SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 81
Download to read offline
Welcome to the
Economic Outlook Luncheon
Mrs. Lori Piper
SVP/Senior Commercial Lending Officer,
Enterprise Bank
Today’s Panelists
3
Mr. Steve Norton Mr. Charlie
Arlinghaus
Mr. Jeff
McDonald
Executive Director,
NH Center for
Public Policy
President of The
Josiah Bartlett Center
for Public Policy
Chief Investment
Officer, Enterprise
Investment Advisors
Mr. Steve Norton
Executive Director, NH Center for Public Policy
Economics
Short and Long Term
NH’s Economy
$-
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
$7,000,000
$8,000,000
New Hampshire Total Compensation Paid by Selected Industries
(Thousands of Dollars)
Manufacturing + High Tech
Healthcare
Retail Trade
Finance
Construction
Education
Real Estate
Local and State Government
Mfg Only
Short Term
Continuing Uncertainty
NH – Less of a decline, but a slower recovery
92.0
94.0
96.0
98.0
100.0
102.0
104.0
106.0
108.0
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
May-15
Dec2007=100
Index of Total NonFarm Employment
US NH MA
New Hampshire
United States
Massachusetts
Economic Forecast?
NEEP Forecast Summary Comparisons
Average Annual Rates of Growth October 2015 Forecast
Actual
2010-2014
Forecast
2014-2018
Gross State Product
GSP-New Hampshire 3.3 2.5
GSP-New England 1.4 2.6
GDP-United States 1.9 2.8
Total Non-Farm Jobs
Jobs-New Hampshire 0.9 1.4
Jobs-New England 1.2 1.4
Jobs-United States 1.6 2.1
Moderate Growth Anticipated
Economic Consequence of the Market Turmoil
• Negative consequences
 Lower stock prices impacts consumer spending through
wealth effect and businesses’ cost of capital.
 Stronger value of the $ weakens the trade balance.
 Emerging market economies struggle to adjust to lower
commodity prices.
• Positive consequences
 Lower oil prices is a net positive as stronger consumer
spending more than offsets the hit to the energy industry.
 Lower mortgage rates supports housing and refinancing
activity.
 Reduces over-valuation in asset markets and chances that
a bubble will form. Allows Fed to raise rates more slowly.
Source: Moody’s Analytics, September 1, 2015
Overall Risk Index
Wealth Effect 40%, trade 40%, energy 20%
Sources: BLS, Moody’s Analytics
Long Term
Labor Force Challenges
Size of Labor Force
Working-Age Population (Age 20-64)
• Assuming no migration the working-
age population in New Hampshire will
decline nearly 10% in the state.
• The northern rural counties will see
larger declines.
• Carroll County sees the biggest
declines.
% Change
2010-2030
US 1.0%
NH -9.7%
Strafford -2.4%
Hillsborough -5.5%
Cheshire -8.9%
Merrimack -10.2%
Grafton -11.2%
Rockingham -12.3%
Sullivan -14.7%
Belknap -16.3%
Coos -20.0%
Carroll -24.4%
Source: Daniel Lee, Plymouth State University
13
New Hampshire’s Population Numbers
Depend on Immigrants
New Hampshire County Net Migration from 2010 to 2014
Census Estimates Net 2014
County Foreign Born Domestic Migration Residents
Belknap County, New Hampshire 293 292 585 60,305
Carroll County, New Hampshire 81 82 163 47,399
Cheshire County, New Hampshire 157 -1,193 -1,036 76,115
Coos County, New Hampshire 77 -799 -722 31,653
Grafton County, New Hampshire 1,105 -475 630 89,658
Hillsborough County, New Hampshire 4,075 -5,413 -1,338 405,184
Merrimack County, New Hampshire 871 -530 341 147,171
Rockingham County, New Hampshire 844 2,937 3,781 300,621
Strafford County, New Hampshire 531 505 1,036 125,604
Sullivan County, New Hampshire 103 -530 -427 43,103
8,137 -5,124 3,013 1,326,813
15.6%
13.9%
12.9%
5.7%
4.3%
3.4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Massachusetts Connecticut Rhode Island New
Hampshire
Vermont Maine
Foreign Born Population in New England States (2013)
Percent of Total Population
New Hampshire Share of Foreign Born Less than
US, Regional
5.2%
16.1%
9.7%
22.9%
16.3%
14.7%
8.8%
4.4%
1.9%
0.5%
6.0%
9.4%
34.6%
17.0%
12.8%
10.0%
6.5%
3.3%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Under 5
years
5 to 17
years
18 to 24
years
25 to 44
years
45 to 54
years
55 to 64
years
65 to 74
years
75 to 84
years
85 years
and over
New Hampshire Native and Foreign Born Population by Age, 2013
Native Foreign born
New Hampshire Foreign Born Concentrated in Prime Working Age
Immigrants and Native Education Patterns
6.40%
29.80% 29.60%
22.10%
12.20%
19.20%
23.00%
19.20% 19.70%
18.90%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Less than high
school graduate
High school
graduate (includes
equivalency)
Some college or
associate's degree
Bachelor's degree Graduate or
professional
degree
New Hampshire Native and Foreign Born Population Over 25
by Educational Attainment, 2013
Native Foreign born
2013 Foreign Born with Bachelors Degree or Better
2013 ACS, , B06009 Foreign Born Foreign Born
Rank State Percentage BA or Better Population 25 and Over
4 Vermont 41.5% 8,902 21,459
9 New Hampshire 38.6% 24,395 63,196
13 Massachusetts 35.6% 319,823 898,587
14 Maine 35.0% 12,646 36,171
16 Connecticut 33.6% 145,832 434,636
43 Rhode Island 22.0% 25,460 115,548
New England 34.2% 537,058 1,569,597
18
New Hampshire Foreign Born Highly Educated
Immigration Expands the Economy
• Immigrants increase economic efficiency by reducing
labor shortages in low- and high-skilled markets because
their educational backgrounds fill holes in the native-born
labor market.
• Immigrants’ educational backgrounds typically
complement, rather than displace, the skills of the native-
born labor market.
THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMMIGRATION, Diana Furchtgott-Roth,
Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, February 2013
New Hampshire foreign born
Highly-Educated
• Four out of ten of New Hampshire’s foreign-born
residents have a bachelor’s degree or better, ranking
New Hampshire among the top ten states in the country
in the education level of foreign-born residents.
• Despite accounting for less than 6 percent of the state
population, the foreign born account for nearly one in ten
New Hampshire residents with a graduate or
professional degree.
• In 2013 New Hampshire foreign-born workers
earned about $2 billion in wages working in New
Hampshire industries, or about 6.4 percent of
the $29 billion in wages earned in the state.
• Over one third of those earnings were in
management, business, financial, computer and
mathematical occupations.
New Hampshire Foreign Born
Contribute to the Economy
• An expansion of the high-skilled visa program would
create an estimated 2,000 new jobs in New
Hampshire by 2020.
• By 2045, this expansion would add around $717
million to Gross State Product and increase
personal income by more than $706 million.
Source: Frederick R. Treyz, Corey Stottlemyer, and Rod Motamedi, “Key
Components of Immigration Reform: An Analysis of the Economic Effects of
Creating a Pathway to Legal Status, Expanding High-Skilled Visas, and
Reforming Lesser-Skilled Visas” (Amherst, MA: Regional Economic Models,
Inc., 2013).
But they could contribute more…
National Research on Foreign Born Business Owners
• Despite accounting for 13% of the population,
immigrants start one quarter of the new
businesses in the US.
• Immigrant founders started 52% of all new
Silicon Valley companies between 1995 and
2005.
• 21% of INC. 500 CEOs are foreign born.
• Source: INC. Magazine, “The Most Entrepreneurial Group in America
Wasn’t Born in America”.
New Hampshire Center
for Public Policy Studies
Want to learn more?
• Online: nhpolicy.org
• Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
• Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
• Our blog: policyblognh.org
• (603) 226-2500
“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”
Board of Directors
James Putnam, Chair
David Alukonis
John Herney
Eric Herr
Dianne Mercier
Catherine A. Provencher
Todd I. Selig
Michael Whitney
Daniel Wolf
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
Directors Emeritus
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Donna Sytek
Brian F. Walsh
Mr. Charlie M. Arlinghaus
President of The Josiah Bartlett Center for
Public Policy
Everything’s Better in Texas
Job Growth Since the Recession:
-0.11%
11.75%
0.44%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New Hampshire Texas US, less TX
Wrong Side of the Border
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mass. adding jobs almost twice as fast as NH
MA NH
Location
Transport to
Market
Costs
Supplier
Labor
Costs
State and
Local
Taxes
Total
Measured
Costs
Nashville, TN $426 $159 $118 $703
Lexington, KY 423 186 106 715
St. Louis, MO 419 172 134 725
Bloomington, IL 417 202 162 781
Kalamazoo, MI 430 244 116 790
Terre Haute, IN 413 209 168 790
Marysville, OH 427 219 169 815
“Saturn and State Economic Development”, Bartik et al
Leapfrogging Maryland
TAX COMPETITION
Worst 10 8.50%
New Hampshire #39 8.20%
Massachusetts 8.00%
Median State [TN] 6.50%
Florida 5.50%
Top 11 5.00%
Texas
Who Pays Business Taxes?
Employees Firms Employees Pct of Total
20 or more 4,889 441,233 80.3%
5 or more 13,501 59,236 94.5%
Employers 30,522 548,985 100%
Nonemployers 102,310
Total 132,310
2014 BPT: 15,685 taxpayers
10 year range: 11,375 - 15,685
Budget Considerations
• Business Taxes
i. Rate reduction
ii. Up 15.5%
• HHS $27m behind and falling
• Taxes up $37m over budget
• New money means new ideas
Shockingly High
2015 2014
New England 16.62 15.43
New Hampshire 16.09 15.16
Vermont 14.34 14.63
Maine 12.96 12.60
USA 10.49 10.50
Tennessee 9.36 9.49
Texas #11 8.72 8.97
The NH Penalty: 46%
$500
$700
$900
$1,100
$1,300
$1,500
$1,700
2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002
NH Pays $527m More Than if Ave
NH
AVE
Charlie Arlinghaus
Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy
arlinghaus@jbartlett.org
Mr. Jeff McDonald
Chief Investment Officer,
SVP for Enterprise
Investment Advisors
Market
Update: China,
Oil & The Fed
Market Update:
China
China is second largest economy in the world, with an expanding consumer class
and is also a large consumer of energy and raw materials.
China
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
China’s economic decline will impact the overall global economy but that impact will
vary from one country to another.
China
Today, Chinese economic growth has slowed from a historical 10% target to a
revised 6.5% and may be as low as 4%.
China
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
In response to the economic slowdown, the Chinese government has allowed its
currency to depreciate in order to make their exported goods more attractive to
consumers outside of China.
Manufacturing growth has slowed to the lowest level since 2009.
China
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
However, the depreciation of the Chinese Yuan sent a message to investors that
growth in China is slowing more than the government has reported.
China
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
The lack of confidence in the Chinese government to orchestrate a solid recovery
has diminished greatly (even after adding $30 billion to the market last month)
causing the Shanghai Chinese market to fall 15% year-to-date. Now down 20%, it
has entered a bear market for the 2nd time in 7 months.
China
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
