This document summarizes the United Kingdom's energy generation outlook from 2014 to 2035 based on different scenarios. It finds that coal plant closures will be aggressive across scenarios, with gas generation increasing to fill the gap. Security of supply risks decrease by the mid-2020s due to capacity mechanisms. Import dependency in 2035 ranges widely from 40-90% depending on the role of domestic shale gas development. Technology options broaden beyond 2020.

1. Twitter: #ukenergy
email: transmission.ukfes@nationalgrid.com
Energy Supply
Marcus Stewart : Energy Supply Manager

2. X
Generation position 2014 vs 2013
2
Net Position -0.9 GW
But 3GW of new projects cancelled...
Closures -3.7 GW
Returns 2 GW
Openings 1.1 GW

3. 0
5
10
15
20
25
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
2024/25
2025/26
2026/27
2027/28
2028/29
2029/30
2030/31
2031/32
2032/33
2033/34
2034/35
2035/36
InstalledCapacityGW
GG14 SP14 NP14 LCL 14 Average Gas Increase
In all scenarios IED opt out plant
run down by early 2020’s
3
Aggressive closure
profile across all
scenarios with GG and
SP at lower end
Minimal amount of
plant remaining is
assumed to comply
with IED or be
converting to CCS
Early IED
opt out
The increase in gas
fired plant in order to
compensate for coal
closure profile
Coal

4. Security of supply outlook
4
LOLE*
Decreasing security of supply
Increasing security of supply
*Loss of Load Expectation (LoLE) is measurement of the risk to
consumers’ power supplies, and the Reliability Standard set by
government is the maximum acceptable value of LoLE.

5. Security of supply outlook
5
Mid decade products SBR and DSBR to address
EMR Capacity mechanism in place
LOLE

6. 2020 Generation mix
% 339 TWh 338 TWh 345 TWh 353 TWh
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
6

7. 2035 Generation mix
% 424 TWh 331 TWh 339 TWh 406 TWh
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
7

8. 8
Key Messages
Aggressive coal closure assumptions
Gas most likely to fill gap, but market intervention
needed
Beyond 2020 technology range broadens across the
scenarios

9. Shale - Hero or Zero?
9

10. 2035 Import dependency
10
90%40% 50% 70%

11. Low Carbon Life
11

12. No Progression
12

13. 13
Key Messages
Shale assumptions determine import dependency
Large variation across scenarios
Existing importation capacity can meet all scenarios