Brief Analysis of Real Estate Development Market in Russia

1. PANEL SESSION: The complexities of the development sector What does it take to stay ahead of the competition?
Developing in Russia and other CIS markets - are there enough projects in the pipeline?
By Michael Klimusha
VP, Corporate Finance
FERRO-STORY Group
CELL. MTS: + 985 643 05 77
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add. e-mail: miklimusha@hotmail.com

2. “Buy land. They do not produce it anymore”.
Mark Twain

3. Developing in Russia and other CIS markets – ARE THERE ENOUGH PROJECTS IN THE PIPELINE?
ARE THERE ENOUGH PROJECTS IN THE PIPELINE?
We think YES. THAT’S WHY:
DEEP RESTRUCTURING OF THE ECONOMY: FROM CENTRALIZED INDUSTRIAL / RAW MATERIALS TO MARKET
ECONOMY
ECOMONY IS STILL ON THE CONTINOUS (5TH
YEAR) RISING LINE THANKING TO HIGH RAW MATERIALS PRICES AND
POLITICAL STABILITY, additional factors: Olympic games)
YOUNG MARKET – “REAL ESTATE” AS A DEFINITION APPEARED IN RUSSIA ONLY IN 1990-ies
FUNDAMENTAL DISTORTIONS IN REAL ESTATE PROGRESS DURING SOVIET ERA, TOPPED BY SHOCK
TURBULANCES OF TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY IN 1999-ies. SOVIET CULTURE OF CITY DEVELOPMENT DURING 1920-
90-ies WAS CONSERVATIVE, MISER, AND DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT FROM CAPITALIST WORLD PATTERN
DESPITE TO CERTAIN YIELD COMPRESSION, PREMIUMS TO INVESTORS ARE STILL ATTRACTIVE
REAL ESTATE MARKET IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE SYSTEMATIC AND BETTER ORGANIZED (ETHICS,
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, CAPITAL & CAPITALIZATION, LEGISLATION, DEVELOPMENT, NON-QUALIFIED
PARTICIPANTS are gradually squized from out of the market mostly due to the liquidity problems, TECHNOLOGY AND SKILLS,
QUALIFICATION OF LOCAL PERSONNEL AND MANAGEMENT? )
GOVERNMENT IS SMOOTHLY TAKING LARGER LEAD IN THE MARKET
3

4. LAND INVESTMENT PROFITABILITY: UK
LAND (UK)
370 %
S&P 500
110 %
NASDAQ
109 %
FTSE All Shares
56 %
FTSE 100 (
51 %
10- years return: 1994-2004
2004
10TH
YEAR OF CONTINUOUS
LAND PRICE GROWTH ALL
OVER THE CAPITALIST
WORLD
IN UK, LAND GROWN IN
PRICE FOR
370%
Source: Ferro Stroy , UK Land Investments Group, Bloomberg, Reuters, N?ASDAQ, NYSE 4

5. 2006
12th
OF CONTINUOUS LAND
PRICES GROWTH ALL OVER
THE CAPITALIST WORLD
During 2000 - 2006, Russian land
grown in price 1
by
700%
RUSSIAN LAND INVESTMENT: BETTER THAN THE DIAMONDS
OR RUSSIAN LAND IS THE BEST INVESTORS’ FRIEND
LAND (Russia) 1
700 %
Crude Oil
350 %
Gold
150 %
Diamonds
21 %
6 –years (2000-2006 гг.), price dynamics
1. So during last 6-7 years land grown in price all over developed world, whilst Russia more than double average growth
rate..
2. And this goes with the fact that Russia occupies 1/6 of the globe’s dry surface.
Ист.: UK Land Investments Group
LAND (UK) - period of 1994 - 2004
370 %
1
– усредненный показатель по фактически состоявшимся коммерческим сделкам по всем категориям земель
5

