1. Evolution:
Economic and Agriculture Development
in sub-Saharan Africa
Written by:
Dr. Giovanni Gasperoni
Tricia Bentley-Beal
Published February, 2011

3. Executive Summary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Agriculture is the backbone of overall growth for the majority of countries
in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and is essential for poverty reduction and food security in
the future. It is critical for countries in SSA to embrace the potential of agriculture as
a means to grow their economies, to become self-sufficient and to diminish the threat
of food insecurity. This potential will be limited if agricultural policies that have been
crafted by and for mature economies are adopted.
SSA is classified, in economic terms, as a developing region of the world. A strong ag-
riculture industry for SSA will not materialize without concerted and purposeful policy
action that is tailored to the current state of economic and infrastructure development.
Sound policy should be based on the true needs of a particular country or region of
the world -- designed to align with and support that specific economic development.
Many of the agricultural policies under consideration in Africa today are based on the
regulations of developed and industrialized countries. These may be appropriate for
SSA after 10-15 years of positive growth. These policies do not fully consider the
technological tools and infrastructure that is needed for Africa to grow in the near-
to mid-term.
Important Policy Categories for Economic Development in SSA:
I. Import Policy
II. Support and Development of Small Shareholder Farmers
III. Agriculture Education and R&D
IV. Empowering Agriculture Best Practices
V. Adaptation for Rain Fed Agriculture and Climate Change
SSA Today
Africa is the only continent where poverty has increased in absolute and relative
terms (Collier, Bottom Billion, 2007). One billion people live in Africa and 30% suffer
from chronic hunger. In SSA, 38% of children under 5 are permanently stunted as
a result of malnutrition (FAO, 2009).
In SSA lack of economic growth, based on a range of factors, has made this region
more dependent on food imports, which has made it much more vulnerable to the
shock of inflating food prices. The failure to grow economically has set back the de-
mographic transition that significantly lowered population growth rates in other parts
of the world. Low growth has aggravated the debt crisis and reduced domestic re-
sources for infrastructure, agricultural development, health, education and nutrition.
Business climates in Africa still rank low in international comparisons. Transport
costs are among the highest in the world. Electricity supplies are unreliable and
costly. Financial sectors are underdeveloped, reaching only a few clients with low
saving rates.
Private input and output markets remain under-developed and farmers continue to be
severely penalized by inadequate competition in these markets. Farmers are also sub-
jected to higher input prices and lower farm gate prices than in other regions of the
world. Finally, the resulting lack of infrastructure has made an agricultural adaptation
to evident climatic changes impossible (Binswanger-Mkhize, 2009).
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4. Executive Summary
Policy Evolution: Economic Development and Agriculture Industries
All countries of the world are in varying states of economic development. In some
regions, such as Europe and the United States, the state of agricultural evolution has
spanned the spectrum from subsistence farming to a mature state with near zero food
insecurity. In these mature environments consumer behavior is driven by choice and
they demand highly sophisticated, expensive food products.
In Europe, the agriculture industry and policies grew over time and as the region
developed. As in other parts of the world that have transitioned from developing to
developed economies, the pace of growth in Europe’s agricultural sector depended on
specific industrial, political and market conditions.
Europe is similar to Africa, in that the region is a conglomerate of many nations and
these nations continue to progress at differing levels of economic development. From
this perspective, history has proven that as a region develops economically, the most
important advances in agricultural production and development occur first at the na-
tional level (Lains and Pinilla, Agriculture and Economic Development in Europe Since
1870, 2009).
As a region develops economically, the relative importance of agriculture as an industry
tends to decline. The primary reason for this was shown by the 19th century German
statistician Ernst Engel, who discovered that as incomes increase, the proportion of
income spent on food declines. It follows from this that, as incomes increase, a smaller
fraction of the total resources of society is required to produce the amount of food
demanded by the population. This occurs through industrialization and consolidation
of the agriculture industry. The graph below demonstrates this evolution in the United
States, Germany and the United Kingdom between the years 1870 – 1990. As a point
of reference, 65-80% of the labor force in SSA is currently employed in agriculture
(International Food Policy Research Institute).
