Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment for Socio-Economics of LMB
1. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC SYSTEMS IN
THE LOWER MEKONG BASIN
John Sawdon and Paul Wyrwoll, International Centre for Environmental Management
Hanoi, 1st November 2012
2. Contents
• Part 1: Key trends, drives and overall approach
– Overview of socio-economic trends and drivers in the LMB:
food and commodity price, demographic change, agricultural
commercialization, continuing importance of agricultural
livelihoods
– Rural poverty livelihoods and productive sectors
– Analytical approach understanding livelihoods in the basin
• Part 2: Assessing climate vulnerability in Mondulkiri
– Linking livelihoods to productive sectors
– Key health and infrastructure impacts in Mondulkiri
– Linking productive sectors through livelihoods
– Concluding remarks
3. PART 1: KEY TRENDS, DRIVERS AND
OVERALL APPROACH
4. Key demographic trends
• The countries of the LMB are
under-going dramatic socio
206 million
economic change
177 million
• This is having dramatic
demographic consequences
– Rapidly falling fertility rates
– Rural-urban migration (falling
rural populations in the Mekong
Delta and NE Thailand)
– Rural-rural migration (Cambodia
and Lao PDR)
– Intra regional migration
5. Food and commodity price
Population growth, urbanization, higher living standards, productivity changes in big
agricultural exporters in Asia and globally are driving large increases in the demand for
agricultural commodities Source: FAO 2012, WDI 2012
6. Increasing importance of commercial agriculture
Industrialization, urbanization, commodity trade
Small
holdings
Commercial
Labour Increased
intensive
Land
consolidation
capital farms and
intensity plantations
Low
capital
intensity
Subsistence Intermediate Commercial
8. Land concessions
Cambodia
• 57 concessions granted by
2007 of 500,000 Ha in total
• Up to 85 concessions in 2010
of 957,000 Ha in total (could
be as high as 2 million Ha)
Lao PDR
• 330,000 ha granted ( around
25% of agricultural land)
Source: IIED 2012
Source: MRC 2010
9. Response to socio-economic change in rural areas
Population pressure
Open access Employment
natural Rural population in urban
resources areas
Reduction in Reduction in access to
employment land through:
opportunities in 1. Land conversion to
rural areas other uses
2. Land consolidation
3. Granting of land
concessions
12. Population in Proportion of Proportion of
LMB (million) LMB national
population population
(%) (%)
Cambodia 12.4 20 88
Lao PDR 6.2 10 >95
Thailand 23.3 36 34
Viet Nam 21.7 34 25
Total LMB 63.5 100 37
13. Poverty
• Rates of severe poverty
(<$1.25) have declined
significantly
• Significant proportions of the
population remain below the $2
threshold
• Still greater number remain
vulnerable to poverty:
- Cambodia – approx. 65% < $2.5
- Lao PDR – approx. 78% < $2.5
- Viet Nam - approx. 58% < $2.5
14. Continuing chronic food insecurity
Weight for age Height for age Cambodia
70 70 Lao PDR
Thailand
60 60 Viet Nam
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Malnutrition rate in under-fives in LMB countries
Source: WDI 2012
15. Food source by occupation in Lao PDR 2007
Highest incidence of food insecurity
Highest number of food insecure households Source: WFP 2007
22. Socio-economic overview of Mondulkiri
• Population: ~ 47,000 (2004); ~ 62,000 (2010)
• Poverty: Poorest province in Cambodia: 37% by national
standards
• Education: 10 lower secondary schools; 1 high school
• Ethnicity: Phnong (52%); Khmer (35%); Other (13%)
• Food security: Classified as chronically food insecure by
World Food Programme in 2009
• Livelihoods:
– Mix of subsistence and commercial activities
– Reliance on natural resources
– Multiple activities
23. Household livelihood activities in communities
adjacent to Mondulkiri Protected Forest
100
engaged in livelihood ac vi y
Percentage of households
80
60
40
20
0
Agriculture Fisheries NTFPs Livestock
Source: WWF (2007)
24. Agricultur NTFPs
e
Fisheries Livelihoods Livestock
Health Infrastructure
25. Vulnerability and impact assessment (CAM):
Health and Infrastructure
• Inadequate health limits the capacity of individuals to
engage in livelihood activities
• Infrastructure: Physical, stationary infrastructure such as
roads, bridges, housing, irrigation infrastructure, and grain
storage
• Infrastructure enables households and communities to
pursue and benefit from livelihood activities
26. Socio-economic CAM criteria
Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity
Location of people/assets Human health Assets (e.g. tenure, housing, livestock,
motorised transport)
Severity of threat Strength of key infrastructure Education and skills
Duration of threat Demographic composition Physical infrastructure (e.g. roads, health
centres, electricity)
Poverty Access to markets (e.g. credit markets,
proximity to market-place)
Food security
27. Sensitivity
• Poor health: High infant mortality
and malnutrition; high rate insect-
borne disease; high rate of water-
borne disease from poor hygiene
and water access
• Weak infrastructure: Traditional
housing; unsealed roads
• Demographic composition: High
proportion of ethnic minorities;
~50% of population < 17 years
• High poverty
• Highly food insecure
28. Adaptive capacity
• Assets: rural land tenure often
informal; livestock key assets (i.e.
