Presentation GREATLX Conference allen vasconcelos 2050 simulator by edp

1. Initiative GREAT European Development Partners Co-organization
2050 Simulator
Do you Accept this Challenge for Portugal?
Allen VASCONCELOS

2. 2050 Simulator
Portuguese case
Allen Vasconcelos
Energy Planning Department

3. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013
The 2050 simulator is a simplified model of reality.
The objective of this exercise is simply to convey, in a
intuitive and educational form, the key variables of
the energy sector and the way to reach its
decarbonization.
As a consequence, the simulator’s results should not
be interpreted as exact estimations, and they do not
necessarily represent EDP’s vision regarding the
Energy Policy options that should be taken in the
2050 timeframe.
Disclaimer
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4. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013
Question categories
selector (Prices,
Demand, Generation
and Emissions)
Answer switch
(Bottom – BaU
Top - disruptive)
Chart
legend
Outputs selector
(charts/tables)
Output
charts/tables
Menu Language
selector
Horizontal
scroll for
additional
questions
Emissions
barometer
(2050
emissions
vs. 1990)
The 2050 simulator allows users to view the energy sector's evolution given
their forecast about future technology adoption and consumption behaviors
Your decisions
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5. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013
The path definition consists in answering 32 questions about energy prices,
demand and supply evolution, and GHG emissions
Question
categories
Area Question Units
Answer
Question description
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
Prices
Fuels Oil price $'10/bbl 50 130 200 n.d. Oil price by 2050
Fuels Coal price $'10/ton 50 110 200 n.d. Coal price by 2050
Fuels Natural gas price $'10/Mbtu 5 11 20 n.d. Natural gas prices by 2050
Other CO2 price €'10/ton 20 100 200 n.d. CO2 price by 2050
Demand
Growth
Residential Residential non-power energy demand % 2% 1% 0% -1% Residential current non-power energy consumption from 2010 to 2050 CAGR
Residential Residential energy efficiency in electricity % 0% 25% 50% 100% Degree of fulfillment of energy efficiency potential to reduce residential power demand by 2050
Services Services non-power energy demand % 2% 1% 0% -1% Services current non-power energy consumption from 2010 to 2050 CAGR
Services Services energy efficiency in electricity % 0% 25% 50% 100% Degree of fulfillment of energy efficiency potential to reduce services power demand by 2050
Industry Industrial demand % 2% 1% 0% -1% Industrial energy consumption from 2010 to 2050 CAGR
Transport Road transports demand % 10% 5% -5% -10% Road transportation energy consumption evolution by 2050 vs. 2010
Fuel
Switching
Residential Electrification of residential energy demand % 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of residential energy demand electrification by 2050
Services Electrification of services energy demand % 60% 70% 85% 100% Percentage of services energy demand electrification by 2050
Industry Electrification of industrial energy demand % 25% 30% 40% 50% Percentage of industrial energy demand electrification by 2050
Transport Electrification of road light transports % 10% 25% 50% 75% Percentage of road electric transports by 2050
Transport Fuel switching of road transports % 10% 25% 50% 75% Percentage fuel switching from oil to gas/biofuel of road non-electric transports by 2050
Transport Electrification of non-road transports % 10% 20% 30% 40% Percentage of non-road electric transports by 2050
Transport Fuel switching of non-road transports % 10% 25% 50% 75% Percentage fuel switching from oil to gas/biofuel of non-road non-electric transports by 2050
Installed
capacity and
generation
Power Hydroelectric generation TWh 18 20 22 24
Gross hydro power generation (including pumping) by 2050: current 12 TWh and expected ~20
TWh by 2020 (average hydro year)
Power Nuclear power MW 0 1.600 3.200 4.800
Nuclear capacity by 2050 (0, 1, 2 or 3 nuclear power plants): no current nor expected capacity by
2020
Power Onshore wind power MW 5.500 10.000 14.000 18.000 Onshore wind capacity by 2050: current 4,400 MW and ~5,300 MW expected by 2020