Piling in: There are many new investors in China’s equity market.
The Chinese stock market has boomed as millions of citizens have taken up trading.
Volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets through May in 2015 has nearly
equaled the trade volume in all of 2014.
China
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
But these new entrants are treating the equity market like a casino…
China
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
…and borrowing large sums of money to buy stock to make their fortunes.
China
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
China Syndrome: The Contagion Effect
Emerging market countries have been negatively impacted as investors fear a
contagion effect in those countries closely aligned with China, such as Singapore,
which could see its growth decrease by 1.4% for every 1% decrease in China’s
economy.
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
95
100
105
110
115 Thaibaht/USD
120
125
130
Jan'15
Source:Bloomberg
Jul'15 Jan'16
IndexJan14,2015=100(inverted) SpotExchangeRates
Malaysian ringgit/USD
South Korean won/USD
Taiwan dollar/USD
Since China is the largest Asian exporter, a cheaper Chinese currency initiates a
selloff in every other Asian export country’s currency.
China Syndrome: The Contagion Effect
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
-0.8%
-1.9%
-2.4%
-2.5%
-3.3%
-4.0%
-5.2%
-6.1%
-7.4%
-8.0% -7.0% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0%
South Africanrand
Russian rouble
Mexican peso
Turkishlira
South Koreanwon
Taiwanese dollar
Malaysian ringgit
Singapore dollar
Chineseyuan
YTD performance
against USD(1/15/16)
Asia is not alone: The Euro, Yen, Rand, Ruble and Peso are also weaker.
Source: NorthernTrust
China Syndrome: The Contagion Effect
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
Some developed international countries depend greatly on China for a large
percentage of their overall exports.
China Syndrome: The Contagion Effect
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
A slowdown in China will have a direct impact on the Eurozone region.
China Syndrome: The Contagion Effect
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
But the European Central Bank is committed to increasing growth and inflation in the
Eurozone which is why it will continue to add liquidity to the market and keep interest
low in order to make credit cheap and boost asset prices (sounds like what the Fed
did in the US in the last 7 years).
China Syndrome: The Contagion Effect
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
Market Update:
Oil
Commodity Rout: Oil
Oil has decreased dramatically due to the
decline in the global economy driven by
China’s economic slowdown.
Oil declines have been driven by over
supply issues caused by increased
production from new players such as US
shale producers.
Oil continued to slide and breached the $30 barrel level, not seen since 2004.
Currently, oil is at $29 a barrel, which is a 12-year low. This year alone oil has
lost 20% and is off 52% from its 2015 peak.
Why?
2 ReasonsDEMAND SUPPLY
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
In addition, Venezuela and Nigeria are adding to supply and now Iran is coming back
online after the ban on its oil exports were lifted.
Also, OPEC (The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), lead by the
Saudis, decided not cut production at its last meeting in order to eliminate
competition and protect its market share. As a result, there is a dramatic imbalance
between supply and demand.
Commodity Rout: Oil
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
Concerns with the decline in energy prices and its impact on highly levered energy
companies has fanned the bankruptcy fires and the losses in banks’ loan portfolios
(especially regional banks in energy producing areas), which could pressure bank
earnings.
Source: Northern Trust, Bloomberg, Barclays. Monthly data through 12/31/2015. Averages of data over period charted.
Commodity Rout: Oil
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
Positives and negatives for lower oil prices:
POSTIVES
+ US consumers benefit directly because
oil is priced in dollars and our dollar has
strengthened which means the lower
gas prices has added approximately
$700 billion in consumer’s pockets.
+ Other benefits from lower gas prices
have been reported recently in stronger
restaurant and beverage sales and
home improvement revenue i.e. Home
Depot, Lowe’s, etc.
NEGATIVES
− Since oil is priced in dollars, the effect of
a stronger dollar has made oil/gas more
expensive in those countries that have
been reducing the value of their
currency in order to remain export
competitive.
− In this case, energy and gas prices
acted like a tax increase at a time when
consumers need a tax cut.
Commodity Rout: Oil
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
Domestic Front
Consumer balance sheet is in better shape today: Consumer debt loads as
percentage of income are 30% lower today than they were in 2007.
Domestic Front
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
Consumer confidence and disposable income is still high:
Source: NorthernTrust
Domestic Front
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
Business confidence is still strong:
Source: NorthernTrust
Domestic Front
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
Market Update:
The Fed
Domestic Front
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
The Fed raised the Fed Funds rate for the first time in 10 years, causing some
concern because it makes the dollar stronger which makes our exports more
expensive versus our trading partners.
Positives of higher rates:
 Helps individuals dependent on fixed-income and adjusts risk-taking.
 Higher short-term rates help bank net interest margins = ability to expand credit.
 Higher interest rates = US dollar denominated assets more attractive = pushing
longer-term interest rates lower.
The Domestic Front: The Fed
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
US bank balance sheets are stronger than ever. They have double the reserve
ratios to protect against crisis situations like 2008.
Opportunity???
Bank earnings have been good…Citigroup posted best annual profit in a decade,
yet, financial shares index is down 13% year-to-date.
The Domestic Front
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
The slowdown in the global economy is impacting the US economy but not as much as
other countries.
Why?
US only exports about 15% of the goods produced but the stronger dollar has impacted
the manufacturing sector.
.
The Domestic Front
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
The US is mostly a service economy, not impacted by the strength of the dollar.
Source: NorthernTrust
The Domestic Front
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
It’s NOT all a bed of roses…
US companies still face some headwinds in earnings growth.
Fourth quarter earnings declined from 1% to (3.7%) which explains why we saw
flattish equity returns last year.
Earning growth estimates for 2016 have been ratcheted down from 10.3% to 7.6%
due to the global slowdown.
.
Earnings
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
Currently, fear is driving stock prices lower…..CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange)
volatility index often referred to as the fear gauge is above the its 10 year average.
As a result, fear has pushed all major US stock indexes into correction territory,
which is reflecting declines of more than 10% from recent peaks.
Fear
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
Positives for continued growth in US:
Positives
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
UnemploymentRate
Employment has remained strong…recent NFP was over $292k, which was above the
average estimate.
Positives for Growth
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
Wage growth is still weaker than desired but was still positive at +2.5% year-over-
year.
Already mentioned “cheap” oil/gas = savings for consumption. Remember consumer
is 70% of GDP in U.S.
Source: NorthernTrust
Positives for Growth
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
Strong corporate balance sheets and huge cash levels to the tune of estimated $1.7
trillion.
Plenty of firepower to buy equities.
Source:Bloomberg
Over $700 Billion in
Personal Savings
Over $2.7 Trillion in
Money Markets
Positives for Growth
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
Source: Northern Trust, Bloomberg. Weekly data through 1/1/2016 (*current).
Longer-term interest rates will probably remain range bound between 2% - 2.5%.
Probably will stay at the lower end of the range due to the following:
 Expectations of inflation remaining low for the foreseeable future.
 Safe haven status of US treasury bonds during market turmoil/volatility.
 Higher yields compared to global trading partners make US bonds more attractive
and the demand pushes prices higher and bond yields lower.
10-YEAR
SOVEREIGNS
CURRENT*
YIELD
12/31/14
YIELD
YTD CHANGE
(BPS)
CURRENTSPREAD
TO U.S.(BPS)
1YRFORWARD
YIELD
5YRFORWARD
YIELD
United States 2.27 2.17 10 - 2.50 2.88
United Kingdom 1.96 1.76 20 -31 2.20 2.76
Japan 0.27 0.33 -6 -200 0.37 0.94
Canada 1.39 1.79 -39 -88 1.57 2.35
Germany 0.63 0.54 9 -164 0.78 1.43
France 0.99 0.83 16 -128 1.19 2.03
Italy 1.60 1.89 -29 -67 1.85 2.74
Spain 1.77 1.61 16 -50 2.07 3.20
Switzerland -0.06 0.32 -38 -233 0.05 0.58
Positives for Growth
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
Although we have seen a huge improvement in real estate prices we have not benefited
directly from an increase in new construction.
Every 250,000 homes built translates to approximately 1 million jobs created;
we think that housing starts could end up at 2 million annually.
Positives for Growth
Source:
NorthernTrust
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
As the employment picture has continued to improve, we will see more demand (albeit
slow) for housing and lower mortgage rates will aide first time home buyers and those
looking to move up.
There is proof that young people are leaving the nest:
Positives for Growth
…and forming new households.
Positives for Growth
© 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
• Lastly, although the Fed has increased the
Fed Funds rate, it remains
• accommodative in its monetary policy.
• It remains fully aware of the global macroeconomic
• picture and its impact on the US economy.
Positives for Growth
Thank you!
Jeffrey McDonald
Chief Investment Officer
Jeffrey.McDonald@ebtc.com
Thank you to our Sponsor!
Thank you for attending our
Economic Outlook Luncheon!
GNCC Upcoming Events
TD Bank AM Networking – January 28th from 8:00 AM - 9:30 AM
at Life Coping Inc.
February Business After Hours – Wednesday, February 10th
from 5:30 PM – 7:30 PM at Homewood Suites Gateway Hill
Hosted by Homewood Suites, High Hopes Foundation,
Alphagraphics, and the Web Action Group
State of the City – Wednesday, February 10th from 7:30 AM – 9:30 AM
at the Event Center at Courtyard by Marriott Nashua
Small Business Expo – Wednesday, March 2nd from 5:00 PM - 7:30 PM
13th Annual Eminence Awards – Friday, March 25th
from 12:00 Noon – 2 PM at Sky Meadow Country Club

