As TV ratings decline and media costs escalate, we increasingly need state of the art tools to make the most informed investment decisions. To this end, Mullen’s Mediahub has developed FORESIGHT, a tool that leverages digital chatter to handicap the potential success or failure of new television shows. Mullen will issue three in-depth reports over the course of the year, though here is an initial peak under the hood for the upcoming season. We hope you will find this Early Read report, both fun and informative, and look forward to sharing the rest of If you have questions or comments, please can contact ray.trosan@mullen.com

1. REPORT I
2010 Fall TV Momentum
June 2010

2. As television ratings continue to decrease, and their costs continue to escalate, it is more important than ever
to deploy your brand dollars with more data and precision.
As a result, we have developed FORESIGHT, a sophisticated tool that aggregates and assesses digital chatter
surrounding new television programs. The volume and sentiment behind the discussion will provide us with an
early window of how well shows will fare before their formal launch, predicting their chance of success or
failure. FORESIGHT is a comprehensive report utilizing Internet debates, forums, discussion boards, blogs,
Twitter, Facebook, Digg, and news groups.
This tool will not only provide a guide as to what shows to back, but will provide insights for more innovative
brand associations by identifying the most popular, or significant, characters, sections and moods within a
program.
FORESIGHT Reports for the new television season will be released in three intervals:
REPORT I: POST UPFRONT MOMENTUM REPORT
Timing: June
Content: Early Read, after May program announcements
REPORT II: FALL SEASON REPORT
Timing: August/Early September
Content: Identify breakouts and failures
REPORT III: MID SEASON REPLACEMENT REPORT
Timing: November/December
Content: Early read on January/Mid-Season replacements
2

3. Report timing is based on the volume of digital discussion. Overall, in the early part of this period, there tends
to be fewer people generating messages as show pilots are still accessible only to a select few. This chatter
then declines in subsequent months following the new show announcements. As the season begins to ramp up
in late summer and with more multi-media promotional support, we will see an increase in volume of
messages as expectations and excitement rise, and as a result, we can predict the success and failure more
accurately.
Three key peaks for online chatter drive report timing:
4000
REPORT II
3500
3000
REPORT III
2500 NEW FALL
SHOWS
2000 ANNOUNCED
1500
1000 REPORT I
500
0
May June July August September October November December
2009 Digital Chatter 2010 Digital Chatter
3

4. INITIAL FINDINGS % New Show Mentions
Since the network schedules were announced in May, NBC is
substantially ahead in terms of overall buzz. After the collapse of
FOX
the Leno experiment, NBC has invested millions in programming CBS 10%
this year, and its efforts have clearly paid off. FOX has the least NBC
14%
42%
buzz, not surprising given its meager introduction of three new fall
CW
shows, and limited experimentation with its existing schedule.
17% ABC
What is especially impressive is the buzz generated by The CW 17%
with just two new shows which are clearly resonating with their
core target of young females.
Period: 5/16/10-6/13/10
4

5. most
DISCUSSED NEW SHOWS
least
DISCUSSED NEW SHOWS
NETWORK PROGRAM % BUZZ NETWORK PROGRAM % BUZZ
NBC The Event 10.8% ABC My Generation 2.7%
CW Hellcats 8.4% ABC The Whole Truth 2.7%
CW Nikita 8.3% ABC Body of Proof 2.3%
NBC Chase 8.0% CBS The Defenders 2.3%
NBC Undercovers 5.9% CBS $#*! My Dad Says 2.2%
CBS Hawaii 5-0 5.3% NBC School Pride 2.2%
NBC Outsourced 5.1% ABC Secret Millionaire 1.4%
NBC Love Bites 4.9% CBS Mike & Molly 1.2%
ABC No Ordinary Family 4.7% NBC Law & Order: LA 0.7%
NBC Outlaw 4.4% ABC Detroit 1-8-7 0.6%
5

