1
Appendix B: Brief Description of PopPov Projects
As part of the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation’s initiative to enh...
2
Contents
AFD/IRD...........................................................................................................
3
AFD/IRD
Study: " Conséquences des stratégies de fécondité et de la composition du ménage sur la
scolarisation et le trav...
4
Country(ies): Senegal and Madagascar
French Summary: Les principaux objectifs et les questions de recherché sont: evalue...
5
que les résultats exprimeront une causalité et pas uniquement une corrélation entre les différents
paramètres étudiés.
E...
6
thèmes : (1) les transferts vers les ménages et leur impact, (2) la réintégration des migrants de
retour, (3) les invest...
7
données socio-démographiques existantes (EDS, MICS, Enquêtes sur le niveau de vie des
ménages) et sur une collecte des d...
8
ESRC
Study: "Enhancing the Economic, Health, and Social Capabilities of Highly Vulnerable Youth"
PI(s), Institution(s): ...
9
Study: "Effects of Reproductive Health on Poverty in Malawi"
PI(s), Institution(s): Marcos Vera-Hernandez, UCL, IFS
Fund...
10
PI(s), Institution(s): Veronique Filippi, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine;
Susan Murray, King’s College ...
11
Another sub-project examined economic evaluations of health interventions. Evaluations
of health interventions, such as...
12
mechanism is at play in the Solow growth model (Solow 1956), where capital stock is built up
through savings and declin...
13
Funding Scheme: HEWLETT FOUNDATION Grant
Project Dates: April 2009 to August 2012
Data Source(s): Panel Data Collection...
14
IIE
Study: “Essays on Population and Economic Development”
PI(s), Institution(s): Joshua Wilde, Brown University
Fundin...
15
Country(ies): Indonesia
Summary: The preliminary results demonstrate significant beneficial effects of piped water on
h...
16
cognitive endowments. To execute this strategy, this study follows up on a Randomized
Controlled Trial (RCT) with micro...
17
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Fixed Effects Regression Analysis at the Community Level
Country(ies): South Africa
Summ...
18
pregnancy, abortion, and unintended births, resulting in more than a half-million children of
significantly reduced nut...
19
Summary: The study assesses the trend and pattern of mortality and fertility rates and
investigates the direction of ca...
20
Data Source(s): Cross-sectional
Methods: MV analysis
Country(ies): South Africa
Summary: South Africa has experienced f...
21
induced abortion on Ugandan society; and (3) a decision analytic cost-effectiveness model to
calculate the incremental ...
22
number of maternal AIDS orphans was 1 million in 2001, and may exceed 2 million by 2015.
The social and developmental i...
23
Summary: This project analyzes how women’s beliefs about their own HIV status affect fertility
and intergenerational in...
24
health status in South Africa. The study’s main innovation is to exploit plausibly the exogenous
variation in access to...
25
Fellowship Dates: August 2010 – August 2012
Data Source(s): Cross-Sectional
Methods: Matching and Difference-in-Differe...
26
PI(s), Institution(s): Muhammad Farhan Majid, UC Riverside
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2...
27
Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2013
Data Source(s):
Methods:
Country(ies): South Africa
Summary: This study wil...
28
Study: “Dynamic Analysis of Young Women’s Schooling, Marriage, and Fertility Decisions in
Senegal"
PI(s), Institution(s...
29
Study: “Evaluating the Impact of a Disruption in Publicly-Provided Contraceptive supply on
Fertility and Health Outcome...
30
NWO/WOTRO
Study: "Impact of Reproductive Health Services on Socio-Economic Development In Sub-
Saharan Africa: Connecti...
31
PI(s), Institution(s): Prof. dr. J.W. Gunning, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Baltazar Chilundo,
Eduardo Mondlane Univers...
32
PRB Center
Study: "The Effects of Health and Demographic Change on Economic Growth: Integrating
Micro and Macro Perspec...
33
research provides new insights into the likely causal mechanisms that underlie associations
between population composit...
34
Data Source(s): Panel (Data Collection)
Methods: Randomized Controlled Trial
Country(ies): Tanzania
Summary: This proje...
