1. National Drought Mitigation Center
Overview of Drought Vulnerability Research
and Planning in the North Central Region
Dr. Cody L. Knutson
National Drought Mitigation Center
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
cknutson1@unl.edu
“End-to-End”: research-applications-operations-outreach-service
continuum working with users…

2. NDMC Drought and Impact Monitoring

3. NDMC Planning and Social Science Program Area
Vulnerability Assessment and Planning
Farmers/ranchers - Communities - Watersheds - States
• Questions: sustainable farmer and holistic rancher’s definitions of
sustainability; effects of 2002-2004 drought; response/adaptation strategies
implemented; use of weather and climate information; barriers to drought
risk reduction and use of weather/climate information
• Methods: mail survey and 48 face-to-face interviews
Knutson, C.L., T. Haigh, M. Hayes, M. Widlham, J. Nothwehr, and M. Kleinschmidt (2011) Farmer
Perceptions of Sustainable Agriculture Practices and Drought Risk Reduction in Nebraska, USA,
Journal of Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems, 26(3): 255-266
Sustainable Adaptations to Drought and Climate
Variability in Agricultural Production Systems Across
Nebraska (2004-2006;UNL collaborators)

4. Drought Risk Management on the Ranch
Great Plains focus (2006-2012)
Ranchers; UNL/SDSU Extension; NRCS
Questions: effects of drought on ranch operations in the Great Plains,
drought management strategies; drought plan and process, and
recommendations
Methods: 21 telephone interviews with rancher/advisors involved in
drought planning; deliberate dialogue (workshop); case studies, and
advisor input
Managing Drought Risk on the Ranch website:
http://drought.unl.edu/ranchplan/Overview.aspx
Haigh, T., and C. Knutson, Role of Perceived Control and Planning in Ranch
Drought Preparedness, Great Plains Research, in press
Knutson, C. L., and T. Haigh, 2013. A Drought Planning Methodology for
Ranchers in the Great Plains, Rangelands. Vol. 35 (1), pp. 27-33.

5. Combining Climate Science and Social Science to Develop Decision Support Tools
for Corn Producers and Advisors (2011-2016)
Linda Stalker Prokopy, PhD
U2U Project Director, Associate Professor
Purdue University
5

6. U2UTeam
State climatologists
Crop modelers
Agronomists
Economists
Social scientists
RCC staff
NOAA staff

7. U.S. CORN BELT
• Nearly one-third of global supply
• Over $50B to US economy

8. CurrentWork
• Model the impact of climate and farm management on crop
productivity and profits
– Using past and future climate scenarios
• Understand beliefs and concerns about climate change and
willingness to use climate information
– Surveys and focus groups (also network analysis)
Models and Data Stakeholder Input
Decision
Support Tools

9. CropModelingandDataAnalysis
• Develop an ensemble of crop models on a 4-km grid, Midwest
– DSSAT, Hybrid-Maize, ISAM
– Range of agronomic outcomes for various climate scenarios (past & future)
• Impact of climate and management on productivity and profits
– Agroclimatic trends analysis (1900-2011)
– Regional ENSO analysis
– NASS ‘field work days’ climatology – trends, patterns, future scenarios
– Effects of crop mix, climate, etc. on capital investment decisions (case studies)
Objective 1: What are the contributions of anomalous weather to
crop variability and implications for future management options?

10. Producer Survey
• CS-CAP partnership
• Mail survey of +19,000 farmers
• 22 HUC6 watersheds, 60% of US
corn production
• Data joined to NASS Ag Census
Advisor Survey
• Web-based survey of 8,000+ advisors
– All advisors in pilot states, Extension in 12 states
• Crop consultants, Extension, bankers/lawyers, agro-business, state and
federal, crop associations, etc.
ClimateNeedsAssessment Surveys

11. SurveyQuestion Topics
• Type and timing of farm management strategies
• Influence and use of weather/climate information
• Climate change concerns and beliefs
• Risk management strategies, roles, responsibilities
• Influential information sources
Arbuckle, J., L. Prokopy, T. Haigh, J. Hobs, T. Knoot, C. Knutson, A. Loy, A. Mase, J. McGuire, L. Morton, J. Tyndall,
M. Widhalm. 2013. Climate change beliefs, concerns, and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation among
farmers in the Midwestern United States. Climatic Change Letters. Vol. 117 (4), pp. 943-950.
Prokopy, L., T. Haigh, A. Mase, J. Angel, C. Hart, C. Knutson, M. Lemos, Y. Lo, J. McGuire, L. Morton, J. Perron, D.
Todey, M. Widhalm. 2013. Agricultural Advisors: A Receptive Audience for Weather and Climate Information?
Weather, Climate, and Society, Vol. 5 (2): 162-167.

