Choosing the Right CBSE School A Comprehensive Guide for Parents
What does the future hold forhigher education? Andreas Schleicher
1. 1
1
What does the future hold
for higher education
What does the future hold for
higher education?
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
IMHE General Conference
Paris, 19 September 2012
Andreas Schleicher
Advisor of the OECD Secretary-General on Education Policy
Deputy Director for Education
2. Education
2
2 Formal learning
providers
Informal learning
Traditional institutions
Traditional institutions
What does the future hold
Is there no end How successful do
to the expansion of institutions engage with
for higher education
higher education? evolving learning needs?
Four questions…
Ownership
Learner
Formal learning Informal learning
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Who can make a Can we extend mass
Innovators
Innovators
systemic difference to education for some to
closing skills gaps? personalised learning for all?
3. Education
3
3 Formal learning
providers
Informal learning
Traditional institutions
Traditional institutions
What does the future hold
Is there no end How successful do
to the expansion of institutions engage with
for higher education
higher education? evolving learning needs?
Ownership
Learner
Formal learning Informal learning
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Who can make a Can we extend mass
Innovators
Innovators
systemic difference to education for some to
closing skills gaps? personalised learning for all?
4. The composition of the global talent pool has changed…
4
4 Countries‟ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 year-
old age groups,
What does the future hold
55-64-year-old population 25-34-year-old population
for higher education
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
About 39 million people About 81 million people
who attained tertiary level who attained tertiary level
5. The composition of the global talent pool has changed…
5
5 Countries‟ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 year-
old age groups
What does the future hold
55-64-year-old population 25-34-year-old population
for higher education
United
other, 14.5
United States, 35.8 States, 20.5
other, 12.9
Korea, 1.6
Australia, 1.7 Korea, 5.7
Mexico, 1.8 Australia, 1.6
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Italy, 1.9
Mexico, 3.9
Spain, 2.1 Japan, 10.9
Italy, 2.0
Brazil, 3.5
Spain, 3.5
France, 3.5
Canada, 4.2 Brazil, 4.5
United Kingdom, 5.3 France, 4.1 China, 18.3
Japan, 12.4 Canada, 3.1
Germany, 6.3 Germany, 3.1
China, 6.9
United
Kingdom, 4.4
6. Australia
7
7 Austria
Belgium
Canada A world of change – higher education
Chile
Czech Republic
What does the future hold
Denmark
30,000
Estonia
Finland
1995
for higher education
France
Germany
25,000
Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
20,000
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
Cost per student
15,000
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
10,000
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Slovenia 5,000
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
0
Graduate supply
Turkey
United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate (%)
7. Australia
8
8 Austria
Belgium
Canada A world of change – higher education
Chile
Czech Republic
What does the future hold
Denmark
30,000
Estonia
Finland
1995
for higher education
France
Germany
25,000
Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
20,000
Israel
Italy United States
Japan
Korea
Cost per student
15,000
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
10,000
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Slovenia 5,000
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
0
Graduate supply
Turkey
United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate (%)
8. Australia
9
9 Austria
Belgium
Canada A world of change – higher education
Chile
Czech Republic
What does the future hold
Denmark
30,000
Estonia
Finland
2000
for higher education
France
Germany
25,000
Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
20,000
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
15,000
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
10,000
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Slovenia 5,000
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey 0
United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate
9. Australia
10
10 Austria
Belgium
Canada A world of change – higher education
Chile
Czech Republic
What does the future hold
Denmark
30,000
Estonia
Finland
2001
for higher education
France
Germany
25,000
Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
20,000
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
15,000
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
10,000
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Slovenia 5,000
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey 0
United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate
10. Australia
11
11 Austria
Belgium
Canada A world of change – higher education
Chile
Czech Republic
What does the future hold
Denmark
30,000
Estonia
Finland
2002
for higher education
France
Germany
25,000
Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
20,000
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
15,000
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
10,000
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Slovenia 5,000
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey 0
United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate
11. Australia
12
12 Austria
Belgium
Canada A world of change – higher education
Chile
Czech Republic
What does the future hold
Denmark
30,000
Estonia
Finland
2003
for higher education
France
Germany
25,000
Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
20,000
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
15,000
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
10,000
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Slovenia 5,000
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey 0