More Related Content

What's hot

Marcu & Millichap 2016 U.S. MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT FORECAST
Marcu & Millichap 2016 U.S. MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT FORECASTMarcu & Millichap 2016 U.S. MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT FORECAST
Marcu & Millichap 2016 U.S. MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT FORECASTWayne Michael Mumford
 
Raise up wisconsin power point mpl edits
Raise up wisconsin power point mpl editsRaise up wisconsin power point mpl edits
Raise up wisconsin power point mpl editsGrassroots North Shore
 
Paine Wetzel/TCN 2016 Q4 State of the Market: Central Edition
Paine Wetzel/TCN 2016 Q4 State of the Market: Central EditionPaine Wetzel/TCN 2016 Q4 State of the Market: Central Edition
Paine Wetzel/TCN 2016 Q4 State of the Market: Central EditionMarc Hale
 
Unemployment and the trade deficit
Unemployment and the trade deficitUnemployment and the trade deficit
Unemployment and the trade deficitBrien Desilets
 
Presentation to glyndwr university 22 january
Presentation to glyndwr university 22 januaryPresentation to glyndwr university 22 january
Presentation to glyndwr university 22 januaryMark Beatson
 
Escaping the-low-growth-trap-effective-fiscal-initiatives-avoiding-trade-pitf...
Escaping the-low-growth-trap-effective-fiscal-initiatives-avoiding-trade-pitf...Escaping the-low-growth-trap-effective-fiscal-initiatives-avoiding-trade-pitf...
Escaping the-low-growth-trap-effective-fiscal-initiatives-avoiding-trade-pitf...OECD, Economics Department
 
4Q_2015_RetailReport_email
4Q_2015_RetailReport_email4Q_2015_RetailReport_email
4Q_2015_RetailReport_emailPatrick Anthon
 
SVN Live Weekly Property Broadcast 10.07.19
SVN Live Weekly Property Broadcast 10.07.19SVN Live Weekly Property Broadcast 10.07.19
SVN Live Weekly Property Broadcast 10.07.19SVN International Corp.
 
Canada – Slow growth – Liberal party of Canada - December 7, 2016
Canada – Slow growth – Liberal party of Canada  - December 7, 2016Canada – Slow growth – Liberal party of Canada  - December 7, 2016
Canada – Slow growth – Liberal party of Canada - December 7, 2016paul young cpa, cga
 
The Must Do's and Important Don'ts of Nonprofit Advocacy
The Must Do's and Important Don'ts of Nonprofit AdvocacyThe Must Do's and Important Don'ts of Nonprofit Advocacy
The Must Do's and Important Don'ts of Nonprofit AdvocacyGreenlights
 
Trump100 days- Implications for the Property Markets
Trump100 days-  Implications for the Property Markets Trump100 days-  Implications for the Property Markets
Trump100 days- Implications for the Property Markets Guy Masse
 
Addressing Homelessness in King County
Addressing Homelessness in King CountyAddressing Homelessness in King County
Addressing Homelessness in King CountyMcKinsey & Company
 
C&W MARKETBEAT- CAPITAL MARKETS Q4 2016 – #CRE #REALESTATE #CCIM #SIOR @YOURT...
C&W MARKETBEAT- CAPITAL MARKETS Q4 2016 – #CRE #REALESTATE #CCIM #SIOR @YOURT...C&W MARKETBEAT- CAPITAL MARKETS Q4 2016 – #CRE #REALESTATE #CCIM #SIOR @YOURT...
C&W MARKETBEAT- CAPITAL MARKETS Q4 2016 – #CRE #REALESTATE #CCIM #SIOR @YOURT...Guy Masse
 

What's hot (19)

Marcu & Millichap 2016 U.S. MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT FORECAST
Marcu & Millichap 2016 U.S. MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT FORECASTMarcu & Millichap 2016 U.S. MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT FORECAST
Marcu & Millichap 2016 U.S. MULTIFAMILY INVESTMENT FORECAST
 
Raise up wisconsin power point mpl edits
Raise up wisconsin power point mpl editsRaise up wisconsin power point mpl edits
Raise up wisconsin power point mpl edits
 
Paine Wetzel/TCN 2016 Q4 State of the Market: Central Edition
Paine Wetzel/TCN 2016 Q4 State of the Market: Central EditionPaine Wetzel/TCN 2016 Q4 State of the Market: Central Edition
Paine Wetzel/TCN 2016 Q4 State of the Market: Central Edition
 
PSMJ's 2015 A/E/C Market Outlook
PSMJ's 2015 A/E/C Market OutlookPSMJ's 2015 A/E/C Market Outlook
PSMJ's 2015 A/E/C Market Outlook
 
Unemployment and the trade deficit
Unemployment and the trade deficitUnemployment and the trade deficit
Unemployment and the trade deficit
 
Presentation to glyndwr university 22 january
Presentation to glyndwr university 22 januaryPresentation to glyndwr university 22 january
Presentation to glyndwr university 22 january
 
Escaping the-low-growth-trap-effective-fiscal-initiatives-avoiding-trade-pitf...
Escaping the-low-growth-trap-effective-fiscal-initiatives-avoiding-trade-pitf...Escaping the-low-growth-trap-effective-fiscal-initiatives-avoiding-trade-pitf...
Escaping the-low-growth-trap-effective-fiscal-initiatives-avoiding-trade-pitf...
 