cattle); ~1 motorbike per 10 people
• Education and skills: Low level (non-
traditional)
• Physical infrastructure: 1 sealed road;
poor access to electricity; 1 major
health centre: 66% births without
modern medical care
• Access to markets: Poor have no or
limited access to credit; communities
have access to district markets
31. Very High Vulnerability – Health (Uplands and Lowlands)
Threat: Flooding
Impact: Greater incidence of
disease
• Post-flood stagnant water pools
provide disease vector breeding
ground
• Contaminated water during flood
events
– 65% villages highly exposed
flooding
– 70% villages rely on rivers
and streams for drinking
32. Very High Vulnerability – Infrastructure (Lowlands)
Threat: Flooding and flash
flooding
Impact: Destruction and
degradation of infrastructure
• Many dwellings highly exposed
due to village proximity to rivers
and streams (e.g. Srepok)
• Destruction/inundation of roads
cuts off communities from
markets
• Poor current infrastructure
magnifies losses
33. Very High Vulnerability – Health (Uplands and Lowlands)
Threat: Higher maximum
temperature
Impact: Heat stress
• Days exceeding 35°C to rise from
5% to 25% on annual basis
• 35°C (sustained) threshold for
heat stress; 37-38°C potentially
lethal
• Outdoor livelihoods
• Lack of shelter to recover
34. Very High Vulnerability – Health (Lowlands)
Threat: Drought
Impact: Water scarcity
(Dry season)
• Higher evaporation and less
surface water
• Water-use for hygiene a lower
priority
• Diarrhoea is a key health issue
• Communities revert to less safe
water sources during times of
scarcity
35. Agricultur NTFPs
e
Fisheries Livelihoods Livestock
Health Infrastructure
36. Linkages between livelihood sectors and climate
change (Mondulkiri)
Agriculture: Insect damage reduces rice yield
NTFP
Rice Poverty use Poverty
Food Food
Production Insecurity NTFP Insecurity
availability
NTFPs: Fall in resin production
Sensitivity to
Resin Cash income climate change
production Poverty impacts in all
sectors
37. Linkages between livelihood sectors and climate
change (continued)
Livestock: Flash flooding causes livestock deaths
Livestock NTFP reliance
Poverty following extreme
assets events
38. Higher dry season
temperature
Eels and Trapeangs Buffalo
Fish
Livelihoods
Recession Vegetation
Rice Wildlife
40. Conclusion
- A huge economic and social transition is going on in the
basin, but rural livelihoods will continue to be directly reliant
on natural resources for many decades and will therefore be
highly exposed to climate change
- Mondulkiri is one of the poorest provinces in the basin and is
projected to be under extreme threat from climate change
- The province provides an illustration of how poverty and
climate change vulnerability combine in the basin as a whole
- The impacts on health and infrastructure of more serious
flood and drought events would have large welfare impacts
- BUT, an understanding of the full impacts requires an
analysis of how all productive sectors (e.g. Agriculture,
Fisheries, etc.) interact through livelihoods
The LMB countries are undergoing dramatic, structural and historical socio-economic change, economic growth and industrialization, population growth and movementAll LMB countries are going through a rapid demographic transition, that is to say they are seeing seeing falling fertility rates, population growth which is expected to decline steadily in the coming decades – we can see from UN median estimates that population in LMB is expected to peak in about 2045 at about 206 million – 30 million more than today. Decision to migrate a complex one (as Koos pointed out). Within this urban-rural migration means urban areas are growing rapidly throughout the region and in some locations populations are decliningTrends in increased rural-rural migration and migration within the region .