35
Study: Fertility Timing and Women’s Economic Outcomes in South Africa
PI(s), Institution(s): Murray Leibbrandt, Univers...
36
PRB Dissertation Fellows
Study: "Demographic Change and the Structure of Wages: A Demand-Theoretic Analysis for
Brazil"...
37
Summary: The specific aims of this study are to: 1) Assess whether the occurrence of a young
adult death affects the pr...
38
Study: “Experimental Approaches to Assessing the Economic Determinants and Consequences
of Contraceptive Adoption in Za...
PopPov Research Agenda Appendix B
PopPov Research Agenda Appendix B
PopPov Research Agenda Appendix B
PopPov Research Agenda Appendix B
PopPov Research Agenda Appendix B
PopPov Research Agenda Appendix B
PopPov Research Agenda Appendix B
PopPov Research Agenda Appendix B
PopPov Research Agenda Appendix B
PopPov Research Agenda Appendix B
PopPov Research Agenda Appendix B
PopPov Research Agenda Appendix B
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PopPov Research Agenda Appendix B

  1. 1. 1 Appendix B: Brief Description of PopPov Projects As part of the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation’s initiative to enhance research and policy communication in population, reproductive health, and economic development, the foundation has partnered with institutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, Norway, the Netherlands, France, and Africa to strengthen evidence on how population and reproductive health affect economic outcomes in low- and middle-income countries. This Appendix is part of the report “Investigating Elements of a Population, Poverty, and Reproductive Health Research Agenda,” available at www.poppov.org. © 2014 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved.
  2. 2. 2 Contents AFD/IRD.........................................................................................................................................................3 ESRC ..............................................................................................................................................................8 Hewlett Foundation Grant..........................................................................................................................10 IIE ................................................................................................................................................................14 NWO/WOTRO .............................................................................................................................................30 PRB Center ..................................................................................................................................................32 PRB Dissertation Fellows.............................................................................................................................36 RCN..............................................................................................................................................................40 World Bank..................................................................................................................................................44 PopPov Partners’ Grant Project Descriptions for Awards in 2005 or Later Please note that only the Lead PIs are listed for each project with affiliations at the time of the award, and that the Project Summaries are based on the latest information provided by the grant recipient and available to PRB, either in the grant proposal or subsequent reports.
  3. 3. 3 AFD/IRD Study: " Conséquences des stratégies de fécondité et de la composition du ménage sur la scolarisation et le travail des enfants en milieu urbain au Burkina Faso" ( Consequences of fertility regimes and household composition on schooling and child labor in urban Burkina Faso) PI(s), Institutions(s): Kobiane, Jean-Francois, Université de Montréal Funding Scheme: AFD/IRD Project Dates: 2008 - 2012 Data Source(s): Panel Data Collection Method(s): IV; Qualitative Country(ies): Burkina Faso French Summary: L’objectif principal de ce projet, qui porte sur le milieu urbain au Burkina Faso (pays parmi les moins développés au monde), est de mettre en évidence les effets des comportements dans le domaine de la fécondité sur la scolarisation et le travail des enfants et des adolescents, ainsi que leur variation selon la catégorie sociale, le sexe et le rang de naissance des enfants. De manière plus spécifique, il s’adit de (i) faire avancer les connaissances sur les stratégies de limitation de la fécondité au niveau des ménages urbains d’Afrique subsaharienne et leur pertinence pour les décisions en matière de scolarisation et de travail des enfants et des jeunes ; (ii) analyser, en utilisant des methods statistiques appropriées, les relations de cause à effet entre, d’une part le nombre d’enfants et la composition de la fratrie et, d’autre part, le bien- être