1. Exploring the Health Effects of
Climate Change
Eddie Oldfield
Director, NB Climate Change Hub
www.nbhub.org
Hosted by the New Brunswick Lung Association
Thanks to NB Environmental Trust Fund

2. Temperature in recent years

3. Concentration of CO2 and Temperature Change
Concentration of CO2 anticipated
for the year 2100: around20 years…
In 675 ppm Today
Increase in average
temperature anticipated
for the year 2100:
Concentration of CO2 between 1,4 et 5,8 C
for the year 1998: 365 ppm
Source of Picture:
www.whitehouse.gov/
Initiatives/Climate/next100
.html

4. Greenhouse gases warm the planet
Aerosols/particles can warm or cool
Sulphate, nitrate
and organic carbon
aerosols scatter
energy back to
space leading to
cooling.
Soot (black carbon)
aerosols absorb
energy and radiate
it into the
atmosphere.
Aerosol-cloud interactions are the greatest uncertainty.

5. Climate change and air quality are linked
 They both are caused in part by burning fossil fuels
 Increasing temperatures can increase air pollution
 Greenhouse gases warm the planet. Some particles in the
atmosphere can either warm or cool the planet
Greenhouse gases Air Pollution
CO2, CH4, H20, CFCs, N2O SOx NOx VOCs PM CO Toxics

6. Increased temperatures
Climate
Burning change Changes in precipitation and
fossil fuels wind patterns
Mitigation:
Most measures
 air pollution
Biomass may  Wind patterns bring more
air pollution hot days and smog
SO2 More pollen and mould
More air
NO2 conditioners More forest fires
VOCs
CO
Toxics

7. Climate Change Primary Impacts-
Temperature and Precipitation
2100
2050
Approximate temperature changes
Canada (2050)/ Global (2100):
Blue -1 – 0
Green 1– 2/4
Yellow 2/4 – 3/5
Orange 3/5 – 5/7
Red 5/8 – 6/10

8. 2050
2050
Approximate precipitation
changes (%) Canada/Global:
Orange -10/-20 – 0
Light Green 0 – 10/20
Mid green 10/20 – 20/40
Dark Green 20/40 – 30/80

9. Climate change
may entail
change in variance,
as well as a change
in mean
(Watson, et al 2001)

10. Predicted Climate Change Effects:
Melting of polar ice caps
Sea level rise
More frequent and more severe
weather events (flooding, drought,
fire)
Ecozone shifts
Changes in patterns of transmission of
infectious disease
Increase in air pollution
Human displacement and health
effects

11. Health Effects
Increased illness and death from familiar causes
Increased likelihood of unfamiliar health outcomes
Direct Effects:
Temperature Anomaly, March 2012
 From heat waves
Est. Montreal (2050)
increase in deaths from
70 to 240-1140.
 From weather disasters
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=77671
Drowning, CO poisoning, hypothermia,
cardiovascular events

12. Indirect effects:
 Health risks from changes in food production and
altered water quality and quantity
Mental and physical health consequences of
displacement of vulnerable populations
Alterations in transmission of infectious disease
Malaria, Dengue Fever, Encephalitis,
Cholera, Hantavirus, Cryptosporidiosis,
Lyme’s Disease, E. coli infection
Increased illness and death from respiratory disease,
due to increased air pollution, especially
ground-level ozone

13. Climate Change Impacts on Air Quality and
Respiratory Health
Increase in ambient air pollution
Increased use of air conditioners, refrigerators
increases power plant demand.
In regions where warm weather is carried on winds
coming from industrialized locations, increasing number of
warm and hot days will bring increasing number of poor air
days.
Temperature can affect precursors of smog, but
direct connections between temperature and chemical
reactions that make smog must be made with care.
Atmospheric chemistry is complex.

14. The best-studied air pollutants are:
Particulate matter (“fine” particles are < 2.5µ m /m3) (PM
2.5)
Ground-level ozone (O3)
There is no safe level of exposure
Acute health effects include congestion, difficulty breathing,
asthma attacks, chest pains, heart attacks (PM2.5), and
occasionally death. Chronic effects also include reduced lung
development, low birth weight, some evidence of cancer.
Vulnerable populations are those with pre-existing
respiratory and cardiovascular illness, the very young, the
elderly, and those with strenuous activities outdoors.