United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate
12. Australia
13
13 Austria
Belgium
Canada A world of change – higher education
Chile
Czech Republic
What does the future hold
Denmark
30,000
Estonia
Finland
2004
for higher education
France
Germany
25,000
Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
20,000
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
15,000
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
10,000
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Slovenia 5,000
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey 0
United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate
13. Australia
14
14 Austria
Belgium
Canada A world of change – higher education
Chile
Czech Republic
What does the future hold
Denmark
30,000
Estonia
Finland
2005
for higher education
France
Germany
25,000
Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
20,000
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
15,000
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
10,000
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Slovenia 5,000
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey 0
United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate
14. Australia
15
15 Austria
Belgium
Canada A world of change – higher education
Chile
Czech Republic
What does the future hold
Denmark
30,000
Estonia
Finland
2006
for higher education
France
Germany
25,000
Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
20,000
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
15,000
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
10,000
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Slovenia 5,000
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey 0
United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate
15. Australia
16
16 Austria
Belgium
Canada A world of change – higher education
Chile
Czech Republic
What does the future hold
Denmark
30,000
Estonia
Finland
2007
for higher education
France
Germany
25,000
Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
20,000
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
15,000
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
10,000
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Slovenia 5,000
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey 0
United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate
16. Australia
17
17 Austria
Belgium
Canada A world of change – higher education
Chile
Czech Republic
What does the future hold
Denmark
30,000
Estonia
Finland
2008
for higher education
France
Germany
25,000
Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
20,000
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
15,000
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
10,000
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Slovenia 5,000
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey 0
United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate
17. Australia
18
18 Austria
Belgium
Canada A world of change – higher education
Chile
Czech Republic
What does the future hold
Denmark
30,000
Estonia
Finland
2009
for higher education
France
Germany
25,000
Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
20,000
Israel
Italy
Japan
Korea
15,000
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
10,000
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Slovenia 5,000
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey 0
United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate
18. Australia
19
19 Austria
Belgium
Canada A world of change – higher education
Chile
Czech Republic
What does the future hold
Denmark
30,000
Estonia
Finland
2009
for higher education
France
Germany
25,000
Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
20,000
Israel
Italy Denmark
Japan United Kingdom
Korea
15,000 Australia
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands New Zealand
New Zealand Finland
10,000 Iceland
Norway
Poland
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic Australia
Slovenia 5,000
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey 0
United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate
19. Australia
20
20 Austria
Belgium
Canada A world of change – higher education
Chile
Czech Republic
What does the future hold
Denmark
30,000
Estonia
Finland
2009
for higher education
France
Germany
25,000
Expenditure per student at tertiary level (USD)
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
20,000
Israel
US
Italy
Japan
Korea
15,000
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
10,000
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Slovenia 5,000
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey 0
United Kingdom 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
United States Tertiary-type A graduation rate
20. 22
22 Evolution in the number of students enrolled outside
their country of citizenship (2000 to 2010)
By region of destination
What does the future hold
Worldwide In OECD In EU countries In G20 countries In North America
for higher education
Number of foreign students
4 500 000
4 000 000
3 500 000
3 000 000
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
2 500 000
2 000 000
1 500 000
1 000 000
500 000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201
Chart C4.1
21. 26
26 Trends in international education market shares
Percentage of all foreign tertiary students enrolled, by destination
What does the future hold
2010 2000
Market share (%)
25
for higher education
20
15
10
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
5
0
Russian Federation
Sweden
Germany
Korea
Austria
Canada
China
Australia
France
Spain
Japan
South Africa
Italy
Switzerland
Netherlands
ther G20 and non-OECD
Belgium
United Kingdom
New Zealand
United States
Other OECD
“Other G20 and non-OECD countries” refers to the portion of total foreign students studying in
other G20 and non-OECD countries and is obtained after subtracting China, South Africa and the
Russian Federation from the total in non-OECD destinations, as estimated from UNESCO data.