des enfants, mesuré en termes de scolarisation, et contraster ces résultats avec des études menées dans d’autres contexts (l’Asie en particulier) et (iii) mener une réflexion, à la suite de nos résultats, sur les politiques en cours qui portent sur la planification familiale et la scolarisation des enfants, et communiquer les conclusions aux décideurs et au grand public. English Summary: The main objective of this project, situated in the urban area of Burkina Faso (one of the least developed countries in the world), is to provide evidence regarding the effect of fertility behaviors on schooling and work among children and adolescents, as well as regarding the variations by socioeconomic status, gender, and birth order. More specifically, the project means: (1) to advance knowledge of strategies used to limit fertility in urbain households in Sub-Saharan Africa and how this affects decisions about children’s and youth’s schooling and work; (ii) to analyze, using appropriate statistical methods, cause and effect, first of children and the composition of siblings, and second, the well-being of children, measured by schooling, and to contrast these results with studies done in other contexts (Asia in particular) and (ii) to reflect, following our results, on the policies in place which pertain to family planning and children’s schooling and to communicate these conclusions to decision makers et the public at large. Study: "Les transitions en matière de fécondité, scolarisation et travail des jeunes femmes en Afrique : Identification des déterminants et consequences” (Fertility, Schooling and Work Transitions of Young Women in Africa: Understanding Determinants and Outcomes) PI(s), Institutions(s): Patrick Plane, CNRS and CERDI; Martine Audibert, CNRS; David Sahn, l’Université Cornell (USA) and CERDI. Funding Scheme: AFD/IRD Project Dates: 2008-2012 Data Source(s): Panel Data Method(s): Econometric methods (analysis of discrete events with truncation)
  4. 4. 4 Country(ies): Senegal and Madagascar French Summary: Les principaux objectifs et les questions de recherché sont: evaluer des bénéfices en termes de bienêtre résultant de l’action sur les variables de comportement de l’individu en société. La recherché a pour objet d’améliorer la compréhension des déterminants et des impacts liés à des transitions dont les jeunes femmes font l’expérience aussi bien en matière de transition familiale que scolaire ou professionnelle. Les analyses portent sur deux pays africains, le Sénégal et Madagascar. On en attend des recommandations de politique économique, des connaissances nouvelles permettant d’agir sur les modalités et le phasage temporel de ces transitions sociales. l’étude utilise des bases de données uniques permettant de saisir les transitions en termes de constitution de famille, de scolarisation et de transitions attachées à l’insertion sur le marché du travail. On dispose de données de long terme sur les cohortes d’individus. L’étude autorise d’abord le traitement de problèmes statistiques ayant jusqu’ici pénalisé la qualité des travaux sur les pays Africains. Elle permet, par ailleurs, de produire de l’information détaillée sur les politiques en regard de la santé reproductive ou de l’éducation qui affectent les transitions. English Summary: The main objectives and research questions are to evaluate the benefits, in terms of well-being, resulting from changes in individual behavior in the social context. This research seeks to improve comprehension of the determinants and effects associated with transitions young women experience in family formation as well as in transitions to school or work. We expect from these analyses recommendations about economic policy, new knowledge that leads to action regarding the modes and timing of social transitions. The study uses as its base, unique data that allows us to follow transitions in family formation, schooling, and workforce entry. We have at our disposal long-term data on cohorts of individuals. The study allows us first of all, to solve statistical problems that have, until now, undermined the quality of work on African countries. In addition, it allows us to produce detailed information pertaining to reproductive health policy or education that affects these transitions. Study: " Information, Sexualité adolescente et Santé” (Information, Sexual Behavior, and Health Among Teenagers in Cameroon) PI(s), Institutions(s): Duflo, Esther, J-Pal Europe/PSE; IRESCO Funding Scheme: AFD/IRD Project Dates: 2008-2012 Data Source(s): Panel Data Method(s): Experimental Design Country(ies): Cameroon French Summary: Ce projet consiste en une expérimentation contrôlée permettant d’évaluer l’impact de plusieurs campagnes de prévention diffusées à des jeunes filles de classe de 4ème sur les comportements sexuels à risque. L’expérimentation portera sur le contenu du message d’une part – faut-il informer sur le risque moyen de contamination ou sur les risques relatifs suivant l’âge du partenaire ?, et sur la façon dont le message est délivré d’autre part – faut-il délivrer l’information par l’intermédiaire d’une personne spécialisée extérieure à l’école ou du personnel permanent de l’école ? Elle permettra également d’en apprendre davantage sur les possibilités de diffusion sociale des informations transmises par le programme dans l’entourage des jeunes filles. Ce projet de recherche utilise la méthode d’évaluation par assignation aléatoire qui garantit
