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The CO2 Challenge for Passenger Cars in Europe
and the Potential Role and Impacts of Emissions
                    Trading

                       Patrick ten Brink
          Senior Fellow and Head of Brussels Office
     Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP)
                          ptenbrink@ieep.eu
                             www.ieep.eu


            Elements build on work by the IEEP Transport Team
                    Malcolm Fergusson & Ian Skinner
                    and partners TNO, CAIR and LAT

                                 Lyon
                            5 December 2006
Presentation Structure


•   Context – history and emissions from transport
•   The strategy and its measures
•   The performance and the remaining challenge
•   Insights on instruments, targets and costs
A Brief History
        •   1990s: Fuel economy not improving

        •   1993: EU ratifies Framework Convention on Climate Change

        •   1995: Commission publishes passenger car CO2 strategy
             • target 120g/km by 2005 (or 2010 at latest)

        •   1997: Carmakers threatened with legislation

        •   1998/9: Voluntary Agreements with manufacturers’ associations

        •   2000: Monitoring Mechanism (1753/2000) established

        •   2001: CO2 Labelling required (1999/94)

        •   2005/6: Review of Passenger Car CO2 Strategy


Source: Malcolm Fergusson
Transport Sector GHG emissions




http://dataservice.eea.europa.eu/atlas/viewdata/viewpub.asp?id=2104
A Diverse Europe - Trends in transport GHG
               emissions by country (1990-2003)




http://dataservice.eea.europa.eu/atlas/viewdata/viewpub.asp?id=2083
Growth in Road Transport contributions




http://dataservice.eea.europa.eu/atlas/viewdata/viewpub.asp?id=2082
Within transport, cars are the main energy user
                             450

                             400                                                      Ships
                                                                                      Aircraft
                             350
                                                                                      Rail & inl.
                             300                                                      shipping

                             250
                     Mtoe




                                                                                      Cars
                             200

                             150

                             100

                                                                                      Lorries
                              50

                               0
                               1990   1992       1994   1996    1998   2000    2002


                            road   road   rail     inland navigation   air    sea

Source: T&E Presentation by Jos Dings building on DGENV presentation
Transport and GHG emissions – a problem sector




Source: T&E Presentation by Jos Dings; originally from EEA TERM Energy Factsheet
Transport pollutants – GHGs a key challenge




http://dataservice.eea.europa.eu/atlas/viewdata/viewpub.asp?id=848
Passenger Cars CO2 Strategy: 3 pillars
  EU objective: To achieve a fleet average of new passenger car of 120 g CO2/km by
    2012 (equivalent to 4.5 l/100 km diesel or 5l/100km gasoline)

                                            Three pillars
      Agreements with car industry
              Negotiated in 1999/2000 with the European, Japanese and Korean car manufacturers
              associations (resp. ACEA, JAMA & KAMA)
              Member States provide independent monitoring data on new cars sold
              Target: 140g CO2/km by 2008/2009                 Annual Joint Reports
      Consumer information
              Directive 1999/94/EC adopted in December 1999 and amended in 2003
              Possible future improvements: harmonised label with energy efficiency classes, and inclusion
              of light commercial vehicles in addition to cars
      Fiscal measures
              July 2005 Commission proposal for a Council directive (COM(2005)261) aims at requiring MS
              that have taxes to base their calculation on CO2 emissions
              Currently being discussed in Council


                     Annual Communications to the Council and Parliament - see
                          Commission web pages: EU CO2 and cars strategy:
Source: DGENV Presentation http://ec.europa.eu/environment/co2/co2_home.htm
Consumer information
system (1999/94/EC)

• labelling of fuel consumption and CO2
emissions

• the production of a fuel consumption
and CO2 emissions guide


• displaying posters in car showrooms


• the inclusion of fuel consumption and CO2
emissions data in advertising, brochures,
etc.




                       Danish Energy Label
Fiscal Measures – nation wide and local
Fuel tax; car tax schemes and the London’s congestion charge

Fuel Taxes
   UK fuel price escalator
   Petrol and diesel tax differentials
Car taxes
   UK - registration taxes moved to CO2 rating

 London Congestion charge
    Started in February 2003
    Run by Transport for London, TfL
    Covers 21km², 1.3% of greater London
    Being expanded and price going up

              www.t-e.nu
The ‘CO2 Agreement’ with Carmakers

      • Community target was 120g/km by 2005/2010
      • Commission negotiated with Associations
      • Agreement reached on 140g/km
            • ACEA by 2008; JAMA & KAMA by 2009; Interim targets 2003/4
      • Monitoring Mechanism (1753/2000) established

           EU targets in
       international context

      All going in the same
             direction
     Japan early leader; EU
       plan to go further.