16. Heat AND Air Pollution
There have been an increasing
number of instances where
people have died from combined Pollution Cited as Factor in
French Heat Deaths
impacts of heat and air pollution. Mon September 1, 2003 01:08 PM
See Toronto Public Health Study ET
By Kerstin Gehmlich PARIS
for models of present and future (Reuters) - Air pollution may have
been the cause of death for
health impacts from heat and air thousands of French people who
died in a heatwave that struck
pollution in southern Ontario Europe this August, an
environmental official said Monday.
Differential and Combined Impacts of Winter and "Several hundreds or thousands
Summer Weather and Air Pollution due to could have been affected. Maybe
between 1,000 and 3,000," said
Global Warming on Human Mortality in South-central
Jean-Felix Bernard, president of
Canada
France's Conseil National de l'Air, an
(Project Number of the Health Policy Research Program: air quality agency attached to the
6795-15-2001/4400011) Environment Ministry.
Chad Shouquan Cheng Meteorological Service of Canada
(MSC)—Ontario Region, EC
Monica Campbell Toronto Public Health, City of Toronto

17. Study shows heat and smog are killers
Last Updated Mon, 06 Jun 2005 21:34:28 EDT
This study was conducted by a team of scientists from Toronto's public health
department, the federal government and McMaster University in Hamilton.
(Pengally, 2005)
It concluded that extreme heat was killing an average of 120 people a year in
Toronto, 121 in Montreal, 41 in Ottawa and 37 in Windsor.
The air pollution that causes smog was found to be the cause of 822 deaths a
year in Toronto, 818 in Montreal, 368 in Ottawa and 258 in Windsor.
The study predicted that heat-related deaths will double by 2050 and triple by
2080 because of global warming.
The scientists recommended the federal government introduce a national heat
warning system such as Toronto's.
•Listen for Air Quality and Heat Alerts
•Keep cool.
•Take rests.
•Drink lots of water
•Check on elderly or frail who live alone
•Take advantage of air conditioning in public
places

18. Climate change and forest fires
8
Canada
Annual Area Burned
Million hectares burned
6
Key Factors:
4
•Fuel - loading, moisture, structure
etc.
2 •Ignition - human and lightning
•Weather - To, precipitation
0
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 atmospheric moisture and wind;
Year upper atmospheric conditions
•Humans - land use,
fragmentation, fire management
etc.
(Courtesy of Brigitte Leblon)

19. An increase in forest fires in some regions
Burning wood releases PM, carbon monoxide,
polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and many other
toxins
Makes breathing difficult especially for asthmatics,
reduces immune system defenses against respiratory
infections. May cause heart attacks and long term
exposure can cause cancer.

20. Heat Wave, Fires Wreak Havoc in Southeast Europe
ROMANIA: July 25, 2007
BUCHAREST - Twelve Romanians died and fire-fighters, soldiers and
volunteers battled wildfires across southeastern Europe on Tuesday
as a persistent heat wave broke temperature records across the
region.
Serbia was battling 50 forest fires on what meteorologists predicted
would be the hottest day of the year, with the temperature topping
43 degrees Celsius (109 Fahrenheit).
In Romania, the heat wave's death toll rose to 30 and 19,000 people
had been admitted to hospital in the region's second devastating hot
spell this year.
Bucharest tried to cope with sporadic power blackouts under an
increased load of air conditioners and fans, but health officials
were able to cancel "Code Red" emergency measures declared on Monday
as they forecast easing temperatures.

21. An increase in mould growth, and possible
changes in types of mould
Unusual patterns of precipitation, storms and
flooding can result in mould growth.
Exposure to mould is suspected to cause asthma
in some people.
Species of mould unusual in Canada have been
found in BC forests. In a few instances this has
caused fever, aches and respiratory problems in
people.

