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Aquilla
Apple Results Q3 2016
Summary and Commentary
Note: Apple Q3 ≈ Calendar Q2
These data are derived from results published by Apple, Inc., from the published results
of other companies, and from assorted independent analysts, as identified in the slides.
The opinions are those of the author, and should in no way be interpreted as
investment advice.
Aquilla
Narrative
Apple Summary
•“Stronger customer demand and business performance than we anticipated” - Tim Cook
•“Revenue was near the high end of our guidance and gross margin at the top of our guidance” - Tim Cook
•“We saw tremendous performance from our Services businesses, which saw broad-based growth” - Tim Cook

Wall Street Response
•Surprise!
•Numbers beat expectations almost across the board
•Only Services and Mac fell short, narrowly, plus iPhone ASP was lower than expected (iPhone SE impact)
•Share price gained around 5% after the announcements

Analyst Response
•Beat expectations, but still reported declines in most metrics
•Guidance for Q4 is stronger than expected, but gross margins lower
•China a concern - 33% YoY decline. Strong results from weak countries (Ru, Br, Tr, In), with Japan a highlight
•Where is all the R & D money being spent?
Aquilla
Key Data Points - Q3 2016
Wall Street † Reported YoY
Revenue $ 42.1 B $ 42.4 B -15%
Net Income $ 7.8 B -27%
EPS (Diluted) $1.39 $1.42 -23%
iPhone Units 39.9 M 40.4 M -15%
iPhone ASP $606 $595 -10%
iPad Units 9.1 M 10.0 M -9%
Mac Units 4.4 M 4.3 M -11%
Watch Units 2.0 M Not reported Not reported
Services $ $ 6.1 B $ 6.0 B + 19%
Other Products $ $ 2.2 B $ 2.2 B -16%
Gross Margin 37.9% 38.0% - 1.7 points
Cash & Long Term Securities $ 232 B -1% *
Q3 Revenue Guidance $ 45.1 B $ 45.5 - 47.5 B FY15: $ 51.5 B
Q3 Gross Margin Guidance 38.4% 37.5-38.0% FY15: 39.9%
* QoQ† Fortune, Bloomberg, Others
Aquilla
Quarterly Revenue
Second Decline
•Revenues of $42.4B
declined by 15% YoY,
but were within Apple’s
April guidance, and
above the consensus,
which expected $42.1B
•This was however still
on the back of very
strong comps in 2015 (ie
13% up on Q3 2014)
•Channel inventories also
fell, especially on
iPhone
•These revenues are still
nearly double those of
Samsung Mobile,
Alphabet and Microsoft.
•Guidance for FQ3 of
$45.5-47.5B was weak,
implying a midpoint
decline of 10% YoY
Comparative
Revenues
CQ2 2016
SamsungElectronics
Microsoft
Alphabet
SamsungMobile
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Q1
'16
Q2
'16
Q3
'16
Q4
'16
Revenue
Growth
(%)
Revenue
(B$)
Apple Revenue
Revenue B$ Revenue YoY Growth
Source: Company Results
Aquilla
Net Income and Growth
Sharp Decline
•Net income declined
27% to $7.8B
•This decline was
anticipated
•Apple’s net income still
dwarfs other tech
companies:
•1.5x Samsung Electronics
•1.5x Alphabet
•3x Samsung Mobile
•2.5x Microsoft
Comparative
Net Income
CQ1 2016
Alphabet
Microsoft
SamsungMobile(OpIncm)
SamsungElectronics
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
0
5
10
15
20
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Q1
'16
Q2
'16
Q3
'16
Q4
'16
Net Income
Growth
(%)
Net Income
($B)
Apple Net Income
Net Income B$ Net Income YoY Growth
Source: Company Results
Aquilla
Net Income, Margin and Tax
Income Declined, Tax Steady
•A further drop in net margin to 18%,
the lowest since 2008
•This and the Gross Margin figures
were put down primarily to iPhone
mix and inventory adjustments
•Apple’s net tax rate held steady at
26% of Net Income before tax
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Q1
'16
Q2
'16
Q3
'16
Q4
'16
Tax Rate,
Net Margin
(%)
Tax,
Net Income
($B)
Apple Net Income, Margin, Tax
Net Income B$ Tax B$
Net Income % Net Tax %
Source: Apple Results
Aquilla
Cash, Investments & Capital Return
Cash Machine Still Delivering
•Apple generated $10.6B of cash from
operations in the quarter
•The company returned $13.1B to
shareholders, mostly through Stock
Repurchases ($10.0B), which offer
Apple greater flexibility than
dividends
•Long and short term cash holdings
declined by $1.4B in the quarter, and
the company has a still incredible
$232B in cash
•The share of cash held outside the
US, for tax reasons, grew again, to
93% of the whole ($215B): Apple is
borrowing in the US to fund the
capital return programme, with a new
round in July at even better rates
Source: Apple Results
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Q1
'16
Q2
'16
Q3
'16
Q4
'16
Ex-US
%
(B$)
Apple Cash & Capital Return
Short Term Cash B$ Long Term Cash B$
Cash Generated B$ Capital Return B$
Non-US Held Cash %
Aquilla
Debt Growth
Long Term Debt Grows
•Apple’s overseas-held cash would
trigger substantial tax liabilities if
repatriated, so the capital return
programme of stock purchases and
dividends is being funded largely
through debt
•Most of this has been placed in the
