Greater Manchester is developing an early years strategy and new delivery model to improve outcomes for children. A cost-benefit analysis was conducted over a 25-year period looking at fiscal, social and economic costs and benefits. The analysis found that the new delivery model would have a net benefit of over £400 million over 25 years through improved outcomes like school readiness, employment rates and reduced crime. However, the strategy faces challenges in obtaining investment as the estimated payback period is over 25 years when looking at ongoing delivery and most savings would not benefit local authorities. Efforts are underway to test and implement the model through early adopters and align it with other initiatives in the region.

1. Greater Manchester’s Early Years strategy
- building the business case
Julian Cox, Deputy Director of Research, New Economy
26th June 2015

2. Introduction - Early years has long been identified as a
key issue for Greater Manchester
• Manchester Independent Economic
Review (MIER)
• Greater Manchester Strategy
• Greater Manchester Whole Place
Community Budget

3. Greater Manchester CBA methodology

4. What do we mean by costs and benefits?
• Fiscal
• Social
• Economic
Costs
Benefits
All additional
costs needed to
deliver project
Fiscal Economic Social

5. The early years New Delivery Model
• The NDM contains a suite of evidence-based interventions and evidence-based assessment tools to identify
families reaching clinically diagnosable thresholds for intervention or having multiple risk factors as early as
possible.
STAGE 1 (Pre Birth before 12 + 6 weeks)
STAGE 2 (Birth 10 -14 days)
STAGE 3 (3 Months)
Ages and Stages
STAGE 4 (9 Months)
•Predict and plan for 2 years old offer
•Ages and Stages
STAGE 5 (18 Months)
*agreed 2 year old offer arrangements
Ages and Stages assessment - plus key questions
STAGE 6 (24 Months)
Ages and Stages assessment - plus key questions
Add prediction of learning readiness at EYPS
STAGE 7 (36 Months)
Ages and Stages assessment plus key questions
Add Prediction of learning readiness at EYPS
STAGE 8 (48 Months)
Ages and Stages assessment plus key questions
Add Predictions of learning readiness at EYPS
Targeted & Universal InterventionsNDM Assessment Model
Baby Express ECAT
Children’s Centres
NBO
Healthy Child Programme
15 hrs. for 3-4
year olds
FNP
IY Baby IY Toddler/Pre-school
Triple P
Video Interaction Guidance
NBAS
Individualised Child
Parent Interaction
Universal
Services
Targeted
interventions
Assessment Stages 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Targeted 2s
Daycare

6. Early Years modelling considerations
• Multiple interventions
• Multiple cohort types (universal and targeted)
• Long term nature of the outcomes
• 25 year time frame chosen
 Brought in external support from Social Finance to
investigate the evidence base and provide further insight

7. School
Readiness
(incl.
cognitive
dev)
Behavioural/
emotional
dev.
Population
earnings
Population
unemployment
Truancy
Exclusion
ASB
Crime
Maternal
supportiveness
Early cognitive
stimulation
Early
development
Short term
direct parental
impacts: e.g.
employment,
smoking
Short term
direct child
impacts: e.g.
use of health
services
Intervention
Mental
health
GM Early Years Logic Tree

8. Costs and benefits of the New Delivery
Model
NDM Cost profile – over 25 years – for each yearly cohort
Cumulative Gross Savings Apportionment (Agencies)
Early savings are driven largely by maternal employment with child-related savings increasing in secondary
school and again in adulthood.

9. Challenges of building an investment
case

10. Investment challenges (1) - Estimated
fiscal payback periods
• Considering a single year’s cohort of 38,000
children, the model pays back fiscally in Year 19,
with cumulative net savings of £13m over 25
years.
• However, when considering a sustainable year on
year delivery of the New Delivery Model – the
payback period extends to >25 years.
Cumulative Net Costs / Savings Position - By year - Single cohort
Cumulative Net Costs / Savings Position - By year - Multi cohort

11. Investment Challenges (2)
• Of the total net savings, only 2% would be accrued by
Greater Manchester local authorities.
• The bulk of the savings fall to national bodies (e.g.
DWP) or local schools.
• Therefore a reinvestment model would require
DWP and schools to make significant transfers
once school readiness and employment rates
improve.

12. Making the political as well as financial
case
• Economic value of the scheme over 25 years > £400m
• The NDM has a substantial impact on school readiness,
helping c.1100 extra children become school ready. This
equates to a 3% improvement in school readiness.
• If successful, it is likely that wider economic and social
benefits will occur which we can’t currently take into
account in the financial model savings case.

13. Latest progress
• A number of early adopters testing different areas of the
model
• Early Years included in the GM Devolution agreement
• Commitment from Health and Local Authority leads in all
10 localities to implementing the GM model
• Varied pace and scale of implementation across GM
• Troubled Families Phase 2 programme is a potential
source of investment for the highest need families
• Opportunities to align with GM Health and Social Care
devolution

14. julian.cox@neweconomymanchester.com
Any questions?