22. Indoor air quality and climate change considerations
Moisture issues
Changes in building design for energy efficiency
Changes in timing and intensity of rainfall
Building on flood plains
2005- Katrina Cough
Basement mould

23. An increase in certain plants and their pollen
Increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
and increased temperatures fosters growth in
some plants, such as ragweed.
This can lead to an increase in frequency and
severity of asthma and allergic reactions

24. Changes in distribution of deer mice infected with
Hantavirus
The variant of Sin Nombre Virus (SNV) in the US and
western Canada can cause a respiratory distress
syndrome.
Changes in precipitation/drought cycles can change the
predator/prey relationships which in turn affect the
distribution of mice.

25. Warmer marine water may favour the growth of certain
algae responsible for “red tides” which can produce
harmful toxins
In Canada so far these toxins are only a problem when
ingested
But examples in Florida (Karenia brevis) show that toxins
can be carried as aerosols into the air and cause nose and
throat irritation and asthma attacks

26. Malaria
Unlikely to impact Canada because of surveillance
and control systems
Certain species do cause respiratory symptom,
including Plasmodium vivax which occurred
naturally in Canada until the late 1800s.

27. Possible Negative Air Quality Impacts of
Certain Actions to Mitigate Climate Change
Biomass burning – Considered to be
“carbon neutral”
Increased energy-efficiency in buildings
without proper ventilation
Mould growth
Increased CO2
Radon
Switching from gasoline to diesel in
vehicles - Diesel is more efficient but
produces more air-borne toxins

28. Solutions to Mitigate Climate Change
AND Air Pollution
Unlike some solutions to reduce air pollutants that use
scrubbers etc. to remove pollutants from the “ends of stacks”,
carbon dioxide cannot be efficiently removed now (but
sequestration technology being actively developed).
Best solutions will reduce both types of pollution
Efficiency measures (reduce demand and burn fossil
fuels more efficiently)
Switch to renewable resources, but beware of biomass
burning and ethanol from food stock

29. Integrated strategies save money and have co-benefits
(GHG/ Air pollutants reduced and human health costs
avoided)
Health benefits costs can be greater than costs of
emissions reduction (US EPA:
IES Handbook: Guidance document for policymakers, technicians
International version of manual for EPA’s Environmental Benefits
Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) software
Air Pollution Health Benefits Assessment Model (APHEBA) users’
guide and training course. )
Health cost benefits usually greater than climate
change benefits(McKinley et al 2005)

30. Placeholder slide
Communicating the Health Risks of Climate Change
Reference CCHO, Health Canada
http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/ewh-semt/pubs/climat/index-eng.php
Heat Event Public Health Alert and Response System
Air Quality Health Index
National Health Atlas / Portal?
Heat vulnerability assessment
Source: Vescovi, 2007

32. Adapting to Possible Increases in Ambient Air
Pollution
Personal actions (Efficiency measures,
switching time for electricity use, lawn
mowers, barbeques, reduce vehicle use)
Building air filtration technology
Technological and policy measures at
government and industry levels
The new Air Quality Health Index
www. airhealth.ca
GIS real-time mapping. Britain uses air
quality index and forecasts to plan hospital
emergency room staff levels.

33. Modeling future air quality is difficult
Modeling climate changes- fairly good
Predicted changes to temperature, precipitation, humidity,
wind
ADD TO THIS
Impact of changes to emissions
Increasing uncertainty / modeling of future air pollution
less accurate

34. Maps Can Help Us Make the Links
Heat Stress
Air Quality
Syndromic Surveillance
Hospitalization Costs
Public Health
Resources
Health
Indicators

37. Beta WMS,
Environment
Canada

40. SEA-LEVEL RISE &
STORM SURGES

41. OGC compliantNBLA Web Mapping Portal
web-mapping application provides access to
credible, closest to source, health, population, and environmental
indicators in support of decision-making

42. Quick Web Map Viewer (to consume WMS, WFS, WPS)
Operations Center / Remote Participants
Time series automation with time-tag in WMS

