3. Today’s Panelists
3
Mr. Steve Norton Mr. Charlie
Arlinghaus
Mr. Jeff
McDonald
Executive Director,
NH Center for
Public Policy
President of The
Josiah Bartlett Center
for Public Policy
Chief Investment
Officer, Enterprise
Investment Advisors
7. NH – Less of a decline, but a slower recovery
92.0
94.0
96.0
98.0
100.0
102.0
104.0
106.0
108.0
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Dec2007=100
Index of Total NonFarm Employment
US NH MA
New Hampshire
United States
Massachusetts
8. Economic Forecast?
NEEP Forecast Summary Comparisons
Average Annual Rates of Growth October 2015 Forecast
Actual
2010-2014
Forecast
2014-2018
Gross State Product
GSP-New Hampshire 3.3 2.5
GSP-New England 1.4 2.6
GDP-United States 1.9 2.8
Total Non-Farm Jobs
Jobs-New Hampshire 0.9 1.4
Jobs-New England 1.2 1.4
Jobs-United States 1.6 2.1
Moderate Growth Anticipated
9. Economic Consequence of the Market Turmoil
• Negative consequences
Lower stock prices impacts consumer spending through
wealth effect and businesses’ cost of capital.
Stronger value of the $ weakens the trade balance.
Emerging market economies struggle to adjust to lower
commodity prices.
• Positive consequences
Lower oil prices is a net positive as stronger consumer
spending more than offsets the hit to the energy industry.
Lower mortgage rates supports housing and refinancing
activity.
Reduces over-valuation in asset markets and chances that
a bubble will form. Allows Fed to raise rates more slowly.
Source: Moody’s Analytics, September 1, 2015
12. Size of Labor Force
Working-Age Population (Age 20-64)
• Assuming no migration the working-
age population in New Hampshire will
decline nearly 10% in the state.
• The northern rural counties will see
larger declines.
• Carroll County sees the biggest
declines.
% Change
2010-2030
US 1.0%
NH -9.7%
Strafford -2.4%
Hillsborough -5.5%
Cheshire -8.9%
Merrimack -10.2%
Grafton -11.2%
Rockingham -12.3%
Sullivan -14.7%
Belknap -16.3%
Coos -20.0%
Carroll -24.4%
Source: Daniel Lee, Plymouth State University
14. New Hampshire’s Population Numbers
Depend on Immigrants
New Hampshire County Net Migration from 2010 to 2014
Census Estimates Net 2014
County Foreign Born Domestic Migration Residents
Belknap County, New Hampshire 293 292 585 60,305
Carroll County, New Hampshire 81 82 163 47,399
Cheshire County, New Hampshire 157 -1,193 -1,036 76,115
Coos County, New Hampshire 77 -799 -722 31,653
Grafton County, New Hampshire 1,105 -475 630 89,658
Hillsborough County, New Hampshire 4,075 -5,413 -1,338 405,184
Merrimack County, New Hampshire 871 -530 341 147,171
Rockingham County, New Hampshire 844 2,937 3,781 300,621
Strafford County, New Hampshire 531 505 1,036 125,604
Sullivan County, New Hampshire 103 -530 -427 43,103
8,137 -5,124 3,013 1,326,813
17. Immigrants and Native Education Patterns
6.40%
29.80% 29.60%
22.10%
12.20%
19.20%
23.00%
19.20% 19.70%
18.90%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Less than high
school graduate
High school
graduate (includes
equivalency)
Some college or
associate's degree
Bachelor's degree Graduate or
professional
degree
New Hampshire Native and Foreign Born Population Over 25
by Educational Attainment, 2013
Native Foreign born
18. 2013 Foreign Born with Bachelors Degree or Better
2013 ACS, , B06009 Foreign Born Foreign Born
Rank State Percentage BA or Better Population 25 and Over
4 Vermont 41.5% 8,902 21,459
9 New Hampshire 38.6% 24,395 63,196
13 Massachusetts 35.6% 319,823 898,587
14 Maine 35.0% 12,646 36,171
16 Connecticut 33.6% 145,832 434,636
43 Rhode Island 22.0% 25,460 115,548
New England 34.2% 537,058 1,569,597
18
New Hampshire Foreign Born Highly Educated
19. Immigration Expands the Economy
• Immigrants increase economic efficiency by reducing
labor shortages in low- and high-skilled markets because
their educational backgrounds fill holes in the native-born
labor market.
• Immigrants’ educational backgrounds typically
complement, rather than displace, the skills of the native-
born labor market.
THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMMIGRATION, Diana Furchtgott-Roth,
Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, February 2013
20. New Hampshire foreign born
Highly-Educated
• Four out of ten of New Hampshire’s foreign-born
residents have a bachelor’s degree or better, ranking
New Hampshire among the top ten states in the country
in the education level of foreign-born residents.
• Despite accounting for less than 6 percent of the state
population, the foreign born account for nearly one in ten
New Hampshire residents with a graduate or
professional degree.
21. • In 2013 New Hampshire foreign-born workers
earned about $2 billion in wages working in New
Hampshire industries, or about 6.4 percent of
the $29 billion in wages earned in the state.
• Over one third of those earnings were in
management, business, financial, computer and
mathematical occupations.
New Hampshire Foreign Born
Contribute to the Economy
22. • An expansion of the high-skilled visa program would
create an estimated 2,000 new jobs in New
Hampshire by 2020.
• By 2045, this expansion would add around $717
million to Gross State Product and increase
personal income by more than $706 million.
Source: Frederick R. Treyz, Corey Stottlemyer, and Rod Motamedi, “Key
Components of Immigration Reform: An Analysis of the Economic Effects of
Creating a Pathway to Legal Status, Expanding High-Skilled Visas, and
Reforming Lesser-Skilled Visas” (Amherst, MA: Regional Economic Models,
Inc., 2013).
But they could contribute more…
23. National Research on Foreign Born Business Owners
• Despite accounting for 13% of the population,
immigrants start one quarter of the new
businesses in the US.
• Immigrant founders started 52% of all new
Silicon Valley companies between 1995 and
2005.
• 21% of INC. 500 CEOs are foreign born.
• Source: INC. Magazine, “The Most Entrepreneurial Group in America
Wasn’t Born in America”.
24. New Hampshire Center
for Public Policy Studies
Want to learn more?
• Online: nhpolicy.org
• Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
• Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
• Our blog: policyblognh.org
• (603) 226-2500
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
Board of Directors
James Putnam, Chair
David Alukonis
John Herney
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
Catherine A. Provencher
Todd I. Selig
Michael Whitney
Daniel Wolf
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
Directors Emeritus
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
25. Mr. Charlie M. Arlinghaus
President of The Josiah Bartlett Center for
Public Policy
26. Everything’s Better in Texas
Job Growth Since the Recession:
-0.11%
11.75%
0.44%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New Hampshire Texas US, less TX
27. Wrong Side of the Border
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mass. adding jobs almost twice as fast as NH
MA NH
30. Who Pays Business Taxes?
Employees Firms Employees Pct of Total
20 or more 4,889 441,233 80.3%
5 or more 13,501 59,236 94.5%
Employers 30,522 548,985 100%
Nonemployers 102,310
Total 132,310
2014 BPT: 15,685 taxpayers
10 year range: 11,375 - 15,685
31. Budget Considerations
• Business Taxes
i. Rate reduction
ii. Up 15.5%
• HHS $27m behind and falling
• Taxes up $37m over budget
• New money means new ideas
32. Shockingly High
2015 2014
New England 16.62 15.43
New Hampshire 16.09 15.16
Vermont 14.34 14.63
Maine 12.96 12.60
USA 10.49 10.50
Tennessee 9.36 9.49
Texas #11 8.72 8.97
33. The NH Penalty: 46%
$500
$700
$900
$1,100
$1,300
$1,500
$1,700
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002
NH Pays $527m More Than if Ave
NH
AVE
75. As the employment picture has continued to improve, we will see more demand (albeit
slow) for housing and lower mortgage rates will aide first time home buyers and those
looking to move up.
There is proof that young people are leaving the nest:
Positives for Growth
77. • Lastly, although the Fed has increased the
Fed Funds rate, it remains
• accommodative in its monetary policy.
• It remains fully aware of the global macroeconomic
• picture and its impact on the US economy.
Positives for Growth
80. Thank you for attending our
Economic Outlook Luncheon!
81. GNCC Upcoming Events
TD Bank AM Networking – January 28th from 8:00 AM - 9:30 AM
at Life Coping Inc.
February Business After Hours – Wednesday, February 10th
from 5:30 PM – 7:30 PM at Homewood Suites Gateway Hill
Hosted by Homewood Suites, High Hopes Foundation,
Alphagraphics, and the Web Action Group
State of the City – Wednesday, February 10th from 7:30 AM – 9:30 AM
at the Event Center at Courtyard by Marriott Nashua
Small Business Expo – Wednesday, March 2nd from 5:00 PM - 7:30 PM
13th Annual Eminence Awards – Friday, March 25th
from 12:00 Noon – 2 PM at Sky Meadow Country Club