June 2011 webinar presented with the Flextech Alliance on transparent conductor markets, ITO and alternatives

1. New Opportunities in the Transparent
Conductor Market:
A Webinar for the FlexTech Alliance
June 16, 2011
NanoMarkets
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© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC

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About NanoMarkets, LC
• NanoMarkets provides industry analysis of emerging markets in
energy and electronics enabled by new developments in materials
science. We have been providing insight into products and
strategies in transparent conductor markets for almost six years
• Our work includes market, company, and technology analysis,
market forecasting and due diligence. NanoMarkets provides
regular reports on transparent conductor markets with forecasts
and breakouts by application and type of materials used
• Offerings include reports, custom consulting, seminars/webinars
and in-house training. NanoMarkets is based in the U.S., with
extensive contacts all over the world. See www.nanomarkets.net for
details on our reports
NanoMarkets
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© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC www.nanomarkets.net

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Recent Related Reports from NanoMarkets
• The Business Case for Indium Tin Oxide and Alternative
Transparent Conductors
• Transparent Conductors for Displays: Market Opportunities
2011
• Transparent Conductors in Photovoltaics: Market
Opportunities 2011
• Transparent Conductor Markets in the OLED Industry 2011
and Beyond
• Transparent Conductor Markets 2010: ITO and the
Alternatives
NanoMarkets
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www.nanomarkets.net

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Plan of Our Webinar
• ITO under pressure: NanoMarkets’ TC forecasts
• Applications yet to come: TCs beyond displays
• Realistic expectations for ITO alternatives
• ITO on top: Just how dominant is ITO and why?
• Case history: PV-- an industry that has moved beyond ITO
• ITO alternatives: who supplies them, who uses them and why
• How to sell ITO alternatives
• Does material cost (i.e., the price of Indium) matter?
• A summing up
NanoMarkets
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© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC www.nanomarkets.net

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NanoMarkets
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© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC www.nanomarkets.net

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NanoMarkets
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© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC www.nanomarkets.net

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ITO on Top
• ITO is clearly the market leader among transparent
conductors for PV/displays
– 84 percent of coated substrate area for PV/displays
– 98 percent of material revenues
• Use is by far dominated by the display industry
– 93 percent of ITO is used for flat-panel displays
• This is despite ITO’s many negatives
– Cost and susceptibility to the indium price
– Lack of flexibility
NanoMarkets
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© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC www.nanomarkets.net

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Why ITO is Still Tops
• In most current applications, ITO has best combination of transparency
and conductivity. (But needs of large, flexible, and low-cost panels may
trump this)
• Has yet to be bested by an alternative. Only other TCOs (so far) have
sustained volume and supply chain
• Old ways die hard
– ITO integrated into fab processes
– Display industry is highly sensitive to disruptions in manufacturing
– Substantial manufacturing investments in the display industry are optimized for ITO-
coated substrates
• That’s why suppliers of ITO replacements are looking to new applications
. . . And they are finding them!
NanoMarkets
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© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC www.nanomarkets.net

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PV: An Industry that has Moved beyond ITO
TCO Penetration in TFPV,
Square Meters Basis
• More cost pressures than in the display
ITO
industry 37%
Other TCOs
• a-Si PV is split between ITO, FTO, and AZO 63%
2009
• CdTe PV (First Solar) uses FTO
– Ease of application directly onto glass for ITO
30%
transparent base electrode
Other TCOs
• CIGS PV: Most use AZO 2012
70%
– Transparent top electrode well-suited to AZO
ITO
20%
Other TCOs
80%
2015
© NanoMarkets, LC
NanoMarkets
thin film l organic l printable l electronics
© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC www.nanomarkets.net

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ITO alternatives: Who Supplies and Who Uses
Alternative Companies and Markets Comments
Other TCOs PV + OLEDs (Fraunhofer IPMS) “ITO light”! No sector leadership
Conductive Fujitsu and Kent Display using. Low performance, but could
polymers Agfa and Heraeus leaders nanostructures change that?
ITO inks Has been tried by Henkel, Ulvac, Low performance. Gone out of
KETI and especially Sumitomo fashion?
Nanosilver Cambrios, Cima NanoTech, Current wave of interest, but concerns
Carestream, and the others about processing costs and metals
Copper NanoForge Unproven
Carbon nanotubes Formerly Eikos and Unidym Now More going on behind the scenes but
C3Nano, Canatu, Toray, etc. separation problems
Graphene Graphene ink from Vorbeck Not ready for prime time
Metal grids PolyIC, CDT, Suzhou Nanogrid Great for large area panels
NanoMarkets
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© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC www.nanomarkets.net

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How to sell ITO alternatives
• The most important thing: Matching conductivity
and transparency to market niches
• Some stuff really doesn’t matter that much
– Tinges
– ITO old wives’ tales
• Processing costs
– Vital issue but hard to turn into a competitive advantage
for materials makers.
– Opportunity for equipment companies and OEMs
• Indium costs
NanoMarkets
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© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC www.nanomarkets.net

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Indium Costs – The Truth is Out There
• The China factor: Indium, nationalism and the need to
develop domestic high-tech markets
• Does the price of Indium matter?
– Yes. Most of the value of ITO
– No. Who cares in an $2,000 TV
– No. Indium is a tiny part of the total cost of ITO
• In need of a more careful economic analysis
– Indium price matters because people say its does!
– But ITO costs (not indium prices) is what really counts and ITO cost
models suggest it can be very important in BOMs
– No one has performed a dynamic analysis of the impact of indium
prices on ITO. So we don’t know the real answer (No good data on ITO
prices)
NanoMarkets
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www.nanomarkets.net

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A Summing Up
• ITO still outperforms alternatives and is grandfathered into the LCD
process. Little potential for alternatives as yet.
• Alternatives already better than ITO for large, flexible and low-cost
panels. Potential in touch panels, but addressable market not huge
• Number of alternatives increasing: TCOs, conductive polymers
(nanostructured?), carbon nanotubes, graphene, silver nanomaterials,
copper, metal grids
• Indium pricing does matter, but how much? We don’t know.
• When does the LCD market give in?
NanoMarkets
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© 2011, NanoMarkets, LC www.nanomarkets.net

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Contact Information
• NanoMarkets website: www.NanoMarkets.net
• NanoMarkets on Twitter: www.twitter.com/nanomarkets
• NanoMarkets Email: info@NanoMarkets.net
• NanoMarkets Telephone: 804-360-2967
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