World scenarios beyond 2030: fundamental challenges and trends supporting positive scenario(s)

1. Charting Global Future:
Roads Beyond
the Phase Barrier
Pavel Luksha
SKOLKOVO Moscow School of
Management /
METAVER

2. Starting as
‘education of the
future’ community
charting our own
‘future of
education’ up 2030
now one of leading Russian
foresight groups with a
unique and efficient
technology

3. GLOBAL CRISIS … AND ITS ROOTS
FINANCIAL / ECONOMICAL HUMANITY / NATURE
DISBALANCE
POLITICAL
LACK OF TRUST
ETHICAL
FUTURE ‘S INDIVIDUAL,
RESOURCE NOT SHARED
ENVIRONMENTAL

4. “We must continue to go into
space for the future of humanity. I
don't think we will survive another
thousand years without escaping
beyond our fragile planet.”
Steven Hawking, physicist

5. NO MR HAWKING,
IF WE ARE UNABLE TO COPE WITH EARTHLY MATTERS,
THE SPACE WILL NOT SAVE US
WE WILL FAIL …
DISGRACEFULLY

6. GREEN COGNITIVITY:
Phase transition
scenario
CYBERPUNK:
(Instable) present
continuous
scenario
APOCALYPSE:
Phase catastrophe
scenario
NOW +20-30 years

7. Can ‘Green Cognitivity’ scenario
emerge?
We envisage three groups of
trends that support this
scenario – leading to a
particular and unusual type
of all-humanity transition
beyond the phase barrier

8. TREND GROUP 1:
LIFE <-> NET
2011 2020
2 Billion users 5 Billion users
store 1 Zettabyte store 38 Zettabyte
<10% use 100+ Mbps >70% use 100+ Mbps

9. TREND GROUP 2:
PHYSICAL <-> VIRTUAL
Internet of Augmented
Things Realities

10. TREND GROUP 3:
INNER <-> OUTER
Body Brain-Computer
Extensions Connections

11. QUALITATIVE TRANSITION
TRUST
Anthropo- FUTURE-SHARING
structures
with new
COLLABORATION
quality of
RESOURCE-SHARING

12. CHALLENGES BEFORE 2030s – 2050s
THE BARRIER
 MANAGING INCREASED CHALLENGES
COMPLEXITY BEYOND THE BARRIER
 BARRIER-
BREAKTHROUGH  SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
TECHNOLOGIES  HUMAN-MACHINE
 INTEGRATION INTEGRATION
 …  IMMORTALITY
…
2012 – 2030s

13. FORESIGHT
TO WORLD 2045