  5. 5. 5 que les résultats exprimeront une causalité et pas uniquement une corrélation entre les différents paramètres étudiés. English Summary: This project consists of a randomized controlled experiment, permitting evaluation of the impact of several interventions delivered to young women in their 4th grade class on risky sexual behavior. The RCT focuses on the content of the message in one arm— should one inform them about the risky means of infection or about the relative risques that come with the age of their partner. It allows us both to better learn the potential pathways for social diffusion, in the group of young girls, of the information transmited by the program. This project uses evaluation methods based on random assignment, assuring that the esperimental results are causal and not uniquely correlated with different study parameters. Study: "Migration, Labor Market and Demographic Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa (MIMADEM)" PI(s), Institutions(s): Mathias Kuépié, CEPS and DIAL, Paris; Anne-Sophie Robilliard, IRD, DIAL, Dakar Funding Scheme: AFD/IRD Project Dates: 2008-2012 Data Source(s): Method(s): Country(ies): Senegal, Mali, Cameroon French Summary: Le projet MIMADEM se propose de réexaminer les relations entre dynamiques démographiques et dynamiques économiques en Afrique à travers la notion de dividende démographique et en mettant l’accent sur le rôle du marché du travail et sur celui des migrations. Du point de vue méthodologique, il s’agira de dépasser le cadre des analyses basées sur des données agrégées par pays, en mobilisant des micro‐données issues d’enquêtes socioéconomiques et sociodémographiques existantes ou collectées dans le cadre de ce projet. The MIMADEM project proposes to reexamine the relationship between demographic and economic dynamics in Africa, using the notion of the demographic dividend and emphasizing the role of work and on migration. From the methodological perspective, it rests on a set of analyses based on aggregate statistics by country, drawing on microdata from existing socioeconomic and sociodemographic surveys and from cata collected as part of this project. Study: “Migration et développement : Analyse comparée du rôle des transferts monétaires, des investissements et des migrations de retour au Sénégal et en RD du Congo PI(s), Institution(s): Bruno Schoumaker, Universite Catholique de Louvain Funding Scheme: AFD/IRD Project Dates: 2008-2012 Data Source(s): Cross-sectional data collection (MAFE surveys) Methods: MV analysis Country(ies): Senegal and the Democratic Republic of Congo Summary: L’objectif du projet MAFE-CoDev est de mettre en question cette « évidence » politique : les migrants internationaux sont-ils bien les vecteurs de développement qu’appellent de leurs voeux les politiques africaines et européennes ? Cette question sera déclinée en trois
  6. 6. 6 thèmes : (1) les transferts vers les ménages et leur impact, (2) la réintégration des migrants de retour, (3) les investissements individuels et collectifs des migrants dans leur pays d’origine. English Summary: The objective of the MAFE-CoDev project is to confront the following question with the policy evidence: are international migrants, development vectors that the African and European politicians bend to their interests. This question is demarcated by three themes: (1) the transfer of households and their impact; (2) reintegration of return migrants; (3) individual and collective investments of migrants in their country of origin (remittances). Study: "Health Risks and Migration in Sub-Saharan Countries" PI(s), Institution(s): Alice Mesnard, Institute for Fiscal Studies Funding Scheme: AFD/IRD Project Dates: 2008-2012 Data Source(s): Panel (Data Collection) Methods: Descriptive Statistics and Modeling Country(ies): Nigeria and Tanzania Summary: Health risks are among the most severe risks confronting poor households in sub Saharan Africa, especially in areas where affordable and quality health care is scarce and access to health insurance is limited. Individuals may travel long distances or even move to seek treatment, escape from infectious diseases, or help their families overcome financial hardship resulting from high medical expenditures and loss of income due to illness. Such relationships between health risks and migration are rarely explicitly studied despite