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Fix What Matters: A Data Driven Approach to Vulnerability Management

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Michael Roytman
Michael Roytman

Data driven approach to vulnerability management in information security using live breach and vulnerability data.

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Fix What Matters Michael Roytman SIRAcon October 21, 2013
Why You Should(n’t) Listen Michael Roytman • Data Scientist, Risk I/O • MS Operations Research, Georgia Tech • Fraud Detection, Large Bank • Naive Grad Student Not Too Long Ago • Still Plays With Legos • Barely Passed Regression Analysis
Roadmap • The Struggle • What’s Bad? • What’s Good? • Framework • Data Driven Insights • Decision-Making
Starting From Scratch “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.” -Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, 1887
Starting From Scratch
Starting From Scratch Primary Sources! Twitter! InfoSec Blogs! Academia! •  GScholar! •  JSTOR! •  IEEE! •  ProQuest! •  CISOs CSIOs! •  Pen Testers! •  Threat Reports! •  SOTI/DBIR! ! Text •  Thought Leaders (you know who you are)! •  BlackHats! •  Vuln Researchers! •  MITRE! •  OSVDB! •  NIST CVSS Committee(s)! •  Internal Message Boards for ^!
Data Fundamentalism Don’t Ignore What a Vulnerability Is: Creation Bias ! (http://blog.risk.io/2013/04/data-fundamentalism/) ! Jerico/Sushidude @ BlackHat ! (https://www.blackhat.com/us-13/briefings.html#Martin)! Luca Allodi - CVSS DDOS ! (http://disi.unitn.it/~allodi/allodi-12-badgers.pdf):!
Data Fundamentalism - What’s The Big Deal? ! ”Since 2006 Vulnerabilities have declined by 26 percent.” ! (http://csrc.nist.gov/groups/SNS/rbac/documents/vulnerability-trends10.pdf)! ! ! “The total number of vulnerabilities in 2013 is up 16 percent so far when compared to what we saw in the same time period in 2012. ”! (http://www.symantec.com/content/en/us/enterprise/other_resources/b-intelligence_report_06-2013.en-us.pdf)! ! !
What’s Good? Bad For Vulnerability Statistics:! ! NVD, OSVDB, ExploitDB, CVSS, Patches, Microsoft Reports, etc, et al, and so on. ! Good For Vulnerability Statistics:! ! Vulnerabilities. !
Data Is Everything And Everything Is Data.
What’s Good?
What’s Good?
What’s Good?
What’s Good?
What’s Good?
What’s Good?
Counterterrorism Known Groups Past Incidents, Close Calls Targets, Layouts Threat Intel, Analysts Surveillance
What’s Good?
Uh, Sports? Opposing Teams, Specific Players Learning from Losing Roster, Player Skills Scouting Reports, Gametape Gameplay
InfoSec?
Defend Like You’ve Done It Before Groups, Motivations Learning from Breaches Asset Topology, Actual Vulns on System Vulnerability Definitions Exploits
Work With What You’ve Got: Akamai, Safenet NVD, MITRE ExploitDB, Metasploit
Add Some Spice
Show Me The Money 23,000,000 Vulnerabilities! Across 1,000,000 Assets! Representing 9,500 Companies! Using 22 Unique Scanners!
Whatchu Know About Dat?(a) ! Duplication Vulnerability Density Remediation
Duplication 2,250,000 2,025,000 1,800,000 1,575,000 1,350,000 1,125,000 900,000 675,000 450,000 225,000 0 2 or more scanners 3 or more 4 or more 5 or more 6 or more
Duplication We Have: F(Number of Scanners) => Number of Duplicate Vulnerabilities We Want: F(Number of Scanners) => Vulnerability Coverage <---------Good Luck! Make Decisions At The Margins! 100.0 75.0 50.0 25.0 0.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Density Hostname Type of Asset Hostname 1000 IP Address 200,000 File 10,000 Url IP 20,000 Netbios Netbios ~Count 5,000 File Url 0.0 22.5 45.0 67.5 90.0
CVSS And Remediation Metrics Average Time To Close By Severity Oldest Vulnerability By Severity 1400.0 1050.0 700.0 350.0 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
CVSS And Remediation - Lessons From A CISO Remediation/Lack Thereof, by CVSS 1 2 3 4 5 6 NVD Distribution by CVSS 7 8 9 10
The Kicker - Live Breach Data 1,500,000 ! Vulnerabilities Related to Live Breaches Recorded! June, July 2013 !
CVSS And Remediation - Nope Oldest Breached Vulnerability By Severity 7000.0 5250.0 3500.0 1750.0 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
CVSS - A VERY General Guide For Remediation - Yep Open Vulns With Breaches Occuring By Severity 160000.0 120000.0 80000.0 40000.0 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
The One Billion Dollar Question Probability(You Will Be Breached On A Particular Open Vulnerability)? =(Open Vulnerabilities | Breaches Occurred On Their CVE)/(Total Open Vulnerabilities) 1.98%
I Love It When You Call Me Big Data Probability A Vulnerability Having Property X Has Observed Breaches RANDOM VULN CVSS 10 CVSS 9 CVSS 8 CVSS 6 CVSS 7 CVSS 5 CVSS 4 Has Patch 0.00000 0.01000 0.02000 0.03000 0.04000
What’s the Alternative?
I Love It When You Call Me Big Data Probability A Vulnerability Having Property X Has Observed Breaches Random Vuln CVSS 10 Exploit DB Metasploit MSP+EDB 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
Data Is Everything And Everything Is Data.
Be Better Than The Gap
I Love It When You Call Me Big Data Spray and Pray => 2% ! CVSS 10 => 4% ! Metasploit + ExploitDB => 30% ! A Good Model That’s Not Built By One Kid Without Hadoop => ???!
Thank You Don’t Be A Stranger Blog: http://blog.risk.io Twitter: @mroytman

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