- The document discusses trends in the US housing market from 2008-2010, including the impact of homebuyer tax credits and higher loan limits that boosted home sales. - It notes a bifurcated recovery with lower-priced homes rebounding faster than high-end homes. Pending home sales have increased but are taking longer to close. - The number of potential first-time buyers grew between 2000 and 2009, though many renters remain unqualified for a mortgage. The tax credit further increased the pool of potential first-time buyers. - National home prices, while still declining, are expected to rise 2-4% in 2010 as the overcorrection in prices is halted and inventory levels stabilize.

1. Real Estate Market Trends & Outlook Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ® Presentation at Vanderbilt University March 17, 2010

3. Recent Pending Home Sales Recovery pre-dominantly in lower-end and taking longer to close in recent months Source: NAR

4. Bifurcated Recovery $ thousand Homes priced under $100K Homes priced above $500K % change from one year ago Source: NAR

5. Aggregate Months Supply Source: NAR In thousand units

6. National Existing Home Sales Pre-boom sales Source: NAR

7. Vacation Home Sales Nationwide Thousand units Source: NAR

9. First-Time Buyers Used Up or Pent-Up Demand ? 2000 (pre-boom) 2009 (3 months prior to tax credit) 2009 (recent 3 months with tax credit) Existing Home Sales 5.2 m 4.6 m 5.3 m New Home Sales 880 K 364 K 418 K Payroll Jobs 131.8 m 135.0 m 131.4 m Household Jobs 136.9 m 143.2 m 140.0 m Median Home Price $143,600 $173,600 $177,900 Mortgage Rates 8.1% 5.5% 5.2% Underwriting Standard + FHA % Normal (not loose) FHA about 10% About Normal FHA 24% About Normal FHA 15% to 20% with higher credit score Household Income $41,990 $50,303 $50,303 # renters that could buy a median priced home (assume no tax credit) 11.5 million 16.2 million 16.1 million Change in Pool of Potential 1 st Time Buyers (without tax credit) N/A 4.7 million 4.6 million Change in Pool of Potential 1 st Time Buyers (with tax credit) N/A/ 4.7 million 5.4 million Fear Factor Impact (Waiting to buy later at a lower price) N/A Hard to Measure Hard to Measure

10. Household Formation (2-year moving average)

12. Financial Wealth Rising $ billion Source: Federal Reserve Source: Federal Reserve, NAR estimate

13. Housing Wealth to Rise ($4 trillion wealth loss in housing from peak) If additional $8,000 price decline … $700 billion further loss $ billion Source: Federal Reserve Source: Federal Reserve, NAR estimate

14. Metro Median Home Price $ thousand Riverside Source: NAR Indianapolis

15. National Existing Home Price

16. Overcorrection Needs to be Halted (Home Price to Income Ratio) Stay within Budget and all will be OK ! Source: NAR

17. Mortgage Payment to Income (by middle income person buying a median priced home) Stay within Budget and all will be OK ! Source: NAR

18. Latest Home Price Trend % change from one year ago NAR in blue FHFA in Red Case-Shiller in Green

19. Housing Starts: Too Much to Too Little New Units Needed 3 million more people each year … 1 to 1.4 million household formation … need to account for 300,000 demolitions …. need 1.3 to 1.7 new units

21. Economy Recovering GDP annualized growth rate Source: BEA Forecast

22. Total Payroll Jobs in U.S. Source: BLS In thousands Job Changes in U.S. (Monthly Payroll Job Change)

23. Total Payroll Jobs in U.S. Source: BLS In thousands Temp Hire Job Changes in U.S. (monthly payroll job change)

24. Source: BLS In thousands Total Payroll Jobs in Michigan

25. Source: BLS; (12-month moving average) In thousands Total Payroll Jobs in Washington D.C. Metro

26. Federal Budget Deficit Source: Congressional Budget Office Projections Source: CBO, NAR estimate

28. Economic Outlook Unemployment Rate Peak at 10.5% in few months before going down consistently 2008 2009 2010 forecast GDP 0.4% -2.5% 2.8% CPI Inflation 3.8% -0.2% 1.8% Unemployment Rate 5.8% 9.3% 10.0% 10-year Treasury 3.7% 3.3% 3.8%

29. Housing Outlook 2008 2009 2010 forecast Existing Home Sales 4.9 m 5.2 m 5.7 m New Home Sales 485 k 375 k 446 k Home Price Growth -10% -13% 2% to 4% Mortgage Rate 6.1% 5.1% 5.5% Price Fear Factor ? ? None

30. Commercial and Residential Property Prices Index = 100 in 1990 Case-Shiller Residential MIT Commercial 2009 data is for Q2

31. Who Is Buying?

32. Credit Crisis 2008: Libor vs. Fed Funds Rate Subprime acting up Bear Stearns Lehman Brothers belly up

34. Office Market Fundamentals

35. Office Rent Growth