What might happen to china in 2016
What might happen to china in 2016What might happen to china in 2016
What might happen to china in 2016
 
4Q_2015_RetailReport_email
4Q_2015_RetailReport_email4Q_2015_RetailReport_email
4Q_2015_RetailReport_email
 
The Importance of Small & Micro Businesses - Boston
The Importance of Small & Micro Businesses - Boston The Importance of Small & Micro Businesses - Boston
The Importance of Small & Micro Businesses - Boston
 
SVN Live Weekly Property Broadcast 10.07.19
SVN Live Weekly Property Broadcast 10.07.19SVN Live Weekly Property Broadcast 10.07.19
SVN Live Weekly Property Broadcast 10.07.19
 
Canada – Slow growth – Liberal party of Canada - December 7, 2016
Canada – Slow growth – Liberal party of Canada  - December 7, 2016Canada – Slow growth – Liberal party of Canada  - December 7, 2016
Canada – Slow growth – Liberal party of Canada - December 7, 2016
 
The Must Do's and Important Don'ts of Nonprofit Advocacy
The Must Do's and Important Don'ts of Nonprofit AdvocacyThe Must Do's and Important Don'ts of Nonprofit Advocacy
The Must Do's and Important Don'ts of Nonprofit Advocacy
 
Coming Soon May 2015
Coming Soon May 2015Coming Soon May 2015
Coming Soon May 2015
 
Trump100 days- Implications for the Property Markets
Trump100 days-  Implications for the Property Markets Trump100 days-  Implications for the Property Markets
Trump100 days- Implications for the Property Markets
 
Addressing Homelessness in King County
Addressing Homelessness in King CountyAddressing Homelessness in King County
Addressing Homelessness in King County
 
Coming Soon February 2016
Coming Soon February 2016Coming Soon February 2016
Coming Soon February 2016
 
November 2015 Coming Soon
November 2015 Coming SoonNovember 2015 Coming Soon
November 2015 Coming Soon
 
C&W MARKETBEAT- CAPITAL MARKETS Q4 2016 – #CRE #REALESTATE #CCIM #SIOR @YOURT...
C&W MARKETBEAT- CAPITAL MARKETS Q4 2016 – #CRE #REALESTATE #CCIM #SIOR @YOURT...C&W MARKETBEAT- CAPITAL MARKETS Q4 2016 – #CRE #REALESTATE #CCIM #SIOR @YOURT...
C&W MARKETBEAT- CAPITAL MARKETS Q4 2016 – #CRE #REALESTATE #CCIM #SIOR @YOURT...
 

Similar to 2016 Economic Outlook Presentation

2015.01.16 legislative symposium presentation ic 2
2015.01.16 legislative symposium presentation ic 22015.01.16 legislative symposium presentation ic 2
2015.01.16 legislative symposium presentation ic 2msnelling
 
Annual Economic Outlook
Annual Economic OutlookAnnual Economic Outlook
Annual Economic OutlookShay Moser
 
How can communities shape economic development and create quality jobs
How can communities shape economic development and create quality jobsHow can communities shape economic development and create quality jobs
How can communities shape economic development and create quality jobsUrban Habitat
 
Seattle Tacoma Demographic and Economic Snapshot
Seattle Tacoma Demographic and Economic SnapshotSeattle Tacoma Demographic and Economic Snapshot
Seattle Tacoma Demographic and Economic Snapshotjeffpinkerton
 
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Legislative Symposium and Reception; Janua...
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Legislative Symposium and Reception; Janua...Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Legislative Symposium and Reception; Janua...
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Legislative Symposium and Reception; Janua...Greater Nashua Chamber
 
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon, January 15, 2014
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon, January 15, 2014Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon, January 15, 2014
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon, January 15, 2014Greater Nashua Chamber
 
Austin, TX: State of the Economy
Austin, TX: State of the EconomyAustin, TX: State of the Economy
Austin, TX: State of the EconomyCivic Analytics LLC
 
Regions Charting New Directions: Metropolitan Business Planning
Regions Charting New Directions: Metropolitan Business PlanningRegions Charting New Directions: Metropolitan Business Planning
Regions Charting New Directions: Metropolitan Business PlanningRWVentures
 
Kansas City Metro Area Economic-Demographic Overview
Kansas City Metro Area Economic-Demographic OverviewKansas City Metro Area Economic-Demographic Overview
Kansas City Metro Area Economic-Demographic Overviewjeffpinkerton
 
Engaging Communities For Economic Linked In
Engaging Communities For Economic Linked InEngaging Communities For Economic Linked In
Engaging Communities For Economic Linked InMBEDC, LLC
 
Economic Justice in Maryland and Howard County
Economic Justice in Maryland and Howard CountyEconomic Justice in Maryland and Howard County
Economic Justice in Maryland and Howard CountyKali Schumitz
 
Townsend 2015 Fall NL
Townsend 2015 Fall NLTownsend 2015 Fall NL
Townsend 2015 Fall NLDan Opsommer
 
The 2nd Biennial Engaging Immigrant Entrepreneurs & Small Business Owners Forum
The 2nd Biennial Engaging Immigrant Entrepreneurs & Small Business Owners ForumThe 2nd Biennial Engaging Immigrant Entrepreneurs & Small Business Owners Forum
The 2nd Biennial Engaging Immigrant Entrepreneurs & Small Business Owners ForumAllentza Michel
 
Tech committee presentation, 11/3/10
Tech committee presentation, 11/3/10Tech committee presentation, 11/3/10
Tech committee presentation, 11/3/10Alx Block
 
Keynote SF: The Rise of The Super Recruiter - Finnigan_ 5.8.15
Keynote SF: The Rise of The Super Recruiter - Finnigan_ 5.8.15Keynote SF: The Rise of The Super Recruiter - Finnigan_ 5.8.15
Keynote SF: The Rise of The Super Recruiter - Finnigan_ 5.8.15Jobvite
 
RS Working on the Workforce Sept 2019 To Post
RS Working on the Workforce Sept 2019 To PostRS Working on the Workforce Sept 2019 To Post
RS Working on the Workforce Sept 2019 To PostARCResearch
 

Similar to 2016 Economic Outlook Presentation (20)

2015.01.16 legislative symposium presentation ic 2
2015.01.16 legislative symposium presentation ic 22015.01.16 legislative symposium presentation ic 2
2015.01.16 legislative symposium presentation ic 2
 
Annual Economic Outlook
Annual Economic OutlookAnnual Economic Outlook
Annual Economic Outlook
 
How can communities shape economic development and create quality jobs
How can communities shape economic development and create quality jobsHow can communities shape economic development and create quality jobs
How can communities shape economic development and create quality jobs
 
Seattle Tacoma Demographic and Economic Snapshot
Seattle Tacoma Demographic and Economic SnapshotSeattle Tacoma Demographic and Economic Snapshot
Seattle Tacoma Demographic and Economic Snapshot
 
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Legislative Symposium and Reception; Janua...
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Legislative Symposium and Reception; Janua...Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Legislative Symposium and Reception; Janua...
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Legislative Symposium and Reception; Janua...
 