US, though increasingly other markets
are being tapped
•Total long term debt held steady
during the quarter at $72B, equivalent
to 31% of long term cash
•A further round of $7B has since been
placed by Apple, at advantageous
rates
•In the current low-interest financial
climate this strategy has good logic,
but it would seem important that
Apple pays careful attention to the
balance between these two figures,
especially as headwinds mount for
the core business
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Q1
'16
Q2
'16
Q3
'16
Q4
'16
Long Term
Debt %(B$)
Apple Debt Share of Cash
Total Cash B$ Long Term Debt B$ Long Term Debt %
Source: Apple Results
Aquilla
Capital Expenditure
Apple Invests
•Apple’s capital expenditure leapt in
2012, more than doubling the 2011
figure, to $10.3B
•It seems likely that this reflected the
build out of iCloud data centres, and a
dramatic increase in tooling placed in
suppliers’ facilities
•Outlook for 2016 was for another jump,
to $15B, now reduced to $13B,
(possibly due to delays in the planned
Irish data centre), to cover: “product
tooling and manufacturing process
equipment; data centres; corporate
facilities and infrastructure, including
information systems hardware, software
and enhancements; and retail store
facilities”
•The purchase of land for the new
corporate campus took place in 2011,
but the main CapEx for the site will fall
in 2016
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
FY '11 FY '12 FY '13 FY '14 FY '15 FY'16 3Q
CapEx vs
Revenue
(%)
CapEx
($M)
Apple Capital Expenditure
Capital Expenditure M$ CapEx % of Revenue
Source: Apple Results
Aquilla
Research & Development
Upward Trend
•Apple has not traditionally been a big
spender on R&D, preferring smaller
focused teams
•However R&D spend has been rising in
recent quarters, from around 2.2% to
nearly 5% of revenue annualised, and
6% in Q3
•This appears to be deliberate, with Cook
stating: “it is for products we are
shipping, and ones we are not shipping.
I will not talk about the split.”
•This quarter saw R&D spend jump again
to $2.6B, 26% up on Q3 2015, taking
the spend to 4.6% of 12 month average
quarterly revenues
R&D $ R&D %
Samsung Electronics $ 3.2 B 6.5%
Microsoft $ 3.0 B 12.9%
Google $ 3.1 B 16.4%
Intel $ 3.0 B 21.9%
R&D Spend (Avg/Qtr 2015, % of Rev)
Quarterly R&D is here tracked against average 12 month trailing
revenues to reflect the non-seasonal nature of R&D spend
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Q1
'16
Q2
'16
Q3
'16
Q4
'16
R&D vs Rev
12m Trlg
(%)
R&D Spend
($M)
Apple Research & Development
R&D M$ R&D % of 12m Avg Rev
Source: Apple Results
Aquilla
Inventory
Inventory Stable
•Apple’s miracle inventory management
continues, ending the quarter with 3.9
days of stock, a small downtick from
Q2
•This is 93 annual stock turns!
•And this despite having 484 retail
stores at quarter end, with product on
the shelves
•For comparison, Samsung Electronics
reports typically over 30 days of stock
(32 in CQ2 2016)
•For a technology, company being able
to manage stock this efficiently is a
huge asset
•It is driven by Apple’s very tough
supplier negotiations, which smaller
players will always struggle to match
•Channel inventory was reported to
have been reduced, particularly for
iPhone, and sits at the low side of
Apple’s targets
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Q1
'16
Q2
'16
Q3
'16
Q4
'16
Days of
Stock
Inventory
(M$)
Apple Inventory
Inventory M$ Days of Stock
Source: Apple Results
Aquilla
Revenue by Product Line
Apple Still a Phone Company
•iPhone’s dominance continues
despite it losing 23% by value, (and
15% by units) YoY
•iPhone seasonality remains marked, a
function both of market and launch
cycles
•All the main Geos other than Japan
saw iPhone declines, but inventory
reduction of 4m units compared
favourably with 0.5M reduction in
Q3’15, implying that sell through was
down only 8% in units
•iPhone SE has been very strong, both
with switchers and upgraders
•42% smartphone penetration leaves
still a huge opportunity
•iPhone dominates such that the other
product lines are expanded on the
next slide, for better visibility
Services: Music, App, Mac App & iBooks Stores, AppleCare, Apple Pay, licensing, other services
Other Products: Watch, iPod, Apple TV, Apple-branded, Beats and third-party accessories
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Q1
'16
Q2
'16
Q3
'16
Q4
'16
Revenue
(M$)
Product Line Revenue Streams
iPhone M$ iPad M$ Mac M$ Services M$ Other Products M$
Source: Apple Results
Aquilla
Revenue by Product Line (rescaled)
Services Bright Spot
•Services continued their inevitable
growth, moving to become Apple’s
second largest product category, with
14% share. (Note $0.5B one-off
royalties reported in Q1)
•This was across the board, with App
Store growing 37%, and a new record