7. Developing in Russia and other CIS markets – ARE THERE ENOUGH PROJECTS IN THE PIPELINE?
ARE THERE ENOUGH PROJECTS IN THE PIPELINE?
We think YES. THAT’S WHY:
DEEP RESTRUCTURING OF THE ECONOMY: FROM CENTRALIZED INDUSTRIAL / RAW MATERIALS TO MARKET
ECONOMY
ECOMONY IS STILL ON THE CONTINOUS (5TH
YEAR) RISING LINE THANKING TO HIGH RAW MATERIALS PRICES AND
POLITICAL STABILITY, additional factors: Olympics,
YOUNG MARKET – “REAL ESTATE” AS A DEFINITION APPEARED IN RUSSIA ONLY IN 1990-ies
FUNDAMENTAL DISTORTIONS IN REAL ESTATE PROGRESS DURING SOVIET ERA, TOPPED BY SHOCK
TURBULANCES OF TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY IN 1999-ies. SOVIET CULTURE OF CITY DEVELOPMENT DURING 1920-
90-ies WAS CONSERVATIVE, MISER, AND DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT FROM CAPITALIST WORLD PATTERN
DESPITE TO CERTAIN YIELD COMPRESSION, PREMIUMS TO INVESTORS ARE STILL ATTRACTIVE
REAL ESTATE MARKET IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE SYSTEMATIC AND BETTER ORGANIZED (ETHICS,
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, CAPITAL & CAPITALIZATION, LEGISLATION, DEVELOPMENT, NON-QUALIFIED
PARTICIPANTS are graduallly squizzed from out of the market mostly due to the liquidity problems, TECHNOLOGY AND SKILLS,
QUALIFICATION OF LOCAL PERSONNEL AND MANAGEMENT?)
GOVERNMENT IS SMOOTHLY TAKING LARGER LEAD IN THE MARKET
7

8. Office Density, м2/ 1 person Retail Density, м2/1000 persons
8RUSSIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET IS JUST FLEDGING
Moscow
Frankfurt
Stockholm
Paris
London
Milan
Average
19.3
13.7
6.0
5.3
5.0
3.5
0.8
594
1 111
667
397
572
619
163
Warehousing Density, м2/1000 persons*.
Yield, Office, %/annum * Yield, Retails, , %/annum * Yield, Warehouse, %/annum
Moscow
Frankfurt
Stockholm
Paris
London
Milan
5.5 (1.3)
5.0 (1.2)
5.25 (0.6)
4.88 (0.67)
4.75 (0.53)
12.5 (6.3)
5.0 (0.8)
5.38 (1.58)
5.88 (1.23)
5.06 (0.85)
5.06 (0.84)
12.0 (5.8)
* - in brakes = discounted by international sovereign risk
7.75 (3.55)
5.38 (1.58)
5.88 (1.23)
5.75 (1.54)
7.25 (3.03)
12.0 (5.8)
Moscow
Budapest
Prague
Warsaw 830
770
610
260
* - categories A, B.
Ист.: Deutsche Bank, Rennaissance, UBS
Not satisfactory saturation of the market platforms further sound growth rates for 3-7 years.
Despite to the yields compression, good premiums for investors are still there.
8

9. Housing Density, м2/ 1 person.*
9RUSSIAN HOUSING
Russia
USA
France
Germany
Sweden
Canada
Av. Europe
70
43
40
40
40
35
20
68 mln m2 of housing / annum in Soviet Russia only (not all USSR) – by that time major
volume of post-war resurrection construction was already complete.
In 2000-07 housing construction rose to 37 mln m2 / annum after dramatic drop and
suspension in 1990-ies .
Based on depreciations charts, simple reproduction volume shall be at 58 mln m2 / annum.
Source: Rosstat, Deutsche Bank, Minpromenergo RF, Minpromregionrazvitiya RF
* - this quotient is seriously overestimated for Russia as official data on Russian housing include premises
which would not be considered housing-class in the West. On the contrary, denominators part (population) is
underestimated as it does not include legal and non-legal immigrants. We consider level of 15 m2 / person
be more realistic.
Statistical Committee of EU classification mean “overinhabited” any apartment with more than 1 person per room – typical for Russia.
Government sets target of 32 m2 housing / citizen. To hit the target, construction shall rise from 40 mln m2/ year to 80 mln m2 / year from 2010
on.
Interesting fact: Moscow is taking only 65th
place in Russian rating of housing density (out of total of 89 regions).
In fact, Russia is country of millions of homeless or quasi-homeless people, living in obsolete and premises with share of fully depreciated
housing close to 70%.
Unsatisfied demand for housing is estimated at 1 bln m2. At current construction rate of 40 mln m2 / annum it will take 25 years to satisfy.
The specialists say that demand will grow to 3 bln m2 by 2012.
9