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon, January 15, 2014
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon, January 15, 2014Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon, January 15, 2014
Greater Nashua Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon, January 15, 2014
 
Dr. James V. Koch's Economic Outlook for Eastern North Carolina
Dr. James V. Koch's Economic Outlook for Eastern North CarolinaDr. James V. Koch's Economic Outlook for Eastern North Carolina
Dr. James V. Koch's Economic Outlook for Eastern North Carolina
 
Austin, TX: State of the Economy
Austin, TX: State of the EconomyAustin, TX: State of the Economy
Austin, TX: State of the Economy
 
Regions Charting New Directions: Metropolitan Business Planning
Regions Charting New Directions: Metropolitan Business PlanningRegions Charting New Directions: Metropolitan Business Planning
Regions Charting New Directions: Metropolitan Business Planning
 
Kansas City Metro Area Economic-Demographic Overview
Kansas City Metro Area Economic-Demographic OverviewKansas City Metro Area Economic-Demographic Overview
Kansas City Metro Area Economic-Demographic Overview
 
Engaging Communities For Economic Linked In
Engaging Communities For Economic Linked InEngaging Communities For Economic Linked In
Engaging Communities For Economic Linked In
 
Economic Justice in Maryland and Howard County
Economic Justice in Maryland and Howard CountyEconomic Justice in Maryland and Howard County
Economic Justice in Maryland and Howard County
 
2015 McHenry County Labor Report
2015 McHenry County Labor Report2015 McHenry County Labor Report
2015 McHenry County Labor Report
 
The Importance of Small and Micro Businesses in Boston
The Importance of Small and Micro Businesses in BostonThe Importance of Small and Micro Businesses in Boston
The Importance of Small and Micro Businesses in Boston
 
Townsend 2015 Fall NL
Townsend 2015 Fall NLTownsend 2015 Fall NL
Townsend 2015 Fall NL
 
The 2nd Biennial Engaging Immigrant Entrepreneurs & Small Business Owners Forum
The 2nd Biennial Engaging Immigrant Entrepreneurs & Small Business Owners ForumThe 2nd Biennial Engaging Immigrant Entrepreneurs & Small Business Owners Forum
The 2nd Biennial Engaging Immigrant Entrepreneurs & Small Business Owners Forum
 
Elizabeth Garner - Colorado State Demographer
Elizabeth Garner - Colorado State DemographerElizabeth Garner - Colorado State Demographer
Elizabeth Garner - Colorado State Demographer
 
Tech committee presentation, 11/3/10
Tech committee presentation, 11/3/10Tech committee presentation, 11/3/10
Tech committee presentation, 11/3/10
 
Keynote SF: The Rise of The Super Recruiter - Finnigan_ 5.8.15
Keynote SF: The Rise of The Super Recruiter - Finnigan_ 5.8.15Keynote SF: The Rise of The Super Recruiter - Finnigan_ 5.8.15
Keynote SF: The Rise of The Super Recruiter - Finnigan_ 5.8.15
 
RS Working on the Workforce Sept 2019 To Post
RS Working on the Workforce Sept 2019 To PostRS Working on the Workforce Sept 2019 To Post
RS Working on the Workforce Sept 2019 To Post
 

More from Maxwell Snelling

2016 May Eastern Bank Business Over Breakfast
2016 May Eastern Bank Business Over Breakfast 2016 May Eastern Bank Business Over Breakfast
2016 May Eastern Bank Business Over Breakfast Maxwell Snelling
 
2016 Economic Outlook Presentation
2016 Economic Outlook Presentation 2016 Economic Outlook Presentation
2016 Economic Outlook Presentation Maxwell Snelling
 
2014.12.18 breakfast presentation 2
2014.12.18 breakfast presentation 22014.12.18 breakfast presentation 2
2014.12.18 breakfast presentation 2Maxwell Snelling
 
2014.12.18 breakfast presentation
2014.12.18 breakfast presentation2014.12.18 breakfast presentation
2014.12.18 breakfast presentationMaxwell Snelling
 
2014.12.18 breakfast presentation
2014.12.18 breakfast presentation2014.12.18 breakfast presentation
2014.12.18 breakfast presentationMaxwell Snelling
 
How to register for an event 2
How to register for an event 2How to register for an event 2
How to register for an event 2Maxwell Snelling
 
How to register for an event
How to register for an eventHow to register for an event
How to register for an eventMaxwell Snelling
 
How to Register for an Event
How to Register for an EventHow to Register for an Event
How to Register for an EventMaxwell Snelling
 
How to Register for an Event
How to Register for an EventHow to Register for an Event
How to Register for an EventMaxwell Snelling
 
How to Register for an Event
How to Register for an EventHow to Register for an Event
How to Register for an EventMaxwell Snelling
 

More from Maxwell Snelling (10)

2016 May Eastern Bank Business Over Breakfast
2016 May Eastern Bank Business Over Breakfast 2016 May Eastern Bank Business Over Breakfast
2016 May Eastern Bank Business Over Breakfast
 
2016 Economic Outlook Presentation
2016 Economic Outlook Presentation 2016 Economic Outlook Presentation
2016 Economic Outlook Presentation
 
2014.12.18 breakfast presentation 2
2014.12.18 breakfast presentation 22014.12.18 breakfast presentation 2
2014.12.18 breakfast presentation 2
 
2014.12.18 breakfast presentation
2014.12.18 breakfast presentation2014.12.18 breakfast presentation
2014.12.18 breakfast presentation
 
2014.12.18 breakfast presentation
2014.12.18 breakfast presentation2014.12.18 breakfast presentation
2014.12.18 breakfast presentation
 
How to register for an event 2
How to register for an event 2How to register for an event 2
How to register for an event 2
 
How to register for an event
How to register for an eventHow to register for an event
How to register for an event
 
How to Register for an Event
How to Register for an EventHow to Register for an Event
How to Register for an Event
 
How to Register for an Event
How to Register for an EventHow to Register for an Event
How to Register for an Event
 
How to Register for an Event
How to Register for an EventHow to Register for an Event
How to Register for an Event
 

Recently uploaded

Live-Streaming in the Music Industry Webinar
Live-Streaming in the Music Industry WebinarLive-Streaming in the Music Industry Webinar
Live-Streaming in the Music Industry WebinarNathanielSchmuck
 
NewBase 25 March 2024 Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
NewBase  25 March  2024  Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...NewBase  25 March  2024  Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
NewBase 25 March 2024 Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...Khaled Al Awadi
 
MC Heights construction company in Jhang
MC Heights construction company in JhangMC Heights construction company in Jhang
MC Heights construction company in Jhangmcgroupjeya
 
Slicing Work on Business Agility Meetup Berlin
Slicing Work on Business Agility Meetup BerlinSlicing Work on Business Agility Meetup Berlin
Slicing Work on Business Agility Meetup BerlinAnton Skornyakov
 
BCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John Meulemans
BCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John MeulemansBCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John Meulemans
BCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John MeulemansBBPMedia1
 
NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023
NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023
NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023Steve Rader
 
Plano de marketing- inglês em formato ppt
Plano de marketing- inglês  em formato pptPlano de marketing- inglês  em formato ppt
Plano de marketing- inglês em formato pptElizangelaSoaresdaCo
 
Michael Vidyakin: Introduction to PMO (UA)
Michael Vidyakin: Introduction to PMO (UA)Michael Vidyakin: Introduction to PMO (UA)
Michael Vidyakin: Introduction to PMO (UA)Lviv Startup Club
 
IIBA® Melbourne - Navigating Business Analysis - Excellence for Career Growth...
IIBA® Melbourne - Navigating Business Analysis - Excellence for Career Growth...IIBA® Melbourne - Navigating Business Analysis - Excellence for Career Growth...
IIBA® Melbourne - Navigating Business Analysis - Excellence for Career Growth...AustraliaChapterIIBA
 
The End of Business as Usual: Rewire the Way You Work to Succeed in the Consu...
The End of Business as Usual: Rewire the Way You Work to Succeed in the Consu...The End of Business as Usual: Rewire the Way You Work to Succeed in the Consu...
The End of Business as Usual: Rewire the Way You Work to Succeed in the Consu...Brian Solis
 
Boat Trailers Market PPT: Growth, Outlook, Demand, Keyplayer Analysis and Opp...
Boat Trailers Market PPT: Growth, Outlook, Demand, Keyplayer Analysis and Opp...Boat Trailers Market PPT: Growth, Outlook, Demand, Keyplayer Analysis and Opp...
Boat Trailers Market PPT: Growth, Outlook, Demand, Keyplayer Analysis and Opp...IMARC Group
 
Upgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking Applications
Upgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking ApplicationsUpgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking Applications
Upgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking ApplicationsIntellect Design Arena Ltd
 
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access
 
Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access
 
Fabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and Festivals
Fabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and FestivalsFabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and Festivals
Fabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and FestivalsWristbands Ireland
 
