Can renewable energy save the world? Panel discussion held by University of California, Santa Cruz February 11 2009. Peter Borden, Awais Khan, Ali Shakouri.
Unraveling Multimodality with Large Language Models.pdf
Baskin UCSC Panel Feb 18 2009 Ali Shakouri
1. A. Shakouri 2/11/2009
Can Renewables Save the
World?
Ali Shakouri
Baskin School of Engineering
University of California Santa Cruz
http://quantum.soe.ucsc.edu/
UCSC Silicon Valley Center/NASA Ames; 11 February 20091
2. World Marketed Energy Use by A. Shakouri 2/11/2009
Fuel Type 1980-2030 2050: 25-30TW
13TW
34%
28%
38%
24%
26% Share of
World
Total
23%
8%
7%
6%
6%
DOE Energy Information Administration (2007) 2
2
5. Cost of Renewable Energy A. Shakouri 2/11/2009
Levelized cents/kWh in constant $2000
100
40
PV
Wind
COE cents/kWh
COE cents/kWh
80
30
60
20
40
10 20
0
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
70 15
10
Solar thermal Biomass
Geothermal
COE cents/kWh
60
COE cents/kWh
COE cents/kWh
8 12
50
9
6 40
30 6
4
20
3
2 10
0
0
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office
Keith Wipke, NREL
These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data.
Updated: October 2002
5
6. Microprocessor Evolution A. Shakouri 2/11/2009
1 Billion
K
1,000,000 Transistors
100,000
Pentium® 4
Pentium® III
10,000 Pentium® II
Pentium®
1,000
i486
i386
100 80286
8086
10
1
’75 ’80 ’85 ’90 ’95 ’00 ’05 ’10 ’15
6
7. Airplane Speed/Efficiency Evolution A. Shakouri 2/11/2009
US Energy Intensity (MJ)
Airplane Speed
per available seat km
@ 160kg payload/seat
NLR-CR-2005-669;Peeters P.M., Middel
McMasters & Cummings, Journal of
J., Hoolhorst A.
Aircraft, Jan-Feb 2002
7
8. A. Shakouri 2/11/2009
Felix’s
forecasts of
Nuclear
US energy
consumption
Natural
in year 2000
gas
(early 1970’s)
Oil
Coal Vaclav Smil,
Energy at the Crossroads,
2005
8
15. Power ~3.3TW
A. Shakouri 11/25/2008
A. Shakouri 2/11/2009
Rejected
1.3TW
Energy 61%
Lawrence Livermore National Lab., http://eed.llnl.gov/flow
15
16. Can Renewables Save the World? A. Shakouri 2/11/2009
• Fossil fuels have excellent energy characteristics.
• Wind/ geothermal are among the cheapest of
renewables. There is potential for significant
growth but they can not solve our energy problem.
• Solar energy has the potential to provide all our
energy needs.
– Currently expensive; it is intermittent.
• Currently no clear options for large scale energy
storage
• Biomass has the potential to provide part of
transportation energy needs
– Cellulosic biofuels and algaes are interesting but they
have not demonstrated large scale/long term potential.
One has to consider the full ecosystem impact (water,
food, etc.).
16
18. Can Renewables Save the World? A. Shakouri 2/11/2009
• If our goal is to have a planet where everybody has
a level of life similar to developed countries, energy
need is enormous and it is not clear if we can do this
by working on the supply side alone.
• Energy efficiency is helpful but it is not enough.
• We need to consider changes in lifestyle, city
planning and social structure (transportation,
lodging, grid).
18
19. Plan B for Energy A. Shakouri 2/11/2009
September 2006; Scientific American; W. Wayt Gibbs
• WAVES AND TIDES (Reality factor 5)
• HIGH-ALTITUDE WIND (Reality factor 4)
• NANOTECH SOLAR CELLS (Reality factor 4)
• DESIGNER MICROBES (Reality factor 4)
• NUCLEAR FUSION (Reality factor 3)
• SPACE-BASED SOLAR (Reality factor 3)
• A GLOBAL SUPERGRID (Reality factor 2)
• SCI-FI SOLUTIONS (Reality factor 1)
– Cold Fusion and Bubble Fusion
– Matter-Antimatter Reactors
19
20. EE80J Renewable Energy Sources
Spring 2009, Also Summer 2009 A. Shakouri 2/11/2009
• Energy, power and thermodynamics
• Home energy audit
• Power plants, nuclear power
• Solar energy
• Wind energy, hydropower, geothermal
• Biomass, hydrogen, fuel cells
• Economics, Environmental and
Societal Impacts
EE181J Renewable Energies in
Practice (July-August 2009)
CA/Denmark summer school (UCSC,
UC Davis, UC Merced, Techn. Univ.
Denmark, Roskilde)
UCSC Courses 20