http://dataservice.eea.europa.eu/atlas/viewdata/viewpub.asp?id=2112
Voluntary Commitments:
                                                                    major efforts still needed…
  12.4% reduction in 2004 compared to 1995, out of total 25% required by 2008/9…

                                  210
                                                                                  EU15 level in 1995:
                                  200
                                                                                  186 gCO2/km                                        Voluntary
                                  190                                                                                                commitments:
       g CO2/km, annual average




                                                                                                                                     140 g CO2/km in
                                  180                                                                                                2008/9

                                  170

                                  160

                                  150

                                  140

                                  130
                                                                                                                                      EU objective: 120 gCO2/km
                                  120

                                  110
                                        1995

                                               1996

                                                      1997

                                                             1998

                                                                    1999

                                                                           2000

                                                                                  2001

                                                                                         2002

                                                                                                2003

                                                                                                       2004

                                                                                                              2005

                                                                                                                       2006

                                                                                                                              2007

                                                                                                                                       2008

                                                                                                                                              2009

                                                                                                                                                     2010

                                                                                                                                                            2011

                                                                                                                                                                   2012

                                                                                                                                                                          2013

                                                                                                                                                                                 2014
                                               ACEA                               JAMA                               KAMA                              EU-15

                                               ACEA (required)                    JAMA (required)                    KAMA (required)



Source: DGENV presentation CO2 & Cars
Progress to Date
             Some, but it looks like the targets will be missed


                            220


                            200


                            180
            grammes CO2/k




                            160


                            140
                                             ACEA                   target ACEA
                                             JAMA                   target JA A
                                                                             M /KAMA
                                             KA A
                                               M                    EU target 2010
                            120              trend ACEA             trend JA A
                                                                            M
                                             trend KAMA             EU target 2012


                            100
                              1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012




Source: T&E Presentation by Jos Dings
How well are manufacturers on track?
             Different challenges for different manufacturers




Source: Oct 25 T&E brand by brand progress report
The CO2 challenge
Increasingly serious concern that the current agreement
   targets will not be reached
Increasing realisation that a new self commitment will not
   likely result in the 120g/km target being achieved.


Increasing political discourse on need for strict targets.
But how, much will this cost, and what can help reduce the
  cost?


Studies for DGENV by IEEP, TNO and CAIR
Study for DGENT by TNO, IEEP and LAT
The Study for DGENV by IEEP et al
Service contract to carry out economic analysis and business impact
 assessment of CO2 emissions reduction measures in the automotive
                                 sector

                           Patrick ten Brink
                             Ian Skinner
                          Malcolm Fergusson
                            Dawn Haines
         IEEP - Institute for European Environmental Policy

                          Richard Smokers
                         Erik van der Burgwal
                           Raymond Gense
                       TNO, The Netherlands

                            Peter Wells
                          Paul Nieuwenhuis
         CAIR - Centre for Automotive Industry Research,
         Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, UK

See http://ec.europa.eu/environment/co2/pdf/cars_ia_final_report.pdf
Aim of the work
The aim of the service contract was to assess the impacts of trading
   scheme(s) that would allow the target of 120g/km average specific
   CO2 emissions from new registrations of passenger cars to be met by
   2012.

Assessment of impact on manufacturers, society and consumer covered the following
   aspects:
• Manufacturer: costs, potential problems of vehicles not meeting requirements and
   not being allowed on the market, trading costs and benefits
• Society: as above, including the value of fuel savings but excluding taxes
• Consumer: impact on availability of vehicles, up front price effect and savings.
• Environment: CO2 and fuel savings.
Targets and Instruments

The work looked at 3 types of targets and three instruments:
• Targets
    • a % reduction from a reference year,
    • a sloped target curve linked to utility criteria (several variations
      assessed),
    • and a fixed emissions target to be met by all (120g/km)
• Instruments:
    • Emission reduction requirements for individual vehicles;
    • a manufacturer’s bubble (ie the manufacturer as a whole can
      meet the target, effectively allowing burden within the
      manufacturer’s fleet); and
    • a trading scheme (ie that allows trading between all
      manufacturers and hence effectively sharing the burden across the
      industry as a whole).
Utility function and potential target
 Specific CO2
  emissions
                            700

                                           CO2 [g/km] of cars on the market in 2002
                                           Utility based limit values petrol 2012
                            600            Utility based limit values diesel 2012
                                           Linear (CO2 [g/km] of cars on the market in 2002)
                                           Linear (Utility based limit values petrol 2012)


                            500
      CO2 emission [g/km]




                                                                                                                              y = 8.4146x
                            400




                            300


                                                                                                                              y = 5.7998x
                            200




                            100




                             0
                                  0    5             10             15            20            25             30   35   40     45          50
                                                                                       Utility (V^2/3*P^1/3)
(source: IEEP et al (2004), building on data from Polk
                                                                                          Utility
Technological options for reducing emissions
                                              Petrol vehicles                                  Diesel vehicles
                            Reduced engine friction losses                    Reduced engine friction losses
                            DI / homogeneous charge (stoichiometric)          4 valves per cylinder
                            DI / Stratified charge (stoichiometric)           Piezo injectors
                            DI / Stratified charge (lean burn / complex
                            strategies)
                            Mild downsizing with turbocharging                Mild downsizing
                            Medium downsizing with turbocharging              Medium downsizing
                   Engine

