Outils pour traiter les points de vulnérabilité par Olivier Mesly (webinaire du PMI-Montréal)

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Outils pour traiter les points de
vulnérabilité
Par Olivier Mesly
Le 22 septembre 2016
De 12h00 à 13h00
PMI-Montréal
Note: Aucune partie de cette présentation – texte, images, tableaux, etc. – ne peut être
utilisée sans l’autorisation écrite d’Olivier Mesly. Tous droits réservés©.
Olivier Mesly© - Points de vulnérabilité

2
AGENDA
Conférencier - portrait
Introduction
Risques ≠ Points de Vulnérabilité (PDV)
Les 4 P du project
Que faire ? - Outils
Conclusion et questions
2

3
CONFÉRENCIER
Auteur
Professeur et consultant
3

4
intrants extrantsTransformation
4
UN PROJET
Introduction

5
FAISABILITÉ DE PROJETS - ASPECTS OUBLIÉS DE L'ANALYSE PAR OLIVIER MESLY, © 2015 5
PROJET
INNOVATEUR
UNIQUE
IMPLIQUE DES PARTIES
PRENANTES
CONTIENT DES DÉFIS
TECHNIQUES
DURÉE
BESOIN, OPPORTUNITÉ, IDÉE
UN PROJET

6
CALENDRIER
DÉFIS COÛTS
CALENDRIER
DÉFIS COÛTS
UN PROJET

7
Gestation
Planification Mobilisation Déploiement
Réalisation
et
évaluation
(Inspiré de PMBOK 5)
UN PROJET

88
Risques ≠ PDV
So-called “social risks”
identified by the Shi, Q., Liu,
Y., Zuo, J., Pan, N., and Ma, G.
(2015) (p. 489)
Demotivating factors identified1
by Oyedele,
L.O. (2013). Analysis of architects' demotivating
factors in design firms. International Journal of
Project Management 31, 342–354, p. 347
Underlying
Construct
“Social conflicts”
“Poor communication within design teams” (5)
“Poor co-ordination of design teams” (11)
“Uncooperative behaviours of clients/other
project stakeholders” (15)
“Counterproductive behaviours from co-
workers” (23)
“Distrust and dishonesty among design team
members” (38)
Conflicts
“Unfair land compensation”;
“Unfair house demolition
compensation”;
“Inadequate salaries and rewards” (6)
“Inadequate opportunity for career
development/promotion” (14)
Fairness
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

99
Risques ≠ PDV
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité
•Conflits sociaux
•Sentiment d’iniquité

1010
Ceci est un risque
van Wyk., R., Bowen, P., and Akintoye, A. (2008). Project risk management practice: The case of a South African utility company. International Journal of Project
Management 26, 149–163. The Western Cape Recovery Plan project (pp. 151, 156)
Risk Explanation
“Regulatory risk that encompasses the need for
clear regulatory framework and adequate price
increases to ensure long-term sustainability”
“outsourced information technology service
contract”
“Potential for commissioning delays due to the
rotor from France not being identical to the one
removed to Rosherville”
“Unavailability of Palmiet hydro-electric
supply”
“Fog and mist”
“Extent of consumer adoption of energy
efficiency measures less than expected”
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

1111
Ceci est un risque
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité
•Règles
•Information extérieure
•Fournisseurs extérieurs
•Brouillard
•Réaction des consommateurs

1212
Ceci est une vulnérabilité
Vulnerability Explanation
“The ongoing ability to maintain consistent
supply”
“Aging plant”
“The ability to respond to changes in the
industry arising from the proposed new
Electricity Supply Industry in South Africa
while meeting the shareholder’s objective
for the company”
“The impact of HIV/AIDS”
“Insufficient numbers of authorized staff
for manual switching operations”
“Poor operational communications”

1313
Ceci est une vulnérabilité
•Habileté à maintenir l’approvisionnement
•État de l’usine
•Habileté à répondre aux changements
•Nombre insuffisant de travailleurs
•Communication pauvre

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RISQUES
RISQUES
socioculturel
environnemental
technologique
marketingorganisationnel
politico-légal
financierFinancier
Politique
Organisationnel
Environnemental
Technologique
Marketing
Légal
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

1515
RISQUES ET VULNÉRABILITÉS
RISQUES
PDV
U (SM)
RISQUES = K / PDV
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité
U (SM) – Utilité de la stratégie managériale

