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Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2009


February 1, 2009

The dramatic economic events that unfolded on the world stage in 2008 were
accompanied by fear, sheer panic and the realization that it is impossible to isolate
serious problems on Wall Street from those on Main Street. With this as the backdrop
heading into 2009, perceptions of the health of the overall economy and personal
financial security will have a major impact on what consumers will eat and drink, both at
home and away. The focus of this report, as in years past, is to highlight the flavor and
ingredient trends anticipated in 2009 along with valuable insights relevant to the
foodservice and retail markets.

In this edition, Packaged Facts takes a look at seven key categories that will drive flavor
and ingredient trends in the coming years. To gauge how trends are (or are not) moving
forward, we’ve included our expectations for last year, along with predictions for 2009
for each of the following categories:

    •   Global Flavors
    •   Sustainability
    •   Local & Organic
    •   Imports, Food Safety
    •   Health & Wellness
    •   Savory Selections
    •   Sweet Salvation

Report Methodology
The information in Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2009 is based on both primary
and secondary research. Primary research involved on-site examination of the retail
place, interviews with marketing, public relations and industry analysts within the food
market and consultants to the industry. Secondary research entailed data-gathering
from relevant trade, business, and government sources, including company literature
and blogs.

What You’ll Get in this Report
Food Flavors & Ingredients Outlook 2009 makes important predictions and
recommendations on the key drivers that will affect the food industry in 2009. Those
drivers that will impact flavors and ingredients for foodservice and retail heading into
2009 include the recession, food inflation, health and wellness, and heightened
consumer awareness and interest in environmentally friendly consumption decisions.



Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Executive Summary
       Scope
       Report Methodology
       Key Drivers
       Culture of Responsibility Heralds Consumption Aversion
       Tradeoffs
       Food Inflation
       Health = Wealth
       Save Money, Save the Earth
       Simple Pleasures
       A Look Back and Ahead
       World of Flavors
       Health = Wellness
       Local, Organic Evolve
       Cross Over Flavors
       Savory Selections
       Sweet Salvation

Chapter 2: World of Flavors
     Diverse America
       What Comes After Chinese, Italian and Mexican?
       Table 2-1: Non-traditional Ethnic Foods Consumption by Age, Percent
       consuming twice a month or more
Looking Ahead
      Rustic French
      Charcuterie
      Asian Always Appeals
      Japanese Still Leads
      Korean Gains
      Pan-Asian More Popular
      Ingredients Headed Mainstream
      Mediterranean More Ubiquitous
      Time for Spain to Shine
      Persuasive Peruvian
      Newcomers
      Laos
      Algeria
      Kosher More Mainstream
      Ethnic Foods at Retail
      For the Masses
      Targeting the Foreign Born
      Looking Ahead

Chapter 3: Sustainability - Center Stage
     Sustainability, Society and Economics
      Truly Green or Greenwashing?
      Back to Basics: The 3 Rs
      Reduce
      Reuse, Recycle
      Bag the Plastic
      Or Break It Down
Fair Trade Sells
      Ethical Sustainability - Sustainable in a Down Economy?
      Battling Bottled Water

Chapter 4: Local, Organic Evolve
     Seasonal Menus: Aspiration, Reality or Mandate?
      The Chain Challenge
      New Kitchen Required?
      Organics Stall
      Consumers Less Committed
      Retailers Feel the Pain
      Pressure on Producers
      Ethical, Fresh and Quality Also Compete
      Table 4-1: Importance of Various Labels When Selecting Foods and
      Beverages (percent)
      Restaurants an Exception
      Local vs. Organic: A Clear Winner?
      Table 4-2: Why Consumers Order Local and Organic Foods at Restaurants
      (percent)
      Looking Ahead
      Natural & Organic Regulations: Worth the Wait?
      Questionable Certification Standards for Seafood