                            Strong downsizing with turbocharging              Strong downsizing
                            Variable Valve Timing
                            Variable valve control
                            Cylinder deactivation                             Cylinder deactivation
                            Variable Compression Ratio
                            Optimised cooling circuit*                        Optimised cooling circuit*
                            Advanced cooling circuit + electric water pump*   Advanced cooling circuit + electric water pump*
                                                                              Exhaust heat recovery*
                            Optimised gearbox ratios                          6-speed manual/automatic gearbox
                  mission
                  Trans-




                            Piloted gearbox                                   Piloted gearbox
                            Continuous Variable Transmission                  Continuous Variable Transmission
                            Dual-Clutch                                       Dual-Clutch
                            Start-stop function                               Start-stop function
                   Hybrid




                            Regenerative braking                              Regenerative braking
                            Mild hybrid (motor assist)                        Mild hybrid (motor assist)
                            Full hybrid (electric drive)                      Full hybrid (electric drive capability)
                            Improved aerodynamic efficiency                   Improved aerodynamic efficiency
                   Body




                            Mild weight reduction                             Mild weight reduction
                            Medium weight reduction                           Medium weight reduction
                            Strong weight reduction                           Strong weight reduction
                            Low rolling resistance tyres                      Low rolling resistance tyres
                   Other




                            Electrically assisted steering (EPS, EPHS)*       Electrically assisted steering (EPS, EPHS)*
                            Advanced aftertreatment                           DeNOx catalyst
                                                                              Particulate trap / filter
source: TNO et al 2006
Cost Curves – a simple concept, but a bit more
        complex in reality and to model

                         Fuel and size related cost curves - 6

                                      Medium petrol
                                        CO2 vs. costs
                        30000                           200




                                                              CO2 emission [g/km]
                        28000                           180
                        26000                           160
         price [Euro]
                        24000                           140                              cost
                                                                                         CO2
                        22000                           120
                        20000                           100

                        18000                           80
                                     e

                                    1

                                    2

                                    3

                                    4

                                    5

                                    6
                                 lin

                                 e

                                 e

                                 e

                                 e

                                 e

                                 e
                               ag




                               ag
                               ag

                               ag




                               ag




                               ag
                              se



                            ck

                            ck
                            ck




                            ck

                            ck

                            ck
                            Ba

                          Pa

                          Pa

                          Pa

                          Pa

                          Pa

                          Pa
                        In the cost modelling a more complex
                         mix of packages was used to create
                              more detailed cost curves.


                                                                                    source: IEEP et al 2004 (TNO inputs)
Some results – Net Costs to Society

•   Net societal costs per car to meet 120g/km are of the order of 1-2%
    of the cost of a car.
•   An average cost can be as low as 127 Euros/car or 252 Euros/car
    average depending on what discount rate is used (0% or 5% real
    respectively).
•   The costs for society as a whole amounts to a total of 1.84 billion
    Euros/year under the lower cost targets and instruments (trading
    route).
•   This used conservative oil prices (lower than current)
•   This excludes benefits of reducing CO2 and other pollutants
Cost to Manufacturers
•   Manufacturer costs of meeting the 120g/km target amount
    to on average 577 Euros/car for the lowest cost
    target/instrument.
•   This amounts to 8.36 billion Euros/year for new
    registrations in EU-15 in 2012.
•   These figures assume that no costs are passed through to
    consumers, nor does it reflect that potential for cost
    reductions of measures over time.
•   Therefore, real costs to manufacturers will probably be
    significantly lower, and in cases, if and where full pass
    through is possible, then costs are considerably lower.
•   Pass through is facilitated by consumer benefits
Targets and Manufacturer costs - Euros/car
               no pass-through of costs


Flexibility          % improvement   relative target   absolute target
(Regulated entity)


1 every car              591              741               987


2 manufacturer’s         580           605-635              700
average

3 fleet average          577              577               577
Costs to consumers
•   In many cases, the cost to the consumer is negative – ie the
    changes bring a net financial benefit.
•   Car prices are expected to rise by on average around
    1200Eur (full pass through of costs + taxes and margins),
•   for the cheaper options the fuel savings benefits outweigh
    the costs at the 0% discount rate.
•   In reality, however, consumers probably apply a rather high
    discount rate to future benefits, so may not fully appreciate
    this benefit.
•   On the other hand the consumer benefit is extremely
    sensitive to fuel price assumptions;
•   with fuel prices at current levels, more of the options yield
    net benefits than the study, and consumer acceptance
    should increase as a result.
Impact of Fuel Price on Consumer Cost
                               1500
                                                                              2008
Net costs to consumer [Euro]
                               1000