for iTunes revenues
•Mac had another weak quarter, with
11% YoY unit and 13% revenue
decline
•IDC reports sell-through, and saw a
4.5% decline in the PC market, and
marked Apple with a loss in share for
the first time in many years
•iPad returned to dollar growth,
gaining 7% YoY though declining 9%
in units, suggesting success with the
iPad Pro into enterprise
•Other Products includes the Watch,
and declined 16% YoY, the first
comparable quarter since the launch
Services: Music, App, Mac App & iBooks Stores, AppleCare, Apple Pay, licensing, other services
Other Products: Watch, iPod, Apple TV, Apple-branded, Beats and third-party accessories
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Q1
'16
Q2
'16
Q3
'16
Q4
'16
Revenue
(M$)
Product Line Revenue Streams (rescaled)
iPhone M$ iPad M$
Mac M$ Services M$
Other Products M$ IB Services M$
Source: Apple Results
Aquilla
iPhone - Losing Share
Source: Apple Results, IDC
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Q1
'16
Q2
'16
Q3
'16
Q4
'16
YoY
Growth
Q Units
(000s)
iPhone Growth vs Market
iPhone Units kU
iPhone Units YoY Growth
Smartphones YoY Growth
Aquilla
iPad - Turned the Corner?
Source: Apple Results, IDC
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Q1
'16
Q2
'16
Q3
'16
Q4
'16
YoY
Growth
Q Units
(000s)
iPad Growth vs Market
iPad Units kU
iPad Units YoY Growth
Tablets YoY Growth
Aquilla
Mac - Lost Some Share
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Q1
'16
Q2
'16
Q3
'16
Q4
'16
Yoy
Growth
Units
(000s)
Mac Growth vs Market
Mac Units kU Mac Units YoY Growth PCs YoY Growth
Source: Apple Results, IDC
Aquilla
Services - Steady Gains
Tracking the trailing 12 months (current and 3
previous Quarters) eliminates seasonality, and
gives a better indication of the longer term trends
Source: Apple ResultsServices: Music, App, Mac App & iBooks Stores, AppleCare, Apple Pay, licensing, other services
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
24,000
28,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Q1
'16
Q2
'16
Q3
'16
Q4
'16
Trailing 12m
Revenue
($M)
Revenue
($M)
Services Revenue
Patent Fees M$ Services M$ Services Trailing 12m M$
Aquilla
Apple Watch Estimates
Apple Watch Estimates
•Watch attracted no analyst questions,
which may be significant, but
indications are of steady growth
•Reviewing the likely trends for the
main product groups reported in
Other Products suggests a figure of
$1,258M ex the Watch
•This suggests Apple Watch revenues
of $961M
•Unit estimates depend on the ASP
•At $350: Watch sold 2,745kU
•At $400: Watch sold 2,402kU
•At $450: Watch sold 2,135kU
•At $500: Watch sold 1,922kU
•At $550: Watch sold 1,747kU
•The most likely scenario is modelled
on a mix dropping to 64% Sport and
36% Watch, which suggests an ASP of
$470
•Hence Q3 Watch sales amounted to
2,043kU
•Cumulative Watch Sales add up to
12,476kU
Tracking the trailing 12 months (current and 3
previous Quarters) eliminates seasonality, and
gives a better indication of the longer term trends
Source: Apple Results, Aquilla Estimates
1,081
1,527
2,053
909 961
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
20,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Q1
'16
Q2
'16
Q3
'16
Q4
'16
Trailing 12m
Revenue
($M)
Revenue
($M)
Other Products Revenue - Watch Estimates
Others Ex Watch Estimate M$ Watch Estimate M$
Other Products Trailing 12m M$ iPod Trailing 12m M$
Aquilla
Active Installed Base Growth and Revenues
Over 1B Active Devices
•Apple announced passing 1 billion
active devices in Q1’16, and 1 billion
iPhones during July, and this was
reflected in continuing growth in
Services
•A number of considered estimates are
used to derive this chart - unlikely to
be perfect, but it does give an
indication of the trends for iOS and
Mac, plus the revenues per active
device
•Note: these numbers include all
Services revenue, including Music
revenues on other platforms (PCs),
and those linked to device purchase,
such as AppleCare, while only
counting Apple hardware units
Source: Apple Results, Aquilla EstimatesServices: Music, App, Mac App & iBooks Stores, AppleCare, Apple Pay, licensing, other services
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
24.0
30.0
36.0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
FY '11 FY '12 FY '13 FY '14 FY '15 FY'16 3Q
Revenue per
Device
per Year
$
Millions
Active Installed Base Estimates
iPhone Active Base MU iPad Active Base MU
Mac Active Base MU iPod Touch Active Base MU
Services Rev/Device $/Yr Other Prods Rev/Device $/Yr
Aquilla
Geo Revenue and 12m Trailing
Slowing in Key Regions
•Trailing 12 months shows clearly why
Peak Apple has been called, as the US
and China head down
•China’s reversal is particularly sharp,
and in this fickle market
•China’s closure of the iBooks and
iTune Movies Stores is potentially
very significant - how this resolves