Sectoral Shares of Employment in the
Sectoral Shares of Employment in the
USA, the UK and Germany, 1870-1990
USA, the UK and Germany, 1870-1990
55
50
45
40
35
Percent
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1870
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1973
1990
Years
Germany UK USA
2 Source: DerivedDerived from Broadberry (1997b, 1997c, 1998)
Source: from Broadberry (1997b, 1997c, 1998)

5. Executive Summary
Agricultural policies also evolve as economies develop and the developmental needs
of a country or region evolve. We have witnessed this very clearly with the European
Union. Subsistence farming was still present across many parts of Europe up until
World War I. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was established as part of the
Treaty of Rome in 1957, which established the Common Market. In the beginning of
the Common Market, the original 6 member states maintained strong individual poli-
cies in their agricultural sectors. These policies were particularly evident in regards
to what was produced, the pricing of goods and how farming was organized.
Over time the member states wanted to advance towards the benefits of free-trade.
The only way to achieve this relationship was to begin to harmonize their policies. In
1962, three major principles were established as underlying elements of the CAP:
market unity, community preference and financial solidarity. Since then, the CAP has
been a central element in the European institutional system. In the beginning, the
CAP had a strong focus on traditional farm subsidies and on increasing production
to meet the demands for food.
In the early 1990s, the CAP placed a new emphasis on environmentally sound farm-
ing. Farmers had to look more to the market place, while receiving direct income aid,
and to respond to the public’s changing priorities. Additionally, a new rural develop-
ment policy encouraged many initiatives which helped farmers to restructure their
farms, to diversify and to improve their product marketing.
Current CAP policies are demand driven. They take consumers’ and taxpayers’
concerns, who are wealthy by world standards, fully into account. Today, farmers still
receive direct income payments to maintain income stability, but those who fail to meet
the production standard policies of CAP face reductions in their direct payments. CAP
policies in the new millennium are very much geared towards the consumer-driven
demands of a wealthy economy: environment, food safety, phyto-sanitary and animal
welfare standards.
Specific Policy for Regional Needs
In Europe, the status of economies varies among nations but these are largely growing
at a strong level or are mature. European farmers have benefited from decades of sup-
port that has provided subsidy and established markets, transportation and production
infrastructures. European farmers are in a better position to adopt and comply with
the mandated policies which restrict their operational practices.
Developing countries have different agricultural development needs and policy re-
quirements than mature countries. In developing countries and regions, particularly
SSA, there is generally a need to establish core infrastructures, educate industry
stakeholders and integrate best technologies with indigenous practices. Consumers
in developing economies, in many cases, are concerned about having the ability to
purchase enough food to feed themselves and their families.
The policies of mature countries are crafted against and relevant for an agriculture
industry that is well-established, well-tooled and highly functioning. These countries
have already moved through and past the state of development of SSA. Adopting
their policies can have a “putting the cart before the horse” effect, with the danger of
hindering development of the agriculture industry and the region.
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6. SSA Population Trends
SSA POPULATION TRENDS
SSA has unique circumstances in relation to the demographics of its population - a high growth rate
combined with a disproportionate number of dependent, young people.
The population of SSA increased from 100 million in 1900 to 770 million in 2005. Despite a
devastating HIV and AIDS epidemic, the population growth remains at nearly 2% per year (versus
the aggregate world growth rate of 1%), with growth projected to remain at a rate of 1.9% to 2015
(United Nations, 2006).
Globally, fertility rates and decreasing population growth transition can be linked to income increase,
urbanization, girls’ education and reduced child/infant mortality rates. This population transition and
population growth decrease in SSA has been delayed because of stagnant economic growth rates.
This is one of the main reasons SSA’s population growth rate has not declined as fast as in Asia
(Binswanger-Mkhize, 2009).
The graph below illustrates Africa’s population growth in relation to the rest of the world:
World Population Growth, 1996-2005 and 2006-2015
Source: United Nations 2006
A very important reason for poor investment incentives and returns in SSA is that the demographic
transition began later and is happening at a slower rate than elsewhere in the world. The current situa-
tion results in a high level of age dependency. The delayed demographic transition in SSA consistently
predicts two-thirds of the difference in economic growth performance with the rest of the developing
world (Ndulu, 2007). Lower life expectancies are also shown to contribute to the poorer economic
growth performance, which has been compounded by the AIDS epidemic. Today there is a 4% per
capita income growth rate in SSA, meaning the population transition will begin to accelerate over the
next decade.
A decline in population growth in SSA will reduce dependency rates and lead to a demographic profile
for the region, where there is a larger adult labor force with smaller populations of children and youth.
Currently in SSA there are over 200 million people between 12 and 24 years of age. Compounding
this, in Kenya for example, the probability that a 20 year old may die before age 40 is 36% and would
drop to 8% with the absence of HIV/AIDS (FAO, 2009).