                                500                                           each car - uniform target
      (NPV: IR = 5%)




                                   0                                          each car - all other targets
                                    0.80    1.00     1.20       1.40   1.60
                                -500                                          per manufacturer - all targets
                               -1000
                                                                              all cars (trading) - all targets
                               -1500

                               -2000
                                              Petrol price [Euro/l]


                               Source: IEEP/TNO/CAIR
                               Data: Polk Marketing Systems
Insights on Trading
•   CO2 credits are traded among manufacturers in g/km per vehicle units
    – ie different units than in the EU-ETS.
•   Trading can reduce vehicle costs (excl. taxes and margins) by up to
    410 Euros/car which = nearly 6 bn Euros/year. (cf 120 g/km fixed per
    car target)
•   The advantages of trading are much more moderate for other targets,
    ranging from close to zero for the % reduction options to 400 – 2,500
    million Euro for the other target-instrument combinations.
•   Trading volumes range between 201 million Euro with % reduction
    case, up to 2.57 billion with a fixed target.
•   Note that trading volumes relate to targets defined at the manufacturer
    level. There is substantially more internal trading within each
    manufacturer, which underlines the benefits of a bubble approach
    relative to the car/segment specific approach.
•   Buyers and sellers are often very different depending on the target and
    instrument type.
Cost of Reducing CO2
•   For options with trading the value of the traded credits = the
    marginal costs of further CO2 reduction (expressed in
    Euro/(g/km).
•   The marginal costs vary little between target / instrument mixes
    – around 50 Euro/(g/km).
•   Marginal costs to society are 141 to 174 Euros/tonne CO2 with
    trading (interest rate 0% and 5% respectively),
•   The average costs are much lower at 34 to 67 Euros/tonne
    CO2 (interest rate 0% and 5% respectively).
•   Prices are higher than currently under the ETS – hence while
    there are benefits of trading generally, joining any automotive
    trading scheme to EU ETS would lead to the automotive
    industry not meeting the 120g/km target. Also complications of
    different use of terms under trading schemes.
Subsequent Study – for DG Enterprise
 Review and analysis of the reduction potential and costs of
technological and other measures to reduce CO2-emissions
                   from passenger cars

                       Richard Smokers, Robin Vermeulen,
                      Robert van Mieghem & Raymond Gense
                           TNO Science and Industry


                        Ian Skinner, Malcolm Fergusson,
                         Ellie MacKay & Patrick ten Brink
              IEEP - Institute for European Environmental Policy

                      George Fontaras & Prof. Zisis Samaras
                      Laboratory of Applied Thermodynamics
                       Aristotle University of Technology

 See http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/automotive/pagesbackground/pollutant_emission/index.htm
‘DGENT Updated results of DGENV study’
                    For most target-measure combinations the manufacturer costs
                      for reaching a 2012 target of 120 g/km are around €1700 per
                      vehicle compared to average costs of the 2008/9 baseline
                      vehicle emitting 140 g/km. This translates into an additional
                      retail price of €2450 per vehicle.

                    These are significantly higher than the study for DGENV.


                                cost curves (manufacturer costs)                                              cost curves (retail price increase)

                    10000          p,S                                                            10000          p,S
                     9000          p,M                                                             9000          p,M
                     8000          p,L                                                             8000          p,L
costs [Euro/veh.]




                                                                              costs [Euro/veh.]
                     7000          d,S                                                             7000          d,S
                     6000          d,M                                                             6000          d,M
                                   d,L                                                                           d,L
                     5000                                                                          5000
                     4000                                                                          4000
                     3000                                                                          3000
                     2000                                                                          2000
                     1000                                                                          1000
                        0                                                                             0
                            0       20        40        60         80   100                               0        20        40         60          80   100
                                          CO2 reduction [g/km]                                                           CO2 reduction [g/km]
Why are they higher ?
•   The translation from retail price data obtained from literature to
    manufacturer costs has been done with a different factor (1.44 instead of
    2.0), resulting in higher input on the manufacturer costs;
       •   Note that this has no effect on cost to consumers

•   The effects of autonomous weight increase have been modelled with a
    different formula resulting in a higher amount of additional CO2-
    emissions to be compensated;
       •   This assumes continued move toward heavier cars

•   Cost and CO2-reduction data for individual options have been newly
    estimated taking into account new literature data, information from
    industry and evolved expert judgement;
•   The resulting overall CO2-reduction of packages of measures that target
    engine and powertrain efficiency has been assessed more
    conservatively
       •   This assumes that manufacturers will less often be able to choose to most cost
           effective efficient package of option
Weakness of the approach

