Eugenie L. Birch's presentation for the Penn IUR conference "Shape of the New American City"

1. The New Downtown Revisited Shape of the New American City Eugenie L. Birch Lawrence C. Nussdorf Professor of Urban Research and Education Department of City and Regional Planning Co-Director, Penn Institute for Urban Research University of Pennsylvania October 24, 2008

4. U.S. population and household growth Source: U.S. Census. 1990 and 2000 Decennial Census; 2007 American Community Survey; 2010 population projection Overall US population growth rate slowing from 40 year peak in 1990-2000; Household growth rate slowing more substantially from 1970-1980 peak; household growth now paralleling population growth, indicating “stability” of household configurations 2000-2010

5. Sample City Population Changes Source: U.S. Census. 1990 and 2000 Decennial Census; 2007 American Community Survey 1 st column is 1990-2000; 2 nd column is 2000-2007 Red = South Blue = West Grey = Northeast Green = Midwest

6. City Growth – add people or grow boundaries Of the cities that grew by double digits in both periods, all annexed land during those periods These cities have downtown populations of under 10,000 (Average: 4,500) City 1990-2000 2000-2008 Land Annexation Boise 47.8% 9.6% Austin 41.0 14.2 YES Mesa 37.6 21.0 YES Charlotte 36.6 24.9 YES Phoenix 34.3 14.6 YES Colorado Springs 28.4 7.9 San Antonio 22.3 12.2 YES Portland 21.0 4.1 Houston 19.8 4.8 Denver 18.6 6.1 Dallas 18.0 4.3 Lafayette 16.8 3.8 Albuquerque 16.0 14.1 YES City 1990-2000 2000-2008 Land Annexation Lexington 15.6% 7.1% Salt Lake City 13.6 4.0 Orlando 12.9 20.4 YES Columbus, OH 12.4 3.0 San Diego 10.2 4.4 Seattle 9.1 2.5 Indianapolis 6.9 1.4 Los Angeles 6.0 3.0 Atlanta 5.7 3.9 Columbus, GA 4.0 0.7 Manhattan, NY 3.3 5.4 Boston 2.6 4.1 Chattanooga 2.0 3.7

7. In 2005, we categorized 45 downtowns Fully Developed Emerging On the edge of takeoff Slow-growing Declining Boston Atlanta Chattanooga Albuquerque Cincinnati Chicago Baltimore Dallas Austin Columbus, GA Lower Manhattan Charlotte Miami Boise Des Moines Midtown Manhattan Cleveland Milwaukee Colorado Springs Detroit Philadelphia Denver Washington, D.C. Columbus, OH Jackson Los Angeles Indianapolis Lexington Memphis Lafayette Mesa New Orleans Phoenix Minneapolis Norfolk Pittsburgh Orlando Portland Salt Lake City San Antonio San Diego Shreveport San Francisco St. Louis Seattle

8. 2008 2000 2008 2000 2008 2000 Then we asked – how did they do in the next few years? Full. Dev. Emerging On Edge Slow Grow Declining BOSTON CHICAGO NYC DOWNTOWN NYC MIDTOWN PHILADELPHIA ATLANTA BALTIMORE CHARLOTTE CLEVELAND DENVER LOS ANGELES MEMPHIS NEW ORLEANS NORFOLK PORTLAND SAN DIEGO SAN FRANCISCO SEATTLE CHATTANOOGA DALLAS MIAMI MILWAUKEE WASHINGTON DC ALBUQUERQUE AUSTIN BOISE COLORADO SPRINGS COLUMBUS, OH INDIANAPOLIS LAFAYETTE PHOENIX PITTSBURGH SALT LAKE CITY CINCINNATI COLUMBUS, GA DES MOINES DETROIT LEXINGTON MESA MINNEAPOLIS ORLANDO SAN ANTONIO SHREVEPORT ST LOUIS

9. Downtown Household changes: 1970-2010 Source: U.S. Census. 1990 and 2000 Decennial Census; 2007 American Community Survey; 2010 population projection 2010 10.3% 2.9% 10.3% 7.6% -18.8% -10.3% 15.7% 29.5% -5.5% -7.6% 5.8% 8.4% -10.6% 1.1% 34.5% 36.1%

10. Changes to city topology Fully Developed Emerging On the edge of takeoff Slow-growing Declining Boston Atlanta Chattanooga Albuquerque Cincinnati Chicago Baltimore Dallas Austin Columbus, GA Lower Manhattan Charlotte Miami Boise Des Moines Midtown Manhattan Cleveland Milwaukee Colorado Springs Detroit Philadelphia Denver Washington, D.C. Columbus, OH Jackson Los Angeles Indianapolis Lexington Memphis Lafayette Mesa New Orleans Phoenix Minneapolis Norfolk Pittsburgh Orlando Portland Salt Lake City San Antonio San Diego Shreveport San Francisco St. Louis Seattle

11. Charlotte City Mecklenburg County North Carolina Charlotte, NC: Downtown Population & Households: 1970-2008 o Downtown accounts for less than 2% of Charlotte’s households but grew by 70% between 2000-2008. The city grew by 28.4% in households . o Center city is undergoing major redevelopment in entertainment, residential units (12 proposed high-rise residential towers), and recreation . o Household losses are occurring outside downtown in the East part of Charlotte due to redevelopment of previous residential buildings. 79.8% of city households are single person. Average downtown household size is 1.6 . Downtown tracts median household income from $10,960 to $52,686

12. Cincinnati, OH: Downtown Population & Households: 1970-2008 o Downtown accounts for less than 2% of Cincinnati’s households but grew by 10% between 2000 and 2008. The city lost 13.6% in households. o $ 4 billion in investments have been completed in 2008 in the greater Cincinnati downtown area o In the past three years the 3CDC has invested more than $70 million in the revitalization of Over-the-Rhine that includes condo development and other residential, commercial, and park projects. 85.9% of city households are single person. Average downtown household size is 1.2 Downtown tracts: median household income $21,578 to $46,783 Cincinnati City Hamilton County Ohio

13. Orlando, FL: Downtown Population & Households: 1970-2008 o Downtown accounts for about 10% of Orlando’s households but grew by 20% between 2000 and 2008. The city grew by 12.9% in households. o Projects amounting to $371.9 million in investments were completed in downtown Orlando in 2007. . o Land annexation is increasing the physical size of Orlando. A few tracts outside the downtown area are increasing households at a faster rate. 74.7% of city households are single person. Average downtown household size is 1.8 Downtown tracts median household income 11,995 to $59,186 Orlando City, Orange County, Florida

14. 9,000 TOD units expected in downtown: 4,700 are in construction

16. Population CCD 20,000 (+ 4,200) Population expanded 90,000 (+ 11,000) boundaries Downtown BID area 5,700 (+ 2,200 ) Extended area 27, 400 ( + 8,000) Spillover effects

17. The New Downtown Revisited Shape of the New American City Eugenie Birch, University of Pennsylvania October 24, 2008