presented by Jacob Burke in Asia Water Week 2013, Manila 11-15 March 2013

1. Moving Targets: Irrigation management modernization in
East Asia and the Pacific (EAP)
Jacob Burke (World Bank)
+ Paulus van Hofwegen, Chris Perry,
Thierry Façon, David Dawe, Ian Makin

2. Overview
1. The Regional Study
2. How
3. Why
S f4. Some preliminary findings

3. Irrigation Management Modernization:
A Regional Technical Assistance Studyg y
• Objective:
To identify long term investment priorities for modernizing
irrigation & drainage service delivery in the East Asia & Pacificirrigation & drainage service delivery in the East Asia & Pacific
region (EAP)
• Method:
A ti t f t i i ti & d iA comparative assessment of current irrigation & drainage
service provision and a view to the future (‘future-watch’)
• Rationale:
Modernization needs shared experience, best practices and
lessons learnt but also needs appreciation of economic
transitions
• Drivers
– Economic transformation & off-farm opportunities,
– urbanization & transitions in irrigated smallholder
agriculture,agriculture,
– increased pressure on land and water resources &
– amplified climatic risk.

4. How
• National studies & lessons learned
• Simple analytical framework to allow comparison
• A regional Synthesis Report
• Participating Countries:
– China, Indonesia, Vietnam (WB funded National Studies)China, Indonesia, Vietnam (WB funded National Studies)
– Australia, Japan, (evolution of modernization in OECD countries)
– Thailand, Malaysia (FAO funded)
• Timetable
﹣ Country assessments ongoing – presentation of drafts 12 March
Synthesis and Consultations; March May 2013﹣ Synthesis and Consultations; March-May 2013
﹣ Output: Draft Synthesis Report and guidelines June 2013

5. Why a focus on modernization?
9
10
Annual average
7.0 to 9.0
• WBG I&D: 31% of IBRD &
IDA agriculture lending –
dominant but small
0.9
6
7
8
llions
7.0
dominant but small
• Quality lending into
existing asset management
will count 1.8
3.4
1.2
2
3
4
5
US$bil
4.2
will count
1.2
2.7
1.8
0
1
2
2006-08 2010-12 2013-2015
P j t dProjected
IFC
Agriculture production and markets
Other agriculture related investments

6. World agricultural land 1961 – 2007 (million ha)
(2009 baseline: I&D accounts for 44% global production off 16% arable land)
1600
Arable land and permanent crops
y = 4087 x + 1E+06
R² = 0.9543
y = 292 x + 1E+06
R² 0 0867
1200
1400
Arable land and permanent crops
Rain‐fed land R² = 0.0867
800
1000
Rain fed land
y = 3795 x + 127865
R² = 0.998400
600
0
200
1960 196 19 0 19 1980 198 1990 199 2000 200 2010
Land equipped for irrigation
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

7. Diets are diversifying:
East Asia: Share of dietary energy supply 1960-2007East Asia: Share of dietary energy supply 1960 2007

8. Cropping patterns also changing in some countries:
China harvested areas 1976-2011

9. But not in others:
Malaysia harvested areas 1976 – 2011Malaysia harvested areas 1976 2011

10. The background to modernization in EAP
• Total arable land ~250 million ha. Equipped area~90 million ha.
• Deltas under pressure & groundwater will need to be factored in.
• Some limited room for further expansion, but where and how? In
developed basins intensification will need higher water
productivity
• Farm incomes falling – widening rural-urban income gap.
• Irrigation management lagging – modernization of institutions as
a much an issue as modernization of irrigation schemesa much an issue as modernization of irrigation schemes.
• High opportunity cost of rehabilitation and re-engineering to get
desired levels of flexibility.
• Irrigation assets at risk. How resilient is the infrastructure... and
how resilient the institutions?
l / l l h• Basin planning/negotiation processes now more pluralistic than
‘integrated’ but general disconnect between water resource
management and agriculture sector.

11. Preliminary Findings
• Past may be no guide to the future – but historical evolution
instructive.
• By the time the style and level of service is organized, the client
might have moved on (Malaysia)
• Irrigation systems much more ‘open’ than ever before but the
sub-sector needs to make a better case for its allocation, use
and quality of return flows (China and the ‘redlines’)

12. Short to medium term analysisShort to medium term analysis
• Service oriented management will need more participation
skills & information push (Thailand)
• Be selective – a modernization index (Indonesia)
• Professionalization a priority (Malaysia)
• I&D services can be linked to improved ET managementI&D services can be linked to improved ET management
(China)
• Revenue sources are changing (China)g g ( )

13. Long term analysis – ‘future-watch’
The basic FAO AT2030/50 projections for EAP
• Production of irrigated food staples will continue to dominate butg p
annual growth rates will slow ~0.5% by 2050.
• Equipped areas projected to expand only by 6 million ha. Yields
will have to increase by 85% and cropping intensities by 15% towill have to increase by 85% and cropping intensities by 15% to
satisfy the supply-utilization accounts.
Th i iThe uncertainties
• Calorie saturation by 2050? Will regional market connections
continue to spread production risk?
• Hydrological and climate futures tricky – GCMs not happy with
moisture.
• Baseline is patchy – where are the smallholder irrigators, what are
their incomes and their exit strategies?

14. The ‘positives’The positives
• Maintaining farm incomes will drive land consolidation
• Intensification and transition to precision agriculture inevitable –
where labour substitution/mechanization is possible
• Capacity to operate modernized irrigation and drainage services
will need training to start now
At b i l l if t ‘i t ti ’ th ff ti i tit ti l• At basin level, if not ‘integration’ then more effective institutional
collaboration to spread risk. Farmer interests can be linked to
basin planning and operation.
• At scheme level, costs of reviewing basic competencies and
professionalism in delivering services are small (RAP/MASSCOTE)

15. Flexible hardware = flexible institutions?
Inflatable weir Bang Pakong basin ThailandInflatable weir. Bang Pakong basin, Thailand

16. Thank oThank you
A collaboration in EAP