1616
RISQUES
PDV
U (SM)
A
B
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

1717
RISQUES
PDV
U (SM)
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

1818
RISQUES
PDV
U (DP)
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

1919
Les 4 P du projet
Plan
Pouvoir
Processus Personnes
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

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intrants
Plan
Pouvoir
(…)
Processus
Personnes
Mécanique
Humain
Les 4 P du projet
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

2121
Plan et
Processus
Impacts
Produits
BOK
Transformation
Personnes
et Pouvoir
Mécanique
Humain
PDV
Les 4 P du projet
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

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Exemples de vulnérabilités
Source: Shore (2008, p. 11, 8). Systematic Biases and Culture in Project Failures. Project Management Journal 39(4), 5–16.
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité
•Microsoft XBox
•Guarde côtière
•Navette Columbia
•Projet Mars

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Example Problem
Symptom: psychological
or structural (Project
triangle or 4 P’s)
Microsoft Xbox 360 “Groupthink was also an issue” 1
Psychological
(collaboration)
Coast Guard Maritime
Domain Awareness
Project
“Project leaders succumbed to the
illusion of control bias”2
Psychological (control)
Columbia Shuttle
“It was a culture where people were
unwilling to speak up”3
Psychological
(control/collaboration)
Mars Climate Orbiter
and Mars Polar
Lander
“Selective perception… design team,
failed to coordinate with the operational
team at NASA.” 4
Psychological
(perception,
collaboration)
Source: Shore (2008, p. 11, 8). Systematic Biases and Culture in Project Failures. Project Management Journal 39(4), 5–16.
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

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Source: Winch (2013). Escalation in major projects: Lessons from the Channel Fixed Link. International Journal of Project Management 31, 724–734.
Source: Flyvbjerg (2008). Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice. European Planning
Studies16 (1), 3–21.
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité
•Aéroport de Denver
•Métro de New York
•Eurotunnel
•FIFA 2014

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Denver Baggage
Handling
“Overconfidence…[and ] the sunk cost”1
Psychological (self) and
structural (costs)
New York City
Subway
Communications
System
“Conservatism, overconfidence, and
illusion of control.” 2
Psychological (self,
perception, control)
Denver International
Airport
“Exceeded the original budget by 200%
and was delivered 16 months over
schedule”3
Structural (budget)
Eurotunnel
Average 69% increase in costs 1986 vs.
19944
Structural (costs)
FIFA World Cup
2014 project budget
increased from the
“Originally estimated €1 billion to €11
billion.” 5
Structural (costs)
Merck Vioxx “Sunk cost trap dominated” 6
Structural (costs)
Source: Winch (2013). Escalation in major projects: Lessons from the Channel Fixed Link. International Journal of Project Management 31, 724–734.
Source: Flyvbjerg (2008). Curbing Optimism Bias and Strategic Misrepresentation in Planning: Reference Class Forecasting in Practice. European Planning
Studies16 (1), 3–21.
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

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Source: Brady and Davies (2010). From hero to hubris – Reconsidering the project management of Heathrow’s Terminal 5. International Journal of Project
Management 28, 151–157
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité
•Airbus 380
•Aéroport Heathrow

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Airbus A380
“Failed to transform itself from a
balkanized organization into an
integrated company”1
Heathrow Airport T5
(finished on time and
within budget but
with a number of
problems at launch)2
1) troubles locating parked cars
2) Signage problems.
3) baggage handling delays
4) unserviceable escalators
5) electrical problems
6) guidance systems incorrectly
calibrated
7) Failure of the automated temperature
controls.
Source: Brady and Davies (2010). From hero to hubris – Reconsidering the project management of Heathrow’s Terminal 5. International Journal of Project
Management 28, 151–157
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

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Source: Dissatisfaction factor on the part of the client as per Yu-Chih Liu, J., and Rizki Yuliani, A. (2016). Differences Between Clients’ and Vendors’ Perceptions of IT
Outsourcing Risks: Project Partnering as the Mitigation Approach. Project Management Journal 47(1), 45–58
VULNÉRABILITÉS – aspect humain
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité
•Appréhension
•Confiance
•Collaboration
•Engagement

