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The Suez Canal Relative Importance to
Egypt and to the World
August 2015
§  Why is the Suez Canal important to the Egyptian economy?
§  How has traffic through the Suez Canal been evolving since 1975?
§  How did the depth of the Canal evolve over time? And how does the current depth compare to
the Panama Canal?
§  How much is the Suez Canal reliant on international oil trade?
§  What are the top countries using the Suez Canal for trade (exports + imports)?
§  How would transit dynamics change after the opening of the parallel waterway (New Suez
Canal)?
§  Would the shorter transit time automatically translate into higher receipts?
Table of Contents
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2.0	
  
4.0	
  
6.0	
  
8.0	
  
10.0	
  
12.0	
  
14.0	
  
2009/10	
   2010/11	
   2011/12	
   2012/13	
   2013/14	
  
USD	
  bn	
  
Suez	
  Canal	
   Tourism	
   Foreign	
  Direct	
  Investments	
  
SC	
  receipts	
  exceeded	
  tourism	
  
receipts	
  in	
  2013/14	
  as	
  the	
  
tourism	
  sector	
  was	
  adversely	
  
affected	
  by	
  the	
  poor	
  security	
  
situaIon	
  post	
  June	
  2013	
  
SC	
  receipts	
  exceed	
  net	
  FDIs	
  in	
  
2010/11	
  as	
  the	
  laKer	
  declined	
  
sharply	
  post	
  Jan	
  2011	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
Development	
  of	
  Selected	
  Key	
  Foreign	
  Currency	
  Receipts	
  
(2009/10-­‐2013/14)	
  
Chart	
  1:	
  	
  Why is the Suez Canal
important to the
Egyptian economy?
Suez	
  Canal	
  receipts	
  represent	
  a	
  key	
  source	
  of	
  foreign	
  
currency	
  in	
  Egypt;	
  whereby	
  it	
  reached	
  USD	
  5.4	
  bn	
  in	
  FY	
  
2013/14.	
  The	
  relaIve	
  importance	
  of	
  the	
  Canal	
  increased	
  
as	
  other	
  key	
  foreign	
  currency	
  generaIng	
  acIviIes,	
  like	
  
FDIs	
  and	
  tourism,	
  faltered	
  post	
  2011	
  and	
  2013	
  
revoluIons	
  (See	
  Chart	
  1).	
  	
  
How has traffic through the Suez Canal been
evolving since 1975?
Average	
  daily	
  traffic,	
  in	
  terms	
  of	
  number	
  of	
  vessels	
  and	
  net	
  tonnage,	
  increased	
  steadily	
  between	
  2002	
  and	
  2008	
  associated	
  with	
  a	
  pickup	
  in	
  
global	
  economic	
  growth	
  and	
  world	
  trade.	
  The	
  global	
  economic	
  downturn,	
  however,	
  led	
  a	
  significant	
  decline	
  in	
  traffic	
  in	
  2009.	
  InteresIngly,	
  the	
  
average	
  daily	
  tonnage	
  increased	
  31%	
  between	
  2009	
  and	
  2014,	
  while	
  the	
  average	
  daily	
  number	
  of	
  vessels	
  decreased	
  marginally	
  by	
  0.4%	
  over	
  
the	
  same	
  period.	
  This	
  is	
  explained	
  by	
  a	
  significant	
  increase	
  in	
  the	
  average	
  tonnage	
  per	
  vessel	
  post	
  2009	
  as	
  exhibited	
  in	
  Chart	
  3	
  as	
  the	
  
internaIonal	
  shipping	
  industry	
  strives	
  to	
  minimize	
  marginal	
  cost	
  amid	
  a	
  slowdown	
  in	
  global	
  economic	
  acIvity	
  and	
  trade.	
  Hence,	
  the	
  depth	
  of	
  
the	
  Canal	
  is	
  much	
  more	
  important	
  than	
  the	
  width.	
  