Education opportunities for this large, young population are weak. Underdeveloped primary school
programs lead to high dropout rates and a large percentage of illiteracy. Development policies should
include generating education programs which lead to productive employment for this population.
Agriculture with high employment intensity, both directly and through urban linkage effects, should
be a high priority in this programming.
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7. Import Policy
I. IMPORT POLICY
After the end of colonization, many SSA countries started to discriminate against agriculture through
overvalued exchange rates, industrial protection and direct agricultural taxation. A major study has now
measured the combined effects of these three interventions on the net rate of agricultural assistance
and compares them across the developing and developed world (Anderson and Masters, 2009).
A negative rate of protection is in fact the rate of taxation. This is often referred to as dis-protection.
The graph below considers Africa as a whole and illustrates that the net protection rates have im-
proved from approximately -20% in 1975 to 1979 to less than -10% in the first half of this decade.
(Binswanger-Mkhize, 2009).
Nominal Rates of Assistance to Exportable, Import-Competing
and All Agricultural Products, African Region 1955-2004
Source: Anderson and Masters 2009
As the graph above shows, the anti-trade bias against agriculture has been focused on exportable
commodities (approximately 40% in the 1970’s), with importables being generally protected to a small
degree. Although improvements have occurred in relation to dis-protection, rates remain at nearly 20%
for exportables today. Within SSA, the greatest improvements have been in regards to dis-protection in
Kenya, Mozambique, Madagascar, Uganda and Cameroon (Binswanger-Mkhize, 2009).
Projections to 2050 tend to confirm that this import dependency will continue in many African countries
and this issue is compounded by low levels of intra-regional trade resulting from physical and governmental
barriers.
African farmers have the greatest opportunities for growth in domestic and regional markets. This potential
is the greatest due to a combination of factors including: higher world prices, rapid demand growth associated
with population growth, urbanization and income growth. In these markets, farmers compete at import parity
prices rather than at the lower export parity prices, and they face lower phyto-sanitary and quality challenges
than in overseas markets. Through import substitution, African farmers have the opportunity to re-conquer
markets lost to imports in the previous 45 years. Africa can look to the benefits of export market opportunities
in the long run after developing their domestic and regional markets.
Mobilizing the agriculture industry in SSA to supply the demand of domestic and regional markets is depen-
dent upon policies which continue the reduction of dis-protection, leveling the playing field for vast numbers
of small shareholder farmers. Small shareholder farmers represent the majority of the agriculture workforce in
SSA and if properly supported and developed, they have the power to make the region self-sufficient in rela-
tion to food, drive economic development to a new level and raise millions of people out of hunger and poverty.
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8. Support and Development
of Small Shareholder Farmers
II. SUPPORT AND DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL SHAREHOLDER FARMERS
Empowering small shareholder farmers to move their businesses and communities ahead will require
the policy designed to develop well structured institutions which can address the primary needs of this
sector including: education, infrastructure, financing and resource management. If small shareholder
farmers receive the appropriate support, SSA could be moved closer to solutions, including:
Increased farm profits and investments
Re-conquest (from imports) of domestic and regional markets
Reduced food insecurity and malnutrition
(Binswanger-Mkhize, 2009)
No single institution by itself can carry the burden of local and rural development; the structure
for support to farmers must be multi-disciplinary. The model should integrate the private sector,
civil society, local government and the sector institutions such as health, education and agriculture
(World Bank, 2004).
The majority of the world’s 2.1 billion people who live on less than $2 per day live in rural areas and
depend on agriculture for their livelihood. Agriculture growth can have a dramatic impact on poverty
reduction. Over the past 10 years global poverty, with a $2 per day poverty line, declined by 8.7% in
absolute numbers. This decline was caused entirely by rural poverty reduction, with agriculture as the
main source for growth (The World Development Report, 2008).
In Africa, there are 33 million small farms of less than 2 hectares , representing 80% of all farms on
the continent. Equipping these farmers with the knowledge and tools to make their farms successful
is a crucial key to increasing the pace of economic development in SSA.
How Agricultural Growth Reduces Rural Poverty
1. By raising agricultural profits and labor income
2. By raising rural non-farm profits, employment and labor
income via linkage effects
3. By causing lower prices of (non-tradable) foods,
especially beneficial for the poor
4. Lower food prices reduce urban real wages and
accelerate urban growth
5. Tightening urban and rural labor markets raise unskilled
wages economy-wide
Source: Johnson and Mellor, 1961
Agriculture has a much more direct impact on hunger than general economic growth and countries
with faster agricultural growth have made more progress against hunger (Pingali, 2007). For example,
hunger has declined in West Africa, and it has increased significantly in coup or conflict countries.