•   Ex ante assessment of costs have almost systematically been
    shown to overestimate the costs - ex-post studies have shown
    this true retrospectively.
•   Cost data tends to takes no or little account of innovation /
    learning – based on costs now
•   Oil price scenarios used are relatively conservative
•   Some conservative estimates used, pushing prices up.
•   Assumptions on future weight growth may or may not end up
    being true – if not then the costs are an over-estimate. (and if we go
    for heavier cars even faster then an underestimate of course).
•   Focuses on costs to one set of industry players. Others will make
    money on it. Certainly less dramatic a cost to Europe plc, and in fact
    not necessarily a cost.
General conclusions
•   Reducing CO2 from transport-passenger cars is vital
•   It is a major technological and social challenge
•   The existing policy instruments are not proving as effective as hoped
•   There is a need for additional measures
•   A range of instruments and targets exist
•   Costs can be high for manufacturers, society and consumers – yet
    costs to consumers, given fuel savings, are sometimes negative.
•   Trading can help reduce costs – there are different winners and losers
    depending on targets and instruments
•   Trading prices most likely to be higher than EU-ETS.
•   IF there is to be a car CO2 trading scheme best to keep separate –
    different units, and link will reduce reductions from automotive sector +
    note also more CO2 leakage to outside EU from EU-ETS than cars ET.
•   There is still controversy over exactly how much it will cost.
•   There is no controversy that cars specific CO2 needs reducing further.
The CO2 Challenge for Passenger Cars in Europe
and the Potential Role and Impacts of Emissions
                    Trading

                        Thank You!
                      Any Questions?

                       Patrick ten Brink
          Senior Fellow and Head of Brussels Office
     Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP)
                   ptenbrink@ieep.eu
                      www.ieep.eu

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The CO2 Challenge for Passenger Cars in Europe by Patrick ten Brink of IEEP Lyon 5 December 2006