6. BUZZ
NBC has six shows within the Top Ten Most Discussed. The network’s adventure themed fall programming
including The Event, Chase, and Undercovers, garnered numerous mentions, and its inventive scheduling of
vertical genres each night: Action-Adventure on Mondays, Reality (Biggest Loser) Tuesdays, Procedural Drama
Wednesdays and Sitcom Thursdays, is clearly generating consumer enthusiasm.
No Ordinary Family Similarly, The CW’s Hellcats and Nikita, which represent the second and third
most discussed shows, bode well for The CW this fall. CBS’s Hawaii 5-0 and
ABC’s No Ordinary Family also generated much discussion. Hawaii 5-0 buzz is
to be expected as it represents a revival of an old series that still has a lot of
nostalgia and affinity.
The biggest surprise on the least discussed list is CBS’s Twitter-originated
show, $#*! My Dad Says. One would imagine that, given the writer’s (Justin
Halpern) following online, and the inclusion of William Shatner, that it would
have greater momentum. Law & Order: Los Angeles being close to the bottom
of the list is not surprising; the Dick Wolf decade-long franchise already has
multiple iterations, and has probably run its course.
6

7. most most
POSITIVE SENTIMENT NEGATIVE SENTIMENT
NETWORK PROGRAM % BUZZ SENTIMENT NETWORK PROGRAM % BUZZ SENTIMENT
POSITIVE NEGATIVE POSITIVE NEGATIVE
NBC Love Bites 4.9% 78% 22% ABC Detroit 1-8-7 0.6% 0% 100%
CW Nikita 8.3% 74% 26% CBS $#*! My Dad Says 2.2% 16% 84%
CW Hellcats 8.4% 69% 31% ABC Better Together 2.9% 25% 75%
NBC Outlaw 4.4% 66% 34% FOX Lonestar 3.5% 28% 72%
ABC Body of Proof 2.3% 63% 37% FOX Running Wilde 3.2% 31% 69%
ABC Secret Millionaire 1.4% 62% 38% CBS Blue Bloods 3.5% 35% 65%
ABC No Ordinary Family 4.7% 61% 39% CBS The Defenders 2.3% 36% 64%
NBC Undercovers 5.9% 60% 40% NBC Outsourced 5.1% 38% 62%
NBC The Event 10.8% 59% 41% FOX Raising Hope 2.8% 45% 55%
NBC Chase 8.0% 57% 43% CBS Mike & Molly 1.2% 50% 50%
SENTIMENT
To gauge the most accurate read on success, we believe the key dynamic is not just buzz,
but also sentiment. For example, NBC’s Love Bites may not generate the most digital
conversations, but combining the show’s positive sentiment with its buzz, it looks likely
that the show will be well-received. The two CW new shows, Nikita and Hellcats, perform
well on both counts, high buzz factor and positive sentiment, and can thus be
prognosticated to perform well this fall. NBC’s The Event, has the highest buzz, but
somewhat mixed sentiment; yet with strong summer promotion, sentiment can be swung
more in its favor to make it a Monday night contender for NBC.
One show notable for its negative number is ABC’s Detroit 1-8-7 with 100% negative
sentiment! One commentator even compared it to “an immature version of Homicide.”
7

8. RECAP
The early read shows a couple of key data points:
 NBC is showing some early momentum and, as previously stated, their investment
in premium programming seems to be paying off, based on initial buzz – and the
network is in dire need of some good news
 The CW only has two new shows, but seems to have a lot of traction; limited new
programming also allows them to put all their promotional dollars behind them
 FOX seems to be in real trouble having no buzz on new programming and two of
their powerhouses American Idol and House are becoming long in the tooth
 The jury is still out on CBS and ABC
Please note that the above report is an indication of interest and not a fail safe prediction of the long-term success. Other factors, like how much
promotional support each network places behind each show; in what time period it is allotted; the shows it is up against; lead-ins and lead-outs play
key roles.
8