A key issue that has surfaced and one that perhaps is relatively accessible to address is a lack of
agriculture research, education and extension to support development.
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9. Agriculture Education and R&D
III. AGRICULTURE EDUCATION AND R&D
“(In Africa,) we need to blur the differences between research and extension,”
-Pedro Sanchez, Winner of the World Food Prize, 2002
Success in agriculture depends crucially on the indigenous scientific capacity to generate new
technologies. Africa in general invests significantly less in agriculture education than other regions
of the world. Africa’s large public research system includes over 400 institutions, but they are small.
The 3000 agricultural scientists in Africa are not as well trained as those in other regions and they
also have fewer resources to work with.
The agricultural science education system is similarly fragmented into 200 institutions and they
are, on average, poorly funded. Due to enormous challenges from pests, diseases and water stress,
basic scientific innovations and best practices are needed for a wide variety of crop and livestock
challenges (Binswanger-Mkhize, 2009). The goal should be to create an integrated system of
agricultural research, extension and education that is responsive and accountable to farmers,
agribusiness and consumers.
Currently, SSA’s agricultural research institutes and education extension services have very little
capacity to engage in new scientific research or to push existing technologies to the farm level.
In part, such problems can be overcome by finding new ways to generate and handle scientific knowl-
edge, such as internet and wireless phone technologies. Additionally, including farmers that are more
closely involved in both research and dissemination has proven effective in various models including
Farm Field Schools (FFS). Lack of supportive policy, government investment and private sector financ-
ing are major challenges for research and extension services.
Education and Extension
Investing in human capital is one of the most effective means of reducing poverty and encouraging
sustainable development. Agricultural education, extension and training programs ensure that informa-
tion on new technologies and best practices reaches farmers in their own communities. Extension is
the means by which new knowledge and ideas are introduced into rural areas in order to bring about
change and improve the lives of farmers and their families.
Successful extension services begin at the governmental level through the creation of supporting
policy, cascade down through technology transfer and finally, the ultimate success, technology
utilization.
The policy component of extension service relates to government development goals and strategies,
market and price policies and the levels of resource investments in the system. The policy structure
determines the framework for research and development, the process for transfer and assessment of
utilization uptake.
Technology transfer is the process of evaluating and adapting research outputs for users and then
widely disseminating this knowledge through education of target adopters.
Technology Utilization encompasses the farmers’ awareness, adaptation and adoption of technology
effectively at the farm-level, increasing productivity and profitability and, ultimately, economic growth at
the national level.
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10. Empowering Agriculture Best Practices
IV. EMPOWERING AGRICULTURE BEST PRACTICES
In developing regions of the world where small farm operations are still common and widespread, con-
ditions are variable, infrastructure can be limited, raw materials are often low quality and animal nutri-
tion programs are not optimized due to lack of resources. The level of industrialization of an operation
directly and drastically impacts animal performance. The good news is that many fundamental prac-
tices of industrialized agriculture can be applied at the small farm level.
What is fortunate for the developing region of SSA is that many countries with successful agriculture
industries and infrastructure models have moved through the regions’ existing state of development
and developed the necessary technologies along the way. Adoption of simple, yet fundamental best
practices by farmers will reap dramatic returns on investment. The pace of technology adoption is
important to long-term success. SSA should set the basic foundation of best practices and then
transition incrementally to higher technology models.
A fundamental challenge in achieving productivity growth in Africa is the fragmented nature of the
small shareholder farmer system, the variety of agro-ecological environments and the diverse farming
systems/practices. Under such conditions, the possibility for application of existing best practice tech-
nologies or the massive application of new ones are limited. However, success stories of technology
generation do exist and lessons should be drawn from such successes.
Livestock Nutrition
In SSA, many times a farmer’s dairy cow or chicken flock is the family’s single largest asset and repre-
sents their primary food source. Depending on an animal’s health and output is a precarious position
for financial and food security. A lack of knowledge and tools prevents a large majority of farmers from
sustaining the health of their animals and extending this investment to improve their quality of life.
Low productivity occurs in the absence of balanced nutrition and contributes to poor animal health.
The table below illustrates how Africa compares against other countries in relation to productivity.