their important consequences for the planning, targeting, and effectiveness of health policies. This research will investigate the role of migration in dealing with the risks of chronic and acute illnesses, injuries, hospitalizations, and communicable diseases that may not only affect the health of people but also their economic situation. Study: " Pauvreté et besoins non satisfaits en santé de la reproduction des adolescents et des jeunes en Afrique Centrale” (Poverty and Unmet Needs in Reproductive Health of Adolescents and Youth in Central Africa) PI(s), Institution(s): Gervais Beninguisse, Institut de Formation et de recherches demographique Funding Scheme: AFD/IRD Project Dates: 2008-2012 Data Source(s): DHS, Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, Biographical Surveys, Situational Surveys Methods: Multilevel Analysis, MV Analysis, Survival Analysis and Qualitative Methods Country(ies): Angola, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo, DRC, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, and Sao Tome French Summary: Le projet vise donc principalement à évaluer l’ampleur des besoins non satisfaits en SR des adolescents et jeunes d’Afrique Centrale et illustrer leurs liens avec la pauvreté dans ses diverses dimensions (pauvreté monétaire et pauvreté non monétaire) et ses niveaux de manifestation. L’étude qui couvre sept pays d’Afrique Centrale (Cameroun, Centrafrique, Congo, RDC, Gabon, Guinée Equatoriale, Tchad) s’appuiera de façon complémentaire sur une analyse des
  7. 7. 7 données socio-démographiques existantes (EDS, MICS, Enquêtes sur le niveau de vie des ménages) et sur une collecte des données originales issues des enquêtes biographiques, qualitatives et situationnelles. Les analyses reposeront sur une combinaison complémentaire des approches quantitatives et qualitatives. L’approche quantitative reposera sur le modèle multi-niveau dans le but de déterminer la part de chaque niveau dans l’explication totale des différences observées en matière d’occurrence des besoins non satisfaits en SR. The main objective of the project is to assess the extent of unmet needs in reproductive health (RH) of adolescents and youth in Central Africa and to illustrate their links with poverty in its various dimensions (income poverty and nonincome poverty) and its levels of manifestation (microindividual, microhousehold, macrocity, and macronational). The study covers nine countries of Central Africa (Angola, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo, DRC, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, and Sao Tome) and relies on a complementary analysis of existing socio-demographic data and collection of original data including biographical, qualitative, and situational surveys. The analysis is based on a complementary combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches. The quantitative approach is based on multilevel model to determine the contribution of each level in the total explanation of the observed differences in the occurrence of unmet needs of RH.
  8. 8. 8 ESRC Study: "Enhancing the Economic, Health, and Social Capabilities of Highly Vulnerable Youth" PI(s), Institution(s): Kelly Hallman,Population Council Funding Scheme: ESRC Project Dates: November, 2007 – November, 2010 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Randomized Controlled Trial Country(ies): South Africa Summary: Young people in South Africa face a high risk of HIV, teenage pregnancy, school dropout, and unemployment, and are further disadvantaged by the actual or potential loss of one or both parents to HIV and conditions of poverty, inequality, and food insecurity. These circumstances make the transition from childhood to adulthood especially difficult, and many of the most disadvantaged are in danger of falling even farther behind socially and economically due to illness, stigma, and the loss of key supportive adults such as parents and teachers. Many programs fail to recognize that young people’s vulnerabilities differ by ethnicity, age, gender, SES, social connectedness, and orphan-hood status. What’s more, few programs for young people have been evaluated to show what their actual impact is. Baseline findings from the study show program participants to be a vulnerable group, facing situations of orphaning, poverty, and lack of supportive structures to deal with such circumstances. However, these factors seem to have a variety of connections with behaviors and experiences that affect sexual and reproductive health and HIV. In some cases protective factors for females and males are common but their influence may be on different behaviors. In other cases factors associated with healthy outcomes and behaviors differ by gender. A second round of data collection is currently underway which will allow for assessment of the program’s short- term impacts on young people’s vulnerabilities and experiences.