10. Developing in Russia and other CIS markets – ARE THERE ENOUGH PROJECTS IN THE PIPELINE?
ARE THERE ENOUGH PROJECTS IN THE PIPELINE?
We think YES. THAT’S WHY:
DEEP RESTRUCTURING OF THE ECONOMY: FROM CENTRALIZED INDUSTRIAL / RAW MATERIALS TO MARKET
ECONOMY
ECOMONY IS STILL ON THE CONTINOUS (5TH
YEAR) RISING LINE THANKING TO HIGH RAW MATERIALS PRICES AND
POLITICAL STABILITY, additional factors: Olympics,
YOUNG MARKET – “REAL ESTATE” AS A DEFINITION APPEARED IN RUSSIA ONLY IN 1990-ies
FUNDAMENTAL DISTORTIONS IN REAL ESTATE PROGRESS DURING SOVIET ERA, TOPPED BY SHOCK
TURBULANCES OF TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY IN 1999-ies. SOVIET CULTURE OF CITY DEVELOPMENT DURING 1920-
90-ies WAS CONSERVATIVE, MISER, AND DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT FROM CAPITALIST WORLD PATTERN
DESPITE TO CERTAIN YIELD COMPRESSION, PREMIUMS TO INVESTORS ARE STILL ATTRACTIVE
REAL ESTATE MARKET IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE SYSTEMATIC AND BETTER ORGANIZED (ETHICS,
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, CAPITAL & CAPITALIZATION, LEGISLATION, DEVELOPMENT, NON-QUALIFIED
PARTICIPANTS are graduallly squizzed from out of the market mostly due to the liquidity problems, TECHNOLOGY AND SKILLS,
QUALIFICATION OF LOCAL PERSONNEL AND MANAGEMENT?)
GOVERNMENT IS SMOOTHLY TAKING LARGER LEAD IN THE MARKET
10

11. 11ABSENCE OF DOWTOWNS
Practically no Russian cities, except Moscow, have downtown area in international understanding.
In Moscow, downtown was traditionally coinciding with historical part of the city, almost like in London prior to Canary Wharf project
completion. As the territory has a number of limitations for massive complex development, new offices were dispersed and not bound by
through-by infrastructure. The situation in Moscow is starting to change as Moscow City project successfully moves on, following best
practices of complex large projects development.
The rest of Russian cities do not have downtowns as such, due to Soviet guideline and style. In new Russia, serious investors who would
undertake projects of such scale and complexity in regional cities are still rare.
That’s why, in Russian cities, downtown is represented by historical and local authorities administrative buildings concepnration = square +
citihall + concert hall + park + industrial areas starting straight on.
No downtowns in Russian cities except Moscow, possibly SaintPetersburg soon.
No systematic approach to complex downtown areas in Russian cities except Moscow and
SaintPetersburg yet.
11
WHAT IS DOWNTOWN?
Town, is fact, is an aggregate of human gravity centers bound by infrastructure.
А downtown, by international practice, is a city in the town – multifunctional complex which includes offices, retails, hotels, expo and
congregation halls, recreational areas, residence, parking.
It does supposes smart infrastructure, good location, not necessarily next to historic center but more important close to water massive, good
landscape esthetics. It must have a stamp of respectability and prestige: best real estate, best tenants, best goods, best foods, best people.
So, downtown can be called as aggregate of real estate gravity centers for people who appreciate and can afford quality and related comfort.