22. 27
27
What does the future hold
for higher education
Will we one day all have a university degree
and work for the minimum wage?
A growing educational divide
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
23. 29
29 The value of higher education for a man
Components of the private net present value of higher education for
a man (2008 or latest available year)
What does the future hold
Direct cost Foregone earnings Income tax effect
Social contribution effect Transfers effect Gross earnings benefits
for higher education
Unemployment effect Grants effect
Portugal $373,851
United States
Czech Republic $249,679 $329,552
Poland $230,630
Slovenia $225,663
Austria $225,048
Ireland $223,821
Slovak Republic $208,883
Hungary $208,386
Korea $189,766
OECD average $161,625
France $159,950
Italy
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
$155,346
Canada $153,520
Netherlands $145,886
Finland $145,608
Germany $144,682
Israel $143,582
United Kingdom $143,394
Japan $143,018
Belgium $116,225
Australia $115,287 Net
Spain
present
$102,975
Norway $82,076
Estonia $74,213 value in
Turkey
Sweden
$64,177
$61,454 USD
Denmark $56,369 equivalent
New Zealand $52,471
-400,000 -200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000
USD equivalent
Chart A9.3
24. Public cost and benefits of higher education
31
31 For a man obtaining tertiary education (2008 or latest available year)
Public benefits Public costs
In equivalent USD
What does the future hold
Hungary $254,984
United States $232,779
Ireland $172,602
for higher education
Italy $168,693
Belgium $166,477
Germany $156,125
Slovenia $155,664
Netherlands $133,560
Austria $132,103
Poland $118,266
Czech Republic $115,790
Israel $107,436
OECD average $101,116
Finland $95,947
Australia $93,236
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Portugal $89,464
United Kingdom $86,550
France $81,545
Japan $67,411
Canada $66,845 Net present
Slovak Republic $58,159 value
Korea $55,367
Norway $55,318
Sweden 43,419
Denmark $38,421
New Zealand $33,912
Spain $25,591
Turkey $21,724
Estonia $4,587
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
Chart A9.5
25. IMHE, 19 September 2012 What does the future hold
Andreas Schleicher for higher education 32
32
Consumption or economic use?
26. Average GDP growth (real percentage change from the previous
34
34 year) and labour income growth in GDP, by educational categories
Countries with at least five years of growth estimates by educational categories; GDP growth
estimates are matched with years of education growth estimates (2000-2010)
What does the future hold
GDP Growth ISCED 5B/5A/6 ISCED 3/4 ISCED 0/1/2
5%
for higher education
4%
3%
2%
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
1%
0%
-1%
Czech Republic
United States
Germany
Switzerland
Austria
Norway
Israel
Ireland
France
New Zealand
Sweden
Hungary
Denmark
Korea
Canada
Finland
Country average
United Kingdom
Chart A10.1
27. IMHE, 19 September 2012 What does the future hold
Andreas Schleicher for higher education 36
36
Who should pay for what, when and how?
Can we ensure sustainable financing?
28. IMHE, 19 September 2012 What does the future hold
Andreas Schleicher for higher education 37
37
80
90
70
210
200
220
100
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
110
United Kingdom
Korea (2000 = 100)
Index of change
Estonia
Spain
Portugal
Poland
Finland
Czech Republic
Mexico
Austria
Japan
Denmark
France
Change in expenditure
Ireland
OECD average
Belgium
Italy
Change in expenditure per student
Sweden
Germany
Norway
Slovak Republic
Netherlands
Hungary
Brazil
Change in the number of students (in full-time equivalents)
Index of change between 2000 and 2009 (2000=100, 2009 constant prices)
Iceland
Changes in tertiary students and expenditure
United States
Israel
Switzerland
29. Average tuition fees and proportion of students who
39
39
benefit from public loans and/or scholarships/grants
Tertiary-type A, public institutions, academic year 2008-09, national full-time students
Education at a Glance 2012
Bubble size
7 000 shows
Group 2: graduation rates
Group 3: Potentially high financial United States
Average tuition fees charged by public institutions in USD
6 000 Extensive and barriers for entry to
broadly uniform cost tertiary-type A education,
sharing across but also strong student United Kingdom
5 000 students, student support.
support systems Japan
somewhat less Australia
4 000 developed.