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Source: Dissatisfaction factor on the part of the client as per Yu-Chih Liu, J., and Rizki Yuliani, A. (2016). Differences Between Clients’ and Vendors’ Perceptions of IT
Outsourcing Risks: Project Partnering as the Mitigation Approach. Project Management Journal 47(1), 45–58
Psychological aspect
Dissatisfaction factors Underlying construct 4 P’s
“Inadequate staffing” --- PEOPLE
“Lack of team morale” ---- PEOPLE
“Biased portrayal by the vendor” Apprehension PEOPLE
“Lack of top management support” Collaboration POWER
“Lack of communication between the client and
vendor
Collaboration PROCESS
“Lack of vendor commitment” Commitment PEOPLE
“Lack of active management of the vendor” Commitment POWER
“Conflict between the client and vendor” Conflict PEOPLE
“Lack of experience and expertise with project
activities”
Trust PEOPLE
“Lack of project management know-how” Trust POWER
“Lack of knowledge transfer” Trust PROCESS
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

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Oyedele, L.O. (2013). Analysis of architects' demotivating factors in design firms. International Journal of Project Management 31, 342–354
Demotivating factors (examples)
#1
Underlying
Construct
4 P’s
“Perceptions of lack of respect among co-
workers”
41 Apprehension
People
“Uncooperative behaviours of
clients/other project stakeholders”; “Poor
communication within design teams”
15, 5 Collaboration
People
“Inadequate commitment among design
teams members”
21 Commitment
People
“Incompatibility of design team
members”; “Unhealthy competition
among co-workers”
12, 14 Conflict
People
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

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VULNÉRABILITÉS –aspect humain
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité
•Contrôle
•Transparence
•Équité
•Soi

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“Inept leadership personal behaviours
(e.g. dictatorial, bullying,
Intimidation, etc.)”
8 Control
Power
“Inadequate salaries and rewards” 6 Fairness Process
“The working environment is focused on
negative criticism”
37 Self
Process
“Lack of open interaction between leaders
and subordinates”; “Poor feedback and
inappropriate evaluation system”
17, 19 Transparency
Power
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

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Escalation determinants as per Meyer, W.G. (2014). The Effect of Optimism Bias on the Decision to Terminate Failing Projects. Project Management Journal 45(4), 7–20
Some escalation determinants Underlying construct 4 P’s
“Optimism and illusion of control” Control Power
“Invulnerability effect” Control Power
“Self-justification” Self ----
“Norms for consistency” Self Process
“Saving face” Self People
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

34
Source: Dissatisfaction factor on the part of the client as per Yu-Chih Liu, J., and Rizki Yuliani, A. (2016). Differences Between Clients’ and Vendors’ Perceptions of IT Outsourcing Risks:
Project Partnering as the Mitigation Approach. Project Management Journal 47(1), 45–58
VULNÉRABILITÉS aspect mécanique
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité
• Calendrier
• Coûts
• Qualité

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Source: Dissatisfaction factor on the part of the client as per Yu-Chih Liu, J., and Rizki Yuliani, A. (2016). Differences Between Clients’ and Vendors’ Perceptions of IT Outsourcing Risks:
Project Partnering as the Mitigation Approach. Project Management Journal 47(1), 45–58
Project triangle
Dissatisfaction factors Parameters 4 P’s
“Vendor financial instability” Cost PLAN
“Failure to consider all costs” Costs PLAN
“Lack of documentation management” Quality Process
“Lack of effective development methodology” Quality PROCESS
“Incomplete contracting” Quality PLAN
“Improper definitions of roles and responsibilities” Quality PLAN
“Poor change management” Quality POWER
“Inadequate planning” Quality/Time PLAN
“Requirements misunderstanding (or unclear) Quality… PLAN
“Lack of schedule and budget management” Time, cost PLAN
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

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Project triangle
Demotivating factors (examples) #1
Parameter
“Working excessively long hours” 9 Time
“Design decisions are dictated by cost and not quality factors” 3 Cost
“Clients demand for radical and high-degree of innovation in
design”; “Frequent design changes/variations”
2, 3 Quality
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

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Escalation determinants as per Meyer, W.G. (2014). The Effect of Optimism Bias on the Decision to Terminate Failing Projects. Project Management Journal 45(4), 7–20
Project triangle
Some Escalation determinants Parameter 4 P’s
“Government intervention” Control Power
“Legal implications” Costs Power
“Sunk cost effect” Costs Plan
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