12. 12TO DEVELOP DOWNTOWNS ON THE TERRITORIES OF RELOCATING INDUSTRIAL AREAS
Elite residence
PLUSes MINUSes
Industrial zones are located in geographical
centers of Russian cities, often in historical
parts, with good basis for infrastructure
development.
Demand for elite housing is growing, supply
lags behind, big deficit accrued.
Good economics for developer.
Large territories of industrial zones – creation of
huge elite residence district can bring the market
down.
Ecological renovation costs may be material.
Retail
Deficit of quality supply
Good economics
Строить
порционно
Территории промзон велики, строить моллы в
центре города неэффективно
Строить
порционно
Офисы
Дефицит качественного предложения во всех
городах, включая Москву, особенно класса А.
В промзонах крупных предприятий, как
правило, решена проблема транспортной
доступности (подъездные ж/д и а/м пути на
подвоз сырья и вывоз готовой продукции,
которые могут быть переформатированы)
Хорошая экономика
Строить
порционно,
только класс А
Логистика
Как правило, промзоны тяжелого
машиностроениея расположены на участках с
хорошими геологическими условиями,
благоприятствующими строительству
подземных сооружений.
Рост спроса и дефицит предложения
наблюдается во всех городах. Хорошая
экономика.
Использовать центр города для строительства
наземных складов неоптимально
(неэффективное использование земли,
проблемы с логистикой)
Предусматривать
возможность
строительства
подземных
складов,
обеспечивающих
работу наземных
сооружений
SOLUTION
Компания, которая будет владеть крупными площадями промзон либо в центрах, либо на перифериях городов, должна выбрать
концепцию создания downtown-ов, т.е. строительства деловых многофункциональных центров - кварталов, отвечающих
международным стандартам, т.е. по сути, стать единым девелопером деловых частей соответствующих городов.
Практически отсутствуют
12

13. Developing in Russia and other CIS markets – ARE THERE ENOUGH PROJECTS IN THE PIPELINE?
ARE THERE ENOUGH PROJECTS IN THE PIPELINE?
We think YES. THAT’S WHY:
DEEP RESTRUCTURING OF THE ECONOMY: FROM CENTRALIZED INDUSTRIAL / RAW MATERIALS TO MARKET
ECONOMY
ECOMONY IS STILL ON THE CONTINOUS (5TH
YEAR) RISING LINE THANKING TO HIGH RAW MATERIALS PRICES AND
POLITICAL STABILITY, additional factors: Olympics,
YOUNG MARKET – “REAL ESTATE” AS A DEFINITION APPEARED IN RUSSIA ONLY IN 1990-ies
FUNDAMENTAL DISTORTIONS IN REAL ESTATE PROGRESS DURING SOVIET ERA, TOPPED BY SHOCK
TURBULANCES OF TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY IN 1999-ies. SOVIET CULTURE OF CITY DEVELOPMENT DURING 1920-
90-ies WAS CONSERVATIVE, MISER, AND DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT FROM CAPITALIST WORLD PATTERN
DESPITE TO CERTAIN YIELD COMPRESSION, PREMIUMS TO INVESTORS ARE STILL ATTRACTIVE
REAL ESTATE MARKET IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE SYSTEMATIC AND BETTER ORGANIZED (ETHICS,
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, CAPITAL & CAPITALIZATION, LEGISLATION, DEVELOPMENT, NON-QUALIFIED
PARTICIPANTS are graduallly squizzed from out of the market mostly due to the liquidity problems, TECHNOLOGY AND SKILLS,
QUALIFICATION OF LOCAL PERSONNEL AND MANAGEMENT?)
GOVERNMENT IS SMOOTHLY TAKING LARGER LEAD IN THE MARKET
13