Livestock Productivity
Broilers & Tilapia - Kgs Feed/1 Kg Protein Produced
Dairy - Milk Kg Production Per Day
Speicies US Brazil Thailand Africa
Broiler 1.6 1.65 1.65 2.6
Tilapia 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.5
Dairy 34 23 10 5.0
Source: Novus Analysis, 2010
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11. Empowering Agriculture Best Practices
The United States, Brazil and Thailand are raising the majority of their livestock in industrialized envi-
ronments where best practice nutrition is being applied. These best practices can be scaled down to
the farm level, empowering SSA Farmers to increase the productivity of their livestock.
Nutritional Best Practices Include:
Optimizing Feed Utilization
Optimizing Feed Costs
Enhancing Reproductive Performance
Reducing Feed-Borne Pathogens
Supporting Optimal Digestive Health
Preventing Feed Toxins
Treating and Preventing Disease (anti-microbial growth promoters)
Feed Utilization
Methionine is an essential amino acid. Amino acids are the building blocks of protein, which make feed
more nutritious and efficient. Very simply stated, animals will be limited in their growth and productivity
without proper amounts of methionine. It is the first limiting amino acid in poultry and the second limit-
ing amino acid for ruminants and pigs.
Achieving amino acid balance in an animal’s diet through feed alone is very difficult. A fundamental
best practice is the incorporation of synthetic amino acids, which allows farmers to feed their livestock
with greater efficiency and at a lower overall formulation cost.
Lowering Feed Costs
In addition to amino acid balance, another best practice to lower feed costs is the application of
enzyme technology. Feed ingredients are an enormous investment for farmers. All animals naturally
produce enzymes that break down major nutrients, including protein. However, animals are not capable
of breaking down some components that naturally occur in animal feed such as fiber or phytic acid,
which means that nutrients are not absorbed and feed is wasted.
When an animal’s diet is supplemented with enzymes, the digestion of nutrients is optimized,
leading to improved animal health and lower operating costs. In a corn/soy diet for poultry, for
example, approximately 90% of the feed is digestible, while 10% is converted to waste matter.
By maximizing the digestible portion of the feed, farmers can recognize a higher return on their
investment.
Enhancing Reproductive Performance
One dairy cow provides a single source of income for many SSA families, but this is a risky financial
position to be in. If a family’s cow successfully reproduces, the prospect of a sustainable income
increases. Reproductive issues can significantly impair the ability of farmers to produce a steady
income stream from selling dairy cows and can limit their ability to supply their local communities
with dairy products. A simple combination of minerals, vitamins, organic acid blends and mycotoxin
binders can substantially increase the reproductive health of dairy cows.
9

12. Empowering Agriculture Best Practices
Feed-Borne Pathogens and Toxins
In developing countries, producers are often forced to create diets based on a limited selection of low
quality feed ingredients. It is typical in these regions for ingredients to lose nutritional value due to
aging and the aSSAciated challenges. Mycotoxins are one example of a feed-borne which can impact
livestock and people.
Mycotoxins are a common feed-borne toxin, especially prevelant in warm climates. Mycotoxins vary
throughout the world, with different regions experiencing different mycotoxin-related challenges.
The highest risk to human health is in developing regions such as SSA, where pasteurization is not
yet widely adopted. In these areas, the aflatoxin M1 is of widespread concern.
When cattle consume aflatoxin, the milk they produce quickly becomes contaminated with M1,
which can ultimately have devastating health effects—including death of animals and of people
who consume their products.
A best practice related to mycotoxin management is the use of anti-caking agents which bond with
mycotoxins inside of the animals and safely carry them out through the animals’ waste.
Disease Prevention and Treatment
Anti-microbial growth promoters have received a high level of attention, particularly in mature and
wealthy markets, over the past few years due to concern over anti-microbial resistance. There has
never been a single case where a resistant human infection has proven to be caused by use of anti-
microbials in food-producing animals. Cases of resistant human infection are seen more frequently
with pathogens transmitted between humans (such as extremely drug resistant tuberculosis, also
called XDRTB, and MRSA).
In food production systems, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves the use of
antimicrobials for four purposes:
Growth promotion/feed efficiency: the antibiotics are administered, usually in feed, to in
crease growth rates and improve feed efficiency. The goal of this is to maximize production
from the animals.
Prevention of disease: there is a known disease risk present and the antibiotics are admini-
stered to prevent infection of animals.
Control of disease: disease is present in a percentage of a herd or flock and antibiotics
are administered to decrease the spread of disease in the flock/herd while clinically ill ani
mals are treated.
Treatment of disease: the antibiotics are administered to treat sick animals.
