Learning the BRICs Markets

Learing “People” and
learning BRICs market

July / 2005

Border Zero

Copyright ©2005-. Border Zero All rights reserved.

In beginning
BRICs (Brazil (B), Russia (R), India (I), China (C)) has been observed as
*
there economic presence will expands. According to report from Goldman
Sachs announces, in the future in 40 years, the economic potential of BRICs
is estimated to become larger than total of G6 (Japan, America, England,
France, Germany and Italy).

The Japanese enterprise has advanced to BRICs countries such as China
successively as the European-American enterprises. The purpose of this
report is to focus on “the person” which plays important factor of economy
and to grasp the features of each BRICs countries.

The investigation is based on original data such as United Nations.

* Goldman Sachs “DreamingWith BRICs: The Path to 2050” 2003

-1-

Facts of Japan and BRICs(1)
Japan Brazil（B） Russia India（I） China（C）
（ R）
Name Japan Federative Russian India People's
Republic of Federation Republic of
Brazil China
Capital Tokyo Brasilia Moscow Delhi Beijin

Land size 377,880 8,514,047 17,075,400 3,287,263 9,596,961
（1,000k㎡）
Population 128,084 186,405 143,201 1,103,371 1,315,844
（1,000）
Language Japanese Portuguese Russian, each Hindi, English, Chinese
race 17Official
languages recognition
languages
Race（%） Japanese, White（54%）, Russian（82%） Aryo（72%）, Han（91%）
Ainu, Korean Blend（40%）, Dravidian
Chinese Black（5%）, （25%）
Asia（1%）,
Original
Religion（%） Buddhism, Catholic Russian Hindi（83%）, Buddhism,
Shinto, （90%） (Orthodox) Muslim（11%）、 Taoism,
Christian Church 、 Christian（3%） Muslim,
Muslim, Lamaism,
Buddhism Christian

-2-

Facts of Japan and BRICs(2)
Japan Brazil（B） Russia India（I） China（C）
（ R）
GDP 4,302,557 492,338 432,849 595,108 1,412,323
（US$1mil,
nominal,
Y2003）
GDP per 1 33,727 2,759 3,022 559 1,083
person（US$,
nominal,
Y2003）
Import* 383,085 50,665 52,499 71,240 412,052
Export* 471,999 73,084 126,048 57,081 437,899
Import from - 333,335 490,216 252,133 8,731,139
BRICs to
Japan*
Export from - 217,338 203,995 276,340 6,635,482
Japan to
BRICs*

* as（US$1mil, Y2003）

-3-

Comparison of Japan with BRICs:HDI
The Indian HDI(Human Development Index)shows lowest among samples
and has been less than worldwide average.
Russia has been located highest in BRICs.
The Japanese HDI shows approximately 0.1 point higher than BRICs highest
Russia.
HDI of Japan and
index（rank）
BRICs
1
0.938 （9）
0.9
0.795 （57）
0.8 0.775 （72）
0.745 （94）
0.7 Worldwide average（0.729）
0.595 （127）
0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
Japan Brasil(B) Russia(R) India(I) China(C)

Source：Website of United Nations Development Programme
(http://hdr.undp.org/statistics/data/indic/indic_8_1_1.html)
-4-

Population Comparison:Growth
Population of China and India shows much larger than other BRICs countries,
Russia and Brazil.
Population in India is estimated to pull out China before 2030 and will record
world’s largest population. We can find that the positive advance of
European-American enterprises to India is executed by such increase in
population.
1,000people Population growth in Japan and BRICs
1,800,000

1,600,000 【Other Features】
1,400,000
•Russia is estimated decriease its
1,200,000
population as Japan.
1,000,000
•Big population fluctuation will not
800,000
be seen in Brazil, China and Russia
600,000 as India.
400,000

200,000

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Japan Brazil(B) Russia(R) India(I) China(C)

Source：United Nations “World Population Prospect 2004” (http://esa.un.org/unpp)

-5-

Population Comparison:Growth rate
The population growth rate in Russia has already changes to minus, also in
China will change to minus by 2030(see red circle below), population growth
rate in Japan and BRICs is to be blunts.
Only Brazil and India continue increasing its population growth by 2050
among BRICs countries.
Population growth rate in Japan and BRICs
%
2

【Other Features】
1.5
•Population gorwth of Japan will turn
1 minus by 2010

0.5

0
2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- 2030- 2035- 2040- 2045-
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
-0.5

