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State and Municipal Pension Reform in the US
           Where Does it Stand?

                           Eileen Norcross, M.A.
            Senior Research Fellow, State and Local Policy Project
                Mercatus Center at George Mason University



              Anton/Lippitt Conference on Urban Affairs
                  Taubman Center for Public Policy
                          Brown University
                          October 25, 2012
Three States with a State and a
 Municipal Pension Challenge
          Rhode Island

          Pennsylvania

           California
Rhode Island – Diagnose, Plan and Act
Truth in Numbers: “It’s a math problem”
• Notes the effect of FASB rules.
• Provides analysis with corporate bond yields at Treasury website.

ERS (GASB) = $4.7 billion
ERS (FASB)= $6.8 billion
ERS (MVL) = $11.4 billion

This doubles the normal cost- annual cost for current and future hires – from 10% to 25% of
salary

RI Retirement Security Act of 2011
1. Hybrid plan for all employees (except police)
2. COLA suspended until 80% funded
3. Retirement age match Social Security (67) for non-vested and new hires
5. Increase contribution (decreased for teachers)

Reduces unfunded liability by $3 billion
RI Municipalities
36 locally-administered plans in 24 Rhode Island
towns “at risk” (RI Auditor General)

GASB basis: unfunded liability of $2.1 billion (40
percent funding ratio, on average)

On MVL basis more acute funding gaps emerge

Combining MERS and local plans MVL: $6 billion
unfunded liability at municipal level.
Some considerations
Most muni pensions determined via collective bargaining
and not statute

Localities don’t require 100% funding (Moody’s singled
out Coventry)

POBs (Pension Obligation Bond) – Woonsocket $90
million in FY 2003 (bet that investment returns > interest)
2010: ARC = $2.7 million; debt service = $1.7 million

Other constraints : property tax caps; aid cuts
Why the municipal level really matters
 Costs can rise quickly and crowd out spending on
 basic services: police, fire, emergency.

 …using govn’t assumptions:
 Auditor General 2011: to fully fund pensions and
 OPEB = 25% of property tax levy.

 In certain localities, a far bigger portion:
 Woonsocket (61%), Providence (51%) and Johnston
 (47%)
Proposals for municipal reforms
     offered by RI Auditor General
• Require 100% funding of local plans
• Merge local plans into MERS
• Eliminate obstacles to merging
• Pension and OPEB outside of collective
  bargaining
• Muni reforms mirror state reforms
Progress to date
• RIRSA takes some funding pressure off of municipal governments
• “Toolkit” for municipalities
• Individual municipal plans requested

• Providence: 31 percent funded under GASB ($900 million unfunded
  liability)
    -union cooperation
    -freeze COLA
    -cap pensions

• Pension liability reduced by $170 million
   move retirees from OPEB to Medicare
   ($18.5 million in savings in FY 2013)
Pennsylvania – Talking About it
• State-level reform is being discussed
• Returns = 3.4% this year (not 7.5%)
• State unfunded liability: $40 billion
• Contribution triples (from $1.7 billion to 6.2
  billion in 3 years (that’s 11.6% of the General
  Fund)
• $116 billion on MVL basis
• 800,000 employees
Pennsylvania’s municipal plans
• 3,200 muni plans (one-quarter of all US muni
  plans are in Pennsylvania)
• 1,300 < 10 workers.
• $7 billion unfunded liability
• 27 are “severely distressed” <50% funded.
• MVL basis?
Of particular concern

                     Scranton        Pittsburg      Philadelphia
GASB unfunded        $60 million     $454 million   $4.7 billion
pension liability