itself is a pointer to Apple’s future
trajectory in this market, though
Apple’s investment in Didi may
counter-balance this
•EMEIA remains flat - much depends
on the impact of Brexit in the short
term, and on South Asia (India - the ‘I’
in EMEIA) in the medium term
•Japan ticked up a noticeably, with no
reasons shared
•APAC is bouncing along in slow
decline
Tracking the trailing 12 months (current and 3
previous Quarters) eliminates seasonality, and
gives a better indication of the longer term trends
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Q1
'11
Q2
'11
Q3
'11
Q4
'11
Q1
'12
Q2
'12
Q3
'12
Q4
'12
Q1
'13
Q2
'13
Q3
'13
Q4
'13
Q1
'14
Q2
'14
Q3
'14
Q4
'14
Q1
'15
Q2
'15
Q3
'15
Q4
'15
Q1
'16
Q2
'16
Q3
'16
Q4
'16
Revenue
$M
Geo Revenue and 12m Trailing Revenue
APAC Japan Greater China EMEIA Americas
APAC 12m Trailing Japan 12m Trailing Greater China 12m Trailing EMEIA 12m Trailing Americas 12m Trailing
Source: Apple Results
Aquilla
Competitive Landscape - Smartphones
Chinese Brands continue the Great Leap Forward
•IDC sees Samsung retaining the top global slot, with a strong quarter,
gaining share
•Apple’s challenges are visible, declining 15 points more than the market
•Huawei continues to gain, with 58% growth, and a clear #3 rank
•OPPO and vivo entered the charts, both domestic Chinese brands starting
to branch out into Asia, and both still showing stunning growth
•With the overall market flat the undifferentiated Android space could get
brutal, as it already has for HTC, ZTE and even Xiaomi
Q2’16 M Q2’16% Q2’15 M Q2’15% Change
Samsung 77.0 22.4% 73.0 21.3% 5.5%
Apple 40.4 11.8% 47.5 13.9% -15.0%
Huawei 32.1 9.4% 29.6 8.6% 8.4%
OPPO 22.6 6.6% 9.6 2.8% 136.6%
vivo 16.4 4.8% 9.1 2.7% 80.2%
Others 154.8 45.1% 173.6 50.7% -10.8%
Total 343.3 100.0% 342.4 100.0% 0.3%
Q2 2016 Smartphone Units (IDC)
Source: IDC Source: Apple, IDC
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16
GrowthShare
iPhone Share and Growth vs Market
iPhone Smartphone Share iPhone Units YoY Growth Smartphones YoY Growth
Aquilla
Competitive Landscape - Tablets
Apple Declining less than the Market
•Apple held on to top slot, and gained a little share
•Focus has switched strongly to enterprise, with Apple’s partnerships with
IBM, SAP and Cisco touted strongly, and the iPad Pro important
•Lenovo has secured third place, and is the standard bearer for Windows
10 tablets
•Huawei also continues to make waves in tablets
•Amazon surged again, and may yet become a force to be acknowledged,
especially if it succeeds in capturing significant developer interest
Q2’16 M Q2’16% Q2’15 M Q2’15% Change
Apple 10.0 25.8% 11.0 24.9% -9.2%
Samsung 6.0 15.6% 8.0 18.2% -24.5%
Lenovo 2.5 6.6% 2.5 5.6% 3.1%
Huawei 2.2 5.6% 1.3 2.9% 71.0%
Amazon 1.6 4.0% 0.1 0.3% 1208.9%
Others 16.4 42.4% 21.3 48.2% -22.9%
Total 38.7 100.0% 44.1 100.0% -12.3%
Q2 2016 Tablet Units (IDC)
Source: IDC Source: Apple, IDC
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16
GrowthShare
iPad Share and Growth vs Market
iPad Share iPad Units YoY Growth Tablets YoY Growth
Aquilla
Competitive Landscape - PCs
Apple Consolidates 4th Place
•IDC sees Mac slip to 5th place, with a decline greater
than the market’s 4.5%
•Apple’s own numbers reported an 11% decline, which
reflects continued channel inventory reduction (IDC
measure Sell Through)
•Mac needs another round of magic for both the
MacBook Air and MacBook Pro, which are looking old
Q2’16 M Q2’16% Q2’15 M Q2’15% Change
Lenovo 13,202 21.2% 13,511 20.7% -2.3%
HP Inc 12,964 20.8% 12,330 18.9% 5.1%
Dell 9,963 16.0% 9,560 14.6% 4.2%
ASUS 4,518 7.2% 4,285 6.6% 5.4%
Apple 4,420 7.1% 4,820 7.4% -8.3%
Others 17,297 27.7% 20,791 31.8% -16.8%
Total 62,363 100.0% 65,296 100.0% -4.5%
Q2 2016 PC Units (IDC)
Source: Apple, IDCSource: IDC
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16
GrowthShare
Mac Share and Growth vs Market
Mac Share Mac Units YoY Growth PCs YoY Growth
Aquilla
Apple’s Q3 2016 Results Analysis
These popular slides cover an in-depth analysis of
Apple’s important Q3 2016 results
The slides shown are a subset
To receive the full set, including
additional slides, charts, commentary, interpretation and outlook
plus all slides in full colour
contact
Aquilla Europe
nick@aquilla-europe.com
Aquilla
Nick Graves, CEO • nick@aquilla-europe.com • +44 780 225 6536
Aquilla Europe Ltd • Kennett Cottage • OX9 3QS • UK • www.aquilla-europe.com
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Apple q3'16 commentary reduct

  • 1. Aquilla Apple Results Q3 2016 Summary and Commentary Note: Apple Q3 ≈ Calendar Q2 These data are derived from results published by Apple, Inc., from the published results of other companies, and from assorted independent analysts, as identified in the slides. The opinions are those of the author, and should in no way be interpreted as investment advice.
