 - 2007)
Artisanal Cheese
Mass Appeal
Passion Reaches New Depths
American Cheese Redefined
Restaurants Redefine Protein
Meat & Poultry: Top and Tough
Economy Beef: Big on Flavor, Lower in Price
Upscale Burgers for a Growing Appetite
Beef for Hispanics
Beyond Beef
Chicken Clucks Along
No Barriers for Brown Rice
Venerable Vegetables
Chapter 9: Sweet Salvation
Outlook Sweeter, But Less Sugary
New Era of Beverages: Natural AND No Calories
Sweetness, Pure and Simple
So Long, Sugar
Hello, Honey…. Agave and Maple
Small Desserts - No Big News
Non-Dairy Milks: Watch Out Soy
Yippee for Yogurt
8. Healthier Snacks and Desserts
Texture Adds Interest; More Filling
New Styles: Beyond Greek
Yogurt’s New Shop Culture
Too Much Of A Good Thing?
Cupcakes Road Trip, Party On!
Chocolate -Taste Still Dictates
Table 9-1: Number of Reports of New Chocolate Product Introductions
USA (2004 - 2008) (average annual percent change)
Fruity Favorites
Fun and Fanciful
Gourmet Popsicles and Novel Frozen Treats
Sweet Treats Get More Personal
Appendix A: Sushi Pocket Guide
Appendix B: Seafood Pocket Guide
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