1. What is the Mobility of the Future?
January 2012
Nicolas Meilhan
Principal Consultant, Frost & Sullivan, April 2016
2. 2
7 major challenges to be taken into account to develop the mobility of the future
2 global challenges - CO2 emissions & end of cheap oil, 3 local challenges – pollution,
congestion & parking and 2 economic challenges - unemployment & trade deficit
3 Local Challenges
Pollution Congestion Parking
2 Economic Challenges – rising unemployment & trade deficit
End of cheap oilCO2 emissions
2 Global Challenges
3. 3
The mobility of the future should improve our trade balance
Half of the €50 bn trade deficit increase from 2004 to 2016 is due to the decline of the French
automotive industry: +€13bn in 2004 to - €10bn in 2016
Source : http://lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr
Trade balance by sector from 2004 to 2016
- € billions-
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Energie
Industrie manufacturière (hors produits pétroliers et automobile)
Industrie automobile
Agriculture, silviculture, pêche et aquaculture
Tradebalance(€billions)
4. 4
The mobility of the future should also create jobs & reduce global CO2 emissions
Since 2000, 12 automotive assembly plant closed in Western Europe while 11 automotive
assembly plants opened in Eastern Europe where labour cost is lower but electricity dirtier
Labour cost
- Manufacturing industry, €/h -
5 €
10 €
15 €
20 €
25 €
30 €
35 €
40 €
45 €
Source : Coe – Rexecode, Eurostat, Inovev
Electricity production from coal
- % of total electricity production in 2012 -
1 %
5 %
10 %
15 %
20 %
25 %
30 %
35 %
40 %
45 %
Source : Worldbank
Manufacturing the vehicle of the future in a country using coal as its main source for
electricity production – Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Turkey or
Morocco – is not necessarily a good idea if we really care about climate change
5. 5
Is the electric car the mobility of the future?
We thought the issue was that the private car used gasoline or diesel and we made it electric.
What if the issue was that it is private?
Space occupied in a city street to transport 60 persons
6. 6
Is the private car the mobility of the future?
If these idiots would just take the bus, I could be home by now...
A 10% increase in the occupancy rate of our cars would be
sufficient to get rid of most of traffic jams
7. 7
Transport = Private Vehicle
• Freedom
• Convenience
• Status
• Progress
• No Real Alternative
Gen Y
Population
Growth
Energy /
Natural
Resources
Urbanisation
Technology/
Connectivity
Social
Responsibility
• New Vehicles : Electric bikes,
Electric cars, Electric scooters
• New Business Models
Vehicle sharing, Ride sharing
• New technologies
Internet, Geolocalisation,
Smartphones
Pollution
Congestion
Globalisation
Virtualisation
Transport = Shared Mobility
“People will always change for a better alternative”
Paradigm Shift from Private Transport to Shared Mobility
More than 75% of people live in a urban area where space is very limited
We can’t afford any more to all drive our private vehicle on our own when alternatives exists
The urban mobility of the future will be shared or won’t be at all!
Source: Frost & Sullivan
8. 8
How can we address our saturated yet underutilised road infrastructure issue?
More roads, smaller vehicles, more people per car or less cars
More Roads Smaller Vehicles
Less CarsMore People per Car
9. 9
Vehicle sharing - car, scooter & bike - is a great alternative for urban mobility...
... all the more as private car use is constrained in cities
ElectricConventional
Bike
Car
Bike Sharing Electric Bike Sharing
Electric Car SharingPeer-to-peer Car Sharing
Scooter
Source: Frost & Sullivan
10. 10
Ride sharing – taxi, public transport & car pooling - is also a great alternative
The combination of new technologies – internet, geo-localisation & smart phones – made those
alternatives much more user friendly then they used to be 15 years ago
“Planned” Car pooling
Instant
Short Distance
Planned
Long Distance
Higher Price per KM
Lower Price per KM
“On Demand” Car pooling
“Taxi” Services &
private chauffeurs
Public Transport
Source: Frost & Sullivan
11. 11
Small cars are not an option anymore - it is a necessity to preserve our mobility
While cheap oil availability is more and more constrained especially in Europe, it is high time to
develop small & light cars which are fuel efficient – 1l/100 km and affordable
Source: Gregory Launay
Liquid fuels extraction
- 1930 à 2050 -
• A 800 kg hybrid-air car would have a 2 L/100 km fuel consumption
• A 600 kg range extended electric vehicle would have a 1L/100 km fuel consumption
Significantly reduce vehicle weight is the most efficient way to reduce transportation
energy consumption, which depends for 97% on oil
Extractioninbillionsofoil
barrelsperyear
Peugeot BB1 Rex
Hybrid Air
Fuel consumption of a car vs. weight and
energy efficiency
12. 12
Is the driverless car the new mobility of the future after the electric car?
If it is small, electric, full and shared, why not?
Drive and Let Drive Concept
Can be manually driven or self-
driven by the vehicle
Predetermined A-to-B Personal Mobility with Route Inputs
Ideally suitable for Personal
Rapid Transit (PRT)
Ideally suitable for urban commuters
and people with special mobility needs
Fully-automated vehicles hold the potential for fundamental rethinking of vehicle designs.
For instance, partially collapsible vehicles also save parking space when not in motion
Autonomous Adaptive Mobility Vehicles
Source: Frost & Sullivan; MIRA Ltd
13. 13
What is the most efficient transport mode in a city?
Whether it is on the energy side or the physical footprint, the most efficient transport mode
in a city where space is limited are bus, scooters & bikes
Car
1,4 t 10 m2 1,3 person
>1000 kg & 7.7 m2 per person
Quadricycle
500 kg 3 m2 1 person
500 kg & 3 m2 per person
Bus
12 t 42 m2 30 persons
430 kg & 1.4 m2 per person
Scooter
125 kg 2 m2 1 person
125 kg & 2 m2 per person
Electric bike
20 kg 1 m2 1 person
20 kg & 1 m2 per person
Bike
10 kg 1 m2 1 person
10 kg & 1 m2 per person
Source: Frost & Sullivan, PREDIT, 6t - Bureau de Recherche.
Average speed in European cities (km/h)
5
15
16
18 19
17
14. 14
What are the most efficient solutions to address urban mobility challenges?
Restriction on car circulation, improved public transportation, dedicated lane for bus & bikes and
small fuel-efficient vehicles
European CountriesSolutions from China
Already
in place
Good
idea?
Feasible?Pollution Congestion Safety Parking
Quota on new vehicle
purchase
Restriction on
circulation
Increased parking
fees
Improved public
transportation
Dedicated lane for bus
& bikes
Government push for
car electrification
Small fuel-efficient
vehicles
15. 15
What does the mobility of the future look like?
David PodRide or Goliath Tesla?
Source: http://www.jmk-innovation.se/?lang=en
Technical
specifications
PodRide
Electric
bicycle-car
Tesla S
Autonomous
electric tank
PodRide vs.
Tesla S
Weight 70 kg 2 100 kg 30 times lighter
Dimensions
1.8 m x 0.75 m
1.35 m2
5 m x 2 m
10m2 7 times smaller
Top speed 25 km/h 225 km/h
10 times more
slowly
Power 250 W 235 kW
1000 times less
powerful
Battery capacity 0.7 kWh 70 kWh
100 times
smaller
Electric range 60 km 450 km 7 times lower
Price 3,000 € 80,000 €
25 times
cheaper