AMAZON SELLER VIRTUAL ASSISTANT PRODUCT RESEARCH .pdf
AMAZON SELLER VIRTUAL ASSISTANT PRODUCT RESEARCH .pdfAMAZON SELLER VIRTUAL ASSISTANT PRODUCT RESEARCH .pdf
AMAZON SELLER VIRTUAL ASSISTANT PRODUCT RESEARCH .pdfJohnCarloValencia4
 
Tata Kelola Bisnis perushaan yang bergerak
Tata Kelola Bisnis perushaan yang bergerakTata Kelola Bisnis perushaan yang bergerak
Tata Kelola Bisnis perushaan yang bergerakEditores1
 
Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access
 
Building Your Personal Brand on LinkedIn - Expert Planet- 2024
 Building Your Personal Brand on LinkedIn - Expert Planet-  2024 Building Your Personal Brand on LinkedIn - Expert Planet-  2024
Building Your Personal Brand on LinkedIn - Expert Planet- 2024Stephan Koning
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Live-Streaming in the Music Industry Webinar
Live-Streaming in the Music Industry WebinarLive-Streaming in the Music Industry Webinar
Live-Streaming in the Music Industry Webinar
 
NewBase 25 March 2024 Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
NewBase  25 March  2024  Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...NewBase  25 March  2024  Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
NewBase 25 March 2024 Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
 
MC Heights construction company in Jhang
MC Heights construction company in JhangMC Heights construction company in Jhang
MC Heights construction company in Jhang
 
Slicing Work on Business Agility Meetup Berlin
Slicing Work on Business Agility Meetup BerlinSlicing Work on Business Agility Meetup Berlin
Slicing Work on Business Agility Meetup Berlin
 
BCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John Meulemans
BCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John MeulemansBCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John Meulemans
BCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John Meulemans
 
NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023
NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023
NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023
 
Plano de marketing- inglês em formato ppt
Plano de marketing- inglês  em formato pptPlano de marketing- inglês  em formato ppt
Plano de marketing- inglês em formato ppt
 
Michael Vidyakin: Introduction to PMO (UA)
Michael Vidyakin: Introduction to PMO (UA)Michael Vidyakin: Introduction to PMO (UA)
Michael Vidyakin: Introduction to PMO (UA)
 
IIBA® Melbourne - Navigating Business Analysis - Excellence for Career Growth...
IIBA® Melbourne - Navigating Business Analysis - Excellence for Career Growth...IIBA® Melbourne - Navigating Business Analysis - Excellence for Career Growth...
IIBA® Melbourne - Navigating Business Analysis - Excellence for Career Growth...
 
The End of Business as Usual: Rewire the Way You Work to Succeed in the Consu...
The End of Business as Usual: Rewire the Way You Work to Succeed in the Consu...The End of Business as Usual: Rewire the Way You Work to Succeed in the Consu...
The End of Business as Usual: Rewire the Way You Work to Succeed in the Consu...
 
WAM Corporate Presentation Mar 25 2024.pdf
WAM Corporate Presentation Mar 25 2024.pdfWAM Corporate Presentation Mar 25 2024.pdf
WAM Corporate Presentation Mar 25 2024.pdf
 
Boat Trailers Market PPT: Growth, Outlook, Demand, Keyplayer Analysis and Opp...
Boat Trailers Market PPT: Growth, Outlook, Demand, Keyplayer Analysis and Opp...Boat Trailers Market PPT: Growth, Outlook, Demand, Keyplayer Analysis and Opp...
Boat Trailers Market PPT: Growth, Outlook, Demand, Keyplayer Analysis and Opp...
 
Upgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking Applications
Upgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking ApplicationsUpgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking Applications
Upgrade Your Banking Experience with Advanced Core Banking Applications
 
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
 
Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024
 
Fabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and Festivals
Fabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and FestivalsFabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and Festivals
Fabric RFID Wristbands in Ireland for Events and Festivals
 
AMAZON SELLER VIRTUAL ASSISTANT PRODUCT RESEARCH .pdf
AMAZON SELLER VIRTUAL ASSISTANT PRODUCT RESEARCH .pdfAMAZON SELLER VIRTUAL ASSISTANT PRODUCT RESEARCH .pdf
AMAZON SELLER VIRTUAL ASSISTANT PRODUCT RESEARCH .pdf
 
Tata Kelola Bisnis perushaan yang bergerak
Tata Kelola Bisnis perushaan yang bergerakTata Kelola Bisnis perushaan yang bergerak
Tata Kelola Bisnis perushaan yang bergerak
 
Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024
 
Building Your Personal Brand on LinkedIn - Expert Planet- 2024
 Building Your Personal Brand on LinkedIn - Expert Planet-  2024 Building Your Personal Brand on LinkedIn - Expert Planet-  2024
Building Your Personal Brand on LinkedIn - Expert Planet- 2024
 

