It is one of the great ironies of life that each generation believes its experiences are unique. The reality is that we have seen this movie before—with different actors, plot twists, and technological advancements. The basic plot seems to push along a hauntingly familiar path. In 1997, Neil Howe and William Strauss introduced the concept of Fourth Turning. They divided the population into four generational archetypes: Hero, Artist, Prophet, and Nomad. Each generation consists of people who were born and came of age at the same period in history. They had similar experiences and thus gravitated toward similar attitudes. The change of control from one generation to the next is called a “turning” in the Strauss/Howe scheme. On a Fourth Turning, the cycle repeats, sparking a generational crisis. When Howe uses that word, he doesn’t mean a short period of difficulty. He means an existential crisis—one in which society’s strongest institutions collapse (or are severely challenged and stressed) and national survival is in serious doubt. By Neil Howe’s timeline, we are today about halfway through the Fourth Turning’s Crisis phase.

1. 14 Signs the World
is on the Verge of
Generational
Chaos

2. In 1997, Neil Howe and
William Strauss introduced
the concept of Fourth Turning.

3. They divided the population into
four generational archetypes:
Hero, Artist, Prophet, and Nomad.

4. Each generation consists of
people who were born and
came of age at the same period
in history.

5. They had similar experiences and
thus gravitated toward similar
attitudes.

6. The change of control from
one generation to the next is
called a “turning”.

7. On a Fourth Turning, the
cycle repeats, sparking a
generational crisis.

8. When Howe uses that word, he
doesn’t mean a short period of
difficulty.

9. He means an existential crisis—
one in which society’s
strongest institutions collapse
and national survival is in
serious doubt.

10. When Howe uses that
word, he doesn’t mean a
short period of difficulty.

11. He means an existential crisis—
one in which society’s strongest
institutions collapse and
national survival is in serious
doubt.

12. By Neil Howe’s timeline, we
are today about halfway
through the Fourth Turning’s
Crisis phase.

13. If this Fourth Turning is like
previous ones, here is what
we should see…

16. See how the following Fourth
Turning characteristics match
today’s landscape…

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18. Rising Community

19. Think of all the disasters we
have seen in recent times,
and the public response to
them.

20. Following the recent tragic events
in Baton Rouge, Minneapolis, and
Dallas, communities have drawn
together to support their
members and each other.

21. We see the same behavior in
other stressful events, eg “Je
suis Charlie,” the motto that
emerged from the January 2015
Paris shootings.

22. Strengthening
Government

23. We live in a time when most
voters would rather enlarge
government than shrink it.

24. We can expect to see
stronger government action
regardless of who wins this
year’s presidential election.

25. Party Realignment

26. Donald Trump is envisions
changing the Republican Party
into something quite different
than it was just four years ago,
a “workers’ party”.

27. We will see a lot of shifting
and movement between the
two parties as they redefine
themselves.

28. Introverted
Foreign Policy

29. Fifteen years in, the US is
increasingly tired of the War
on Terror.

30. Donald Trump gained traction in
the primaries with a less
aggressive approach to foreign
engagement.

31. Technology to Scale

32. The Internet has entered
adulthood. It’s become a
platform on which to build new
capabilities: virtual reality,
home automation, and more.

33. Rising Income
Equality

34. The years of ZIRP (zero interest
rate policy) and QE (quantitative
easing) served mainly to drive up
asset prices, enriching those who
are already wealthy and doing
little for everyone else.

35. Now a backlash is building
against wealth concentration.

36. We may see attempts to raise
taxes on the wealthy, higher
working-class wages, and
other measures intended to
“level the playing field.”

37. Wage Disruption

38. We’ve seen major retailers hike
hourly pay in the last year;
$15/hour minimum wages
passed in California and
elsewhere; and there are
growing calls for labor to get a
bigger piece of the pie.

39. Fertility Bust

40. Birth rates are now near or
even significantly below
replacement rate throughout
the developed world.

41. Much of the Millennial
Generation feels financially
or otherwise unprepared for
parenthood.

42. Falling Immigration

43. Both the US and Europe are trying
to control immigrant flows.
Refugees from the Middle East are
the exception in an otherwise less
migratory world.

44. Falling Crime

45. Criminal activity varies
tremendously depending on
where you are, but overall rates
are down considerably from the
1980s and 1990s.

46. Strengthening
Family

47. This one may seem counterintuitive
with birth rates down and young
people reluctant to marry.

48. It actually seems that people delay
marriage today precisely because
they respect it so much. They want
to do it right or not at all.

49. And once Millennials do have
kids, they take parenting very
seriously. As the Hero archetype,
Millennials amazingly protective
of their children.

50. Practical Culture

51. The financial crisis has set a
new standard of frugality.

52. Think “sharing” economy, like
Uber and Airbnb, and “fast
fashion” like Zara or H&M.

53. Rediscovered Norms

54. The Fourth Turning is a time
when people rediscover
values and norms.

55. That process can take many
shapes, of course, but we may
again see the “all-together” ethos
that brought the US through the
Depression and World War II.

56. Overprotective
Parenting

57. Today’s cautious parents won’t let
children out of their sight—and
often with good reason.

58. As the crisis unfolds, we should
see growing concern for
protecting children from harm.

59. The Worst Is
Yet to Come

60. Neil How says we are only halfway
through; and if the next few years
play out like past Fourth Turnings,
the worst is yet to come.

61. The good news is that we still have
some time. We can prepare our lives
to deal with the coming changes.

62. Join Hundreds of Thousands
of Readers of John Mauldin’s
Free Weekly Newsletter
Follow Mauldin as he uncovers the truth
behind, and beyond, the financial
headlines in his free publication, Thoughts
from the Frontline.
Free Instant Access