3 000 Group 4: New Zealand
Group 1:
Andreas Schleicher
London, 10 September 2012
Relatively low financial barriers
No (or low) financial barriers
to entry to tertiary education and Netherlands
2 000 relatively low support
for tertiary studies due to
tuition fees and a high level of
student aid.
Switzerland Italy Spain
1 000 Austria
Belgium (Fl.) Norway
Belgium (Fr.) Denmark
0 France
Mexico
Finland Iceland Sweden
-1 000
0 25 50 75 100
Chart B5.1 % of students who benefit from public loans AND/OR scholarships/grants
30. Average tuition fees and proportion of students who
40
40
benefit from public loans and/or scholarships/grants
Tertiary-type A, public institutions, academic year 2008-09, national full-time students
Education at a Glance 2012
7 000
United States
Average tuition fees charged by public institutions in USD
6 000
5 000 United Kingdom
Japan
Australia
4 000
3 000 New Zealand
Andreas Schleicher
London, 10 September 2012
Netherlands
2 000
Switzerland Italy Spain
1 000 Austria
Belgium (Fl.) Norway
Belgium (Fr.) Denmark
0 France
Mexico
Finland Iceland Sweden
-1 000
0 25 50 75 100
Chart B5.1 % of students who benefit from public loans AND/OR scholarships/grants
31. Education
42
42 Formal learning
providers
Informal learning
Educational institutions
Traditional institutions
What does the future hold
Is there no end How successful do
to the expansion of institutions engage with
for higher education
higher education? evolving learning needs?
Ownership
Learner
Formal learning Informal learning
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Who can make a Can we extend mass
Innovators
Innovators
systemic difference to education for some to
closing skills gaps? personalised learning for all?
32. IMHE, 19 September 2012 What does the future hold
Andreas Schleicher for higher education 44
44
Skill score
150
200
250
300
350
Not completed school
Upper secondary
University
Not completed school
Upper secondary
University
Not completed school
Upper secondary
Higher education and skills
University
Interquartile range in skill distribution by educational qualification
33. 45
45 Learning beyond institutions
Cross-sectional skill-age profiles for youths by education and work status
What does the future hold
Mean skill score
320
for higher education
310
Youth in education
300
Youth in and work
290
education
280
270
260 Youth in work
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
250
240
230
Not in education,
220 not in work
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Age
Linear (In education only) Linear (In education and work)
Linear (Work only) Linear (NEET)
34. Education
46
46 Formal learning
providers
Informal learning
Traditional institutions
Traditional institutions
What does the future hold
Is there no end How successful do
to the expansion of institutions engage with
for higher education
higher education? evolving learning needs?
Ownership
Learner
Formal learning Informal learning
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Other providers
Other providers
Who can make a Can we extend mass
systemic difference to education for some to
closing skills gaps? personalised learning for all?
35. 47 Skills shortages and unemployment coexist
47
Unemployment rates (2011)
What does the future hold
Share of employers reporting recruitment difficulties
for higher education
Poland
Ireland
Norway
Spain
South Africa
United Kingdom
Sweden
Netherlands
France
Czech Republic
Hungary
China
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Austria
Slovenia
Italy
Canada
Belgium
Germany
Greece
Mexico
New Zealand
Switzerland
Turkey
United States
Australia
Brazil
India
Japan
% 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 %
36. 48
48 Evidence on the link between skill mismatch and earnings
Skill mismatch and earnings are strongly related
What does the future hold
for higher education
3000
Monthly wages US$
2500
–
2000
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
1500
1000
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Age
HIGH-SKILL MATCH (high foundation skill, high use) SKILL DEFICIT (low foundation skill, high use)
SKILL SURPLUS (high foundation skill, low use) LOW-SKILL MATCH (low foundation skill, low use)
37. Education
50
50 Formal learning
providers
Informal learning
Traditional institutions
Traditional institutions
What does the future hold
Is there no end Will institutions succeed
to the expansion of shifting responsibility for
for higher education
higher education? learning to the learner?
