Patrick Elshof - And the winner of the Euro 2012 is...

Patrick Elshof
And the Euro 2012
winner is…

And the winner of the 14th EC is ….

Denmark Germany England Netherlands

France Spain Sweden Ukraine

Ireland Croatia Czech republic Poland

Greece Italy Russia Portugal

Home playing teams
• 13 tournaments
• Home playing finalists were in 1964, 1984 and
2004 (exception 1968)
• normally every 20 years the home playing
team is in the final
• We’ve to wait till 2024
• Poland and Ukraine  not winning EC 2012

Play offs
• Since 1996 there have been playoffs for qualifying
(except 2008)
• 1996  Netherlands
• 2000  England, Denmark, Slovenia, Turkey
• 2004  Netherlands, Croatia, Russia, Latvia,
Spain
• The winners of the play-offs never won the EC
• Czech republic, Ireland, Portugal and Croatia 
not winning the EC 2012

Best nr. 2 in Qualifying
• From 1960 till 1992 only the winner of the
groups went to EC
• Except 1992, because of the war in Yugoslavia,
for the first time the second placed team went
to EC  Denmark  winner 1992
• This was an exception, because Yugoslavia
qualified.
• The best nr. 2 has never won the EC
• Sweden  not winning EC 2012

Winners from 1960
• 1960 Soviet Union • 1988 Netherlands
• 1964 Spain • 1992 Denmark
• 1968 Italy • 1996 Germany
• 1972 West-Germany • 2000 France
• 1976 Czechoslovakia • 2004 Greece
• 1980 West-Germany • 2008 Spain
• 1984 France

New and old winners
• 1960 new • 1988 new
• 1964 new • 1992 new
• 1968 new • 1996 old
• 1972 new • 2000 old
• 1976 new • 2004 new
• 1980 old • 2008 old
• 1984 new
5 New – 1 Old – 3 New – 2 Old – 1 New -3 Old (2008-2016)
So there must be an old winner now
Russia and England  not winning EC 2012

Denmark
• 7 times played in EC
• 4 times not qualified for the next round
• 2 times failed in the next round
• 1 final, the year they didn’t qualify
• Denmark must wait till one country is
disqualified by UEFA
• Denmark  not winning EC 2012

Opening games and finals
• 7 times a country who played in the opening
game was also in the final (54% chance)
• Only in 2004 the opening game was also the
final (Portugal – Greece, 1-2 and 0-1)
• Only 3 times the host country won the EC
(23%) 1964, 1968 and 1984
• Opening game 2012  Poland - Greece

Chance being in opening game and
final facing countries
100% 18
100% 16 countries
90% 16

80%
14

Countries in EC
70%
12
60%
Chance

50% 10
50% Chance
8 Countries
40%
8 countries 6
30%
25% 4
20%
4 countries
10% 2

0% 0
1960-1976 1980-1992 1992-2008

Changes for Greece
• Greece has only been 3 times at the EC
(1980, 2004 and 2008)
• The performance was weak (2 times last in the
group, once EC)
• If they survive the group, the next round they
will meet nr. 2, 4, 5 or 9 from the FIFA list
• If they survive that round they’ll probably
meet the nr. 1 (Spain), 7 (England) or 12 (Italy)
• Greece  not winning 2012

End results in Pool C and D based on
history from 1996 till 2008
• Pool C; Ireland never been there, Croatia 2
times quarterfinal. Spain (winner 2008) and
Italy (runner-up 2000) are historically better
• Pool D; Ukraine never been there, Sweden
only in 2004 in quarter final. England and
France (winner 2000) are historically better

End Results Pool C and D based on
results in the past
• Pool C • Pool D
1. Spain 1. France
2. Italy 2. England
3. Croatia 3. Sweden
4. Ireland 4. Ukraine

Quarterfinals
Nr 1 C – nr. 2 D Spain – England
Nr 1 D – nr. 2 C France – Italy

Historically Spain is stronger, England have never been in
the final and Spain won twice (1964 and 2008). Spain is also
the WC (2010). England  not going to the semi-final

France – Italy ?
France (groupfase) Italy (groupfase)
• 2008, last • 2008, 2nd, quarterfinal
• 2004, 1st, quarterfinal Spain
Greece • 2004, 3rd
• 2000, 2nd, winner EC • 2000, 1st, final
• 1996, 1st, semi final • 1996, 3rd

Based on history
Both teams lost one time in the quarterfinal to the winner. In 2000 this
was the final and France won. In 2004 (Italy) and in 2008 (France) were
not good. Both were 1st in the qualifying group for EC 2012.
France will win, Italy  not winning EC 2012

Semi finals
• Pool B; Germany will be nr. 1 and Netherlands nr.
2 (based on results in the past, qualifying and
FIFA ranking)

Netherlands – Spain
Germany – France

• Never has the former winner reached the final
in the next EC
• Spain  not going to the final and not winning
EC 2012

Germany – France??
• Germany nr 2, France nr. 16 on the FIFA
ranking list
• Germany won all their games in the
qualifying, France lost once and drew 3
• Both countries have never met each other in
qualifying for EC or in the EC
• Germany, winner in 1996, runner-up 2008
• France  not going to the final and not
winning EC 2012

Final
Germany - Netherlands
2016 winner)
Germany - ?
20 1996 (winner)
Germany -
Czech rep.
Countries

15
2012 (runner-up)
1980 (winner) Germany -
Germany - Netherlands
10
Belgium
1992 (runner-up)
Germany -
5
Denmark Final
1976 (runner-up)
Countries
Germany -
0
Tsjechoslawakia
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Denmark Germany England Netherlands

Winner EC 2012
France Spain Sweden Ukraine

Ireland Croatia Czech republic Poland

Greece Italy Russia Portugal

Patrick Elshof - And the winner of the Euro 2012 is...

Recommandé

Recommandé

Contenu connexe

Plus de Nerd Nite Siem Reap

Plus de Nerd Nite Siem Reap (20)

Dernier

Dernier (20)

Patrick Elshof - And the winner of the Euro 2012 is...