Rising global and regional food prices and increasing volatilityPopulationPoor harvests in big exporters (US, Australia, Russia, Eastern Europe and West central Asia)Land use for other commodities (Bio-fuels, etc.)Change in dietsShould be borne in mind, agricultural commodities are traded, so the impacts of global climatic events and global climate change in general may effect food security….in the basin – indeed may have a large influence on food security in the basin
Related to these increasing demands for food and agricultural commodities and rural –urban migration, is the trend towards increasing commercialisation in agriculture.We are seeing a move from labour intensive small holdings, with relatively low levels of capital intensity trough a process of land consolidation and increased capital intensity towards a high-input high-output agricultural systems. Including increasing mechanization reduced labour intensity…The Mekong delta is a paradigm example of this shift, we are seeing increased mechanization, land consolidation and increased size of agricultural holdings, lower levels of agricultural employment and higher landlessness and declining rural populations……
An indication of this shift to greater commercial production is increasing value of exports of agricultural communities.Dramatic increases in recent years….
Another indicator of the growing importance of agricultural commercialization, is the increase in agricultural land concessions in Laos and Cambodia. Here we have a map of Cambodia with the economic land concessions in yellow.It should be noted that figures for this are changing all the time as concessions are granted and as agreements lapse. So the estimates here might be different from other figures out there.The overall point is that these concessions are very significant and are an important part of agricultural commercialization.
Bringing this back to the impact on rural populations, this diagram shows the processes at work in a simplified wayThe key is rural livelihoods are subject to pressures, or migration push factors from increasing population in some areas, reduction in employment opportunities, and reduction in access to land due to land consolidation, conversion of land for other uses (infrastructure and urban development), and granting of land concessions in Cambodia and Lao PDR.As pointed out yesterday important migration pull factor of increased employment opportunities in urban areas.The nett result is a decline in livelihood opportunities in many rural areas – and population movement as a responseIf individuals have the requisite skills they are able to access urban labour marketsIf households have limited skills and are unable to access urban labour markets they tend to move to areas where they can make use of open access natural resources, frequently protected areas.E.g in the MKD landless Khmer families moving from central delta provinces to sparely populated areas of Ca Mau, similar patterns in Cambodia.
About 70% of households depend directly upon natural systems through agriculture, fisheries, livestock and NTFPs in the basin.That means about 44 million people currently in the basinDespite population movement – significant populations will remain in rural areas of the basin for decades, most of the poor and the most acutely poor in LMB countries will continue to live in rural areasIn short, despite the dynamism of the LMB region and rural livelihoods will continue to be of critical importance both for food supply and poverty reduction in the region. Therefore, within the time horizon of our study and despite agricultural commercialization, urban growth and population movement, rural livelihoods will remain important.
Chiang Mai, NE Thailand, Central Highlands of Viet Nam, some areas around Ton Le Sap and the flood plain, from Kratie southward all have relatively high population densities. With the exception of the central highlands upland areas tend to have low population densities Population densities in rural areas of NE Thailand and MKD are likely to be significantly overestimated due rural – urban migration in these areas and issues with enumerating migrants
Impressive poverty reduction across the region poverty rates remain highBut Chronic poverty remains an issueIf we look at the proportion of the population in LMB countries below 2.5 dollars a day – and therefore vulnerable to poverty – more than half the population falls below this threshold in Camboida, Laos and Viet Nam.
Food security indicators tell a similar storyHere we have two different measures of infant malnutritionDespite declines, malnutrition remains a problem – rates of decline also seemed to have slowed in recent years
This is based on a food security survey conducted in Loas – but similar patterns are repeated across many rural areas of Cambodia and to a lesser extent Viet Nam and Thailand where remittances are likely to be much more significantFood sources diverse for all groups, including own production, some sources are more important for different groups for example farmers rely more on their own production, and traders rely heavily on traded sources for food. Highest incidence of food insecurity is amongst the group defined here as unskilled labour – with small or no landholdings But the highest absolute number of food insecure households is amongst farmers - which make up the largest proportion of the population in the basin.