Chapter 5: Imports, Food Safety Convergence
     COOL Rules
      Food Safety Concerns Increase
      Consumers Lack Confidence
      Salmonella Scapegoat: Tomatoes
      Cutting Out the Middlemen
      Bad Beef
Problematic Pork
     China - Big Red Flag?
     Table 5-1: Select Agricultural and Seafood Imports from China (2006 vs.
     2007) (in metric tons, thousands of dollars, and percent change)
     The Melamine Crisis - Where Next?
     Table 5-2: Imports of Chinese Dairy Ingredients and Products (2007, YTD
     2008) (metric tons)
     Foreign Fish
     Other Import Fears

Chapter 6: Trend-watching
     Trend #1: Comfort Foods
     Trend #2: Store Brands Now Hip
     Coupon Use At A Good Clip
     Trend #3: More Brown Bag It
     Trend #4: Dining Deals
     Trend #5: Eating At Home: More Popular Than Cooking There
     Supermarket Take-Out Still Growing
     More Take Than Make
     Frozen Pizza Heating Up
     Kitchen Basics
     Trend #6: Crossovers & Flavor Profiles Reach Out
     Savory into Sweet: More Intermingling
     Herbs
     Bacon
     Mojito
     Trend #7: Breakfast is Back
     Trend #8: Occasional Vegetarians on the Rise
Trend #9: Small Plates Still Big
      Trend #10: Restaurants Go Under…Ground

Chapter 7: Health = Wealth
     Obesity Still Weighs Heavy
      Fewer Calories Count More
      Small Plate Movement
      Simplifying Nutrition Labels - Without the FDA
      Digestive Health - Easier to Swallow
      Good Bugs Lead the Way
      Care and Feeding of Friendly Bugs
      Fiber
      Antioxidants Dominate
      Table 7-1: New Product Introductions With Select Superfruits (average
      annual percent change)
      Omega-3 Mainstream: DHA Breaks Out
      No, No, No
      Table 7-2: New Product Introductions Carrying Select Avoidance Claims
      (2004 - 2008) USA (average annual percent change)
      Trans Fat
      Artificial Colors
      Gluten
      Lactose
      High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS)
      Glycemic Index
      Potassium
      Beauty Doesn’t Happen Overnight

Chapter 8: Savory Selections
     Eco-Friendly Seafood - Awareness Spreads but More Endangered
Sushi Scrutinized
      Wake Up Call for Retailers
      Hi Tech and Cheat Sheets Mean Smarter Choices
      Top 10 Seafood Picks: Eco-Friendly or Not
      Table 8-1: Top 10 U.S. Seafood Consumption by Species (2005 - 2007)
      Artisanal Cheese
      Mass Appeal
      Passion Reaches New Depths
      American Cheese Redefined
      Restaurants Redefine Protein
      Meat & Poultry: Top and Tough
      Economy Beef: Big on Flavor, Lower in Price
      Upscale Burgers for a Growing Appetite
      Beef for Hispanics
      Beyond Beef
      Chicken Clucks Along
      No Barriers for Brown Rice
      Venerable Vegetables

Chapter 9: Sweet Salvation
     Outlook Sweeter, But Less Sugary
      New Era of Beverages: Natural AND No Calories
      Sweetness, Pure and Simple
      So Long, Sugar
      Hello, Honey…. Agave and Maple
      Small Desserts - No Big News
      Non-Dairy Milks: Watch Out Soy
      Yippee for Yogurt
Healthier Snacks and Desserts
       Texture Adds Interest; More Filling
       New Styles: Beyond Greek
       Yogurt’s New Shop Culture
       Too Much Of A Good Thing?
       Cupcakes Road Trip, Party On!
       Chocolate -Taste Still Dictates
       Table 9-1: Number of Reports of New Chocolate Product Introductions
       USA (2004 - 2008) (average annual percent change)
       Fruity Favorites
       Fun and Fanciful
       Gourmet Popsicles and Novel Frozen Treats
       Sweet Treats Get More Personal