12. • Linking oceanic indices to multiple-year droughts and wet periods;
effects on ag production and water systems
• Center for Research on the Changing Earth System (Maryland); U.S.
Army Corp or Engineers; NOAA Climate Services; State of Montana
Questions: impacts of multiple-year drought and wet periods on ag
production and water systems; potential use of seasonal to multiple-year
climate outlooks for management activities (based on oceanic indices)
Methods: face to face interviews; 7 deliberate dialogue (workshops);
case studies (Kansas City; Great Falls, and Lincoln), basin-wide survey of
community water systems, and expert advisory panel
Mehta, V.M., N.J. Rosenberg, C.L. Knutson, J. R. Olsen, N.A. Wall, T.K. Bernadt, M.J. Hayes, 2013: Decadal Climate
Information Needs of Stakeholders for Decision Support in Water and Agriculture Production Sectors: A Case Study in
the Missouri River Basin. Weather, Climate, and Society, 5, 27-42.
Mehta, V.M., N.J. Rosenberg, and K. Mendoza, 2012: Simulated impacts of three decadal climate variability phenomena
on dryland corn and wheat yields in the Missouri River Basin. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 152, 109-124.
Mehta, V.M., N.J. Rosenberg, and K. Mendoza, 2011: Simulated impacts of three decadal climate variability phenomena
on water yields in the Missouri River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47, 126-135.
Decadal climate variability impacts,
management, and information needs in the
Missouri River Basin (2006-current)

13. Specific Tasks:
(1) develop retrospective drought and wet period scenarios
using statistical modeling of DCV indices and their
associations with hydro-meteorological variables in the
Basin
(2) conduct sectoral impact evaluations through use of the
Hydrologic Unit Model of the United States (HUMUS) and
the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) driven by
the retrospective scenarios
(3) Gather impact information on recent drought and wet
periods and explore potential for developing future decadal
climate outlooks with stakeholders during three regional
workshops in Kansas City, MO; Helena, MT; and Lincoln, NE
Potential Applications of Decadal Climate Predictions
in Water and Agriculture Sectors in the Missouri River Basin
Cody L. Knutson1, Vikram M. Mehta2, Norman J. Rosenberg2, J. Rolf Olsen3, Nicole A. Wall1, Tonya K. Bernadt1, and Michael J. Hayes1
1 National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska – Lincoln, Nebraska
2 Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Maryland
3 U. S. Army Corps of Engineers – Institute for Water Resources, Virginia
Introduction
At least three decadal climate
variability (DCV) phenomena -- the
Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the
tropical Atlantic sea-surface
temperature (SST) gradient
oscillation, and the west Pacific Warm
Pool SST variability -- significantly
impact the hydro-meteorology of the
Missouri River Basin.
From 2008-2010, the team assessed
the effects of these long-term sea
surface temperature phenomena on
water supplies and crop yields in the
Basin, along with the perceptions of
stakeholders about their DCV
information needs and the potential
applications of DCV outlooks in the
basin’s water and agriculture sectors.
Financial assistance for the study was
provided by the Sectoral Applications
Research Program, Climate Program
Office , U.S. Department of
Commerce, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration.
Dr. Cody L. Knutson
NDMC, SNR, UNL
402-472-6718/ cknutson1@unl.edu
Gathering input from 90 representatives from agriculture, water and electric power utility,
transportation, natural resources and government sectors
Modeling Results:
Association of positive and negative phases of DCV phenomena with
streamflow in three sub-basins in the northern Missouri River Basin.
EPIC simulation of DCV impact
on spring wheat yields in the MRB
HUMUS-SWAT simulation of DCV
impact on water yield in the basin
Potential Applications of DCV Outlooks:
Agriculture: Guidance for future crop selection and cattle stocking rates,
appropriate land-use, irrigation development, pesticide and fertilizer
applications, and insurance coverage
Municipal water: Guidance for water infrastructure investments, water
uses and pricing, land use planning, and flood protection
River Management: Guidance for reservoir operations, barge
transportation viability, recreation and fisheries management
Energy (hydropower, coal, and nuclear): Guidance for infrastructure
development, fuel purchases, marketing, and effluent requirements
Summary of Findings:
• Substantial associations between hydro-meteorological anomalies
and PDO, TAG, and WPWP DCV patterns in the basin
• Need for climate and societal impacts information about decadal
droughts and wet periods
• Users beginning to think how they would use decadal climate and
impacts information, even the current phases of major DCV phenomena
• Many potential barriers to producing and using decadal climate outlooks,
but users eager to work with climate scientists
• Missouri River Basin a very important and ‘fertile’ region to sow seeds
of climate services, but sustained efforts required to build credibility
of climate science and scientists
Contact Information:

