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Status and development in
salmonid feed production 2012
Havbrukskonferansen 22. November 2011
Kjell Bjordal
Head EWOS Group/COO Feed Cermaq
Agenda

• Intro to Cermaq and EWOS

• Status & Outlook in feed- and
  raw material markets

• The value of growth
  – Use of functional feed in a low   Photograph: Tom Haga



    salmon price market




                                      Photograph: Ragge Strand
This is Cermaq
   A global leader in the aquaculture industry

   Two business units; EWOS and Mainstream

   EWOS: The world’s 2nd largest producer of salmonid feed
    – market share of app. 35 %
      Sales 2010: 876.000 tons
      Sales 2011E: > 1 mill tons

   Mainstream: A leading salmon farming company
      Sales 2010: 97.000 tons (gwe)
      Sales 2011E: 105.000 tons (gwe)

   Total EBIT 2010 NOK mill 1.439

   Approx 3.500 employees

   Operations in Norway, Chile, Canada , Scotland and
    Vietnam

    3
• Operations in Norway, Canada, Chile, Scotland, Vietnam
    –       7 factories globally; 875 employees
    –       21 feed production lines


•   Increased attention on functional feeds
    –       Ensure healthy fish and improved growth

• Extensive R&D through Ewos Innovation
    –       Fish nutrition, Raw materials, Fish performance and health
    –       3 locations, 80 People, NOK 80 mill per year in R&D

                               1000
                                900
             thousand tonnes




                                800
                                700
                                600
                                500
                                400
                                300
                                200
                                100
                                  0
                                      1990
                                      1991
                                      1992
                                      1993
                                      1994
                                      1995
                                      1996
                                      1997
                                      1998
                                      1999
                                      2000
                                      2001
                                      2002
                                      2003
                                      2004
                                      2005
                                      2006
                                      2007
                                      2008
                                      2009
                                      2010




        4
                                       EWOS   NorAqua /FK
Status & Outlook in

feed- and raw material markets




                           5
Development in feed markets

                       2006      2007           2008           2009            2010       2011E            2012E
    Norway           933 800 1 083 000 16 % 1 136 700 5 % 1 302 500 15 % 1 307 500 0 % 1 463 000      12 % 1 531 600    5%
    Chile          1 006 300 1 082 400 8 % 1 018 200 -6 % 594 000 -42 % 698 400 18 % 926 400          33 % 934 100      1%
    UK               194 800 211 300 8 % 201 300 -5 % 207 400 3 % 207 500 0 % 221 400                  7 % 218 700     -1 %
    North America    194 200 201 400 4 % 193 800 -4 % 191 500 -1 % 204 900 7 % 191 700                -6 % 193 500      1%
    Faraoe Islands    28 900    45 600 58 %    59 700 31 %    62 200 4 %      61 700 -1 %    81 300   32 %    84 700    4%
    Total          2 358 000 2 623 700 11 % 2 609 700 -1 % 2 357 600 -10 % 2 480 000 5 % 2 883 800    16 % 2 962 600    3%



Source Kontali Nov 2011


• Global feed sales in 2012 influenced by
      –       Salmon price development
      –       MTB limitations impact on harvest volume in 2H 2012
      –       Changes in biological conditions


• Chilean feed suppliers indicate higher growth in Chile than Kontali

          6
Fishmeal production development
                3


               2,5


                2
Million tons




               1,5

                                                       2010
                1
                                                       2011E
               0,5                                     2012E

                0




                                             Source IFFO 2011


                     7
Fishoil production development

               0,8

               0,7

               0,6

               0,5
Million tons




               0,4

               0,3                            2010
               0,2
                                              2011E
                                              2012E
               0,1

                   0




                                 Source IFFO 2011


               8
General vegetable market trends

• We expect stable and sufficient supply of soy, both for GM and non-
  GM qualities
• Speculators seem to withdraw cash from traded commodities
• Use of biofuel will influence total world demand, will subsidies for non
  fossil fuel be withdrawn in current financial markets?
• Fish feed is a price taker for vegetable raw materials
• Advanced formulation capabilities for feed, make feed manufacturers
  less and less susceptible for price fluctuations on individual raw
  materials