Budget               $75.5 million   $469 million   $3.6 billion
Consequences
• Scranton is broke
• City officials cut salaries to minimum wage
• Similarities to Harrisburg (other debts figure
  into the picture)
• $ 5.5 million in interest on debt in FY 2013
PA Reform ideas and obstacles
• Merge muni plans into state plan?
• State is poorly funded: what’s their plan to fix
  it?
• By law, Pennsylvania municipalities must offer
  a DB and not a DC plan
California – All Over the Road
• Pension Liability at the state level is massive
• Major cities with problems: Los Angeles ($2 -
  $3 billion a year in benefits) $7.2 billion
  budget
• Tackling it? San Jose, San Diego (Proposition B)
• In bankruptcy: Stockton, San Bernardino
• San Bernardino has failed to make its payment
  ($290 million) to CalPERS
Principles for Reform
1) Truth in Pension Accounting
2) Get a plan
3) If you guarantee it, value and fund the plan like
   you mean it.
4) The role of skipping contributions, abuses,
   budget or funding gimmicks, risk-taking in assets
5) Intergenerational fairness (among workers and
   taxpayers)
6) Choice and Flexibility for Employees
7) Shift Risk Away from Government/Taxpayer.
Two cities to consider
• Atlanta: $1.5 billion unfunded liability
• Annual contributions doubled to $119 million
  over the last decade
• Phase out DB plan, move new hires to hybrid.
• Philadelphia now looking to Atlanta.
Conclusion
Public Policy Students:
  This is a great area to study from many possible
                        angles
• Financial
• Economic Behavior
• Fiscal and Budgetary
• Legal and Constitutional (rules, contracts)
• Government (federalism/ state and local)
• Public Policy and Public Administration
References
1)    M. Barton Waring, Pension Finance, Wiley 2012
2)    Olivia Mitchell, Wharton, U Penn; https://bepp.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/719/research
3)    Alicia Munnell, Boston College Center for Retirement Research http://crr.bc.edu/
4)    Robert Novy-Marx and Joshua Rauh, “The Revenue Demands of Public Employee Promises,”
      September, 2012 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1973668
5)    RI Auditor General reports: http://www.oag.state.ri.us/reports/MuniPensionsRI2011.pdf

6)     Pennsylvania Auditor General reports: http://www.auditorgen.state.pa.us/Reports/MunPen.html
7)     http://www.auditorgen.state.pa.us/
8)     Distressed PA municipalities data:
9)     http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/community/perc_home/2513/act_205_distress_s
       cores/735168
10) Joe Nation, Pension Math, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, December, 2011.
http://siepr.stanford.edu/system/files/shared/Nation%20Statewide%20Report%20v081.pdf
1)      Eileen Norcross and Andrew Biggs The Crisis in Public Sector Pension Plans: A Blueprint for
       Reform in New Jersey, June 2010, Mercatus Center at George Mason University.
http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/publication/WP1031-%20NJ%20Pensions.pdf

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Pensions in Peril: How Municipalities Are Defusing This Fiscal Time Bomb