  • 1. The CO2 Challenge for Passenger Cars in Europe and the Potential Role and Impacts of Emissions Trading Patrick ten Brink Senior Fellow and Head of Brussels Office Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) ptenbrink@ieep.eu www.ieep.eu Elements build on work by the IEEP Transport Team Malcolm Fergusson & Ian Skinner and partners TNO, CAIR and LAT Lyon 5 December 2006
  • 2. Presentation Structure • Context – history and emissions from transport • The strategy and its measures • The performance and the remaining challenge • Insights on instruments, targets and costs
  • 3. A Brief History • 1990s: Fuel economy not improving • 1993: EU ratifies Framework Convention on Climate Change • 1995: Commission publishes passenger car CO2 strategy • target 120g/km by 2005 (or 2010 at latest) • 1997: Carmakers threatened with legislation • 1998/9: Voluntary Agreements with manufacturers’ associations • 2000: Monitoring Mechanism (1753/2000) established • 2001: CO2 Labelling required (1999/94) • 2005/6: Review of Passenger Car CO2 Strategy Source: Malcolm Fergusson
  • 4. Transport Sector GHG emissions http://dataservice.eea.europa.eu/atlas/viewdata/viewpub.asp?id=2104
  • 5. A Diverse Europe - Trends in transport GHG emissions by country (1990-2003) http://dataservice.eea.europa.eu/atlas/viewdata/viewpub.asp?id=2083
  • 6. Growth in Road Transport contributions http://dataservice.eea.europa.eu/atlas/viewdata/viewpub.asp?id=2082
  • 7. Within transport, cars are the main energy user 450 400 Ships Aircraft 350 Rail & inl. 300 shipping 250 Mtoe Cars 200 150 100 Lorries 50 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 road road rail inland navigation air sea Source: T&E Presentation by Jos Dings building on DGENV presentation
  • 8. Transport and GHG emissions – a problem sector Source: T&E Presentation by Jos Dings; originally from EEA TERM Energy Factsheet
  • 9. Transport pollutants – GHGs a key challenge http://dataservice.eea.europa.eu/atlas/viewdata/viewpub.asp?id=848
  • 10. Passenger Cars CO2 Strategy: 3 pillars EU objective: To achieve a fleet average of new passenger car of 120 g CO2/km by 2012 (equivalent to 4.5 l/100 km diesel or 5l/100km gasoline) Three pillars Agreements with car industry Negotiated in 1999/2000 with the European, Japanese and Korean car manufacturers associations (resp. ACEA, JAMA & KAMA) Member States provide independent monitoring data on new cars sold Target: 140g CO2/km by 2008/2009 Annual Joint Reports Consumer information Directive 1999/94/EC adopted in December 1999 and amended in 2003 Possible future improvements: harmonised label with energy efficiency classes, and inclusion of light commercial vehicles in addition to cars Fiscal measures July 2005 Commission proposal for a Council directive (COM(2005)261) aims at requiring MS that have taxes to base their calculation on CO2 emissions Currently being discussed in Council Annual Communications to the Council and Parliament - see Commission web pages: EU CO2 and cars strategy: Source: DGENV Presentation http://ec.europa.eu/environment/co2/co2_home.htm
  • 11. Consumer information system (1999/94/EC) • labelling of fuel consumption and CO2 emissions • the production of a fuel consumption and CO2 emissions guide • displaying posters in car showrooms • the inclusion of fuel consumption and CO2 emissions data in advertising, brochures, etc. Danish Energy Label
  • 12. Fiscal Measures – nation wide and local Fuel tax; car tax schemes and the London’s congestion charge Fuel Taxes UK fuel price escalator Petrol and diesel tax differentials Car taxes UK - registration taxes moved to CO2 rating London Congestion charge Started in February 2003 Run by Transport for London, TfL Covers 21km², 1.3% of greater London Being expanded and price going up www.t-e.nu
  • 13. The ‘CO2 Agreement’ with Carmakers • Community target was 120g/km by 2005/2010 • Commission negotiated with Associations • Agreement reached on 140g/km • ACEA by 2008; JAMA & KAMA by 2009; Interim targets 2003/4 • Monitoring Mechanism (1753/2000) established EU targets in international context All going in the same direction Japan early leader; EU plan to go further. http://dataservice.eea.europa.eu/atlas/viewdata/viewpub.asp?id=2112
  • 14. Voluntary Commitments: major efforts still needed… 12.4% reduction in 2004 compared to 1995, out of total 25% required by 2008/9… 210 EU15 level in 1995: 200 186 gCO2/km Voluntary 190 commitments: g CO2/km, annual average 140 g CO2/km in 180 2008/9 170 160 150 140 130 EU objective: 120 gCO2/km 120 110 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ACEA JAMA KAMA EU-15 ACEA (required) JAMA (required) KAMA (required) Source: DGENV presentation CO2 & Cars
  • 15. Progress to Date Some, but it looks like the targets will be missed 220 200 180 grammes CO2/k 160 140 ACEA target ACEA JAMA target JA A M /KAMA KA A M EU target 2010 120 trend ACEA trend JA A M trend KAMA EU target 2012 100 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: T&E Presentation by Jos Dings
  • 16. How well are manufacturers on track? Different challenges for different manufacturers Source: Oct 25 T&E brand by brand progress report
  • 17. The CO2 challenge Increasingly serious concern that the current agreement targets will not be reached Increasing realisation that a new self commitment will not likely result in the 120g/km target being achieved. Increasing political discourse on need for strict targets. But how, much will this cost, and what can help reduce the cost? Studies for DGENV by IEEP, TNO and CAIR Study for DGENT by TNO, IEEP and LAT
  • 18. The Study for DGENV by IEEP et al Service contract to carry out economic analysis and business impact assessment of CO2 emissions reduction measures in the automotive sector Patrick ten Brink Ian Skinner Malcolm Fergusson Dawn Haines IEEP - Institute for European Environmental Policy Richard Smokers Erik van der Burgwal Raymond Gense TNO, The Netherlands Peter Wells Paul Nieuwenhuis CAIR - Centre for Automotive Industry Research, Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, UK See http://ec.europa.eu/environment/co2/pdf/cars_ia_final_report.pdf
