The refugee crisis: setting the scene - Thomas Liebig
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Presentation by Thomas Liebig, Principal Administrator, OECD ELS Directorate, at the round table discussion on "Local responses to refugee crisis - From initial reception to longer term integration", 26 Nov 2016, Paris, France
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The refugee crisis: setting the scene - Thomas Liebig
- 1. THE REFUGEE CRISIS: SETTING THE SCENE Thomas Liebig International Migration Division Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs 26 November 2015
- 2. Why is this refugee crisis different ? 0 200 400 600 800 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Thousands OECD EU Germany 448 837 310 647 100 222 Jan-Aug 2014 Jan-Aug 2015 OECD EU DEU Evolution of number of new asylum seekers, 1980-2014 2015 vs. 2014: January to August I. Unprecedented numbers Source: UNHCR , OECD calculations
- 3. The new inflows no longer come primarily through the Central Mediterranean Source: Detections of illegal border crossings on the basis of Frontex data, OECD Secretariat
- 4. Germany and Hungary account for almost half of the total newly-registered flows Source: UNHCR, OECD calculations January-August 2013 OECD Total = 347 600 January-August 2014 OECD Total = 447 900 January-August 2015 OECD Total = 837 300
- 5. Syria is the main origin country, but it accounted for only 18% of the asylum flows to the OECD in the first 8 months of 2015 Source: UNHCR, OECD calculations January-August 2013 OECD Total = 347 600 January-August 2014 OECD Total = 447 900 January-August 2015 OECD Total = 837 300
- 6. The monthly number of asylum seekers from Syria, Afghanistan, Albania and Iraq has increased dramatically since April 2015 0 10 20 30 40 50 2013M01 2013M02 2013M03 2013M04 2013M05 2013M06 2013M07 2013M08 2013M09 2013M10 2013M11 2013M12 2014M01 2014M02 2014M03 2014M04 2014M05 2014M06 2014M07 2014M08 2014M09 2014M10 2014M11 2014M12 2015M01 2015M02 2015M03 2015M04 2015M05 2015M06 2015M07 2015M08 Thousands Syria Afghanistan Albania Eritrea Iraq Kosovo Source: UNHCR , OECD calculations
- 7. In per-capita terms, Hungary, Austria and Sweden have been the most affected countries thus far 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 2012 2013 2014 New asylum seekers per million population in selected OECD countries 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 Jan-Aug 2014 Jan-Aug 2015 Jan-Sep 201514 000 Source: UNHCR, OECD calculations
- 8. There is a strong diversity of qualification level within and between refugees groups 8 Source: Statistics Sweden, 2015 Education level of immigrants aged 16-74 in Sweden by latest country of residence, 2014 0 20 40 60 80 100 Iran Syrian Arab Republic Iraq Afghanistan Eritrea Somalia ISCED 0, 1, 2 ISCED 3 ISCED 4, 5, 6 % covered
- 9. I. Unprecedented numbers II. Strong concentration of asylum seekers in just a handful of entry points and destination countries III. Advances in communication technology and the emergence of new smuggling routes leads to rapidly changing situations IV. Diversity of origin countries and deterioration of the situation in transit countries / countries of temporary refuge V. Many crises in parallel in countries relatively close to Europe with little prospect for improvement in the near future VI. Large number of unaccompanied minors VII. Large differences in the skills and qualifications of refugees VIII. Part of the public opinion in several European countries is hostile to further migration flows, including refugees Why is this refugee crisis different ?
- 10. www.oecd.org/migration Thomas.Liebig@oecd.org For further information on the OECD’s work on the integration of refugees and other migrant groups: … coming soon: 10
Notes de l'éditeur
- In 2014, at more than 825 000, the number of new asylum requests in the OECD was just slightly below the previous record in 1992 of 853 000. This year, the number will certainly exceed 1 million.
- In 2015, most new flows no longer come through the Central Mediterranean route («Lampedusa») but rather through Greece and subsequently the Balkans. This is due to a variety of factors including the fact that this route is safer (less sea distance, dramatic situation in Libya). The figure relates to detected illegal border crossings and refers to the January-July figures (except Spain: until June). FRONTEX, the European Border Agency, just released new figures including August which was the fifth consecutive monthly record, with 156 000 new illegal border crossings. In total, more than 500 000 migrants were detected at EU external borders in the first eight months of this year after a crossed the EU borders, compared with 280 000 in the entire year of 2014. Note, however, a large number of the persons detected at the Hungarian border with Serbia had already been counted when they arrived in Greece from Turkey a few weeks earlier so there is also significant double counting. This holds by the way also for the asylum figures, as most people applying in Hungary also applying elsewhere (notably Austria and Germany) later on.
- German data refer to formal asylum registrations. Given the large increase, there is an additional significant and growing number of asylum seekers who are still waiting for their request to be formally filed. The vast majority of refugees in Turkey do not apply for asylum. In Turkey, 2 Million Syrians have temporary protection; in addition there are about 300’000 Afghans and Iraqis in Turkey without formal status.
- There is also a large diversity in terms of educational attainment of asylum seekers, even within nationalities: Among Syrians, for example, there are significant shares of both high- and low-educated.
- In contrast to the large increases from Syria, Afghanistan and, to a lesser degree, Albania and Iraq, the number of new requests from Kosovo decreased rapidly. Asylum seekers from the Balkans have in general very low recognition rates.
- Important to note that the crisis is not a migration crisis, but a refugee crisis. Not only Syrian refugees, but also high numbers of Afghans, Iraqis, Eritreans – in all of these countries, situation in origin (and transit) countries gives little hope for improvement.