Growth promoters with an anti-microbial activity, when mixed into the feed, have been used for
decades and they have contributed substantially to increasing poultry, swine and cattle production and
efficiency. This has helped developing economies and agriculture systems to prosper and to become
globally competitive.
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13. Empowering Agriculture Best Practices
Livestock Genetics
A combination of genetics and nutrition have taken the protein industry a long way over the past
decades in regards to increased protein output through increased weights. In additon to increasing
livestock productivity, genetics can help farmers with issues such as disease resistance and feed con-
version improvement.
When comparing all sources of protein, poultry is the most efficient, economical source on earth.
In the 1960’s through the 1980’s, most of the focus of genetics technology in the broiler industry
was on selection programs with criteria that were relatively easy to measure, including: egg produc-
tion, hatchability, growth rate and feed conversion.
In 1988 the average weight of a broiler was approximately 2 kgs. Today the average weight is nearly
3 kgs. Broiler weights are projected to continue to increase yearly over the next decade at a rate of
0.06%. Weight increases have been achieved through the strategic application of genetic technolo-
gies and nutritional supplementation, which enable livestock to reach their maximum weight potential.
Proper nutrition and amino acid supplementation are fundamental to achieving genetic potential.
The photograph below illustrates the genetic improvements in poultry over the past four decades.
1970 2008
Housing and Management Systems
Providing housing to protect livestock from the elements, predators and to prevent the spread of dis-
ease is a fundamental best practice for maintaining animal health. Housing can be basic and inexpen-
sive and the most important considerations are related to managing the hygiene of the environment.
Ventilation systems in livestock housing serve an important function - maintaining a comfortable and
healthy animal environment. The primary purpose of a ventilation system is air exchange. Ventilation
is needed to remove excess heat, dust particles and moisture produced during normal activities such
as metabolism, respiration and evaporation. Additionally, these systems remove harmful gases and
disease causing organisms.
Another aspect of hygiene to promote animal health is waste management. In the example of
poultry, proper litter conditioning is an essential component for keeping flocks healthy and profitable
for farmers.
Conditioning litter between flocks addresses where the birds live, which is the most crucial aspect of
the poultry house environment. Ideal litter is loose and free flowing (friable), not too dry or too wet, low
in ammonia, uniform particle size and contains a minimum load of insects (Watkins, 2001).
11

14. Empowering Agriculture Best Practices
Raw Materials
For a region like SSA that is import-dependent for agricultural commodities, the severe price increases of
raw materials over the past decade are devastating.
The map below illustrates Africa’s competitive status for corn production in comparison to rest of the world:
Global Corn Acres Sub Optimized: Corn Productivity Indicators
Source: USDA FAS, Novus Analysis, 2009
Prices of raw materials have been volatile over the past decade. Since early 2002, fluctuations in produc-
tion, trade and stocks of agricultural commodities have been unusually large. Over this period, an index of
monthly-average world prices of wheat, rice, corn and soybeans rose 237%, then declined 40% and in late
2009 stood at about 115% above the January 2002 level. (USDA, 2010). From January 2002 to mid-
2007, the price index of these four commodities rose 79%. The graph below illustrates the volatility in raw
material prices over the past decade.
Raw Material Prices 2002-2008
Corn, Soya and Oil
12 Source: CME Group, 2009

15. Empowering Agriculture Best Practices
A number of factors contributed to the increase in raw materials:
Strong global economic growth and rising per capita incomes stimulated demand. Slower
trend growth for crop yields were followed by weather-reduced harvests in a number of
major producing regions in 2006 and 2007, constraining production.
Rising energy prices increased costs of production, processing, transportation for agricul
tural products and also stimulated production of biofuels.
The value of the U.S. dollar declined, which put upward pressure on commodity prices de
nominated in dollars.
The allocation of U.S. corn stocks toward ethanol production rose from 10% in 2002 to
31% in 2008.
SSA has the necessary natural resources to generate their own raw materials for use in food for
people and feed for animals. What is lacking are best practices related to crop technology.
Crop Technology
Africa is a continent rich in natural resources, both land and water. Yet there is a high prevelance of
food insecurity, import dependence and low output farming. Currently, Africa is only using 32% of its
potential arable land. The adoption of best practice crop technology can play an important role in mov-
ing SSA towards a higher level of development and self-sufficiency.
Fertilizer
Land degradations caused by nutrient depletion, soil erosion, salinization, pollution, overgrazing and
deforestation are clearly major issues in SSA agriculture. Smallholders have removed large quantities
of nutrients from their soils without applying sufficient quantities of manure or fertilizers to replenish
the soil (InterAcademy Council).