14. 3 month18 month6 month6 month
Value adding & Profitability
$ mln / Ha
TOTAL
Agricultural land Housing land
(with plug-in
permission)
Land with
construction
permit
Building completeLand with last-mile
infrastructure
sale
Land Development Project Development Constructor Realtor
WHAT
WHEN
Land with
construction permit
& infrastructure
Profitability
Cost
Profit
Simultaneously
source: McKinsey & Co.
SAMPL
WHO
6 month
0.3
0.3
0.3
>100%
100% 0.4
0.4
100%
0.2
0.1
>200% 0.5
0.3
100%
0.3
1.5
<25%
0.1
0.1
100%
2.7
2.0
4 month
75%
Х %
2 month
RUSSIAN REst MARKET: VALUE ADDING CHAIN
Circa 3 years
14

15. 15
DEVELOPMENT COST (MOSCOW)
Class А Office
$ / m2 GBA (incl. VAT), market price
Land works (100)
Cement (360)
Metals (180)
Engineering (w/o Electricity) (240)
Electricity (60)
Labour (240)
Land & Documentation * (1 193)
TOTAL (2 373)
• CONSTRUCTION PERIOD, months: 24
• GLA/GBA: 70%
• min IRR (for discount): 12%
•COST OF m2 GLA: $ 4 377
TOTAL discounted
at min IRR rate
(3 064)
- Level Movement Forecast
Source: Ferro Stroy, Deutsche UFG, Open Investments,
Most successful developers do
know how to minimize this
component, pressing it down to
100-300 $ in best cases.
* In todays. Moscow this components is offered on the market at 1000 – 2000$/m2, average of 1500$/m2. Major sellers are, of course, “Dogs on the Hay” (see “WHO IS
WHO” slide) . Interesting enough, these offer prices are almost not differentiated by categories of REst, i.e. offices of A Class, offices of B Class and residential projects are
offered at similar rates
SAMPL
15

16. 16WHO IS WHO ON RUSSIAN REst MARKET
NIGGARD KNIGHTS
DOGS ON THE HAY
BREED BULLS
SLEEPING ELEPHANTS
FAIRPOTENTIALNAVVALUE
CAPITALIZATION
Capitalization chances are poor, but NAV of
projects in owners is potentially over 300-500 $
mln.
Can’t haul serious projects on their own, not
enough expertise & capital. Usually hard to sell
their projects as unable to define fair price and are
scared to underprice. That’s why, they usually do
not sell 100%, but up to 50% share in the project to
have upside. As time goes and pressure grows, they
are more willing to cash out.
Have better knowledge of the market than Dog on
the Hay. Often they are old, small to medium
construction companies.
Owners of REst assets in range of 5 -100 $ mln
good for development.
In principle, never have beeen and never will be
professional players in REst.
No money for development. Have a pity to sell, look
for the well-capitalized partners.
As time goes and pressure grows, strive for cash out.
- Suggested tactics towards the Group
BUY ASSETS + BUY PLAYERS
BUY ASSETS
BE THERE
Professional players.
Good resource base . Good background balanced
with current portfolio and pipeline.
Well capitalized.
BUY ASSETS. CREATE JVs
Well capitalized, but do not specialize in REst
development.
Have a plenty of extremely interesting assets with huge
potential. Often, are willing to negotiate JVs with
professional players.
Extremely interesting strategically.
Everybody wants to be a Pedigree Bull.
For acquisitions, especially by western
investors, Niggard Knights are the most
interesting targets, as in most of the cases they
have relatively good reputations on the market,
mostly as old construction companies. With
reputation goes opportunity to acquire
interesting project, though now this relation
diverges. In any case, e.g., Sistema GALS and
AFI in due time were serious to infrastructural
projects, which let them to establish
accreditation with the City Administration. In
this way or another, all current public
developers undergone similar stages.
Many Niggard Knights are going their own
Bulls’ way already.
Dogs on the Hay are very specific and
numerous type. There is a certain share of sane
owners here which are prepared to sell
interesting assets.
It is highly recommended to buy out 100%
assets from them straight, as in most of the
cases any JV become hard burden for acquirer
(conflicts, etc.).
Sleeping Elephatns are the systemic keepers of
the biggest land and other REst assets for
development. Moajor Elephant is, of course, the
State itself, as directly, so through government
owned blue-chips.
In this sense, situation is very similar to, say, the
Western Europe..
• Government, in general
•Gazprom
•RZhD
•Aeroflot
• other
Adult
•AFI
• PIK
• Sistema HALS
•RGI
•Other .
Young
• RBI
• BIG
• Leader
• LEK
•Etc.
Source: FERRO-STROY 16