SC's	
  Daily	
  Average	
  Traffic	
  (1975-­‐2014)	
  Chart	
  2:	
  	
  
0	
  
10	
  
20	
  
30	
  
40	
  
50	
  
60	
  
70	
  
0	
  
500	
  
1000	
  
1500	
  
2000	
  
2500	
  
3000	
  
1975	
  
1977	
  
1979	
  
1981	
  
1983	
  
1985	
  
1987	
  
1989	
  
1991	
  
1993	
  
1995	
  
1997	
  
1999	
  
2001	
  
2003	
  
2005	
  
2007	
  
2009	
  
2011	
  
2013	
  
Daily	
  Average	
  Net	
  Tonnage	
  (1000	
  ton)	
   Daily	
  Average	
  No.	
  of	
  Vessels	
  (right	
  scale)	
  
SC's	
  Daily	
  Average	
  Traffic	
  (1975-­‐2014)	
  Chart	
  3:	
  	
  
	
  -­‐	
  	
  	
  	
  
	
  10.00	
  	
  
	
  20.00	
  	
  
	
  30.00	
  	
  
	
  40.00	
  	
  
	
  50.00	
  	
  
	
  60.00	
  	
  
1975	
  
1977	
  
1979	
  
1981	
  
1983	
  
1985	
  
1987	
  
1989	
  
1991	
  
1993	
  
1995	
  
1997	
  
1999	
  
2001	
  
2003	
  
2005	
  
2007	
  
2009	
  
2011	
  
2013	
  
1000	
  ton	
  
Global	
  trade	
  is	
  becoming	
  more	
  
reliant	
  on	
  bigger	
  vessels	
  with	
  higher	
  
Dead	
  Weight	
  Tonnage	
  (DWT)	
  
A	
  leap	
  in	
  the	
  
average	
  tonnage	
  
per	
  vessel	
  post	
  the	
  
financial	
  crisis	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
How did the depth of the Canal evolve over time? And how does the
current depth compare to the Panama Canal?
The	
  depth	
  of	
  the	
  Suez	
  Canal	
  has	
  increased	
  over	
  the	
  years	
  to	
  currently	
  support	
  vessels	
  with	
  maximum	
  draa	
  length	
  of	
  66	
  a	
  which	
  exceeds	
  the	
  
maximum	
  draa	
  length	
  in	
  the	
  New	
  Panama	
  Canal,	
  expected	
  to	
  open	
  in	
  2016,	
  which	
  will	
  stand	
  at	
  49.9	
  a.	
  The	
  current	
  dimensions	
  of	
  the	
  Canal	
  
support	
  100%	
  of	
  fully-­‐loaded	
  container	
  fleet,	
  95.4%	
  of	
  fully-­‐loaded	
  bulk	
  fleet,	
  64.2%	
  of	
  fully-­‐loaded	
  tanker	
  fleet	
  and	
  100%	
  of	
  other	
  fleet	
  types.	
  
Some	
  bigger-­‐sized	
  unsupported	
  tankers	
  can	
  sIll	
  pass	
  through	
  Suez	
  Canal	
  not	
  fully-­‐laden	
  by	
  offloading	
  part	
  of	
  the	
  shipment	
  into	
  the	
  Suez-­‐
Mediterranean	
  (SUMED)	
  pipeline	
  and	
  reloading	
  it	
  at	
  the	
  end	
  of	
  the	
  Canal.	
  	