  9
Conclusion: Less volatility in and more stable
raw material pricing expected for the next
quarters
Raw Material Prices
(USD/tonne)
                                                                        •   Fish quotas already set in Peru, fish meal
 2000                                                                       production is expected to stabilize on 2,5
 1800                                                                       mill tons, significantly higher than 2010
 1600
 1400                                                                   •   Chinese demand drive markets, but the
 1200
 1000
                                                                            Chinese users seem to have established
  800                                                                       a substitution competence balancing
  600
  400
                                                                            growth in demand
  200                                                                   •   In conclusion; fish meal prices stable or
    0
        2008     2009                   2010             2011
                                                                            slightly downwards
                Fishmeal Peru, FOB             Soymeal extracted, FOB
                                                                        •   Vegetable proteins expected to maintain
                Fish Oil Scandinavia, CIF      Vegetable Oil, FOB           stable or slightly downward prices in 2012
                                                                            unless extreme weather conditions occur
                                                                        •   Vegetable oils: Crops have been good –
                                                                            importance of substitutes for rape oil as
                                                                            biodiesel have been significant. Uncertain
Main uncertainty is currency development                                    trend, but no dramatic price changes
                                                                            expected

                                                                                            10
The value of growth

  Use of functional feed in a

   low salmon price market

Faster growth / more resistant fish


                             11
Functional feed improve fish performance
 –    EWOS adapt – designed for fish to cope with transition from FW to SW;
      functional components to increase the ability to handle new pathogens in a
      new environment and fatty acid profile to benefit a good/even smoltification
 –    EWOS robust – strengthens and optimises immune response of the fish.
      Contains a functional component which makes salmon less attractive to
      sea lice by masking the salmon host odors and a powerful immune
      stimulant and boost to prepare the fish against pathogens
 –    EWOS synergy – new base for medicated feed
 –    EWOS alpha – clinical diet for fish suffering from Pancreas disease
 –    EWOS opal 120 with boost-contains boost and prebiotica to strengthen
      the fish




 12
Value of growth

• Feed contributes to almost 50 % of salmon production cost
• Choice of feed determines not only feed cost, but also growth rate
• Advanced feed is here a Functional feed, low cost a reformulated feed




  Cost distribution for 5.5 kilo live   Growth patterns for advanced,
  weight salmon fed on standard         standard and low cost feed
  feed

                                                                    13
What is the value of growth?
Our model use following input parameters

 • Production parameters (feed dependent)
   –   Growth rate and size distribution
   –   Production time
   –   Mortality
   –   Feed conversion ratio (FCR)


 • Economical parameters
   –   Smolt cost
   –   Feed cost
   –   Salmon price per size interval
   –   Cost of transport, slaughting & packing
   –   Capital interests – capital cost
   –   Other variable costs
   –   Fixed costs


                                                 14
At low salmon prices;
will EWOS functional grower feeds still be more beneficial
than standard feeds?

• Currently many salmon
  farms see productions
  costs about 25 NOK/kg
• Benefit of increasing
  production volume by
  using EWOS functional
  grower feeds is
  maintained for prices
  far below break even
  costs (25-13nok/kg), as
  higher sales volumes
  increases the cash flow
  to cover fixed costs

   15
Benefits of using EWOS functional health feeds


• Additional cost of using EWOS suggested functional feed
  program through a life cycle approximates 250
  KNOK/production site (MTB)

• Such additional cost will be covered by reducing the need
  of medicated de-licing with only one treatment
  (approximate costs from 300 – 1,000 KNOK/site,
  depending on method)

• -or by improving survival by only 2% at salmon prices of
  22 NOK/kg)
  16
Customer experiences with EWOS functional
feeds against sea lice in 2011

                         4,50
                                     EWOS robust    EWOS alpha        EWOS robust
                         4,00
Sea lice (individuals)




                         3,50


                         3,00


                         2,50


                         2,00
                                                                                           Lice numbers
                         1,50
                                                                                           Attached stages
                                                                                          Fastsittende


                         1,00
                                                                                           Mobile stages
                                                                                          Bevegelig


                         0,50                                                              Mature stages
                                                                                          Kjønnsmoden


                         0,00
                                15        19       23      27    31        35        39

                                                   Week number                  17
Are we living as we preach?