  • 2. Aquilla Narrative Apple Summary •“Stronger customer demand and business performance than we anticipated” - Tim Cook •“Revenue was near the high end of our guidance and gross margin at the top of our guidance” - Tim Cook •“We saw tremendous performance from our Services businesses, which saw broad-based growth” - Tim Cook
 Wall Street Response •Surprise! •Numbers beat expectations almost across the board •Only Services and Mac fell short, narrowly, plus iPhone ASP was lower than expected (iPhone SE impact) •Share price gained around 5% after the announcements
 Analyst Response •Beat expectations, but still reported declines in most metrics •Guidance for Q4 is stronger than expected, but gross margins lower •China a concern - 33% YoY decline. Strong results from weak countries (Ru, Br, Tr, In), with Japan a highlight •Where is all the R & D money being spent?
  • 3. Aquilla Key Data Points - Q3 2016 Wall Street † Reported YoY Revenue $ 42.1 B $ 42.4 B -15% Net Income $ 7.8 B -27% EPS (Diluted) $1.39 $1.42 -23% iPhone Units 39.9 M 40.4 M -15% iPhone ASP $606 $595 -10% iPad Units 9.1 M 10.0 M -9% Mac Units 4.4 M 4.3 M -11% Watch Units 2.0 M Not reported Not reported Services $ $ 6.1 B $ 6.0 B + 19% Other Products $ $ 2.2 B $ 2.2 B -16% Gross Margin 37.9% 38.0% - 1.7 points Cash & Long Term Securities $ 232 B -1% * Q3 Revenue Guidance $ 45.1 B $ 45.5 - 47.5 B FY15: $ 51.5 B Q3 Gross Margin Guidance 38.4% 37.5-38.0% FY15: 39.9% * QoQ† Fortune, Bloomberg, Others
  • 4. Aquilla Quarterly Revenue Second Decline •Revenues of $42.4B declined by 15% YoY, but were within Apple’s April guidance, and above the consensus, which expected $42.1B •This was however still on the back of very strong comps in 2015 (ie 13% up on Q3 2014) •Channel inventories also fell, especially on iPhone •These revenues are still nearly double those of Samsung Mobile, Alphabet and Microsoft. •Guidance for FQ3 of $45.5-47.5B was weak, implying a midpoint decline of 10% YoY Comparative Revenues CQ2 2016 SamsungElectronics Microsoft Alphabet SamsungMobile -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Revenue Growth (%) Revenue (B$) Apple Revenue Revenue B$ Revenue YoY Growth Source: Company Results
  • 5. Aquilla Net Income and Growth Sharp Decline •Net income declined 27% to $7.8B •This decline was anticipated •Apple’s net income still dwarfs other tech companies: •1.5x Samsung Electronics •1.5x Alphabet •3x Samsung Mobile •2.5x Microsoft Comparative Net Income CQ1 2016 Alphabet Microsoft SamsungMobile(OpIncm) SamsungElectronics -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 0 5 10 15 20 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Net Income Growth (%) Net Income ($B) Apple Net Income Net Income B$ Net Income YoY Growth Source: Company Results
  • 6. Aquilla Net Income, Margin and Tax Income Declined, Tax Steady •A further drop in net margin to 18%, the lowest since 2008 •This and the Gross Margin figures were put down primarily to iPhone mix and inventory adjustments •Apple’s net tax rate held steady at 26% of Net Income before tax 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Tax Rate, Net Margin (%) Tax, Net Income ($B) Apple Net Income, Margin, Tax Net Income B$ Tax B$ Net Income % Net Tax % Source: Apple Results
  • 7. Aquilla Cash, Investments & Capital Return Cash Machine Still Delivering •Apple generated $10.6B of cash from operations in the quarter •The company returned $13.1B to shareholders, mostly through Stock Repurchases ($10.0B), which offer Apple greater flexibility than dividends •Long and short term cash holdings declined by $1.4B in the quarter, and the company has a still incredible $232B in cash •The share of cash held outside the US, for tax reasons, grew again, to 93% of the whole ($215B): Apple is borrowing in the US to fund the capital return programme, with a new round in July at even better rates Source: Apple Results 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 50 100 150 200 250 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Ex-US % (B$) Apple Cash & Capital Return Short Term Cash B$ Long Term Cash B$ Cash Generated B$ Capital Return B$ Non-US Held Cash %