Fresh water fish consumption in LMB highest in the world according World FishOne of the largest inland capture fisheries in the worldThis is reflected in the importance of fish consumption for food security, and in particular as a source of fats and animal protein.Fish consumption is most important in Cambodia – especially around Ton Le Sap but in other areas too.
The problem the socio-economic analysis was faced with was how to interpret the ecological zones such that they related to the geospatial distribution of livelihood activities. Livelihoods are extremely varied within the basin, however, we identified 5 livelihood zones linked to typical agricultural and natural resource use patterns essentially representing an aggregation of the ecozones.We identified deltaic areas, flood plains, lowland and plateau areas, and upland areasFor the purposes of our analysis and we also divided upland areas into intensively farmed uplands and forested uplands using population density, resulting in an additional livelihood zone dividing the LMB into 5 zones in total.
1. To identify target provinces to inform our more general conclusions we identified five provinces that contained CC hotspot areas and were representative of the range of livelihood zones across the countries in which they occur.2. Our analysis is focusing on the livelihood zones in the provinces indicated – to identify how climate change threats are realized in terms of livelihoods.3. Now I will pass over to Paul, to talk about how we have gone about the CC vulnerability assessment in a little more detail.
1. Most of the increase in population is away from provincial centres. Caused by migration (mainly Khmer) to rural areas in search of natural resources.
Why is health important in terms of livelihoods? Inadequate health limits the capacity of individuals to engage in livelihood activities. A farmer spends less time in the fields if they are sick, a wild honey collector is unable to walk to all hives without the energy to walk. Moreover, inadequete health limits the productive use of food. What do we mean by infrastcruture? Here we are talking about physcial, stationary infrastcruture that enables households and communities to pursue and benefit from livelihood activities. Roads to allow the purchase and sale of products at district markets, grain storage facilities to allow rice to be stored and consumed before the next harvest.
Before discussing the results of our impact assessment for Mondulkiri, I think it is useful to position our analysis in relation to other sectors. There are two things to note here, firstly the ultimate purpose of the sectoral vulnerability assessments is really to understand how communities are affected by climate change through changes in these sectors. So part of the socio-economic team’s task is to interprete the sectoral impacts from a livelihoods perspective. Secondly, these major sectors do not capture all of the components of livelihoods. Two key aspects are missing: health and infrastrcuture. So before we can interprete and aggregate all of these impacts together, we first need to understand how health and infrastructure will be affected by climate change. I will concentrate on this initial step for most of this presentation, and provide some comments on the subsequent task at the end.
Why is health important in terms of livelihoods? Inadequate health limits the capacity of individuals to engage in livelihood activities. A farmer spends less time in the fields if they are sick, a wild honey collector is unable to walk to all hives without the energy to walk. Moreover, inadequete health limits the productive use of food. What do we mean by infrastcruture? Here we are talking about physcial, stationary infrastcruture that enables households and communities to pursue and benefit from livelihood activities. Roads to allow the purchase and sale of products at district markets, grain storage facilities to allow rice to be stored and consumed before the next harvest.
Criteria which we have been using for these concepts can be seen here and this really brings home the distinction between sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The sensitivity criteria is picking up the state of these key indicators which magnify the impact of climate change.
4 key vulnerabilities we have identified. For the province as a whole malaria is a key problem, 2/3 of households villages in and around MPF reported cases of malaria. Dengue fever is an issue.
4 key vulnerabilities we have identified. For the province as a whole malaria is a key problem, 2/3 of households villages in and around MPF reported cases of malaria. Dengue fever is an issue. Director General Thuc.
Around half of all households use surface water from rivers and streams as their primary water source.Most people don’t have access to adaequete sanitation. For KohNeak as a whole, 626 people per improved sanitation source. Diaorrohea is a commonly reported di
Why is health important in terms of livelihoods? Inadequate health limits the capacity of individuals to engage in livelihood activities. A farmer spends less time in the fields if they are sick, a wild honey collector is unable to walk to all hives without the energy to walk. Moreover, inadequete health limits the productive use of food. What do we mean by infrastcruture? Here we are talking about physcial, stationary infrastcruture that enables households and communities to pursue and benefit from livelihood activities. Roads to allow the purchase and sale of products at district markets, grain storage facilities to allow rice to be stored and consumed before the next harvest.