17. 17
CAPITALIZATION
NAV,
CURRENT ORPOTENTIAL
Sistema HALS
AFI
Open Investments
Mirland
RGIRBI
PIK 11 400 / 8 800
М’$
940 / 85
590 / 94
1 300 / 1 000
3 200 / 2 000
5 700 / 3 200
ТММ (|Ukraine) 870 / 400
XXI Vek (Ukraine) 400 / 200
Targets for M&A*
Summary current
value of assets
owned by this
segment counts
for trillions
dollars, today.
Non-developers are not included into analysis . Still, it is worthwhile to mention that such large corporation as
Russian Railways (RAO RZhD) , Russian Energy Systems (RAO EES), Gazprom and other are: (1) well
capitalized; (2) owing or controlling huge real estate massive eligible for redevelopment. At the end of the
day. Like in the most of the world, the largest real estate owner is Government. But it is still hard to classify
such players as developers.
These must grow
Exceptionally
lucky will grow
up
Most participants
will leave the
markets, either
voluntarily or not
_
GlavmostStroy
DonStroy
MCG
MIRAX
ST Development
The number of small player swill not decrease,
but share of each of them will.
On other hand, though the number of large
players will not increase dramatically, the
market share of each of them will continue to
grow.
– will capitalize soon
WHERE TO BUY A COMPANY OR ASSET
Source: FERRO-STROY 17

18. Sale or
18
VA CHAIN
PROFIT DISTRIBUTION
60% (IRR 50% - 300%)
34% (IRR 21% - 140%)
10%
5% (IRR 9% - 12%)
Investment Pre-Development
RUSSIAN REst MARKET: VALUE CHAIN & WHO IS WHO
Many little players are dreaming to sell up 50% of the project at this stage to
financially valuable partner who will take further care of financing and project
management routine.
Construction
ConceptBuy land Documentation Development rent Management
1%
Leaders: well capitalized, structured, managed , skillful, progressing. Usually, go all the way through the chain. First steps of the
chain generate major profit, further steps do reputation, volumes and stability in cash flows.
Industry Specialised Players: construction co.s, realtors, local lawers, tc. Do know
the market specifics, so are tended to take part in early chain steps.A massive of little “ no name” players attracted by
the margins.
Usually, do not plan to move much further through
the chain, look for selling 30-60% in project.
Western Funds
Pure RealtorsPure Constructors
Ист.: анализ рабочей группы
WHO’S WHO?

19. 19
INDUSTRIAL ZONES
Ист.:Правительство г. Москва, Департамент земельных ресурсов Правительства г. Москва
As per the city hall data, there are 66 industrial zones in Moscow, or over 4 000 enterprises which occupy nearly 20 000 hectares of city land.
INDUSTRIAL ZONES REDEVELOPMENT HAS STARTED NOT ONLY IN MOSCOW:
• Though Moscow makes the process the most systematically and consistently: the city authorities approved industrial relocation program
as early as at the beginning of 1990-ies. The struggle is on.
• Cheboksary: several industrial factories have decided to relocate themselves from city center to suburbs to build multifunctional
commercial centers on the currently occupied locations.
• Rostov-na-Donu: city authorities are actively pursuading industrial enterprises in the city line to move to suburbs in accordance with new
city General plan. Otherwise, city will rise the land lease rates.
• Kemerovo: factories are moving to suburbs.
• Tyumen: industrial units are moving outside the cities in accordance with new General Plan.
CURIOUS (though very rough) ARITHMETICS: by amateur’s way, if to take potential density of construction equal to 20 000 sq. m. /
hectare (near to average in Moscow) then volume of future buildings new sq meters which can be created on contemporary Moscow’s
industrial zones is
400 000 000 sq.m.
If to multiply these meters by hypothetical market price of $4 000 / sq. meter, then we have amount of
$1 600 000 000