2016 Economic Outlook Presentation

  • 1. Welcome to the Economic Outlook Luncheon
  • 2. Mrs. Lori Piper SVP/Senior Commercial Lending Officer, Enterprise Bank
  • 3. Today’s Panelists 3 Mr. Steve Norton Mr. Charlie Arlinghaus Mr. Jeff McDonald Executive Director, NH Center for Public Policy President of The Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy Chief Investment Officer, Enterprise Investment Advisors
  • 4. Mr. Steve Norton Executive Director, NH Center for Public Policy Economics Short and Long Term
  • 5. NH’s Economy $- $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $3,000,000 $4,000,000 $5,000,000 $6,000,000 $7,000,000 $8,000,000 New Hampshire Total Compensation Paid by Selected Industries (Thousands of Dollars) Manufacturing + High Tech Healthcare Retail Trade Finance Construction Education Real Estate Local and State Government Mfg Only
  • 7. NH – Less of a decline, but a slower recovery 92.0 94.0 96.0 98.0 100.0 102.0 104.0 106.0 108.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Dec2007=100 Index of Total NonFarm Employment US NH MA New Hampshire United States Massachusetts
  • 8. Economic Forecast? NEEP Forecast Summary Comparisons Average Annual Rates of Growth October 2015 Forecast Actual 2010-2014 Forecast 2014-2018 Gross State Product GSP-New Hampshire 3.3 2.5 GSP-New England 1.4 2.6 GDP-United States 1.9 2.8 Total Non-Farm Jobs Jobs-New Hampshire 0.9 1.4 Jobs-New England 1.2 1.4 Jobs-United States 1.6 2.1 Moderate Growth Anticipated
  • 9. Economic Consequence of the Market Turmoil • Negative consequences  Lower stock prices impacts consumer spending through wealth effect and businesses’ cost of capital.  Stronger value of the $ weakens the trade balance.  Emerging market economies struggle to adjust to lower commodity prices. • Positive consequences  Lower oil prices is a net positive as stronger consumer spending more than offsets the hit to the energy industry.  Lower mortgage rates supports housing and refinancing activity.  Reduces over-valuation in asset markets and chances that a bubble will form. Allows Fed to raise rates more slowly. Source: Moody’s Analytics, September 1, 2015
  • 10. Overall Risk Index Wealth Effect 40%, trade 40%, energy 20% Sources: BLS, Moody’s Analytics
  • 11. Long Term Labor Force Challenges
  • 12. Size of Labor Force Working-Age Population (Age 20-64) • Assuming no migration the working- age population in New Hampshire will decline nearly 10% in the state. • The northern rural counties will see larger declines. • Carroll County sees the biggest declines. % Change 2010-2030 US 1.0% NH -9.7% Strafford -2.4% Hillsborough -5.5% Cheshire -8.9% Merrimack -10.2% Grafton -11.2% Rockingham -12.3% Sullivan -14.7% Belknap -16.3% Coos -20.0% Carroll -24.4% Source: Daniel Lee, Plymouth State University
  • 13. 13
  • 14. New Hampshire’s Population Numbers Depend on Immigrants New Hampshire County Net Migration from 2010 to 2014 Census Estimates Net 2014 County Foreign Born Domestic Migration Residents Belknap County, New Hampshire 293 292 585 60,305 Carroll County, New Hampshire 81 82 163 47,399 Cheshire County, New Hampshire 157 -1,193 -1,036 76,115 Coos County, New Hampshire 77 -799 -722 31,653 Grafton County, New Hampshire 1,105 -475 630 89,658 Hillsborough County, New Hampshire 4,075 -5,413 -1,338 405,184 Merrimack County, New Hampshire 871 -530 341 147,171 Rockingham County, New Hampshire 844 2,937 3,781 300,621 Strafford County, New Hampshire 531 505 1,036 125,604 Sullivan County, New Hampshire 103 -530 -427 43,103 8,137 -5,124 3,013 1,326,813
  • 15. 15.6% 13.9% 12.9% 5.7% 4.3% 3.4% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Massachusetts Connecticut Rhode Island New Hampshire Vermont Maine Foreign Born Population in New England States (2013) Percent of Total Population New Hampshire Share of Foreign Born Less than US, Regional
  • 16. 5.2% 16.1% 9.7% 22.9% 16.3% 14.7% 8.8% 4.4% 1.9% 0.5% 6.0% 9.4% 34.6% 17.0% 12.8% 10.0% 6.5% 3.3% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% Under 5 years 5 to 17 years 18 to 24 years 25 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over New Hampshire Native and Foreign Born Population by Age, 2013 Native Foreign born New Hampshire Foreign Born Concentrated in Prime Working Age
  • 17. Immigrants and Native Education Patterns 6.40% 29.80% 29.60% 22.10% 12.20% 19.20% 23.00% 19.20% 19.70% 18.90% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Less than high school graduate High school graduate (includes equivalency) Some college or associate's degree Bachelor's degree Graduate or professional degree New Hampshire Native and Foreign Born Population Over 25 by Educational Attainment, 2013 Native Foreign born
  • 18. 2013 Foreign Born with Bachelors Degree or Better 2013 ACS, , B06009 Foreign Born Foreign Born Rank State Percentage BA or Better Population 25 and Over 4 Vermont 41.5% 8,902 21,459 9 New Hampshire 38.6% 24,395 63,196 13 Massachusetts 35.6% 319,823 898,587 14 Maine 35.0% 12,646 36,171 16 Connecticut 33.6% 145,832 434,636 43 Rhode Island 22.0% 25,460 115,548 New England 34.2% 537,058 1,569,597 18 New Hampshire Foreign Born Highly Educated
  • 19. Immigration Expands the Economy • Immigrants increase economic efficiency by reducing labor shortages in low- and high-skilled markets because their educational backgrounds fill holes in the native-born labor market. • Immigrants’ educational backgrounds typically complement, rather than displace, the skills of the native- born labor market. THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMMIGRATION, Diana Furchtgott-Roth, Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, February 2013
  • 20. New Hampshire foreign born Highly-Educated • Four out of ten of New Hampshire’s foreign-born residents have a bachelor’s degree or better, ranking New Hampshire among the top ten states in the country in the education level of foreign-born residents. • Despite accounting for less than 6 percent of the state population, the foreign born account for nearly one in ten New Hampshire residents with a graduate or professional degree.
  • 21. • In 2013 New Hampshire foreign-born workers earned about $2 billion in wages working in New Hampshire industries, or about 6.4 percent of the $29 billion in wages earned in the state. • Over one third of those earnings were in management, business, financial, computer and mathematical occupations. New Hampshire Foreign Born Contribute to the Economy
  • 22. • An expansion of the high-skilled visa program would create an estimated 2,000 new jobs in New Hampshire by 2020. • By 2045, this expansion would add around $717 million to Gross State Product and increase personal income by more than $706 million. Source: Frederick R. Treyz, Corey Stottlemyer, and Rod Motamedi, “Key Components of Immigration Reform: An Analysis of the Economic Effects of Creating a Pathway to Legal Status, Expanding High-Skilled Visas, and Reforming Lesser-Skilled Visas” (Amherst, MA: Regional Economic Models, Inc., 2013). But they could contribute more…
  • 23. National Research on Foreign Born Business Owners • Despite accounting for 13% of the population, immigrants start one quarter of the new businesses in the US. • Immigrant founders started 52% of all new Silicon Valley companies between 1995 and 2005. • 21% of INC. 500 CEOs are foreign born. • Source: INC. Magazine, “The Most Entrepreneurial Group in America Wasn’t Born in America”.
  • 24. New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies Want to learn more? • Online: nhpolicy.org • Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy • Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy • Our blog: policyblognh.org • (603) 226-2500 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” Board of Directors James Putnam, Chair David Alukonis John Herney Eric Herr Dianne Mercier Catherine A. Provencher Todd I. Selig Michael Whitney Daniel Wolf Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus Directors Emeritus William H. Dunlap Sheila T. Francoeur Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh
  • 25. Mr. Charlie M. Arlinghaus President of The Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy
  • 26. Everything’s Better in Texas Job Growth Since the Recession: -0.11% 11.75% 0.44% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 New Hampshire Texas US, less TX
  • 27. Wrong Side of the Border 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Mass. adding jobs almost twice as fast as NH MA NH
  • 28. Location Transport to Market Costs Supplier Labor Costs State and Local Taxes Total Measured Costs Nashville, TN $426 $159 $118 $703 Lexington, KY 423 186 106 715 St. Louis, MO 419 172 134 725 Bloomington, IL 417 202 162 781 Kalamazoo, MI 430 244 116 790 Terre Haute, IN 413 209 168 790 Marysville, OH 427 219 169 815 “Saturn and State Economic Development”, Bartik et al
  • 29. Leapfrogging Maryland TAX COMPETITION Worst 10 8.50% New Hampshire #39 8.20% Massachusetts 8.00% Median State [TN] 6.50% Florida 5.50% Top 11 5.00% Texas
  • 30. Who Pays Business Taxes? Employees Firms Employees Pct of Total 20 or more 4,889 441,233 80.3% 5 or more 13,501 59,236 94.5% Employers 30,522 548,985 100% Nonemployers 102,310 Total 132,310 2014 BPT: 15,685 taxpayers 10 year range: 11,375 - 15,685
  • 31. Budget Considerations • Business Taxes i. Rate reduction ii. Up 15.5% • HHS $27m behind and falling • Taxes up $37m over budget • New money means new ideas
  • 32. Shockingly High 2015 2014 New England 16.62 15.43 New Hampshire 16.09 15.16 Vermont 14.34 14.63 Maine 12.96 12.60 USA 10.49 10.50 Tennessee 9.36 9.49 Texas #11 8.72 8.97
  • 33. The NH Penalty: 46% $500 $700 $900 $1,100 $1,300 $1,500 $1,700 2014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002 NH Pays $527m More Than if Ave NH AVE
  • 34. Charlie Arlinghaus Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy arlinghaus@jbartlett.org
  • 35. Mr. Jeff McDonald Chief Investment Officer, SVP for Enterprise Investment Advisors Market Update: China, Oil & The Fed
  • 37. China is second largest economy in the world, with an expanding consumer class and is also a large consumer of energy and raw materials. China © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 38. © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce. China’s economic decline will impact the overall global economy but that impact will vary from one country to another. China
