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JCL in a Nutshell Demystifying the Analysis 2011 NASA PM Challenge Long Beach, CA Eric Druker This document is confidential and is intended solely for the use and information of the client to whom it is addressed. Used with permission

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[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Outline

What is Joint Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis? 1 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What is Joint Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Cost Probability 70% Joint Confidence Level Schedule

What is Joint Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What Goes In To a Build-Up Joint Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Example JCL Model Cost Uncertainty Risks Schedule Duration Uncertainty Iteration of Monte Carlo Simulation Baseline Schedule

The JCL Paradoxes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

A Typical Cost Risk Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Merge Bias: A Simple Example ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Merge Bias: A Satellite Development Program Example ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Monte Carlo Iterations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*Red line denotes baseline schedule This slide needs to be viewed in slide show mode; otherwise see backup for iterations Iteration Duration Cost 1 131 days $441,240 2 149 days $342,832 3 116 days $355,368 4 112 days $300,560 5 151 days $413,392 6 127 days $439,088 7 159 days $468,152 8 168 days $395,536 9 127 days $395,712 10 157 days $436,688 Average 141 days $402,597

Results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The Merge Bias and Order Statistics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Complex Schedule Networks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Factors Influencing Schedule Risk Mix of Parallel/Serial Tasks Types of Task Constraints (Start no Earlier Than, Must Start On, etc.) Resource Availabilities Types of Task Relationships (Start to Start, Start to Finish, Finish to Finish, etc) Cross-links/dependencies Schedule Margin, Schedule Slack, Schedule Reserves

Correlation (cite CEBoK) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Driver 1 Travel Time Driver 2 Travel Time No Correlation Driver 1 Travel Time Driver 2 Travel Time Some Correlation Driver 1 Travel Time Driver 2 Travel Time Perfect Correlation

Correlation: A Simple Example ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],R 2 = 0 R 2 = 0.25 R 2 = 1 Green box denotes both parties arriving on time for dinner Assumptions 5000 Monte Carlo Runs. Commute times distributed as N(30 minutes, 9 minutes) ρ of 1 = Parties Take Same Car

Today’s Schedule Risk Analysis Standards ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],No Cost or Schedule Risk Analysis is Valid If It Has Not Addressed Correlation

Effects of Correlation on Satellite Example ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],5 Parallel Tasks ~ N(100, 30) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Graph Explanation

Effects of Correlation (Generalized) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Correlation Recommendations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*It is extraordinarily rare for tasks on the same project to be completely uncorrelated ( ρ = 0). Similarly, if two tasks are perfectly correlated ( ρ = 1) they should be functionally linked Correlation (including example basis for selection)* ρ Pic Weak (different personnel working different component) 0.25 Medium (same personnel working different component or different personnel working same component) 0.50 Strong (same personnel working on the same component) 0.75

Conclusion & Recommendations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Works Cited ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],Filename/RPS Number

Monte Carlo Iterations (separated) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Iteration Duration Cost 1 131 days $441,240 2 149 days $342,832 3 116 days $355,368 4 112 days $300,560 5 151 days $413,392 6 127 days $439,088 7 159 days $468,152 8 168 days $395,536 9 127 days $395,712 10 157 days $436,688 Average 141 days $402,597

Monte Carlo Iterations (separated) Iteration Duration Cost 1 131 days $441,240 2 149 days $342,832 3 116 days $355,368 4 112 days $300,560 5 151 days $413,392 6 127 days $439,088 7 159 days $468,152 8 168 days $395,536 9 127 days $395,712 10 157 days $436,688 Average 141 days $402,597

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