                                                             •   Continued significant
                                                                 use of EWOS
            MS Norway*                                           Functional Feed in
                                                                 Mainstream following
                                                                 Salmon price reduction




                              Functional Feed
                              Standard Feed


                                                MS Chile**


                                                                         Functional Feed
                                                                         Standard Feed



* Aug – Oct 2011 (Atlantic)
** YTD Oct 2011 (Atlantic)


       18
EWOS outlook
• Continued growth in Chile from increased
  salmon production
   –   Market growth 2011 maintained at 45 %
   –   Reduced growth rate for 2012
                                               Bilde
• Focus on fish performance and fish
  health expected to support continued
  large share of value added feed
• High raw material volatility to continue,
  but limited changes expected in Q4 2011

• Investments in all plants in Norway to
  increase capacity with 75 000 tonnes in
  time for peak season 2012

• Full year EBIT margin of 5-7 %
  maintained
20

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Status and development in salmonid feed production 2012

  • 1. Status and development in salmonid feed production 2012 Havbrukskonferansen 22. November 2011 Kjell Bjordal Head EWOS Group/COO Feed Cermaq
  • 2. Agenda • Intro to Cermaq and EWOS • Status & Outlook in feed- and raw material markets • The value of growth – Use of functional feed in a low Photograph: Tom Haga salmon price market Photograph: Ragge Strand
  • 3. This is Cermaq  A global leader in the aquaculture industry  Two business units; EWOS and Mainstream  EWOS: The world’s 2nd largest producer of salmonid feed – market share of app. 35 %  Sales 2010: 876.000 tons  Sales 2011E: > 1 mill tons  Mainstream: A leading salmon farming company  Sales 2010: 97.000 tons (gwe)  Sales 2011E: 105.000 tons (gwe)  Total EBIT 2010 NOK mill 1.439  Approx 3.500 employees  Operations in Norway, Chile, Canada , Scotland and Vietnam 3
  • 4. • Operations in Norway, Canada, Chile, Scotland, Vietnam – 7 factories globally; 875 employees – 21 feed production lines • Increased attention on functional feeds – Ensure healthy fish and improved growth • Extensive R&D through Ewos Innovation – Fish nutrition, Raw materials, Fish performance and health – 3 locations, 80 People, NOK 80 mill per year in R&D 1000 900 thousand tonnes 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 4 EWOS NorAqua /FK
  • 5. Status & Outlook in feed- and raw material markets 5
  • 6. Development in feed markets 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E Norway 933 800 1 083 000 16 % 1 136 700 5 % 1 302 500 15 % 1 307 500 0 % 1 463 000 12 % 1 531 600 5% Chile 1 006 300 1 082 400 8 % 1 018 200 -6 % 594 000 -42 % 698 400 18 % 926 400 33 % 934 100 1% UK 194 800 211 300 8 % 201 300 -5 % 207 400 3 % 207 500 0 % 221 400 7 % 218 700 -1 % North America 194 200 201 400 4 % 193 800 -4 % 191 500 -1 % 204 900 7 % 191 700 -6 % 193 500 1% Faraoe Islands 28 900 45 600 58 % 59 700 31 % 62 200 4 % 61 700 -1 % 81 300 32 % 84 700 4% Total 2 358 000 2 623 700 11 % 2 609 700 -1 % 2 357 600 -10 % 2 480 000 5 % 2 883 800 16 % 2 962 600 3% Source Kontali Nov 2011 • Global feed sales in 2012 influenced by – Salmon price development – MTB limitations impact on harvest volume in 2H 2012 – Changes in biological conditions • Chilean feed suppliers indicate higher growth in Chile than Kontali 6
  • 7. Fishmeal production development 3 2,5 2 Million tons 1,5 2010 1 2011E 0,5 2012E 0 Source IFFO 2011 7
  • 8. Fishoil production development 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 Million tons 0,4 0,3 2010 0,2 2011E 2012E 0,1 0 Source IFFO 2011 8
  • 9. General vegetable market trends • We expect stable and sufficient supply of soy, both for GM and non- GM qualities • Speculators seem to withdraw cash from traded commodities • Use of biofuel will influence total world demand, will subsidies for non fossil fuel be withdrawn in current financial markets? • Fish feed is a price taker for vegetable raw materials • Advanced formulation capabilities for feed, make feed manufacturers less and less susceptible for price fluctuations on individual raw materials 9