20. 20WHY RUSSIAN INDUSTRIAL ZONES ARE ESPECIALLY INTERESTING FOR DEVELOPMENT
Fundamentals
History: the Soviet economy had natural resources – industrial orientation, in the circumstances of intensive
industrialization. . Supremacy of proletarians was state doctrine . The new city were developed by industrial
needs: (1) natural resources deposit start; (2) factory build in area of deposit; (3) city for workers is build around
the deposit and factory . Industrial enterprise supply the city with electricity, water, heat, subsidizes social
infrastructure, operates logistical supplies. Transport systems of the city is also build to serve dual function – for
the city and for the factory. The model was effective in full mobilization of national resources , especially during
WWII, when tremendous facilities and human resources of industry were to be relocated fast to new locations.
Between 1917 and 1941 the number of cities grown three times.
Besides, the modern definition Real Estate was introduced to Russian vocabulary only in 1990-ies.
Исторические, идеологические и культурные предпосылки: основная масса российских городов
построена по принципу средневековых городов или античных городов-государств. В центре города:
большая площадь (на ней раньше казнили, объявляли новости, проводились массовые гуляния, парады и
т.д.) и здания органов власти (администрации). Если на Западе от этой концепции постепенно и
полностью отошли к началу XX века, то в России концепция была законсервирована тем, что в начале
прошлого столетия основной политической доктриной была провозглашена диктатура пролетариата, и
город стал тесно ассоциироваться с промышленным производством: в городе – рабочие (в селе –
крестьяне). Рабочим были «нужны»: конечно, прежде всего - завод, а потом и большой концертный зал,
центральная площадь, и здание городской администрации.
Текущие макроэкономические предпосылки: экономика России продолжает диверсифицироваться от
промышленно-сырьевой к сервисно-производственной модели. Это усиливает развитие городов, но не
развитие промзон, которые в них находятся. По сравнению с советским периодом растет
производительность труда: заводам не нужны такие большие территории, как раньше.
Текущие
предпосылки
Основное развитие рынка недвижимости ближайших 5-7 лет придется на российские города, и не только
Москву. Формируется рынок земли, индустрия девелопмента. Продолжается урбанизация экономики,
сокращается доля жителей сельской местности. Земля дорожает, особенно в городах, особенно пригодная
для строительства. Объемы потребностей промышленных предприятий в объектах недвижимости
существенно сократились. Усиливается экологический фактор.
Таким образом, в России сложилась уникальная ситуация с промзонами: их много, многие находятся в местах
крайне интересных для девелопмента недвижимости, они не нужны промышленникам для основной
деятельности в таком объеме, как раньше в результате сокращения производства и/или роста производительности.
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21. ГЕОГРАФИЧЕСКИЙ ФОКУС НА 5 ЛЕТ
РАСТИ ВМЕСТЕ С НАИБОЛЕЕ ПРИВЛЕКАТЕЛЬНЫМИ РЫНКАМИ, ОПЕРЕЖАЯ ТЕМПЫ ИХ РОСТА ИСПОЛЬЗУЯ
КОНКУРЕНТНЫЕ ПРЕИМУЩЕСТВА, ЗА СЧЕТ РОСТА ИЗНУТРИ И ЗА СЧЕТ ПРИОБРЕТЕНИЙ МЕСТНЫХ ИГРОКОВ.
ЗОНОЙ ИНТЕРЕСОВ ЯВЛЯЮТСЯ ТОЛЬКО ГОРОДА С ЧИСЛЕННОСТЬЮ > 100 тыс. чел.
ПРИОРИТЕТ № 1: Европейская часть
России до Урала включительно, Украина
• Самая высокая плотность городского
населения (53 млн. чел/2.8 млн. кв.км) *
•Самая высокая степень урбанизации
• 84% розничного оборота
• Основная масса офисных рабочих мест
ПРИОРИТЕТ № 2: Южная Сибирь
• вторая по величине плотность
городского населения после Европейской
части (7.3 млн. чел./2.7 млн. кв.км.) *
• высокий платежеспособный спрос
• большое количество городов
промышленного типа
• 12% розничного оборота
ПРИОРИТЕТ № 3: другие регионы России
• низкая плотность населения (10 млн.
чел./11.5 млн. кв.км.) *
• низкий уровень доходов
• низкая деловая активность
• низкая доля офисных рабочих мест
• всего 4% от розничного оборота
* - только города с населением > 100 тыс. чел.
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22. 22
• Государство, представленное различными органами государственной власти и местного самоуправления,
Вооруженными силами, отдельными государственные предприятия,
•Неэффективные предприятия, в основном бывшие государственные;
•Научные и образовательные организации;
• Различные религиозные и общественные организации;
• Спортивные и культурные организации;
•Частные компании и организации, не имеющие экспертизы по недвижимости;
• Владельцы «по случаю»,
• Несостоявшиеся девелоперы.
Практически все вышеперечисленные земли не используются, либо используются не оптимально, по
ряду причин:
•Коммерческое использование земель не является основной деятельностью землевладельца;
•Не достает профессиональных знаний;
•Есть другие коммерческие интересы;
•Некоммерческие мотивы (напр., политические или религиозные).
При этом, большинство собственников были бы заинтересованы в коммерческом использовании земельных
ресурсов при наличии специалиста, имеющего безупречную репутацию и обладающего достаточным
уровнем профессионализма.
ГДЕ ПРИОБРЕТАТЬ ПРОЕКТЫ (продолжение)
Неоптимальные
владельцы
Использование возможностей, предоставляемых непрозрачностью и неразвитостью рынка, и
включение в коммерческий оборот части не используемого земельного фонда, предоставляет на
сегодняшний день наибольший потенциал для создания стоимости.
Ист.: анализ рабочей группы 22