Power Offshore wind power MW 50 1.000 2.500 5.000 Offshore wind capacity by 2050: current 2 MW with no additional capacity expected by 2020
Power Biomass and MSW power MW 350 1.000 2.000 3.000 Biomass and MSW capacity by 2050: current 290 MW and ~370 MW expected by 2020
Power Solar PV power MW 250 2.500 5.000 10.000 Solar PV (large scale) capacity by 2050: current 130 MW and ~180 MW expected by 2020
Power Solar CSP power MW 50 2.500 5.000 10.000 Solar CSP capacity by 2050: no current capacity but ~50 MW expected by 2020
Power Geothermal power MW 50 500 1.000 2.000 Geothermal capacity by 2050: current 30 MW with no additional capacity expected by 2020
Power Ocean power MW 50 1.000 2.000 4.000 Ocean capacity by 2050: no current capacity but ~6 MW expected by 2020
Power CHP power MW 2.000 4.000 6.500 9.000 CHP capacity by 2050: current 1,800 MW and ~2,000 MW expected by 2020
Power Distributed generation power MW 250 2.500 5.000 10.000
Distributed generation capacity by 2050 (Solar PV): current 60 MW and ~320 MW expected by
2020
Power Power imports TWh 0 5 10 20 Power imports by 2050: historical values from last 5 years range 5 - 10 TWh
CO2 Emissions
Power Installed CCS capacity in the power sector MW 0 2.800 4.000 5.200 CCS power capacity by 2050 (from 0 up to 5 power plants, starting operations from 2025)
Industry Industrial processes with CCS % 0% 25% 50% 100% Percentage of industrial processes with CCS by 2050 (starting operations from 2025)
Geosequestra
tion
Emissions' reduction due to
geosequestration
MtonCO2 0 1 2 3
CO2 geosequestration by 2050 (reducing GHG emissions from 0 to 3 Mton/year, starting
operations from 2025)
Your decisions:
1. Business as Usual scenario
2. Minor transformations required
3. Medium transformations
necessary
4. Scenario involving major
transformations (without
breaking the laws of physics!)
5 groups of questions:
1. Prices
2. Demand growth
3. Fuel Switching
4. Generation technologies
5. CO2 capture
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6. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013
The simulator allows for immediate visualization of the path impacts along
several dimensions in graph or numeric format
Graphic
impact of
resulting
pathway
Numerical
impact of
resulting
pathway
2050 Outputs
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7. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013
Energy flows output
Sankey graphs
Performance output
Emissions vs. Cost
Outputs also include energy flows and performance data
Your pathway
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Primary
energies
Transformation
into power
Final energy by
sectors
Most cost-efficient
pathways

8. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013
Emissions vs. Cost
% vs. ‘000 M€’10
Emissions vs. Difficulty
% vs. %
Performance graphs
Electrificati
on
Balanced
green
Fossil fuels
Nuclear
Full
efficiency
Business as
usual
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0 5 10 15 20 25
Cost of energy (x1000 M€’10)
GHGemissionsvs.1990(%)
Electrificati
on
Balanced
green
Fossil fuels
Nuclear
Full
efficiency
Business as
usual
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
GHGemissionsvs.1990(%)
Difficulty Level (%)
The simulator includes 5 pre-defined scenarios that can be compared with the
user's chosen pathway
There are no right or wrong answers! Only more cost-effective ways to reduce GHG emissions
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9. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013
Minimize the difficulty
of implementation
Objectives
Minimize GHG
emissions
Minimize total cost of
energy
The simulator's objective function is to (1) minimize greenhouse gas emissions,
(2) at the lowest cost, and (3) at the lowest difficulty level
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10. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013
www.2050.edp.pt
Do you accept this challenge?
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11. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013
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12. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013
Associated Partners
Media Partners
Sponsors
GREAT European Development Partners
Institutional Partners

13. © Copyright EDP – Energias de Portugal, S.A. 2013
http://www.projectgreat.eu