  • 19. Aim of the work The aim of the service contract was to assess the impacts of trading scheme(s) that would allow the target of 120g/km average specific CO2 emissions from new registrations of passenger cars to be met by 2012. Assessment of impact on manufacturers, society and consumer covered the following aspects: • Manufacturer: costs, potential problems of vehicles not meeting requirements and not being allowed on the market, trading costs and benefits • Society: as above, including the value of fuel savings but excluding taxes • Consumer: impact on availability of vehicles, up front price effect and savings. • Environment: CO2 and fuel savings.
  • 20. Targets and Instruments The work looked at 3 types of targets and three instruments: • Targets • a % reduction from a reference year, • a sloped target curve linked to utility criteria (several variations assessed), • and a fixed emissions target to be met by all (120g/km) • Instruments: • Emission reduction requirements for individual vehicles; • a manufacturer’s bubble (ie the manufacturer as a whole can meet the target, effectively allowing burden within the manufacturer’s fleet); and • a trading scheme (ie that allows trading between all manufacturers and hence effectively sharing the burden across the industry as a whole).
  • 21. Utility function and potential target Specific CO2 emissions 700 CO2 [g/km] of cars on the market in 2002 Utility based limit values petrol 2012 600 Utility based limit values diesel 2012 Linear (CO2 [g/km] of cars on the market in 2002) Linear (Utility based limit values petrol 2012) 500 CO2 emission [g/km] y = 8.4146x 400 300 y = 5.7998x 200 100 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Utility (V^2/3*P^1/3) (source: IEEP et al (2004), building on data from Polk Utility
  • 22. Technological options for reducing emissions Petrol vehicles Diesel vehicles Reduced engine friction losses Reduced engine friction losses DI / homogeneous charge (stoichiometric) 4 valves per cylinder DI / Stratified charge (stoichiometric) Piezo injectors DI / Stratified charge (lean burn / complex strategies) Mild downsizing with turbocharging Mild downsizing Medium downsizing with turbocharging Medium downsizing Engine Strong downsizing with turbocharging Strong downsizing Variable Valve Timing Variable valve control Cylinder deactivation Cylinder deactivation Variable Compression Ratio Optimised cooling circuit* Optimised cooling circuit* Advanced cooling circuit + electric water pump* Advanced cooling circuit + electric water pump* Exhaust heat recovery* Optimised gearbox ratios 6-speed manual/automatic gearbox mission Trans- Piloted gearbox Piloted gearbox Continuous Variable Transmission Continuous Variable Transmission Dual-Clutch Dual-Clutch Start-stop function Start-stop function Hybrid Regenerative braking Regenerative braking Mild hybrid (motor assist) Mild hybrid (motor assist) Full hybrid (electric drive) Full hybrid (electric drive capability) Improved aerodynamic efficiency Improved aerodynamic efficiency Body Mild weight reduction Mild weight reduction Medium weight reduction Medium weight reduction Strong weight reduction Strong weight reduction Low rolling resistance tyres Low rolling resistance tyres Other Electrically assisted steering (EPS, EPHS)* Electrically assisted steering (EPS, EPHS)* Advanced aftertreatment DeNOx catalyst Particulate trap / filter source: TNO et al 2006
  • 23. Cost Curves – a simple concept, but a bit more complex in reality and to model Fuel and size related cost curves - 6 Medium petrol CO2 vs. costs 30000 200 CO2 emission [g/km] 28000 180 26000 160 price [Euro] 24000 140 cost CO2 22000 120 20000 100 18000 80 e 1 2 3 4 5 6 lin e e e e e e ag ag ag ag ag ag se ck ck ck ck ck ck Ba Pa Pa Pa Pa Pa Pa In the cost modelling a more complex mix of packages was used to create more detailed cost curves. source: IEEP et al 2004 (TNO inputs)
  • 24. Some results – Net Costs to Society • Net societal costs per car to meet 120g/km are of the order of 1-2% of the cost of a car. • An average cost can be as low as 127 Euros/car or 252 Euros/car average depending on what discount rate is used (0% or 5% real respectively). • The costs for society as a whole amounts to a total of 1.84 billion Euros/year under the lower cost targets and instruments (trading route). • This used conservative oil prices (lower than current) • This excludes benefits of reducing CO2 and other pollutants
  • 25. Cost to Manufacturers • Manufacturer costs of meeting the 120g/km target amount to on average 577 Euros/car for the lowest cost target/instrument. • This amounts to 8.36 billion Euros/year for new registrations in EU-15 in 2012. • These figures assume that no costs are passed through to consumers, nor does it reflect that potential for cost reductions of measures over time. • Therefore, real costs to manufacturers will probably be significantly lower, and in cases, if and where full pass through is possible, then costs are considerably lower. • Pass through is facilitated by consumer benefits
  • 26. Targets and Manufacturer costs - Euros/car no pass-through of costs Flexibility % improvement relative target absolute target (Regulated entity) 1 every car 591 741 987 2 manufacturer’s 580 605-635 700 average 3 fleet average 577 577 577
  • 27. Costs to consumers • In many cases, the cost to the consumer is negative – ie the changes bring a net financial benefit. • Car prices are expected to rise by on average around 1200Eur (full pass through of costs + taxes and margins), • for the cheaper options the fuel savings benefits outweigh the costs at the 0% discount rate. • In reality, however, consumers probably apply a rather high discount rate to future benefits, so may not fully appreciate this benefit. • On the other hand the consumer benefit is extremely sensitive to fuel price assumptions; • with fuel prices at current levels, more of the options yield net benefits than the study, and consumer acceptance should increase as a result.