14. Predictability and Prediction of Decadal Climate and its Societal
Impacts in the Missouri River Basin: A Regional Study Integrating
Earth System, Hydrologic, Agricultural, Economic and Land Use
Models
• 2011-2014
• Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Texas A&M University
Specific Objectives:
(1) assess simulations and hindcasts of two decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena (PDO
and TAG) and their effects on the Basin's hydro-meteorology by global EaSMs (GEaSMs)
(2) downscale simulated and hindcast data from relatively coarse resolution GEaSMs to
relatively high resolution as input to water and crop yield models
(3) quantify decadal predictability of water and crop yields in the Basin, using downscaled
GEaSM data and HM observations-based DCV scenarios in HUMUS-SWAT model
(4) quantify value of adaptive actions given decadal predictions of water and crop yields in
terms of potential economic and other impacts, using FASOM and RIVERSIM models
(5) develop an experimental decadal climate and impacts prediction system for the Basin using
hydrologic, crop, and economic models; and downscaled data from GEaSMs, along with
DCV scenarios based on observed HM data; and assess their effectiveness via interactions
with stakeholders and policymakers.

15. Participatory modeling – Stakeholder advisory team/watershed stakeholders

16. Missouri sub-basin “Golden Triangle”
(north-central Montana)
Proposed: selection
of 1 or 2 watersheds
for detailed analysis to
develop credible
scenarios of future
DCV events for use in
contingency planning
(if-then scenarios)

17. Status of State Drought Planning in the U.S.

18. URL: http://www.drought.unl.edu/Planning/PlanningProcesses.aspx
NDMC 10-Step Drought Planning Process
• Created in 1990
• Revised in 2005
• Increased emphasis
on drought mitigation

19. • Monitoring and early warning system
– assess, communicate, and trigger action
– foundation of a drought mitigation plan
• Vulnerability assessment
– who and what is at risk and why?
• Mitigation and response actions
– actions/programs that reduce risk and impacts
and enhance recovery
Most processes and plans in the past focused on
monitoring and response
Essential Drought Plan Components

20. Ex) Nebraska Municipal Water Supply, Health,
and Energy Subcommittee
Drought Impact Ranking
1. Municipal water supply shortages
2. Rural water district mechanical problems
3. Private well water quantity and quality problems
4. Excessive irrigation pumping/aquifer conflicts
5. Mental anguish
6. Industrial users drawing down aquifers
7. Health problems from blowing dust
8. Temperature extremes/increased electrical
usage

21. Colorado Drought Mitigation and Response Plan
2010-2011
Prepared as Drought Annex to:
Colorado Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan and Emergency Operations Plan
Vulnerability Assessment

23. Inspiration:
Fontaine, M., and A.C. Steinemann. 2009. Assessing vulnerability to natural hazards: An
impact-based method and application to drought in Washington State. Natural Hazards
Review 10(1):11-18.

24. - Instream flows and hatcheries - highest impact scores are counties
with most junior water rights

25. Concluding thoughts…
• Our assessments are largely project-based; few basin-wide
• Several studies qualitative / some quantitative (or both)
• Progression toward more quantitative/integrated assessments
• Integration can be challenging
• Integrating models and perspectives
• obtaining data; identifying meaingful vulnerability metrics
• Some local resistance to climate change funding and
adaptation (e.g. grant proposals and farmer/advisor survey)

26. Cody Knutson
cknutson1@unl.edu
National Drought Mitigation Center
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Contact Information:

27. Risk Assessment Committee
Task 1: Conduct a Drought Impact Assessment
Task 2: Rank the Most Pressing Impacts
Task 3: Conduct a Vulnerability Assessment
- understand where and why impacts occur?
Task 4. Identify Risk Management Options
- actions to implement before, during, and after drought
Task 4. Prioritize Risk Management Options
- recommended actions based on criteria agreed to
Hawaii Water Supply Sector Vulnerability Colorado Agricultural Vulnerability

28. Takle et al., in prep.
Climate-based decision
calendar for corn

29. Drought Risk
Atlas (DRA): • Coming Soon!
• Set to launch in
spring 2012
• ~3000 stations
archived
• 139 clusters/regions
developed and
analyzed
• SPI, SPEI, PDSI, sc-
PDSI and Deciles
through 2010
• Weekly gridded maps
for all parameters
back to early 1900s
• Created to answer
questions about
the characteristics
of drought:
• Frequency/return
periods
• Duration
• Trends
• Intensity
• Spatial extent