43. ARCGIS SERVER .NET
These Sample Maps Are Health Maps from Previous
Geospatial Projects (2003-2008)

44. Theme
User requirements survey for National Portal,
Health Canada
Climate change impacts on
public health (e.g. heat Events and Conferences
1 6
events, air quality, extreme (e.g. calendar,
weather, vector borne and announcements)
transmissible diseases) Features &
Functions
Environmental
links Links to Peer Reviewed
2 Information (e.g. 7
research articles or
weather, climate,
journals
pollution, humidity)
Population health trends search and query tools
links
(e.g. wellness indicators, Links to data sources and (e.g. by topic, author,
3 Population 8 Database models 1 location, source, content/ 6 Contact, Social Media, RSS
Health trends
respiratory illness in
population, spatial keywords)
distribution of diseases) access to experts,
navigation and toolbar
Best Practices: Public 2 (e.g. zoom, print or export, 7 community-of-practice
links Links to research or upload/download, profile) Experts members, help tools
4 Best Health Adaptation; 9
practices education programs
Emergency Management,
offered in Canada visualization tools (e.g. upload and download
Medicine, Urban Planning
3 images, graphs, charts, 8 capabilities
maps)
Highlights and Featured
5 Vulnerable Populations 10 collaboration tools (e.g. wiki, export (e.g. data,
Vulnerable Highlights publications
populations Features 4 discussion forums, working 9 publications, visuals)
groups, for registered users)
other research tools (e.g.
alerting /
published research methods,
5 templates or frameworks, 10 subscription
session save/retrieval,
‘favouriting’ entries, digital
archival, research timeline /
group calendar, citing, data
services / analytics)

45. KEY DATA SOURCES
 Framework data – GeoBase, NTS, Public Health Agency of Canada (Map and Data Exchange)
 Licensed data from NB Department of Health, Canadian Institute for Health Information, Public Health Agency of Canada
 New Brunswick Lung Association Map Layers (community outreach programs)
 Heat event public health alerting – 2011 pilot in 4 cities (including Fredericton) – expanding in 2012, Health Canada
 Humidity, Temperature, Precipitation, Air Quality Data: Meteorological Service Canada (e.g. via WMS – Beta phase)
 Regional Downscale Climate Scenarios for Atlantic Canada – (e.g. future WMS & WCS) Weather (WXXM, GRIB, DBF), CCCSN
http://cccsn.ca/?page=main&lang=en
 Air Quality Health Index – Ozone reporting / Health Index
 Atlantic Region Air Monitoring Sites: http://atlantic-web1.ns.ec.gc.ca/airmons/index_e.cfm (no longer available)
 National Air Pollutant Survey (NAPS) – Environment Canada, published in CEC Atlas
 National Pollutant Release Inventory (NPRI) – Environment Canada, published in CEC Atlas
 MODIS – NASA: http://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/dataprod/index.php
 Canada: Geogratis: http://geogratis.cgdi.gc.ca/download/EO_Data/MODIS/ / http://geogratis.cgdi.gc.ca/download/
 Service New Brunswick – building the NB Shared Data Infrastructure (http://geonb.snb.ca/geonb/ viewer)
 NB Department of Environment: monitoring stations, flood & watershed data, water quality, EIAs
 Flood Modeling – useful for health outcomes related to molds / mosquito populations / West Nile
 Forestry Service – species distribution, health, and disease
 Statistics Canada – many health indicator data sets
 Sea Level Rise – Environment Canada

46. OTHER DATA SETS OF INTEREST
 Ambient Particulate Matter .5, 2.5, 10
 New Brunswick Lung Association conducts studies in partnership with health authorities to
determine exposure to ozone, PM, and other air pollutants
 monitoring real time exposures & emissions of Particulate Matter
 Fleet & Traffic-related pollution
 Residential and Commercial radon concentrations
 Airborne Fungal Concentrations in Public Schools
 Sulfur dioxide concentration from petroleum processing plants
 Extreme Weather Data / Forecasts
 Forest Fires / Smog Alerts
 Geographic and temporal distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons
 Pest / Insect Infestations
 Rabies

47. Population Distribution
by Health Region

48.  Phone: 1-506-453-0887
 Email: eoldfield@bellaliant.net