Dramatic increases in fertilizer prices over the past few years have compounded the soil degrada-
tion issue in SSA. World fertilizer prices surged by more than 200% in 2007, as farmers sought to
maximize corn production for ethanol and poor African farmers were hit the hardest by the increase
(International Center for Soil Fertility and Agricultural Development, 2009).
The rise in fertilizer prices was fueled by new demand for grain for biofuel production, higher energy
and freight prices, increased demand for grain-fed meat in emerging markets and increased use of
natural gas as liquefied natural gas (LNG).
From January 2007 to January 2008, diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices rose from $252 to $752
per ton (U.S. Gulf price), prilled urea rose from $272 to $415 per ton (Arab Gulf price) and muriate of
potash (MOP) rose from $172 to $352 per ton (Vancouver price). At the same time the price of
1 metric ton of corn rose from $3.05/bushel to $4.28/bushel.
Seed
Adaptation through the use of biotechnology can be a key tool for African farmers as they work
to manage their businesses in the face of climate change. Seed technology, in particular drought
resistant genetically modified (GM) seeds, can play a significant role in countries where crops are
rainfall dependent. In the next section of this paper “Adaptation for Rain Fed Agriculture and Climate
Change,” the best practice of GM seed usage is examined.
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16. Adaptation for Rain Fed
Agriculture and Climate Change
V. Adaptation for Rain Fed Agriculture and Climate Change
90-95% of food production in Africa is rainfall dependent. Unlike Asia, where two dominant food crops
are grown in large homogenous areas under irrigation, there has been no investment in dominant
farming systems of this kind in Africa (Akaki, 2003).
Man-made climate change has become accepted as a mainstream environmental concern.
The negative aggregate impact of climate change on African agriculture spanning to the 2080-2100
time period is expected to be between 15-30% reduction in productivity (Binswanger-Mkhize, 2009).
For African farmers, the adaptation challenges are clear:
Increase in agronomic complexity
Increase in risks of shocks based on adverse weather patterns
at the farm and community level
Modifications to cropping patterns, timing and seed requirements
Observed temperatures have increased across wide areas of the world and it is predicted that with
greenhouse emissions at current or higher levels than in the past, temperature changes during the
21st century will be faster than in the 20th century, ranging between 1.4 - 5.8 degrees Celsius
(Binswanger-Mkhize, 2009). SSA contributes the least to greenhouse gas emissions, yet is expected
to be among the most negatively affected by climate change.
Increases in extreme weather events may reduce food production. Potential adaptation to climate
change could significantly reduce negative impacts. However, countries that do not have the capacity
to adapt will be highly vulnerable to extreme events. Climate change will have varying impacts around
the world. There will be major gains in agriculture potential in North America (20-50%) and in the Rus-
sian Federation (40-70%), whereas a potential 9% loss is predicted for SSA (IPPC, 2007).
The map below illustrates predicted gains and losses of productivity spanning to the 2080 time period:
Likely Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Forestry Across the World
Source: IPCC, 2007
14

17. Adaptation for Rain Fed
Agriculture and Climate Change
Land Usage
Less than a quarter of the total land area of SSA that is suitable for rain fed crop production is used.
FAO has estimated that the potential additional land area available for cultivation amounts to more
than 700 million hectares. Experts point in particular to the Guinea Savannah region – an area twice
as large as that planted with wheat worldwide. Only 10% of the Guinea Savannah, covering an esti-
mated 600 million hectares, is farmed (FAO, 2009). The agro-ecological conditions are rather similar
to the Cerrado region of Brazil, which has been an engine of agricultural growth in that country. But
at the same time, it must be recognized that to benefit from this natural resource and open up new
farmlands will require enormous investments in infrastructure, technology and an intra-regional policy
approach.
The map below illustrates the region of the Guinea Savannah:
Source: FAO 2010
15

18. Adaptation for Rain Fed
Agriculture and Climate Change
Biotechnology Adaptation
Africa’s reliance on agriculture and its very low levels of irrigation make the region vulnerable
to weather variability and climate change. Drought resistant GM seeds have proven successful
in many parts of the world where weather is a challenge and they offer great potential for SSA.
The issue of the safety of GM seeds has been discussed since the introduction of the first genetically
modified crop in 1996. Reputable organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and
the U.S. National Academies of Science have issued numerous reports on the safety of GMOs. In June
2005, for instance, WHO released a report entitled Modern Food Biotechnology, Human Health and
Development, which reaffirmed the safety of GM foods.