  • 10. Conclusion: Less volatility in and more stable raw material pricing expected for the next quarters Raw Material Prices (USD/tonne) • Fish quotas already set in Peru, fish meal 2000 production is expected to stabilize on 2,5 1800 mill tons, significantly higher than 2010 1600 1400 • Chinese demand drive markets, but the 1200 1000 Chinese users seem to have established 800 a substitution competence balancing 600 400 growth in demand 200 • In conclusion; fish meal prices stable or 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 slightly downwards Fishmeal Peru, FOB Soymeal extracted, FOB • Vegetable proteins expected to maintain Fish Oil Scandinavia, CIF Vegetable Oil, FOB stable or slightly downward prices in 2012 unless extreme weather conditions occur • Vegetable oils: Crops have been good – importance of substitutes for rape oil as biodiesel have been significant. Uncertain Main uncertainty is currency development trend, but no dramatic price changes expected 10
  • 11. The value of growth Use of functional feed in a low salmon price market Faster growth / more resistant fish 11
  • 12. Functional feed improve fish performance – EWOS adapt – designed for fish to cope with transition from FW to SW; functional components to increase the ability to handle new pathogens in a new environment and fatty acid profile to benefit a good/even smoltification – EWOS robust – strengthens and optimises immune response of the fish. Contains a functional component which makes salmon less attractive to sea lice by masking the salmon host odors and a powerful immune stimulant and boost to prepare the fish against pathogens – EWOS synergy – new base for medicated feed – EWOS alpha – clinical diet for fish suffering from Pancreas disease – EWOS opal 120 with boost-contains boost and prebiotica to strengthen the fish 12
  • 13. Value of growth • Feed contributes to almost 50 % of salmon production cost • Choice of feed determines not only feed cost, but also growth rate • Advanced feed is here a Functional feed, low cost a reformulated feed Cost distribution for 5.5 kilo live Growth patterns for advanced, weight salmon fed on standard standard and low cost feed feed 13
  • 14. What is the value of growth? Our model use following input parameters • Production parameters (feed dependent) – Growth rate and size distribution – Production time – Mortality – Feed conversion ratio (FCR) • Economical parameters – Smolt cost – Feed cost – Salmon price per size interval – Cost of transport, slaughting & packing – Capital interests – capital cost – Other variable costs – Fixed costs 14
  • 15. At low salmon prices; will EWOS functional grower feeds still be more beneficial than standard feeds? • Currently many salmon farms see productions costs about 25 NOK/kg • Benefit of increasing production volume by using EWOS functional grower feeds is maintained for prices far below break even costs (25-13nok/kg), as higher sales volumes increases the cash flow to cover fixed costs 15
  • 16. Benefits of using EWOS functional health feeds • Additional cost of using EWOS suggested functional feed program through a life cycle approximates 250 KNOK/production site (MTB) • Such additional cost will be covered by reducing the need of medicated de-licing with only one treatment (approximate costs from 300 – 1,000 KNOK/site, depending on method) • -or by improving survival by only 2% at salmon prices of 22 NOK/kg) 16
  • 17. Customer experiences with EWOS functional feeds against sea lice in 2011 4,50 EWOS robust EWOS alpha EWOS robust 4,00 Sea lice (individuals) 3,50 3,00 2,50 2,00 Lice numbers 1,50 Attached stages Fastsittende 1,00 Mobile stages Bevegelig 0,50 Mature stages Kjønnsmoden 0,00 15 19 23 27 31 35 39 Week number 17
  • 18. Are we living as we preach? • Continued significant use of EWOS MS Norway* Functional Feed in Mainstream following Salmon price reduction Functional Feed Standard Feed MS Chile** Functional Feed Standard Feed * Aug – Oct 2011 (Atlantic) ** YTD Oct 2011 (Atlantic) 18
  • 19. EWOS outlook • Continued growth in Chile from increased salmon production – Market growth 2011 maintained at 45 % – Reduced growth rate for 2012 Bilde • Focus on fish performance and fish health expected to support continued large share of value added feed • High raw material volatility to continue, but limited changes expected in Q4 2011 • Investments in all plants in Norway to increase capacity with 75 000 tonnes in time for peak season 2012 • Full year EBIT margin of 5-7 % maintained
  • 20. 20