Bela Hovy's presentation - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting

1. Population, international migrationPopulation, international migration
and global sustainable developmentand global sustainable development
Perspectives on Global Development:
Expert Group Meeting on International Migration and Development
OECD Development Centre
Paris, 24-25 February 2015
Bela Hovy, Chief
Migration Section, Population Division
Department of Economic and Social Affairs
United Nations, New York

2. Global population will continue to growGlobal population will continue to grow
Total population size, 1950-2050Total population size, 1950-2050 (billions)(billions)
8.3
10.9

3. Fertility moving towards replacementFertility moving towards replacement
Total fertility, 1970 – 2014 (Total fertility, 1970 – 2014 (births per womanbirths per woman))

4. Life expectancy continues to riseLife expectancy continues to rise
Life expectancy at birth,1950-2014 (Life expectancy at birth,1950-2014 (in yearsin years))

5. Role of migration as aRole of migration as a
driver of populationdriver of population
change increaseschange increases
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950-
1960
1960-
1970
1970-
1980
1980-
1990
1990-
2000
2000-
2010
2010-
2020
2020-
2030
2030-
2040
2040-
2050
millions
-10
40
90
140
190
240
290
340
390
1950-
1960
1960-
1970
1970-
1980
1980-
1990
1990-
2000
2000-
2010
2010-
2020
2020-
2030
2030-
2040
2040-
2050
millions
Net population change
Immigration minus emigration
Births minus deaths
Europe
Slowing population
decline
Africa
Reducing
population growth
(but little impact)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1950-
1960
1960-
1970
1970-
1980
1980-
1990
1990-
2000
2000-
2010
2010-
2020
2020-
2030
2030-
2040
2040-
2050
United States
Contributing to
population growth

6. Planning for a smaller labour forcePlanning for a smaller labour force
in more developed regionsin more developed regions
Projected population aged 20-64 (medium variant)Projected population aged 20-64 (medium variant)
77 million
Without
migration
With migration
Million

7. Planning for an ageing populationPlanning for an ageing population
Population aged 60 and over (Population aged 60 and over (percentagespercentages))

8. Young people constitute a majorYoung people constitute a major
proportion of those migratingproportion of those migrating
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Percentage
Age
Distribution of migrant inflows by age to selected countries in Europe, 2008 - 2009
Source: International migration flows to and from selected countries: The 2010 Revision
United Nations, Population Division/DESA

9. Planning for change in working age populationPlanning for change in working age population
Change in working age (15-59) and youth (15-29), 2015 – 2050 (%)Change in working age (15-59) and youth (15-29), 2015 – 2050 (%)

10. 1990 2000 2010 2013
Planning for more international migrants
International migrant stock (millions)
2050
United Nations, Population Division/DESA

11. Numbers of international migrants by
origin and destination, 1990-2013
United Nations, Population Division/DESA

12. Most international migrants resideMost international migrants reside
within their region of birth (2013)within their region of birth (2013)

13. Migration distance isMigration distance is
quite stable over timequite stable over time

14. Proportion of refugees in total migrant stock isProportion of refugees in total migrant stock is
much higher in the South than in the Northmuch higher in the South than in the North
2.4 3.1
1.9
22.5
16.8 16.2
1990 2000 2010
Developed regions
Developing regionsUnited Nations, Population Division/DESA
Refugees in total migrant stock by development group, 1990-2010 (percentage)

15. The international migrant stock:The international migrant stock:
Components of changeComponents of change
Estimated inflow of international migrants by sourceEstimated inflow of international migrants by source
from 2005 to 2010 (mln.)from 2005 to 2010 (mln.)

16. More people will live in citiesMore people will live in cities
Urban and rural population size, 1950 – 2050 (Urban and rural population size, 1950 – 2050 (billionsbillions))

17. ““Shifting demographics”Shifting demographics”
 Europe: Ageing, demand for labour migrantsEurope: Ageing, demand for labour migrants
 Africa: Youth bulge - demographic dividend,Africa: Youth bulge - demographic dividend,
emigration or bothemigration or both
 Asia and Latin Am: smaller (increases in)Asia and Latin Am: smaller (increases in)
working age population (lower emigration?)working age population (lower emigration?)
 North America and Australia/NZ: immigrationNorth America and Australia/NZ: immigration
(from where?) and natural increase(from where?) and natural increase

18. Migration and global development:Migration and global development:
policy prioritiespolicy priorities
1.1. Facilitate orderly, regular and safe migrationFacilitate orderly, regular and safe migration
2.2. Assess labour market needsAssess labour market needs
3.3. Share responsibilities for humanitarian migrationShare responsibilities for humanitarian migration
4.4. Leverage opportunities at origin and destinationLeverage opportunities at origin and destination
(remittances, diaspora, entrepreneurship, etc.)(remittances, diaspora, entrepreneurship, etc.)
5.5. Strengthen integration (non-discrimination)Strengthen integration (non-discrimination)
6.6. Reduce costs (economic, social, human)Reduce costs (economic, social, human)
7.7. Enhance cooperation and coherenceEnhance cooperation and coherence