1. Human Exploration Framework
Team (HEFT) Overview
Daniel L. Dumbacher, Director, Engineering Directorate
Marshall Space Flight Center
John Olson, Ph.D., Director, Directorate Integration Office
Exploration Systems Mission Directorate, NASA Headquarters
Stephen Jurczyk, Deputy Center Director
NASA Langley Research Center
NASA Project Management Challenge
February 2011
2. Agenda
• HEFT Overview
• Benefit Figures of Merit
• Constraint Figures of Merit
• Key Outcomes
• General Findings
• Human Space Flight Cost and Schedule History
• HEFT I Integrated Cost Assessment Comparison
• What Needs to Be Addressed to Be Affordable
• History of Lean Developments
• Lean Cost and Schedule Implementation Approaches
• Summary
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3. HEFT Overview
• HEFT Strategy: Create a decision framework for human space
exploration that drives out the knowledge, capabilities, and infrastructure
NASA needs to send people to explore multiple destinations in the Solar
System in an efficient, sustainable way
• HEFT Goal: Generate a process that evolves into a long term, permanent
NASA activity to support human space flight (HSF) strategic planning
– Initially focused on standing up the organization, getting it functioning, and conducting
a full iteration of the process
– Outcome of the process was recommendations for human space flight capabilities and
missions for 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year horizons, with Mars as the ultimate destination
• HEFT Impact: Informed the FY2012 Program Planning, Budget,
and Execution process
– Identified requirements for technologies and advanced systems capabilities based
on investment strategies and design reference architectures for human missions to
destinations beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO)
– Met Executive Branch guidance, critical Stakeholder objectives, and HSF objectives
and constraints
– Is sustainable and affordable (fits within projected NASA HSF budget)
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4. Benefit Figures of Merit
Extend Human Presence Enhance Economic Impacts
Broaden to include multiple destinations Enhance the robustness and expand
with initial focus on crewed missions to competitiveness of the U.S. space industry.
Near Earth Objects (NEOs).
Increase Public Engagement
Develop Future Capabilities Seek early and frequent opportunities
for Mars for human exploration beyond Earth that
Demonstrate technologies and advanced build up in capability over time for a steady
systems for human Mars orbital and surface pace of new missions and new destinations.
missions.
Leverage Domestic Partnerships
Improve Scientific Knowledge Build alliances between NASA and other
Conduct activities that address research Government agencies, focusing on creating
important to the science community. capabilities collaboratively or in a
complementary way to reduce
Expand Global Partnerships costs, increase utility, or further U.S.
Strengthen international collaboration scientific, diplomatic, security, or economic
by providing opportunities for participation in interests.
technology development and
demonstration, systems development, and
operations.
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Characterizing Desirable Alternatives 4
5. Constraint Figures of Merit
Affordability Programmatic Sustainability
Develop exploration options that can Develop an HSF strategy that ensures
be implemented within the bounds of U.S. access to LEO and maintains a balance
projected future budgets. between technology and system
development activities, with flexible
Operational Complexity architectures.
Evaluate exploration options based on
the number of unique systems, number HSF Capability Sustainment
of launches, number of in-space Maintain core HSF capabilities required
operations, etc. to develop technologies and advanced
systems, and integrate, test, operate, and
Programmatic Risk sustain systems for human exploration
Technology and advanced systems beyond LEO.
development must have adequate
budget and schedule margins.