  • 28. Impact of Fuel Price on Consumer Cost 1500 2008 Net costs to consumer [Euro] 1000 500 each car - uniform target (NPV: IR = 5%) 0 each car - all other targets 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 -500 per manufacturer - all targets -1000 all cars (trading) - all targets -1500 -2000 Petrol price [Euro/l] Source: IEEP/TNO/CAIR Data: Polk Marketing Systems
  • 29. Insights on Trading • CO2 credits are traded among manufacturers in g/km per vehicle units – ie different units than in the EU-ETS. • Trading can reduce vehicle costs (excl. taxes and margins) by up to 410 Euros/car which = nearly 6 bn Euros/year. (cf 120 g/km fixed per car target) • The advantages of trading are much more moderate for other targets, ranging from close to zero for the % reduction options to 400 – 2,500 million Euro for the other target-instrument combinations. • Trading volumes range between 201 million Euro with % reduction case, up to 2.57 billion with a fixed target. • Note that trading volumes relate to targets defined at the manufacturer level. There is substantially more internal trading within each manufacturer, which underlines the benefits of a bubble approach relative to the car/segment specific approach. • Buyers and sellers are often very different depending on the target and instrument type.
  • 30. Cost of Reducing CO2 • For options with trading the value of the traded credits = the marginal costs of further CO2 reduction (expressed in Euro/(g/km). • The marginal costs vary little between target / instrument mixes – around 50 Euro/(g/km). • Marginal costs to society are 141 to 174 Euros/tonne CO2 with trading (interest rate 0% and 5% respectively), • The average costs are much lower at 34 to 67 Euros/tonne CO2 (interest rate 0% and 5% respectively). • Prices are higher than currently under the ETS – hence while there are benefits of trading generally, joining any automotive trading scheme to EU ETS would lead to the automotive industry not meeting the 120g/km target. Also complications of different use of terms under trading schemes.
  • 31. Subsequent Study – for DG Enterprise Review and analysis of the reduction potential and costs of technological and other measures to reduce CO2-emissions from passenger cars Richard Smokers, Robin Vermeulen, Robert van Mieghem & Raymond Gense TNO Science and Industry Ian Skinner, Malcolm Fergusson, Ellie MacKay & Patrick ten Brink IEEP - Institute for European Environmental Policy George Fontaras & Prof. Zisis Samaras Laboratory of Applied Thermodynamics Aristotle University of Technology See http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/automotive/pagesbackground/pollutant_emission/index.htm
  • 32. ‘DGENT Updated results of DGENV study’ For most target-measure combinations the manufacturer costs for reaching a 2012 target of 120 g/km are around €1700 per vehicle compared to average costs of the 2008/9 baseline vehicle emitting 140 g/km. This translates into an additional retail price of €2450 per vehicle. These are significantly higher than the study for DGENV. cost curves (manufacturer costs) cost curves (retail price increase) 10000 p,S 10000 p,S 9000 p,M 9000 p,M 8000 p,L 8000 p,L costs [Euro/veh.] costs [Euro/veh.] 7000 d,S 7000 d,S 6000 d,M 6000 d,M d,L d,L 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 CO2 reduction [g/km] CO2 reduction [g/km]
  • 33. Why are they higher ? • The translation from retail price data obtained from literature to manufacturer costs has been done with a different factor (1.44 instead of 2.0), resulting in higher input on the manufacturer costs; • Note that this has no effect on cost to consumers • The effects of autonomous weight increase have been modelled with a different formula resulting in a higher amount of additional CO2- emissions to be compensated; • This assumes continued move toward heavier cars • Cost and CO2-reduction data for individual options have been newly estimated taking into account new literature data, information from industry and evolved expert judgement; • The resulting overall CO2-reduction of packages of measures that target engine and powertrain efficiency has been assessed more conservatively • This assumes that manufacturers will less often be able to choose to most cost effective efficient package of option
  • 34. Weakness of the approach • Ex ante assessment of costs have almost systematically been shown to overestimate the costs - ex-post studies have shown this true retrospectively. • Cost data tends to takes no or little account of innovation / learning – based on costs now • Oil price scenarios used are relatively conservative • Some conservative estimates used, pushing prices up. • Assumptions on future weight growth may or may not end up being true – if not then the costs are an over-estimate. (and if we go for heavier cars even faster then an underestimate of course). • Focuses on costs to one set of industry players. Others will make money on it. Certainly less dramatic a cost to Europe plc, and in fact not necessarily a cost.
  • 35. General conclusions • Reducing CO2 from transport-passenger cars is vital • It is a major technological and social challenge • The existing policy instruments are not proving as effective as hoped • There is a need for additional measures • A range of instruments and targets exist • Costs can be high for manufacturers, society and consumers – yet costs to consumers, given fuel savings, are sometimes negative. • Trading can help reduce costs – there are different winners and losers depending on targets and instruments • Trading prices most likely to be higher than EU-ETS. • IF there is to be a car CO2 trading scheme best to keep separate – different units, and link will reduce reductions from automotive sector + note also more CO2 leakage to outside EU from EU-ETS than cars ET. • There is still controversy over exactly how much it will cost. • There is no controversy that cars specific CO2 needs reducing further.
  • 36. The CO2 Challenge for Passenger Cars in Europe and the Potential Role and Impacts of Emissions Trading Thank You! Any Questions? Patrick ten Brink Senior Fellow and Head of Brussels Office Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) ptenbrink@ieep.eu www.ieep.eu