  • 39. Today, Chinese economic growth has slowed from a historical 10% target to a revised 6.5% and may be as low as 4%. China © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 40. In response to the economic slowdown, the Chinese government has allowed its currency to depreciate in order to make their exported goods more attractive to consumers outside of China. Manufacturing growth has slowed to the lowest level since 2009. China © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 41. However, the depreciation of the Chinese Yuan sent a message to investors that growth in China is slowing more than the government has reported. China © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 42. The lack of confidence in the Chinese government to orchestrate a solid recovery has diminished greatly (even after adding $30 billion to the market last month) causing the Shanghai Chinese market to fall 15% year-to-date. Now down 20%, it has entered a bear market for the 2nd time in 7 months. China © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 43. Piling in: There are many new investors in China’s equity market. The Chinese stock market has boomed as millions of citizens have taken up trading. Volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets through May in 2015 has nearly equaled the trade volume in all of 2014. China © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 44. But these new entrants are treating the equity market like a casino… China © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 45. …and borrowing large sums of money to buy stock to make their fortunes. China © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 46. China Syndrome: The Contagion Effect Emerging market countries have been negatively impacted as investors fear a contagion effect in those countries closely aligned with China, such as Singapore, which could see its growth decrease by 1.4% for every 1% decrease in China’s economy. © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 47. 95 100 105 110 115 Thaibaht/USD 120 125 130 Jan'15 Source:Bloomberg Jul'15 Jan'16 IndexJan14,2015=100(inverted) SpotExchangeRates Malaysian ringgit/USD South Korean won/USD Taiwan dollar/USD Since China is the largest Asian exporter, a cheaper Chinese currency initiates a selloff in every other Asian export country’s currency. China Syndrome: The Contagion Effect © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 48. -0.8% -1.9% -2.4% -2.5% -3.3% -4.0% -5.2% -6.1% -7.4% -8.0% -7.0% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% South Africanrand Russian rouble Mexican peso Turkishlira South Koreanwon Taiwanese dollar Malaysian ringgit Singapore dollar Chineseyuan YTD performance against USD(1/15/16) Asia is not alone: The Euro, Yen, Rand, Ruble and Peso are also weaker. Source: NorthernTrust China Syndrome: The Contagion Effect © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 49. Some developed international countries depend greatly on China for a large percentage of their overall exports. China Syndrome: The Contagion Effect © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 50. A slowdown in China will have a direct impact on the Eurozone region. China Syndrome: The Contagion Effect © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 51. But the European Central Bank is committed to increasing growth and inflation in the Eurozone which is why it will continue to add liquidity to the market and keep interest low in order to make credit cheap and boost asset prices (sounds like what the Fed did in the US in the last 7 years). China Syndrome: The Contagion Effect © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 53. Commodity Rout: Oil Oil has decreased dramatically due to the decline in the global economy driven by China’s economic slowdown. Oil declines have been driven by over supply issues caused by increased production from new players such as US shale producers. Oil continued to slide and breached the $30 barrel level, not seen since 2004. Currently, oil is at $29 a barrel, which is a 12-year low. This year alone oil has lost 20% and is off 52% from its 2015 peak. Why? 2 ReasonsDEMAND SUPPLY © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 54. In addition, Venezuela and Nigeria are adding to supply and now Iran is coming back online after the ban on its oil exports were lifted. Also, OPEC (The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), lead by the Saudis, decided not cut production at its last meeting in order to eliminate competition and protect its market share. As a result, there is a dramatic imbalance between supply and demand. Commodity Rout: Oil © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 55. Concerns with the decline in energy prices and its impact on highly levered energy companies has fanned the bankruptcy fires and the losses in banks’ loan portfolios (especially regional banks in energy producing areas), which could pressure bank earnings. Source: Northern Trust, Bloomberg, Barclays. Monthly data through 12/31/2015. Averages of data over period charted. Commodity Rout: Oil © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 56. Positives and negatives for lower oil prices: POSTIVES + US consumers benefit directly because oil is priced in dollars and our dollar has strengthened which means the lower gas prices has added approximately $700 billion in consumer’s pockets. + Other benefits from lower gas prices have been reported recently in stronger restaurant and beverage sales and home improvement revenue i.e. Home Depot, Lowe’s, etc. NEGATIVES − Since oil is priced in dollars, the effect of a stronger dollar has made oil/gas more expensive in those countries that have been reducing the value of their currency in order to remain export competitive. − In this case, energy and gas prices acted like a tax increase at a time when consumers need a tax cut. Commodity Rout: Oil © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 58. Consumer balance sheet is in better shape today: Consumer debt loads as percentage of income are 30% lower today than they were in 2007. Domestic Front © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 59. Consumer confidence and disposable income is still high: Source: NorthernTrust Domestic Front © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 60. Business confidence is still strong: Source: NorthernTrust Domestic Front © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 61. Market Update: The Fed Domestic Front © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 62. The Fed raised the Fed Funds rate for the first time in 10 years, causing some concern because it makes the dollar stronger which makes our exports more expensive versus our trading partners. Positives of higher rates:  Helps individuals dependent on fixed-income and adjusts risk-taking.  Higher short-term rates help bank net interest margins = ability to expand credit.  Higher interest rates = US dollar denominated assets more attractive = pushing longer-term interest rates lower. The Domestic Front: The Fed © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 63. US bank balance sheets are stronger than ever. They have double the reserve ratios to protect against crisis situations like 2008. Opportunity??? Bank earnings have been good…Citigroup posted best annual profit in a decade, yet, financial shares index is down 13% year-to-date. The Domestic Front © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 64. The slowdown in the global economy is impacting the US economy but not as much as other countries. Why? US only exports about 15% of the goods produced but the stronger dollar has impacted the manufacturing sector. . The Domestic Front © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 65. The US is mostly a service economy, not impacted by the strength of the dollar. Source: NorthernTrust The Domestic Front © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 66. It’s NOT all a bed of roses…
  • 67. US companies still face some headwinds in earnings growth. Fourth quarter earnings declined from 1% to (3.7%) which explains why we saw flattish equity returns last year. Earning growth estimates for 2016 have been ratcheted down from 10.3% to 7.6% due to the global slowdown. . Earnings © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 68. Currently, fear is driving stock prices lower…..CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange) volatility index often referred to as the fear gauge is above the its 10 year average. As a result, fear has pushed all major US stock indexes into correction territory, which is reflecting declines of more than 10% from recent peaks. Fear © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 69. Positives for continued growth in US: Positives © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 70. UnemploymentRate Employment has remained strong…recent NFP was over $292k, which was above the average estimate. Positives for Growth © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 71. Wage growth is still weaker than desired but was still positive at +2.5% year-over- year. Already mentioned “cheap” oil/gas = savings for consumption. Remember consumer is 70% of GDP in U.S. Source: NorthernTrust Positives for Growth © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 72. Strong corporate balance sheets and huge cash levels to the tune of estimated $1.7 trillion. Plenty of firepower to buy equities. Source:Bloomberg Over $700 Billion in Personal Savings Over $2.7 Trillion in Money Markets Positives for Growth © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 73. Source: Northern Trust, Bloomberg. Weekly data through 1/1/2016 (*current). Longer-term interest rates will probably remain range bound between 2% - 2.5%. Probably will stay at the lower end of the range due to the following:  Expectations of inflation remaining low for the foreseeable future.  Safe haven status of US treasury bonds during market turmoil/volatility.  Higher yields compared to global trading partners make US bonds more attractive and the demand pushes prices higher and bond yields lower. 10-YEAR SOVEREIGNS CURRENT* YIELD 12/31/14 YIELD YTD CHANGE (BPS) CURRENTSPREAD TO U.S.(BPS) 1YRFORWARD YIELD 5YRFORWARD YIELD United States 2.27 2.17 10 - 2.50 2.88 United Kingdom 1.96 1.76 20 -31 2.20 2.76 Japan 0.27 0.33 -6 -200 0.37 0.94 Canada 1.39 1.79 -39 -88 1.57 2.35 Germany 0.63 0.54 9 -164 0.78 1.43 France 0.99 0.83 16 -128 1.19 2.03 Italy 1.60 1.89 -29 -67 1.85 2.74 Spain 1.77 1.61 16 -50 2.07 3.20 Switzerland -0.06 0.32 -38 -233 0.05 0.58 Positives for Growth © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 74. Although we have seen a huge improvement in real estate prices we have not benefited directly from an increase in new construction. Every 250,000 homes built translates to approximately 1 million jobs created; we think that housing starts could end up at 2 million annually. Positives for Growth Source: NorthernTrust © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 75. As the employment picture has continued to improve, we will see more demand (albeit slow) for housing and lower mortgage rates will aide first time home buyers and those looking to move up. There is proof that young people are leaving the nest: Positives for Growth
  • 76. …and forming new households. Positives for Growth © 2016 Enterprise Investment Advisors. All Rights Reserved. Do not reproduce.
  • 77. • Lastly, although the Fed has increased the Fed Funds rate, it remains • accommodative in its monetary policy. • It remains fully aware of the global macroeconomic • picture and its impact on the US economy. Positives for Growth
  • 78. Thank you! Jeffrey McDonald Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey.McDonald@ebtc.com
  • 79. Thank you to our Sponsor!
  • 80. Thank you for attending our Economic Outlook Luncheon!
  • 81. GNCC Upcoming Events TD Bank AM Networking – January 28th from 8:00 AM - 9:30 AM at Life Coping Inc. February Business After Hours – Wednesday, February 10th from 5:30 PM – 7:30 PM at Homewood Suites Gateway Hill Hosted by Homewood Suites, High Hopes Foundation, Alphagraphics, and the Web Action Group State of the City – Wednesday, February 10th from 7:30 AM – 9:30 AM at the Event Center at Courtyard by Marriott Nashua Small Business Expo – Wednesday, March 2nd from 5:00 PM - 7:30 PM 13th Annual Eminence Awards – Friday, March 25th from 12:00 Noon – 2 PM at Sky Meadow Country Club