  • 8. Aquilla Debt Growth Long Term Debt Grows •Apple’s overseas-held cash would trigger substantial tax liabilities if repatriated, so the capital return programme of stock purchases and dividends is being funded largely through debt •Most of this has been placed in the US, though increasingly other markets are being tapped •Total long term debt held steady during the quarter at $72B, equivalent to 31% of long term cash •A further round of $7B has since been placed by Apple, at advantageous rates •In the current low-interest financial climate this strategy has good logic, but it would seem important that Apple pays careful attention to the balance between these two figures, especially as headwinds mount for the core business 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 50 100 150 200 250 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Long Term Debt %(B$) Apple Debt Share of Cash Total Cash B$ Long Term Debt B$ Long Term Debt % Source: Apple Results
  • 9. Aquilla Capital Expenditure Apple Invests •Apple’s capital expenditure leapt in 2012, more than doubling the 2011 figure, to $10.3B •It seems likely that this reflected the build out of iCloud data centres, and a dramatic increase in tooling placed in suppliers’ facilities •Outlook for 2016 was for another jump, to $15B, now reduced to $13B, (possibly due to delays in the planned Irish data centre), to cover: “product tooling and manufacturing process equipment; data centres; corporate facilities and infrastructure, including information systems hardware, software and enhancements; and retail store facilities” •The purchase of land for the new corporate campus took place in 2011, but the main CapEx for the site will fall in 2016 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 FY '11 FY '12 FY '13 FY '14 FY '15 FY'16 3Q CapEx vs Revenue (%) CapEx ($M) Apple Capital Expenditure Capital Expenditure M$ CapEx % of Revenue Source: Apple Results
  • 10. Aquilla Research & Development Upward Trend •Apple has not traditionally been a big spender on R&D, preferring smaller focused teams •However R&D spend has been rising in recent quarters, from around 2.2% to nearly 5% of revenue annualised, and 6% in Q3 •This appears to be deliberate, with Cook stating: “it is for products we are shipping, and ones we are not shipping. I will not talk about the split.” •This quarter saw R&D spend jump again to $2.6B, 26% up on Q3 2015, taking the spend to 4.6% of 12 month average quarterly revenues R&D $ R&D % Samsung Electronics $ 3.2 B 6.5% Microsoft $ 3.0 B 12.9% Google $ 3.1 B 16.4% Intel $ 3.0 B 21.9% R&D Spend (Avg/Qtr 2015, % of Rev) Quarterly R&D is here tracked against average 12 month trailing revenues to reflect the non-seasonal nature of R&D spend 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 R&D vs Rev 12m Trlg (%) R&D Spend ($M) Apple Research & Development R&D M$ R&D % of 12m Avg Rev Source: Apple Results
  • 11. Aquilla Inventory Inventory Stable •Apple’s miracle inventory management continues, ending the quarter with 3.9 days of stock, a small downtick from Q2 •This is 93 annual stock turns! •And this despite having 484 retail stores at quarter end, with product on the shelves •For comparison, Samsung Electronics reports typically over 30 days of stock (32 in CQ2 2016) •For a technology, company being able to manage stock this efficiently is a huge asset •It is driven by Apple’s very tough supplier negotiations, which smaller players will always struggle to match •Channel inventory was reported to have been reduced, particularly for iPhone, and sits at the low side of Apple’s targets 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Days of Stock Inventory (M$) Apple Inventory Inventory M$ Days of Stock Source: Apple Results
  • 12. Aquilla Revenue by Product Line Apple Still a Phone Company •iPhone’s dominance continues despite it losing 23% by value, (and 15% by units) YoY •iPhone seasonality remains marked, a function both of market and launch cycles •All the main Geos other than Japan saw iPhone declines, but inventory reduction of 4m units compared favourably with 0.5M reduction in Q3’15, implying that sell through was down only 8% in units •iPhone SE has been very strong, both with switchers and upgraders •42% smartphone penetration leaves still a huge opportunity •iPhone dominates such that the other product lines are expanded on the next slide, for better visibility Services: Music, App, Mac App & iBooks Stores, AppleCare, Apple Pay, licensing, other services Other Products: Watch, iPod, Apple TV, Apple-branded, Beats and third-party accessories 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Revenue (M$) Product Line Revenue Streams iPhone M$ iPad M$ Mac M$ Services M$ Other Products M$ Source: Apple Results