  • 1. State and Municipal Pension Reform in the US Where Does it Stand? Eileen Norcross, M.A. Senior Research Fellow, State and Local Policy Project Mercatus Center at George Mason University Anton/Lippitt Conference on Urban Affairs Taubman Center for Public Policy Brown University October 25, 2012
  • 2. Three States with a State and a Municipal Pension Challenge Rhode Island Pennsylvania California
  • 3. Rhode Island – Diagnose, Plan and Act Truth in Numbers: “It’s a math problem” • Notes the effect of FASB rules. • Provides analysis with corporate bond yields at Treasury website. ERS (GASB) = $4.7 billion ERS (FASB)= $6.8 billion ERS (MVL) = $11.4 billion This doubles the normal cost- annual cost for current and future hires – from 10% to 25% of salary RI Retirement Security Act of 2011 1. Hybrid plan for all employees (except police) 2. COLA suspended until 80% funded 3. Retirement age match Social Security (67) for non-vested and new hires 5. Increase contribution (decreased for teachers) Reduces unfunded liability by $3 billion
  • 4. RI Municipalities 36 locally-administered plans in 24 Rhode Island towns “at risk” (RI Auditor General) GASB basis: unfunded liability of $2.1 billion (40 percent funding ratio, on average) On MVL basis more acute funding gaps emerge Combining MERS and local plans MVL: $6 billion unfunded liability at municipal level.
  • 5. Some considerations Most muni pensions determined via collective bargaining and not statute Localities don’t require 100% funding (Moody’s singled out Coventry) POBs (Pension Obligation Bond) – Woonsocket $90 million in FY 2003 (bet that investment returns > interest) 2010: ARC = $2.7 million; debt service = $1.7 million Other constraints : property tax caps; aid cuts
  • 6. Why the municipal level really matters Costs can rise quickly and crowd out spending on basic services: police, fire, emergency. …using govn’t assumptions: Auditor General 2011: to fully fund pensions and OPEB = 25% of property tax levy. In certain localities, a far bigger portion: Woonsocket (61%), Providence (51%) and Johnston (47%)
  • 7. Proposals for municipal reforms offered by RI Auditor General • Require 100% funding of local plans • Merge local plans into MERS • Eliminate obstacles to merging • Pension and OPEB outside of collective bargaining • Muni reforms mirror state reforms
  • 8. Progress to date • RIRSA takes some funding pressure off of municipal governments • “Toolkit” for municipalities • Individual municipal plans requested • Providence: 31 percent funded under GASB ($900 million unfunded liability) -union cooperation -freeze COLA -cap pensions • Pension liability reduced by $170 million move retirees from OPEB to Medicare ($18.5 million in savings in FY 2013)
  • 9. Pennsylvania – Talking About it • State-level reform is being discussed • Returns = 3.4% this year (not 7.5%) • State unfunded liability: $40 billion • Contribution triples (from $1.7 billion to 6.2 billion in 3 years (that’s 11.6% of the General Fund) • $116 billion on MVL basis • 800,000 employees
  • 10. Pennsylvania’s municipal plans • 3,200 muni plans (one-quarter of all US muni plans are in Pennsylvania) • 1,300 < 10 workers. • $7 billion unfunded liability • 27 are “severely distressed” <50% funded. • MVL basis?
  • 11. Of particular concern Scranton Pittsburg Philadelphia GASB unfunded $60 million $454 million $4.7 billion pension liability Budget $75.5 million $469 million $3.6 billion
  • 12. Consequences • Scranton is broke • City officials cut salaries to minimum wage • Similarities to Harrisburg (other debts figure into the picture) • $ 5.5 million in interest on debt in FY 2013
  • 13. PA Reform ideas and obstacles • Merge muni plans into state plan? • State is poorly funded: what’s their plan to fix it? • By law, Pennsylvania municipalities must offer a DB and not a DC plan
  • 14. California – All Over the Road • Pension Liability at the state level is massive • Major cities with problems: Los Angeles ($2 - $3 billion a year in benefits) $7.2 billion budget • Tackling it? San Jose, San Diego (Proposition B) • In bankruptcy: Stockton, San Bernardino • San Bernardino has failed to make its payment ($290 million) to CalPERS
  • 15. Principles for Reform 1) Truth in Pension Accounting 2) Get a plan 3) If you guarantee it, value and fund the plan like you mean it. 4) The role of skipping contributions, abuses, budget or funding gimmicks, risk-taking in assets 5) Intergenerational fairness (among workers and taxpayers) 6) Choice and Flexibility for Employees 7) Shift Risk Away from Government/Taxpayer.
  • 16. Two cities to consider • Atlanta: $1.5 billion unfunded liability • Annual contributions doubled to $119 million over the last decade • Phase out DB plan, move new hires to hybrid. • Philadelphia now looking to Atlanta.
  • 17. Conclusion Public Policy Students: This is a great area to study from many possible angles • Financial • Economic Behavior • Fiscal and Budgetary • Legal and Constitutional (rules, contracts) • Government (federalism/ state and local) • Public Policy and Public Administration
  • 18. References 1) M. Barton Waring, Pension Finance, Wiley 2012 2) Olivia Mitchell, Wharton, U Penn; https://bepp.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/719/research 3) Alicia Munnell, Boston College Center for Retirement Research http://crr.bc.edu/ 4) Robert Novy-Marx and Joshua Rauh, “The Revenue Demands of Public Employee Promises,” September, 2012 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1973668 5) RI Auditor General reports: http://www.oag.state.ri.us/reports/MuniPensionsRI2011.pdf 6) Pennsylvania Auditor General reports: http://www.auditorgen.state.pa.us/Reports/MunPen.html 7) http://www.auditorgen.state.pa.us/ 8) Distressed PA municipalities data: 9) http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/community/perc_home/2513/act_205_distress_s cores/735168 10) Joe Nation, Pension Math, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, December, 2011. http://siepr.stanford.edu/system/files/shared/Nation%20Statewide%20Report%20v081.pdf 1) Eileen Norcross and Andrew Biggs The Crisis in Public Sector Pension Plans: A Blueprint for Reform in New Jersey, June 2010, Mercatus Center at George Mason University. http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/publication/WP1031-%20NJ%20Pensions.pdf