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VULNÉRABILITÉS – humain et mécanique
Hwang, B.-G., Zhao, X., and Goh, K.J. (2014), p. 704 and demotivating factors (closely associated by us with the work of as per Oyedele, L.O. (2013). Analysis of architects' demotivating factors
in design firms. International Journal of Project Management 31, 342–354.
•Un mélange humain et mécanique

39
VULNÉRABILITÉS – humain et mécanique
Hwang, B.-G., Zhao, X., and Goh, K.J. (2014), p. 704 and demotivating factors (closely associated by us with the work of as per Oyedele, L.O. (2013). Analysis of architects' demotivating factors
in design firms. International Journal of Project Management 31, 342–354.
Demand Nature of problem
Potential Demotivating factors (p.
347)1
“Replacement of materials by
the client”
Technical
“Clients demand for radical and high-
degree of innovation in design” (2)
“Obstinate nature of the
client”
Psychological
“Difficulty in understanding
idiosyncratic and tacit needs of clients”
(10)
“Uncooperative behaviours of
clients/other project stakeholders” (15)
“Financial problems faced by
the client”
Cost ----
“Impediment in prompting the
decision making of the client”
Psychological/Social ---
“Change in specification by
the client”
Technical
“Unrealistic project demands from
clients” (2, 22)
“Inadequate/incomprehensive
project objectives by the
client”
Cognitive ----
“Change of plans or scope by
the client”
Could be many
causes
----

4040
PROBLÈMES IDENTIFIÉS PAR LES
MANAGERS
% 4 P
MANQUE D’ENGAGEMENT 59
PERSONNES ET
POUVOIR
COMMUNICATION 54
CONFLITS 35
RESSOURCES INSUFFISANTES 69 PROCESSUS
BUTS AMBIGÜS 67
PLAN
CALENDRIER IRRÉALISTE 63
PLANIFICATION PAUVRE 56
CHANGEMENTS INAPPROPRIÉS 42
Source:MeredithetMantelé(2009)
VULNERABILITÉS
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

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OUTILS
41
• DÉFINITION
• RISQUES ET VULNÉRABILITÉS
• POTENTIEL
• PARAMÈTRES
• BASES DE SUCCÈS ET ERREURS À ÉVITER
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

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• Un effort concret
• Réalisation d’un résultat unique et innovateur
• Répondant à un besoin
• A un début et une fin
• Implique des personnes
• Comporte des défis
• A des impacts positifs et possiblement négatifs
• Génère une documentation officielle
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilitéDÉFINITION

44
44
CALENDRIER
RISQUES
COÛTS
VULNÉRABILITÉ
NORMES
V
P
M
D
R
RISQUES ET VULNÉRABILITÉ
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

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PROJECT
PEOPLE
PLAN
PROCESSES
POWER
45
Contrôle
Transparence
Équité
Confiance
Collaboration
Engagement
POTENTIEL
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité
POUVOIR
PROCESSUSPERSONNES
PROJET

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FLEXIBILITÉ
ÉCHANGE
D’INFORMATION
RÉSOLUTION
COMMUNE DE
PROBLÈMES
ORIENTATION
COOPÉRATION
POTENTIEL
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

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SOURCES
ENCOURAGER DÉCOURAGER
POUVOIR
o Adaptation et flexibilité
o Effort participatif
o Qualité de l’information
o Sentiment de sécurité
o Leadership faible
o Manque d’esprit d’équipe
PERSONNES
o L’intégration
o La compétence et
expérience
o La multidisciplinarité
o L’ouverture d’esprit
o La communication pauvre
o Les conflits
o Les divergences de points de vue
o L’absence d’esprit gagnant-
gagnant
o Le dénigrement du projet
o La résistance aux changements
SUCCÈS ET ERREURS
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

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SOURCES ENCOURAGER DÉCOURAGER
PROCESSUS o Adhérer au plan initial
o L’absence de plan de
contingence
PLAN
o La compréhension
mutuelle
o La gestion des
objectifs
o Les objectifs irréalisables
o La planification déficiente
SUCCÈS ET ERREURS
Olivier Mesly© -
Points de
vulnérabilité

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Questions
Merci !
Olivier Mesly
53

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