  • 13. Aquilla Revenue by Product Line (rescaled) Services Bright Spot •Services continued their inevitable growth, moving to become Apple’s second largest product category, with 14% share. (Note $0.5B one-off royalties reported in Q1) •This was across the board, with App Store growing 37%, and a new record for iTunes revenues •Mac had another weak quarter, with 11% YoY unit and 13% revenue decline •IDC reports sell-through, and saw a 4.5% decline in the PC market, and marked Apple with a loss in share for the first time in many years •iPad returned to dollar growth, gaining 7% YoY though declining 9% in units, suggesting success with the iPad Pro into enterprise •Other Products includes the Watch, and declined 16% YoY, the first comparable quarter since the launch Services: Music, App, Mac App & iBooks Stores, AppleCare, Apple Pay, licensing, other services Other Products: Watch, iPod, Apple TV, Apple-branded, Beats and third-party accessories 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Revenue (M$) Product Line Revenue Streams (rescaled) iPhone M$ iPad M$ Mac M$ Services M$ Other Products M$ IB Services M$ Source: Apple Results
  • 14. Aquilla iPhone - Losing Share Source: Apple Results, IDC -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 YoY Growth Q Units (000s) iPhone Growth vs Market iPhone Units kU iPhone Units YoY Growth Smartphones YoY Growth
  • 15. Aquilla iPad - Turned the Corner? Source: Apple Results, IDC -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 YoY Growth Q Units (000s) iPad Growth vs Market iPad Units kU iPad Units YoY Growth Tablets YoY Growth
  • 16. Aquilla Mac - Lost Some Share -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Yoy Growth Units (000s) Mac Growth vs Market Mac Units kU Mac Units YoY Growth PCs YoY Growth Source: Apple Results, IDC
  • 17. Aquilla Services - Steady Gains Tracking the trailing 12 months (current and 3 previous Quarters) eliminates seasonality, and gives a better indication of the longer term trends Source: Apple ResultsServices: Music, App, Mac App & iBooks Stores, AppleCare, Apple Pay, licensing, other services 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 24,000 28,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Trailing 12m Revenue ($M) Revenue ($M) Services Revenue Patent Fees M$ Services M$ Services Trailing 12m M$
  • 18. Aquilla Apple Watch Estimates Apple Watch Estimates •Watch attracted no analyst questions, which may be significant, but indications are of steady growth •Reviewing the likely trends for the main product groups reported in Other Products suggests a figure of $1,258M ex the Watch •This suggests Apple Watch revenues of $961M •Unit estimates depend on the ASP •At $350: Watch sold 2,745kU •At $400: Watch sold 2,402kU •At $450: Watch sold 2,135kU •At $500: Watch sold 1,922kU •At $550: Watch sold 1,747kU •The most likely scenario is modelled on a mix dropping to 64% Sport and 36% Watch, which suggests an ASP of $470 •Hence Q3 Watch sales amounted to 2,043kU •Cumulative Watch Sales add up to 12,476kU Tracking the trailing 12 months (current and 3 previous Quarters) eliminates seasonality, and gives a better indication of the longer term trends Source: Apple Results, Aquilla Estimates 1,081 1,527 2,053 909 961 0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Trailing 12m Revenue ($M) Revenue ($M) Other Products Revenue - Watch Estimates Others Ex Watch Estimate M$ Watch Estimate M$ Other Products Trailing 12m M$ iPod Trailing 12m M$
  • 19. Aquilla Active Installed Base Growth and Revenues Over 1B Active Devices •Apple announced passing 1 billion active devices in Q1’16, and 1 billion iPhones during July, and this was reflected in continuing growth in Services •A number of considered estimates are used to derive this chart - unlikely to be perfect, but it does give an indication of the trends for iOS and Mac, plus the revenues per active device •Note: these numbers include all Services revenue, including Music revenues on other platforms (PCs), and those linked to device purchase, such as AppleCare, while only counting Apple hardware units Source: Apple Results, Aquilla EstimatesServices: Music, App, Mac App & iBooks Stores, AppleCare, Apple Pay, licensing, other services 0.0 6.0 12.0 18.0 24.0 30.0 36.0 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 FY '11 FY '12 FY '13 FY '14 FY '15 FY'16 3Q Revenue per Device per Year $ Millions Active Installed Base Estimates iPhone Active Base MU iPad Active Base MU Mac Active Base MU iPod Touch Active Base MU Services Rev/Device $/Yr Other Prods Rev/Device $/Yr