Ownership
Learner
Formal learning Informal learning
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
Other providers
Who can make a Can we extend mass
Innovators
systemic difference to education for some to
closing skills gaps? personalised learning for all?
skip
38. Participation in higher education among students whose
52
52
parents have low levels of education (2009)
Percentage of 20-34 year-old students in higher education whose parents have low levels of education
What does the future hold
Percentage of parents with low levels of education in the total parent population
Odds of being a student in higher education if parents have low levels of education (right axis)
for higher education
Odds ratio
100% 1.0
90% 0.9
80% 0.8
70% 0.7
60% 0.6
50% 0.5
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
40% 0.4
30% 0.3
20% 0.2
10% 0.1
0% 0.0
Hungary
Denmark
Austria
Sweden
Germany
Turkey
Portugal
Netherlands
Greece
Poland
Luxembourg
Belgium
Finland
Australia
Switzerland
New Zealand
Spain
Iceland
Ireland
OECD average
Norway
Slovenia
United States
Canada
Italy
France
Czech Republic
United Kingdom
Chart A6.1
39. Intergenerational mobility in education (2009)
54
54 Percentage of 25-34 year-old non-students whose educational attainment is higher than their
parents‟ (upward mobility), lower (downward mobility) or the same (status quo) and status quo by
parents' educational level (low, medium, high)
What does the future hold
High Medium Low Downward mobility Upward mobility
for higher education
„Status quo by parents educational level
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Turkey
Germany
Norway
Luxembourg
Sweden
Austria
Greece
Australia
Portugal
France
OECD average
Spain
Hungary
Switzerland
Ireland
Slovenia
Italy
Estonia
Belgium
Netherlands
Canada
Denmark
Czech Republic
Poland
New Zealand
Iceland
United Kingdom
Finland
Slovak Republic
United States
Chart
A6.5
40. No relationship between share of private financing and
55
55 educational mobility in higher education
Percentage of private sources in higher education finance
What does the future hold
80
United Kingdom
Higher share of private financing in higher education
for higher education
70
United States
60
Australia
50
40 Canada
New Zealand Italy
Poland Portugal
Andreas Schleicher
IMHE, 19 September 2012
30
Netherlands
Czech Republic Spain
20 France
Germany Ireland
Slovenia
Austria
Belgium Sweden
10
Iceland
Finland
Norway Denmark
Hungary
Higher degree of educational mobility
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Percentage of students in higher education whose parents have low education
Editor's Notes
Thank you for the opportunity to speak to the future of higher education. I would like to touch on four questions. Given that I am speaking mainly to managers of higher education institutions, these questions will revolve around education providers, both formal and non-formal. But I won’t forget the perspective of learners, their demand for both formal learning and for learning informal learning beyond institutions.I will start with looking at what we know about the supply and demand for university education, as we know it, and what that implies for the evolution of the global talent pool.I will then look into how successfulinstitutions are engaging with a widening and increasingly informal range of learning needs.That brings me to the question for how we can shift greater emphasis from qualifications-based education up-front to more demand-sensitive learning throughout life, and close widely visible skills gap.And I will conclude with some reflections on where the scope for innovative entrants is to shape new forms of informal learning. Run out of time.
So what do our data say on the evolution of the global talent pool?
First, the pie has become a lot bigger. Among the age group nearing retirement, there are 39 million with a tertiary qualification in the 36 countries for which we have comparable data. Among the age group entering the labour-force, it is more than twice that number.
But while in the older age group every third person in global talent pool was in the United States, it is only every fifth in the younger age group. China’s share of this global talent pool has expanded from less 7% among the older age group to 18% among those who have just entered the labour market – just 2 percentage points below that of the U.S. In sum, the US still has one of most highly educated labour forces in the OECD area. But among those 25-34 year-olds who have recently entered the labour market, the US now ranks 15th among 34 OECD countries in tertiary attainment.
Let us look at the evolution in greater detail.