23. Developing in Russia and other CIS markets – ARE THERE ENOUGH PROJECTS IN THE PIPELINE?
ARE THERE ENOUGH PROJECTS IN THE PIPELINE?
We think YES. THAT’S WHY:
DEEP RESTRUCTURING OF THE ECONOMY: FROM CENTRALIZED INDUSTRIAL / RAW MATERIALS TO MARKET
ECONOMY
ECOMONY IS STILL ON THE CONTINOUS (5TH
YEAR) RISING LINE THANKING TO HIGH RAW MATERIALS PRICES AND
POLITICAL STABILITY, additional factors: Olympics,
YOUNG MARKET – “REAL ESTATE” AS A DEFINITION APPEARED IN RUSSIA ONLY IN 1990-ies
FUNDAMENTAL DISTORTIONS IN REAL ESTATE PROGRESS DURING SOVIET ERA, TOPPED BY SHOCK
TURBULANCES OF TRANSITIONAL ECONOMY IN 1999-ies. SOVIET CULTURE OF CITY DEVELOPMENT DURING 1920-
90-ies WAS CONSERVATIVE, MISER, AND DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT FROM CAPITALIST WORLD PATTERN
DESPITE TO CERTAIN YIELD COMPRESSION, PREMIUMS TO INVESTORS ARE STILL ATTRACTIVE
REAL ESTATE MARKET IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE SYSTEMATIC AND BETTER ORGANIZED (ETHICS,
CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, CAPITAL & CAPITALIZATION, LEGISLATION, DEVELOPMENT, NON-QUALIFIED
PARTICIPANTS are graduallly squizzed from out of the market mostly due to the liquidity problems, TECHNOLOGY AND SKILLS,
QUALIFICATION OF LOCAL PERSONNEL AND MANAGEMENT?)
GOVERNMENT IS SMOOTHLY TAKING LARGER LEAD IN THE MARKET
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