-1



-6-

Population Comparison:Age
Average age of India has been lowest among Japan and BRICs countries.
Many enterprises have advanced to India by expecting young labor force.
As for Japan the average age exceeding 50 years old, advancing age has
been prominent

age Average age of Japan and BRICs
60

50
•Average age of Japan will reach its
40 peak at 2035 (approximately 53
years old) and will change with
30
stability.
20 •Average age of China and Russia
will change at peak, approximately
10
45 years old.
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050



-7-

Population Comparison:U15(1)
In each country, population under 15 year old is expected to decrease
tendency.
Population decrease under 15 years old has been prominent in China and
India where increase of population is expected. It is expected that
approximately 50,000,000 people decrease between 2005 and 2050.
1,000people
Change of population under 15 year old in Japan and BRICs
400,000

350,000 【Other Features】
300,000 •Population in Japan under 15 year
250,000 old will change with stability to
2050.
200,000
•The wave of population, stability
150,000
and decrease, will occur in both
100,000 China and Brazil.
50,000

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050



-8-

Population Comparison:U15(2)
By 2050 ratio of population under 15 year old between Japan and BRICs
countries focuses between 15-20%.
Ranking of population ratio under 15 years old between Japan or BRICs
countries almost does not fluctuate.

Change of ratio of population under 15 year old in Japan and BRICs
%
35

30 【Other Features】

25 •Japan will indicates lowest ratio of
population under 15 year old
20 among Japan and BRICs countries
15
by 2050.

10
•Ratio under 15 years old which in
2005 have 20% or less difference
5 between the highest India and
lowest Japan reduces to only 5% or
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
less in 2050.


-9-

Population Comparison:15-59(1)
The population 15-59 year old in India will continue increasing
（approximately 300 million peple will increase between 2005 and 2050） and
is possible to reversed with China around 2025(see red circle below).
In China, 1.5 hundred million people will decrease by 2050.

1,000people Change of population between 15 and 59 in Japan and BRICs
1,200,000

1,000,000
•Population 15-59 year old in Japan
800,000
will decrease slightly.
600,000 •Population 15-59 year old in Brazil
will increase as well as India.
400,000

200,000

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050



- 10 -

Population Comparison:15-59(2)
Except fo India, ratio of population 15-59 year old is possibly to stabilizes or
decreases without increasing.
The ratio of population 15-59 year old in India will increase slightly.

% Change of ratio of population 15-59 year old in Japan and BRICs
80

60 •Ratio of population 15-59 year old
50 in Japan will drop 15%.
40 •As for China whose ratio is highest
30
in 2005 will drop approximately
15% to 2050, the possibility that it
20 records the lowness which it comes
10 after Russia in BRICs.
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050



- 11 -

Population Comparison:over60(1)
The population of 60 years old or more in China and India will increase
rapidly about 2.5 hundred million people each by 2050.
The population of the same generation in other countries will increase as
well.

1,000 persons Change of population over 60 in Japan and BRICs
500,000

450,000
400,000

350,000
•Population of 60 years old or more
300,000
in Japan will its peak in 2040.
250,000 •Growth rate of population of 60
200,000 year old or more in Brazil
150,000 (approximately 3.8 times) is
100,000
highest along with India.
50,000

0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050



- 12 -

Population Comparison:over60(2)
The population ratio of 60 years old or more in Japan is highest among
Japan and BRICs countries, will rise about 15% by 2050 (more than 40%).
BRICs countries other than Japan are the possibility that ratio of population
of 60 year old or more rises 10% or more.

% Change of population ratio of over 60 in Japan and BRICs
45

35
•As for Japan, the population ratio of
30
60 years old or more is 10% or
25 more higher than BRICs countries
20 from 2005 to 2050.
15 •As for China advancing age
10 develops most between 2005 and
5
2050 among Japan and BRICs
countries.
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050



- 13 -

Comapies in Japan and BRICs:from Japan
The country to which most Japanese companies in BRICs countries have
advanced and which the number of affiliated companies runs is China.
Number of advance company from Japan to India where attracts attention
from the West by offshore development is less than that of Brasil, ranked
no.3 in BRICs.
Number of Number of advance companies from Japan to
companies
BRICs
5,000 4,938
4,500 【Other Features】
4,040
4,000
•Number of companies advance to
3,500
Russia locates next to Japanis the
3,000
least among BRICs.
2,500
2,000
1,500
269
1,000 544 50 192
500 97 263
0 Number of affiliated company
Brasil(B) Number of advance company
Russia(R)
India(I)
China(C)

Source:Toyokeizai Kaigai shinshuty kigyou souran 2005

- 14 -

Comapies in Japan and BRICs:to Japan
There are most advance companies from China and they reach by 4 times
India of the 2nd place.
As compared with the number of advance companies from Japan, there are
few advance companies to Japan also in which country.