Some of the expansion that you are seeing here is driven by international students.
What impact does the rapid expansion of higher education have on the labour-market value of degrees?
Themostinterestingfindingisthatthe employment and earnings advantage of higher education continued to rise, suggesting that the increase in knowledge workers has not led to a decline in their pay, which is what we are seeing for low-skilled workers. And the economic crisis has increased those differentials very considerably.
The investment also seems to work out from the perspective of taxpayers.
Now there remains the question to what extent the skills developed through higher education are put to productive use or just reflect individual interests and preferences. But our data show that the share of individuals holding tertiary degrees who also work in occupations requiring tertiary qualifications hovers above 75%, so that suggests pretty good skill utilisation in most OECD countries.
But our data show a pretty close relationship between
Another way to look at this is through the extent to which higher education has contributed to economic progress. What you see here is that more than half of economic growth over the last decade has been driven by labour-income growth among tertiary educated individuals.
Knowing that education pays does not guarantee that we figure out how to pay for it.
Most countries have seen a significant increase in tertiary education finance, and in almost all countries that increase has outpaced rising student numbers.
But countries are financing that expenditure in very different ways.The group of countries marked here in red are going to face major challenges.
So how well do initial qualifications equip us for learning beyond schools?
It is clear that the qualifications we obtained don’t always equate to the skills we have, because we continue to learn after obtaining a degree and because we lose skills that we do not use. We have just undertaken the first assessment of adult skills, sort of a PISA for adults, and initial results reveal that the relationship between the qualifications we attained in the past, and the foundation skills we have now, is a lot weaker than we might think.
It is clear that the qualifications we obtained don’t always equate to the skills we have, because we continue to learn after obtaining a degree and because we lose skills that we do not use. We have just undertaken the first assessment of adult skills, sort of a PISA for adults, and initial results reveal that the relationship between the qualifications we attained in the past, and the foundation skills we have now, is a lot weaker than we might think.Lets pick one country. First you see that adults who didn’t complete secondary schooling demonstrate a range of skills, the orange bar represents the middle half of the skill distribution. So not everyone who is a high-school dropoutis unskilled. As you would expect people with a high school degree tend to do better, but you see that there is significant overlap. And those who have a university degree come out on top. Here the world looks in order.The picture is not that clear in all countries. Take another country. Here the performance of adults with school and university qualifications is rather similar. The picture gets most interesting when you contrast one country with another. Take a third country here. You see that high school graduates in the second country are about as highly skilled as the university graduates in the third. That illustrates the power of the OECD Adult Skills Survey in benchmarking the value of national academic and vocational qualifications across countries, something we have never been able to do before.
It is very difficult to assess skills gaps. The views of employers on these provide one perspective. What our data show is the toxic mix between, on the one hand, unemployed graduates on the street while employers tell us at the very same time that they cannot find the people with the skills they need.
What our data also show that skill gaps have a price, certainly for individuals.
Don’t be misled that these changes are somehow averaging out, you can’t just shift workers from one occupation to another. On the contrary, the challenges which those changes in occupational profiles pose for skills policies become clear when you take into account that different occupations require very different skill profiles. Its just very hard to transform an unemployed steelworker into a productive computer specialist.With PIAAC, we are now able to track those skill profiles within a comparative framework: Let me mark the average in white.The violet shade shows you that low-skilled service workers (like a servant in a restaurant) need a lot of motor skills but few computer skills. People producing goods need more of everything but the profile is quite similar. Low-skilled information workers (like clerks or bookkeepers) are using a pretty rounded skill profile, High-skilled information workers use an even wider range, and you see that literacy skills and oral communication are particularly important. For managers, planning their time and the time of others is particularly important. And when you move to high-skilled knowledge workers (like yourselves) you need more of everything but a lot better skills in oral communication, reading and computers. So as you move from producing goods to high-level knowledge work, you need to develop not just more but also different skills. With PIAAC, we now have an opportunity to map competitive advantages of countries.
Clearly, our challenge is transformation, and we know where this starts. But if we keep coming up with bigger and more beautiful variations of the old mold, then we will not do justice to the future of higher education.