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Describing Top-level Guidelines 5
6. Key Outcomes
• The process of analyzing 9 investment portfolios was effective in
exploring a broad technical and programmatic trade space
– Evaluated them against Executive Branch Guidance, Critical Stakeholder
Interests, and Benefit and Constraint Figures of Merit
• Derived key insights from a large, complex dataset and
identified options for:
– Enabling and Enhancing Technology Development and Demonstration
activities
– Advanced Systems Developments including Crewed Spacecraft
and Launch Vehicle
– Changing the way NASA does business and opportunities for
partnerships with other U.S. government agencies and international partners
• Further work is required to refine the Design Reference Missions
and cost and schedule estimates
– This can eventually lead to a NASA integrated architecture for human
exploration beyond LEO
Charting a Balanced Path Forward
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7. General Findings
• Affording human exploration within expected budgets is a challenge
• NASA human space flight is a demanding and risky enterprise
requiring sustained resources
• Safety is the cornerstone of viable options
• Commercial crew helps test our assumptions (like NetFlix did to
Blockbuster)
• With ~$40B available over 10 years, significant progress can be made
• “Lean” developments are essential to extending and sustaining human
presence beyond LEO
• Transitioning approaches used on relatively small projects to large
(higher dollar value) programs/projects can have big payoffs
Changing the Agency’s Business Model
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8. Human Space Flight Cost and Schedule History
Cost Growth Schedule Growth
• Average: 219% or 3.19 times • Average: 103% or 2.03 times
the original estimate the original estimate
• Median: 207% • Median: 108%
growth
NASA Human-Rated Systems
Improving Results by Doing Things Differently
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10. What Needs to Be Addressed to Be Affordable
Program/Project Risk Averse Requirements/ Personnel/
Management Culture Trades Staffing
Clear
Planning for Vision vs. Cost as an Independent Program / Project
Requirements/Rationale at
Near-term Execution Variable in Design Trades Leadership
the Right Level
Clear & Simple Lines Understanding Implications Cost as Independent Variable Right People for
of Accountability of Safety in Design Trades the Role
Business/Contractual
Early Issue Identification Multiple Reviews Long-term Skill
Relationships & Methods
& Resolution & Approvals Maintenance/Development
& Incentives
Technical Oversight Delegation Industry vs. Government Use of In-House Capability
& Insight of Authority Standards to Support Programs
Use of Modern Certificate of Flight Cost Requirements
Technology Readiness Process & Estimating
Smaller Projects / Periodic
Achievable Milestones
Fitting Squarely in the Budget Box is an Overarching Requirement
11. History of Lean Developments
Saturn/Apollo Block Approach DC-X, DC-XA
Successful building-block path to the Moon Design and development in 4 years,
DC-XA modifications and flight in 2 years
STS External Tank Block Upgrades
New tank design delivered in 4 years X-34
Ready to fly in 5 years
Mars Exploration Rovers
3+ years to flight MLAS
21 months to flight
Deep Space-1
3+ years to flight Ares I-X
18 months to flight
LRO/LCROSS
3.5 years to flight Fastsat
18 months to flight
X-37, X-37B
Only reusable Space Vehicle since Orbiter Project M
Ready to fly in 1 year
X-38
Successful drop tests in 3-4 years
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Learning Lessons from Experience 11
12. Lean Cost and Schedule Implementation Approaches
• Evolutionary Block Progression
– Applies to a variety of projects, allowing a stepped approach to
requirements maturation, incremental capability, technology
infusion, development, and implementation
• Parallel Government/Industry Development
– Allows rapid start by Government, while maturing requirements and
competitive acquisition strategy
• Flying Class C/D, or “First Build”, and Sticking to the Designation
– Applies to key technology demonstration missions and allows for rapidly
advancing a selection or suite of technologies — proto-flight hardware
• Learning Curves
– Applies to multiple unit production and also can drive infrastructure
requirements early in the process via pathfinders
• Skunkworks Approach
– Estimated schedule decreased by more than 20%
• For large systems, long-lead items dominate schedule
Finding Efficiencies that Maximize Budget
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& Reduce Time to Market 12
13. Summary
• NASA and the Nation will be in a constrained budget environment
for the foreseeable future
• NASA’s program management and technical community must find
ways to meet objectives with more efficient use of resources
• The future of human exploration is in the balance
Living Within Our Means While Delivering Excellence
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