Appendix A: Sushi Pocket Guide

Appendix B: Seafood Pocket Guide




Available immediately for Online Download at
http://www.marketresearch.com/product/display.asp?productid=1933707 

 

US: 800.298.5699

UK +44.207.256.3920

Int'l: +1.240.747.3093

Fax: 240.747.3004 

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Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2009

  • 1.     Get more info on this report! Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2009 February 1, 2009 The dramatic economic events that unfolded on the world stage in 2008 were accompanied by fear, sheer panic and the realization that it is impossible to isolate serious problems on Wall Street from those on Main Street. With this as the backdrop heading into 2009, perceptions of the health of the overall economy and personal financial security will have a major impact on what consumers will eat and drink, both at home and away. The focus of this report, as in years past, is to highlight the flavor and ingredient trends anticipated in 2009 along with valuable insights relevant to the foodservice and retail markets. In this edition, Packaged Facts takes a look at seven key categories that will drive flavor and ingredient trends in the coming years. To gauge how trends are (or are not) moving forward, we’ve included our expectations for last year, along with predictions for 2009 for each of the following categories: • Global Flavors • Sustainability • Local & Organic • Imports, Food Safety • Health & Wellness • Savory Selections • Sweet Salvation Report Methodology The information in Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2009 is based on both primary and secondary research. Primary research involved on-site examination of the retail place, interviews with marketing, public relations and industry analysts within the food market and consultants to the industry. Secondary research entailed data-gathering from relevant trade, business, and government sources, including company literature and blogs. What You’ll Get in this Report Food Flavors & Ingredients Outlook 2009 makes important predictions and
  • 2. recommendations on the key drivers that will affect the food industry in 2009. Those drivers that will impact flavors and ingredients for foodservice and retail heading into 2009 include the recession, food inflation, health and wellness, and heightened consumer awareness and interest in environmentally friendly consumption decisions. Table of Contents Chapter 1: Executive Summary Scope Report Methodology Key Drivers Culture of Responsibility Heralds Consumption Aversion Tradeoffs Food Inflation Health = Wealth Save Money, Save the Earth Simple Pleasures A Look Back and Ahead World of Flavors Health = Wellness Local, Organic Evolve Cross Over Flavors Savory Selections Sweet Salvation Chapter 2: World of Flavors Diverse America What Comes After Chinese, Italian and Mexican? Table 2-1: Non-traditional Ethnic Foods Consumption by Age, Percent consuming twice a month or more
  • 3. Looking Ahead Rustic French Charcuterie Asian Always Appeals Japanese Still Leads Korean Gains Pan-Asian More Popular Ingredients Headed Mainstream Mediterranean More Ubiquitous Time for Spain to Shine Persuasive Peruvian Newcomers Laos Algeria Kosher More Mainstream Ethnic Foods at Retail For the Masses Targeting the Foreign Born Looking Ahead Chapter 3: Sustainability - Center Stage Sustainability, Society and Economics Truly Green or Greenwashing? Back to Basics: The 3 Rs Reduce Reuse, Recycle Bag the Plastic Or Break It Down