The U.S. National Academies of Science has, on numerous occasions, cautioned against condemning
GM crops on the basis of non-scientific evidence. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA),
a reputed nonpartisan organization, recently released the statement in regards to GMOs, “No specific
scientific evidence, in terms of risk to human and animal health and the environment, is provided that
would justify the invocation of a safeguard clause.”
The challenge for policymakers in Africa is to make an open and honest assessment to understand
the potential benefits of GM technology, the benefits that GMOs have proven in other parts of the
world and to establish what opportunities it presents for Africa. Cereal yields have grown little in SSA
and today are around 1.2 MT per hectare, compared to an average of 3 MT per hectare in the develop-
ing world where GMO technology is widely adopted.
16

19. Conclusion
CONCLUSION
The most important point of this paper is that investments to create policy should be focused on the
issues that will make the difference for a specific country or region as they relate to the evolution of
economic development. It is critical for countries in SSA to embrace the potential of agriculture as a
means to grow their economies, to become self-sufficient and to diminish the threat of food insecurity.
This potential will be limited if agricultural policies are adopted which have been crafted by and for
mature economies.
Important Policy Categories for Economic Development in SSA:
I. Import Policy
II. Support and Development of Small Shareholder Farmers
III. Agriculture Education and R&D
IV. Empowering Agriculture Best Practices
V. Adaptation for Rain Fed Agriculture and Climate Change
Import Policy
African farmers still face the worst agricultural incentives in the world. Though there have been im-
provements against taxation, policy reform can better position SSA farmers to compete and prosper.
Through import substitution, African farmers have the opportunity to re-conquer markets lost to im-
ports in the previous 45 years.
Support and Development of Small Shareholder Farmers
Empowering small shareholder farmers to move their businesses and communities ahead will require
the policy designed to develop well structured institutions which can address the primary needs of this
sector including: education, infrastructure, financing and resource management.
Agriculture Education and R&D
Africa in general invests significantly less in agriculture education than other regions of the world.
Currently, SSA’s agricultural research institutes and education extension services have very little
capacity to engage in new scientific research or to push existing technologies to the farm level.
This can only be addressed through policy which supports effective technology transfer/education
programs which lead to technology utilization.
Empowering Agriculture Best Practices
SSA should follow the lead of the many countries with successful agriculture industries and infrastruc-
ture models that have moved through the regions existing state of development and developed the
necessary technologies along the way. Adoption of simple, yet fundamental best practices by farmers
will reap dramatic returns on investment.
Adaptation for Rain fed Agriculture and Climate Change
Adaptation of practices and infrastructure to cope with ongoing climate change and adverse weather
events is imperative for sustained agricultural growth in SSA. Biotechnology related to seed technol-
ogy and access to arable land can both play a critical role in the adaptation process.
17

20. Conclusion
Food Security and Agriculture
“There is no question that the clock of history is moving swiftly. Already a tragic and growing
imbalance exists between the world’s agricultural output and its population. Until the population
is stabilized, every increase in food production is an important holding action. In effect, we are
“buying time” until the scales of survival can be brought into lasting balance”
- John D. Rockefeller, Conference on Subsistence and Peasant Economics, 1965
SSA is one of the most food-insecure regions in the world. In the region as a whole, more than 40%
of people are undernourished, and in Eritrea and Somalia the proportion rises to 70%. The seven
countries of the region - Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, the Sudan and Uganda - have a
combined population of 160 million people, 70 million of whom live in areas prone to extreme food
shortages. Over the past 30 years, these countries, which are all members of the Intergovernmental
Authority on Development (IGAD), have been threatened by famine at least once each decade.
Even in normal years, the IGAD countries do not have enough food to meet their peoples’ needs. In
four of them - Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia - the average per capita dietary energy supply
(DES) is now substantially less than the minimum requirement.
In these precarious circumstances, any external shock, be it a drought, a flood, an invasion of migratory
pests or livestock disease can push large numbers of people over the edge. Total national food pro-
duction may not fall by much; even in the worst famine years, aggregate national production has only
dropped to about 7% below the long-term average. But for the poorest communities, the effects can
be disastrous, as families that had insufficient food to start with suddenly find themselves with none
at all.
These are the reasons that policies related to supporting the development of a more resilient agricul-
tural industry are urgent and necessary. Policies relevant to SSA are the key to success: support small
shareholder farmers in operating profitable and sustainable businesses, provide connections to edu-
cational extension services and access to the transfer of technologies and best practices that will spur
long-term economic development for the region.
18

21. References
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