2nd OECD-AMRO Asian Regional Roundtable

1. Escaping the Middle-income Trap in
Asia
- Setting the scene
Kensuke Tanaka
Head of Asia Desk
OECD Development Centre
19 July 2013, Paris
2nd OECD-AMRO Asian Regional Roundtable

2. Middle income trap issue is complex.
 Definition of middle income
trap
 Growth slowdown or “trap”?
Figure Average GDP Growth Rate of
Asian countries(%)
(source) OECD and IMF

3. • Country specific structural policy issues to avoid
middle income trap – Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia
and Vietnam
 Different initial conditions
 Different comparative advantages
- Does growth model have anything to do with the possibility
of being “trapped”? (manufacturing or services)
 Evolving global environment
- Integration of trade and financial markets
This session will focus on… (1)

4. The structural transformations needed to sustain
growth to avoid “the trap” are…
Cambodia
Agriculture
Human capital
development
Reform of financial
sector
Indonesia
Infrastructure
Education
Social security reform
Malaysia
Human capital
development
Labour market
SME development
Philippines
Infrastructure
Labour market
Education
Singapore
Labour market
SME development
Innovation
Thailand
Education
Healthcare system
Green economy
Viet Nam
Human capital
development
Development of
banking sector
SOEs reform
(Source) Southeast Asian Economic Outlook with
Perspectives on China and India 2013

5. This session will focus on…
This session will focus on… (2)
• Human capital development, infrastructure,
innovation …
• The role of institution
• Some key policy issues
 Productivity –led growth
 Financial system
- The importance of allocating funds to the most efficient uses
 Macroeconomic stability
- Capital flows, exchange rates

6. THANK YOU