  • 4. Fair Trade Sells Ethical Sustainability - Sustainable in a Down Economy? Battling Bottled Water Chapter 4: Local, Organic Evolve Seasonal Menus: Aspiration, Reality or Mandate? The Chain Challenge New Kitchen Required? Organics Stall Consumers Less Committed Retailers Feel the Pain Pressure on Producers Ethical, Fresh and Quality Also Compete Table 4-1: Importance of Various Labels When Selecting Foods and Beverages (percent) Restaurants an Exception Local vs. Organic: A Clear Winner? Table 4-2: Why Consumers Order Local and Organic Foods at Restaurants (percent) Looking Ahead Natural & Organic Regulations: Worth the Wait? Questionable Certification Standards for Seafood Chapter 5: Imports, Food Safety Convergence COOL Rules Food Safety Concerns Increase Consumers Lack Confidence Salmonella Scapegoat: Tomatoes Cutting Out the Middlemen Bad Beef
  • 5. Problematic Pork China - Big Red Flag? Table 5-1: Select Agricultural and Seafood Imports from China (2006 vs. 2007) (in metric tons, thousands of dollars, and percent change) The Melamine Crisis - Where Next? Table 5-2: Imports of Chinese Dairy Ingredients and Products (2007, YTD 2008) (metric tons) Foreign Fish Other Import Fears Chapter 6: Trend-watching Trend #1: Comfort Foods Trend #2: Store Brands Now Hip Coupon Use At A Good Clip Trend #3: More Brown Bag It Trend #4: Dining Deals Trend #5: Eating At Home: More Popular Than Cooking There Supermarket Take-Out Still Growing More Take Than Make Frozen Pizza Heating Up Kitchen Basics Trend #6: Crossovers & Flavor Profiles Reach Out Savory into Sweet: More Intermingling Herbs Bacon Mojito Trend #7: Breakfast is Back Trend #8: Occasional Vegetarians on the Rise
  • 6. Trend #9: Small Plates Still Big Trend #10: Restaurants Go Under…Ground Chapter 7: Health = Wealth Obesity Still Weighs Heavy Fewer Calories Count More Small Plate Movement Simplifying Nutrition Labels - Without the FDA Digestive Health - Easier to Swallow Good Bugs Lead the Way Care and Feeding of Friendly Bugs Fiber Antioxidants Dominate Table 7-1: New Product Introductions With Select Superfruits (average annual percent change) Omega-3 Mainstream: DHA Breaks Out No, No, No Table 7-2: New Product Introductions Carrying Select Avoidance Claims (2004 - 2008) USA (average annual percent change) Trans Fat Artificial Colors Gluten Lactose High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS) Glycemic Index Potassium Beauty Doesn’t Happen Overnight Chapter 8: Savory Selections Eco-Friendly Seafood - Awareness Spreads but More Endangered
  • 7. Sushi Scrutinized Wake Up Call for Retailers Hi Tech and Cheat Sheets Mean Smarter Choices Top 10 Seafood Picks: Eco-Friendly or Not Table 8-1: Top 10 U.S. Seafood Consumption by Species (2005 - 2007) Artisanal Cheese Mass Appeal Passion Reaches New Depths American Cheese Redefined Restaurants Redefine Protein Meat & Poultry: Top and Tough Economy Beef: Big on Flavor, Lower in Price Upscale Burgers for a Growing Appetite Beef for Hispanics Beyond Beef Chicken Clucks Along No Barriers for Brown Rice Venerable Vegetables Chapter 9: Sweet Salvation Outlook Sweeter, But Less Sugary New Era of Beverages: Natural AND No Calories Sweetness, Pure and Simple So Long, Sugar Hello, Honey…. Agave and Maple Small Desserts - No Big News Non-Dairy Milks: Watch Out Soy Yippee for Yogurt
  • 8. Healthier Snacks and Desserts Texture Adds Interest; More Filling New Styles: Beyond Greek Yogurt’s New Shop Culture Too Much Of A Good Thing? Cupcakes Road Trip, Party On! Chocolate -Taste Still Dictates Table 9-1: Number of Reports of New Chocolate Product Introductions USA (2004 - 2008) (average annual percent change) Fruity Favorites Fun and Fanciful Gourmet Popsicles and Novel Frozen Treats Sweet Treats Get More Personal Appendix A: Sushi Pocket Guide Appendix B: Seafood Pocket Guide Available immediately for Online Download at http://www.marketresearch.com/product/display.asp?productid=1933707    US: 800.298.5699 UK +44.207.256.3920 Int'l: +1.240.747.3093 Fax: 240.747.3004