  
Suez	
  Canal	
  Maximum	
  DraQ	
  (Q)	
  Chart	
  4:	
  	
  
22	
  
35	
  
38	
  
53	
  
56	
   58	
  
62	
  
66	
  
0	
  
10	
  
20	
  
30	
  
40	
  
50	
  
60	
  
70	
  
1869	
   1956	
   1962	
   1981	
   1994	
   1996	
   2001	
   2012	
  
Source:	
  U.S.	
  Energy	
  InformaIon	
  AdministraIon	
  
How much is the Suez Canal reliant on international
oil trade?
In	
  2014,	
  oil	
  tankers	
  and	
  LNG	
  ships	
  represented	
  27.2%	
  of	
  total	
  vessels	
  transiIng	
  through	
  the	
  Suez	
  Canal	
  (see	
  Chart	
  5).	
  Crude	
  oil,	
  refined	
  oil	
  
products	
  and	
  LNG	
  represented	
  almost	
  25%	
  of	
  total	
  cargo	
  tonnage	
  carried	
  through	
  the	
  Suez	
  Canal	
  in	
  2014	
  (See	
  Chart	
  6).	
  	
  
Breakdown	
  of	
  Total	
  No.	
  of	
  Vessels	
  by	
  Ship	
  Type	
  
(2014)	
  
Chart	
  5:	
  	
  
Tankers	
  
23.6%	
  
L	
  N	
  G	
  
3.6%	
  
Bulk	
  
Carriers	
  
17.8%	
  
Combined	
  
Carriers	
  
0.0%	
  
General	
  Cargo	
  
7.3%	
  
Container	
  
Ships	
  
35.7%	
  
Ro/Ro	
  Ships	
  
1.3%	
  
Car	
  Carriers	
  
5.8%	
  
Passenger	
  
Ships	
  
0.4%	
  
Others	
  
4.3%	
  
Traffic	
  Breakdown	
  by	
  Cargo	
  Type	
  
(2014)	
  
Chart	
  6:	
  	
  
Crude	
  Oil	
  &	
  
Oil	
  Products	
  
22%	
   LNG	
  
3%	
  
Other	
  
75%	
  
What are the top countries using the Suez Canal for
trade (exports + imports)?
North	
  of	
  the	
  Canal,	
  Spain,	
  Italy,	
  Netherlands,	
  Egypt	
  and	
  U.K.	
  are	
  the	
  top	
  countries	
  that	
  used	
  the	
  Suez	
  Canal	
  in	
  2014.	
  While	
  in	
  the	
  South,	
  Saudi	
  
Arabia,	
  Singapore	
  and	
  Malaysia	
  were	
  the	
  top	
  users	
  of	
  the	
  Suez	
  Canal	
  in	
  2014.	
  	
  
Cargo	
  Tonnage	
  by	
  Country	
  in	
  2014	
  
(North	
  of	
  the	
  Canal)	
  
Chart	
  7:	
  	
  
Spain	
  
9%	
  
Italy	
  
9%	
  
Netherlands	
  
9%	
  
Egypt	
  
8%	
  
U.K.	
  
8%	
  
United	
  States	
  
7%	
  
Turkey	
  
6%	
  
Greece	
  
5%	
  
France	
  
5%	
  
Ukrania	
  
5%	
  
Other	
  
29%	
  
Cargo	
  Tonnage	
  by	
  Country	
  in	
  2014	
  
(South	
  of	
  the	
  Canal)	
  
Chart	
  8:	
  	
  
Saudi	
  Arabia	
  
21%	
  
Singapore	
  
18%	
  
Malaysia	
  
13%	
  
China	
  
6%	
  
India	
  
6%	
  
United	
  Arab	
  
Emirates	
  
6%	
  
Oman	
  
4%	
  
Srilanka	
  
3%	
  
Iraq	
  
3%	
  
Qatar	
  
3%	
  
Other	
  
17%	
  
How would transit dynamics
change after the opening of the
parallel waterway (New Suez
Canal)?
The	
  newly	
  dug	
  35	
  km	
  waterway	
  increases	
  the	
  double	
  parts	
  of	
  the	
  
Suez	
  Canal	
  to	
  115.5	
  Km,	
  represenIng	
  almost	
  60%	
  of	
  the	
  total	
  length	
  
of	
  the	
  Canal.	
  This	
  is	
  expected	
  to	
  cut	
  the	
  average	
  transit	
  Ime	
  from	
  
22	
  hours	
  to	
  11	
  hours.	
  