Number of Advance companies from BRICs countries
companies
80
71
60 •The advance from Brazil and Russia
is not active (both single figure),
50
and there is large gap with the
40 number which Japanese companies
30
have advancedt.

20
13
10
3
1
0
Brasil(B) Russia(R) India(I) China(C)

*”Advance company” means the company which has The capital of 50 million yen or more
and a foreign funding ratio are 49% or more.
Source:Toyokeizai Gaishikei Kigyou Souran 2005

- 15 -

Human exchange:Residents
There are more foreign residents in Japan than the number of Japanese
resident abroad.
There are most persons in Japan from China, and the number amounts to
about 500,000 people.

Number of resident in/from BRICs
person

500,000
450,000
462,396
400,000 •Brazil and Japan seems to have
350,000
247,400 active human exchanges as
300,000
existence because of Japanese
250,000
200,000
descent.
150,000
70,782
100,000 6,734 14,234
77,184
50,000 1,702
1,939 Number of foreign resident in
0
Japan
Brasil(B) Number of Japanese resident
Russia(R) abroad
India(I)
China(C)

Source:：MOFA Kaigai Zairyuu Houjinsuu Toukei Chousa 2004
Foundation NYUKAN associates Zairyuu Gaikokujin Toukei 2004
- 16 -

Human exchange:Visitors
Human exchanges with China are the most active and the visit-to-China
person from Japan reaches in about 2.2 million people per year.
With BRICs countries other than China, only about 100,000 people exchange.

Visitors from Japan/BRICs
person
2,500,000
2,254,800 【Other Features】
2,000,000
•People from BRICs countries other
than China visit less than 100,000.
1,500,000
•Only Brasil shows more visitors to
1,000,000 Japan than from Japan.
703,758

500,000 79,692
43,738
45,450
39,753 73,734
77,996
0 Visitors from BRICs
Brasil(B)
Russia(R) Visitors from Japan
India(I)
China(C)

Source:JNTO Visitor Arrivals and Japanese Overseas Travelers 2004

- 17 -

Japanese language education in BRICs
There are most Japanese students (about 400 thousand) and teachers
(about 10 thousand) in China in BRICs.
In Brasil where number of Japanese students is the second most among
BRICs doesn’t reach 20 thousand students. Japanese language education in
BRICs can never say that it is active.
Japanese students and teachers in BRICs
people
400,000 387,924

350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000
451 451
50,000 19,744 256
9,644 6,031
5,446 The number of Japanese
0
teachers
Brasil(B) The number of Japanese
Russia(R) students
India(I)
China(C)

Source:Japan Foundation Survey Report on Japanese-Language Education Abroad 2003: Present Condition of
Overseas Japanese-Language Education-Summary

- 18 -

Feartures of BRICs countries
Brasil(B)
Brasil(B)
•There is much youth population and potential market growth possibility can be expected
very much.
•Subsequently to China, there are many Japanese students.
•A possibility that about 270,000 people from Brazil in Japan can utilize for strengthening
ties with Japan and Brazil is high.

Russia(R)
Russia(R)
•Only population decreases in BRICs and charm is missing from a viewpoint of digging up
of a new consumer.
•HDI is the highest in BRICs.

India(I)
India(I)
•Will be greatest population in 2025 by exceeding China.
•The average age is the lowest in BRICs and the labor force is very abundant over the
future.
•The subject which should be improved such as HDI is less than a world average.

China(C)
China(C)
•Size of population and number of people speak Japanese are attractive for Japan.
•Since many Japanese companies have advanced, it is hard to attain differentiation with
the competition other company.
- 19 -

Contact

#1034 Chiyoda Platform Square
3-21 Kandanishikichou, Chiyoda-ku,
Tokyo 101-0054 Japan

TEL/FAX: +81-3-3777-5805
email：post@borderzero.com
writer: Masaya Fukumoto

- 20 -

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