  • 20. Aquilla Geo Revenue and 12m Trailing Slowing in Key Regions •Trailing 12 months shows clearly why Peak Apple has been called, as the US and China head down •China’s reversal is particularly sharp, and in this fickle market •China’s closure of the iBooks and iTune Movies Stores is potentially very significant - how this resolves itself is a pointer to Apple’s future trajectory in this market, though Apple’s investment in Didi may counter-balance this •EMEIA remains flat - much depends on the impact of Brexit in the short term, and on South Asia (India - the ‘I’ in EMEIA) in the medium term •Japan ticked up a noticeably, with no reasons shared •APAC is bouncing along in slow decline Tracking the trailing 12 months (current and 3 previous Quarters) eliminates seasonality, and gives a better indication of the longer term trends 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Q1 '11 Q2 '11 Q3 '11 Q4 '11 Q1 '12 Q2 '12 Q3 '12 Q4 '12 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4 '13 Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 Q4 '16 Revenue $M Geo Revenue and 12m Trailing Revenue APAC Japan Greater China EMEIA Americas APAC 12m Trailing Japan 12m Trailing Greater China 12m Trailing EMEIA 12m Trailing Americas 12m Trailing Source: Apple Results
  • 21. Aquilla Competitive Landscape - Smartphones Chinese Brands continue the Great Leap Forward •IDC sees Samsung retaining the top global slot, with a strong quarter, gaining share •Apple’s challenges are visible, declining 15 points more than the market •Huawei continues to gain, with 58% growth, and a clear #3 rank •OPPO and vivo entered the charts, both domestic Chinese brands starting to branch out into Asia, and both still showing stunning growth •With the overall market flat the undifferentiated Android space could get brutal, as it already has for HTC, ZTE and even Xiaomi Q2’16 M Q2’16% Q2’15 M Q2’15% Change Samsung 77.0 22.4% 73.0 21.3% 5.5% Apple 40.4 11.8% 47.5 13.9% -15.0% Huawei 32.1 9.4% 29.6 8.6% 8.4% OPPO 22.6 6.6% 9.6 2.8% 136.6% vivo 16.4 4.8% 9.1 2.7% 80.2% Others 154.8 45.1% 173.6 50.7% -10.8% Total 343.3 100.0% 342.4 100.0% 0.3% Q2 2016 Smartphone Units (IDC) Source: IDC Source: Apple, IDC -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 GrowthShare iPhone Share and Growth vs Market iPhone Smartphone Share iPhone Units YoY Growth Smartphones YoY Growth
  • 22. Aquilla Competitive Landscape - Tablets Apple Declining less than the Market •Apple held on to top slot, and gained a little share •Focus has switched strongly to enterprise, with Apple’s partnerships with IBM, SAP and Cisco touted strongly, and the iPad Pro important •Lenovo has secured third place, and is the standard bearer for Windows 10 tablets •Huawei also continues to make waves in tablets •Amazon surged again, and may yet become a force to be acknowledged, especially if it succeeds in capturing significant developer interest Q2’16 M Q2’16% Q2’15 M Q2’15% Change Apple 10.0 25.8% 11.0 24.9% -9.2% Samsung 6.0 15.6% 8.0 18.2% -24.5% Lenovo 2.5 6.6% 2.5 5.6% 3.1% Huawei 2.2 5.6% 1.3 2.9% 71.0% Amazon 1.6 4.0% 0.1 0.3% 1208.9% Others 16.4 42.4% 21.3 48.2% -22.9% Total 38.7 100.0% 44.1 100.0% -12.3% Q2 2016 Tablet Units (IDC) Source: IDC Source: Apple, IDC -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 GrowthShare iPad Share and Growth vs Market iPad Share iPad Units YoY Growth Tablets YoY Growth
  • 23. Aquilla Competitive Landscape - PCs Apple Consolidates 4th Place •IDC sees Mac slip to 5th place, with a decline greater than the market’s 4.5% •Apple’s own numbers reported an 11% decline, which reflects continued channel inventory reduction (IDC measure Sell Through) •Mac needs another round of magic for both the MacBook Air and MacBook Pro, which are looking old Q2’16 M Q2’16% Q2’15 M Q2’15% Change Lenovo 13,202 21.2% 13,511 20.7% -2.3% HP Inc 12,964 20.8% 12,330 18.9% 5.1% Dell 9,963 16.0% 9,560 14.6% 4.2% ASUS 4,518 7.2% 4,285 6.6% 5.4% Apple 4,420 7.1% 4,820 7.4% -8.3% Others 17,297 27.7% 20,791 31.8% -16.8% Total 62,363 100.0% 65,296 100.0% -4.5% Q2 2016 PC Units (IDC) Source: Apple, IDCSource: IDC -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% -5% 0% 5% 10% Q1 '14 Q2 '14 Q3 '14 Q4 '14 Q1 '15 Q2 '15 Q3 '15 Q4 '15 Q1 '16 Q2 '16 Q3 '16 GrowthShare Mac Share and Growth vs Market Mac Share Mac Units YoY Growth PCs YoY Growth
  • 24. Aquilla Apple’s Q3 2016 Results Analysis These popular slides cover an in-depth analysis of Apple’s important Q3 2016 results The slides shown are a subset To receive the full set, including additional slides, charts, commentary, interpretation and outlook plus all slides in full colour contact Aquilla Europe nick@aquilla-europe.com
  • 25. Aquilla Nick Graves, CEO • nick@aquilla-europe.com • +44 780 225 6536 Aquilla Europe Ltd • Kennett Cottage • OX9 3QS • UK • www.aquilla-europe.com