Would the shorter transit time
automatically translate into
higher receipts?
With	
  less	
  than	
  half	
  a	
  day	
  saving	
  in	
  transit	
  Ime,	
  projecIng	
  a	
  higher	
  
market	
  share	
  for	
  the	
  Suez	
  in	
  global	
  mariIme	
  transit	
  would	
  be	
  
premature,	
  especially	
  with	
  the	
  New	
  Panama	
  Canal	
  coming	
  on	
  
stream	
  next	
  year.	
  The	
  total	
  traffic	
  passing	
  through	
  the	
  Canal	
  will	
  
ulImately	
  depend	
  on	
  the	
  growth	
  in	
  the	
  volume	
  of	
  global	
  trade	
  
which	
  is	
  currently	
  subdued.	
  However,	
  the	
  Suez	
  Canal	
  Authority	
  
might	
  capitalize	
  on	
  the	
  transit	
  Ime	
  savings	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  increase	
  
transit	
  fares,	
  but	
  such	
  increase	
  would	
  sIll	
  be	
  limited.	
  The	
  
development	
  of	
  the	
  Suez	
  Canal	
  area	
  into	
  a	
  logisIcs,	
  industrial	
  and	
  
re-­‐export	
  hub	
  provides	
  much	
  bigger	
  opportuniIes	
  to	
  the	
  EgypIan	
  
economy	
  leveraging	
  on	
  the	
  strategic	
  locaIon	
  of	
  the	
  Suez	
  Canal	
  at	
  
the	
  crossroads	
  of	
  internaIonal	
  trade	
  routes.	
  A	
  master	
  plan	
  for	
  the	
  
project	
  was	
  presented	
  during	
  the	
  Egypt	
  Economic	
  Development	
  
Conference	
  (EEDC)	
  held	
  in	
  March	
  2015,	
  and	
  key	
  legislaIve	
  
amendments	
  had	
  been	
  made	
  to	
  allow	
  for	
  the	
  establishment	
  of	
  
the	
  Suez	
  Canal	
  Special	
  Economic	
  Zone	
  and	
  grant	
  the	
  Suez	
  Canal	
  
Authority	
  the	
  power	
  to	
  establish	
  companies.	
  
Sources:	
  Suez	
  Canal	
  Authority,	
  Central	
  Bank	
  of	
  Egypt,	
  BIMCO,	
  U.S.	
  Energy	
  InformaIon	
  AdministraIon	
  
“Advice	
  	
  
	
  is	
  judged	
  by	
  results	
  
	
  not	
  intenons”	
  	
  
Address:	
  166	
  Al-­‐Shouyfat	
  St.,	
  Bouri	
  Sq.,	
  New	
  Cairo
Email:	
  info@dcodeefc.com
Website:	
  www.dcodeefc.com

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Suez canal

  • 1. The Suez Canal Relative Importance to Egypt and to the World August 2015
  • 2. §  Why is the Suez Canal important to the Egyptian economy? §  How has traffic through the Suez Canal been evolving since 1975? §  How did the depth of the Canal evolve over time? And how does the current depth compare to the Panama Canal? §  How much is the Suez Canal reliant on international oil trade? §  What are the top countries using the Suez Canal for trade (exports + imports)? §  How would transit dynamics change after the opening of the parallel waterway (New Suez Canal)? §  Would the shorter transit time automatically translate into higher receipts? Table of Contents
  • 3. 0.0   2.0   4.0   6.0   8.0   10.0   12.0   14.0   2009/10   2010/11   2011/12   2012/13   2013/14   USD  bn   Suez  Canal   Tourism   Foreign  Direct  Investments   SC  receipts  exceeded  tourism   receipts  in  2013/14  as  the   tourism  sector  was  adversely   affected  by  the  poor  security   situaIon  post  June  2013   SC  receipts  exceed  net  FDIs  in   2010/11  as  the  laKer  declined   sharply  post  Jan  2011                       Development  of  Selected  Key  Foreign  Currency  Receipts   (2009/10-­‐2013/14)   Chart  1:    Why is the Suez Canal important to the Egyptian economy? Suez  Canal  receipts  represent  a  key  source  of  foreign   currency  in  Egypt;  whereby  it  reached  USD  5.4  bn  in  FY   2013/14.  The  relaIve  importance  of  the  Canal  increased   as  other  key  foreign  currency  generaIng  acIviIes,  like   FDIs  and  tourism,  faltered  post  2011  and  2013   revoluIons  (See  Chart  1).    
  • 4. How has traffic through the Suez Canal been evolving since 1975? Average  daily  traffic,  in  terms  of  number  of  vessels  and  net  tonnage,  increased  steadily  between  2002  and  2008  associated  with  a  pickup  in   global  economic  growth  and  world  trade.  The  global  economic  downturn,  however,  led  a  significant  decline  in  traffic  in  2009.  InteresIngly,  the   average  daily  tonnage  increased  31%  between  2009  and  2014,  while  the  average  daily  number  of  vessels  decreased  marginally  by  0.4%  over   the  same  period.  This  is  explained  by  a  significant  increase  in  the  average  tonnage  per  vessel  post  2009  as  exhibited  in  Chart  3  as  the   internaIonal  shipping  industry  strives  to  minimize  marginal  cost  amid  a  slowdown  in  global  economic  acIvity  and  trade.  Hence,  the  depth  of   the  Canal  is  much  more  important  than  the  width.   SC's  Daily  Average  Traffic  (1975-­‐2014)  Chart  2:     0   10   20   30   40   50   60   70   0   500   1000   1500   2000   2500   3000   1975   1977   1979   1981   1983   1985   1987   1989   1991   1993   1995   1997   1999   2001   2003   2005   2007   2009   2011   2013   Daily  Average  Net  Tonnage  (1000  ton)   Daily  Average  No.  of  Vessels  (right  scale)   SC's  Daily  Average  Traffic  (1975-­‐2014)  Chart  3:      -­‐          10.00      20.00      30.00      40.00      50.00      60.00     1975   1977   1979   1981   1983   1985   1987   1989   1991   1993   1995   1997   1999   2001   2003   2005   2007   2009   2011   2013   1000  ton   Global  trade  is  becoming  more   reliant  on  bigger  vessels  with  higher   Dead  Weight  Tonnage  (DWT)   A  leap  in  the   average  tonnage   per  vessel  post  the   financial  crisis            
  • 5. How did the depth of the Canal evolve over time? And how does the current depth compare to the Panama Canal? The  depth  of  the  Suez  Canal  has  increased  over  the  years  to  currently  support  vessels  with  maximum  draa  length  of  66  a  which  exceeds  the   maximum  draa  length  in  the  New  Panama  Canal,  expected  to  open  in  2016,  which  will  stand  at  49.9  a.  The  current  dimensions  of  the  Canal   support  100%  of  fully-­‐loaded  container  fleet,  95.4%  of  fully-­‐loaded  bulk  fleet,  64.2%  of  fully-­‐loaded  tanker  fleet  and  100%  of  other  fleet  types.   Some  bigger-­‐sized  unsupported  tankers  can  sIll  pass  through  Suez  Canal  not  fully-­‐laden  by  offloading  part  of  the  shipment  into  the  Suez-­‐ Mediterranean  (SUMED)  pipeline  and  reloading  it  at  the  end  of  the  Canal.     Suez  Canal  Maximum  DraQ  (Q)  Chart  4:     22   35   38   53   56   58   62   66   0   10   20   30   40   50   60   70   1869   1956   1962   1981   1994   1996   2001   2012   Source:  U.S.  Energy  InformaIon  AdministraIon  
  • 6. How much is the Suez Canal reliant on international oil trade? In  2014,  oil  tankers  and  LNG  ships  represented  27.2%  of  total  vessels  transiIng  through  the  Suez  Canal  (see  Chart  5).  Crude  oil,  refined  oil   products  and  LNG  represented  almost  25%  of  total  cargo  tonnage  carried  through  the  Suez  Canal  in  2014  (See  Chart  6).     Breakdown  of  Total  No.  of  Vessels  by  Ship  Type   (2014)   Chart  5:     Tankers   23.6%   L  N  G   3.6%   Bulk   Carriers   17.8%   Combined   Carriers   0.0%   General  Cargo   7.3%   Container   Ships   35.7%   Ro/Ro  Ships   1.3%   Car  Carriers   5.8%   Passenger   Ships   0.4%   Others   4.3%   Traffic  Breakdown  by  Cargo  Type   (2014)   Chart  6:     Crude  Oil  &   Oil  Products   22%   LNG   3%   Other   75%  
  • 7. What are the top countries using the Suez Canal for trade (exports + imports)? North  of  the  Canal,  Spain,  Italy,  Netherlands,  Egypt  and  U.K.  are  the  top  countries  that  used  the  Suez  Canal  in  2014.  While  in  the  South,  Saudi   Arabia,  Singapore  and  Malaysia  were  the  top  users  of  the  Suez  Canal  in  2014.     Cargo  Tonnage  by  Country  in  2014   (North  of  the  Canal)   Chart  7:     Spain   9%   Italy   9%   Netherlands   9%   Egypt   8%   U.K.   8%   United  States   7%   Turkey   6%   Greece   5%   France   5%   Ukrania   5%   Other   29%   Cargo  Tonnage  by  Country  in  2014   (South  of  the  Canal)   Chart  8:     Saudi  Arabia   21%   Singapore   18%   Malaysia   13%   China   6%   India   6%   United  Arab   Emirates   6%   Oman   4%   Srilanka   3%   Iraq   3%   Qatar   3%   Other   17%  
  • 8. How would transit dynamics change after the opening of the parallel waterway (New Suez Canal)? The  newly  dug  35  km  waterway  increases  the  double  parts  of  the   Suez  Canal  to  115.5  Km,  represenIng  almost  60%  of  the  total  length   of  the  Canal.  This  is  expected  to  cut  the  average  transit  Ime  from   22  hours  to  11  hours.   Would the shorter transit time automatically translate into higher receipts? With  less  than  half  a  day  saving  in  transit  Ime,  projecIng  a  higher   market  share  for  the  Suez  in  global  mariIme  transit  would  be   premature,  especially  with  the  New  Panama  Canal  coming  on   stream  next  year.  The  total  traffic  passing  through  the  Canal  will   ulImately  depend  on  the  growth  in  the  volume  of  global  trade   which  is  currently  subdued.  However,  the  Suez  Canal  Authority   might  capitalize  on  the  transit  Ime  savings  in  order  to  increase   transit  fares,  but  such  increase  would  sIll  be  limited.  The   development  of  the  Suez  Canal  area  into  a  logisIcs,  industrial  and   re-­‐export  hub  provides  much  bigger  opportuniIes  to  the  EgypIan   economy  leveraging  on  the  strategic  locaIon  of  the  Suez  Canal  at   the  crossroads  of  internaIonal  trade  routes.  A  master  plan  for  the   project  was  presented  during  the  Egypt  Economic  Development   Conference  (EEDC)  held  in  March  2015,  and  key  legislaIve   amendments  had  been  made  to  allow  for  the  establishment  of   the  Suez  Canal  Special  Economic  Zone  and  grant  the  Suez  Canal   Authority  the  power  to  establish  companies.   Sources:  Suez  Canal  Authority,  Central  Bank  of  Egypt,  BIMCO,  U.S.  Energy  InformaIon  AdministraIon  
  • 9. “Advice      is  judged  by  results    not  intenons”     Address:  166  Al-­‐Shouyfat  St.,  Bouri  Sq.,  New  Cairo Email:  info@dcodeefc.com Website:  www.dcodeefc.com