  9. 9. 9 Study: "Effects of Reproductive Health on Poverty in Malawi" PI(s), Institution(s): Marcos Vera-Hernandez, UCL, IFS Funding Scheme: ESRC Project Dates: April, 2008 – August 2011 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Randomized Controlled Trial Country(ies): Malawi Summary: The research program will investigate the causal effect of reproductive health on poverty, primarily using data on randomized interventions that relate specifically to reproductive health. Poverty indicators will include not only current variables such as household consumption and female labor supply, but also investments in the health and education of children, which are known to be critical for long-term poverty reduction. The research will be in Malawi, a highly policy-relevant context for understanding the relationship between reproductive health and poverty in sub-Saharan Africa. Both poverty and poor reproductive health are widespread in Malawi, though there is little understanding of the causal relationship between the two. Poverty might affect reproductive health and vice versa. The challenge of this research is to disentangle the causal effect of reproductive health on poverty. Study: "Unintended Childbearing and Family Welfare in Rural Malawi" PI(s),Institution(s): Angela Baschieri, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Albert Dube; John Cleland Funding Scheme: ESRC Project Dates: July, 2008 – December, 2012 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Propensity Score Matching, IV econometric Country(ies): Malawi Summary: In Malawi, women on average bear about six children. One-quarter to one-third of these children are unwanted or occur sooner than desired and could thus be prevented by greater uptake of effective contraception. The key aim of this research is to assess the impact of unwanted births on family welfare. Family welfare is represented by the physical growth of children and by retention in school. In a very poor country such as Malawi, the adverse effect on family economics of an extra mouth to feed and child to rear is likely to be expressed by inadequate nutrition of children leading to slower growth and school dropout of teenage children. This research will inform the debate by conducting a study linked to an ongoing Demographic Surveillance Site (DSS) in Karonga District in Northern Malawi. Malawi is one of the poorest countries in the world; it is a high fertility country, with only 26.3 percent of women using any method of contraception. The DSS data of Karonga district provide the ideal setting to study the relationship between family planning and fertility and investment in children’s schooling and nutrition. Study: "The Effects of Obstetric Complications and Their Costs on the Long-Term Economic and Social Well Being of Women and Their Families in Burkina Faso"
  10. 10. 10 PI(s), Institution(s): Veronique Filippi, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Susan Murray, King’s College London; Steven Russell, University of East Anglia; Tom Marshall London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Katerini Storeng and Nicolas Meda London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Centre Muraz and Rasmane Ganaba, AfricSante Funding Scheme: ESRC Project Dates: April, 2008 – July, 2010 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Qualitative Analysis Country(ies): Burkina Faso Summary: This study explores the impact of severe obstetric complications and the costs of treating such complications on economic, social, and physical well-being, and examines whether such events lead to sustained impoverishment in the longer term (three to four years). It builds on a recently completed longitudinal study (IMMPACT OAP study) of 1,014 women in Burkina Faso, which investigated the health, economic, and social consequences of severe (“near miss”) complications compared with normal facility-based births up to one year postpartum (Filippi et al., 2007; Storeng et al., 2008). The IMMPACT OAP study found that complications often pose an immediate financial burden on women and their households. In addition, there are postpartum effects on the survival rate of women and infants, women’s physical and mental health, and on social well-being. Hewlett Foundation Grant Study: "Research program on the impact of reproductive health and population dynamics on economic development" PI(s), Institution(s): David Canning, Harvard University; David Bloom; Günther Fink; Jocelyn Finlay Funding Scheme: HEWLETT FOUNDATION Grant Project Dates: May, 2008 – October, 2010 Data Source(s): Pooled DHS, Methods: Descriptive statistics, cross-national regression models, Country(ies): Global, China & India Summary: Several subprojects were produced as a result of this research program. One paper analyzes the distribution of fertility rates across the world using parametric mixture models. This research demonstrates the existence of twin peaks and the division of the world's countries in two distinct components: a high-fertility regime and a low fertility regime. Whereas the significance of twin peaks vanishes over time, the two fertility regimes continue to exist over the whole observation period. In 1950 about two thirds of the world's countries belonged to the high- fertility regime and the rest constituted the low-fertility regime. By the year 2005 this picture has reversed. Within both the low- and the high-fertility regime the average fertility rate declined, with a larger absolute decline within the high-fertility regime. Visually, the two peaks moved closer together. For the low fertility-group we find both β and σ convergence but we cannot establish any convergence pattern for the high fertility regime. Overall our findings are difficult to reconcile with the standard view of a fertility trap but they support the “differentiated take-off" view established in the Unified Growth literature.
  11. 11. 11 Another sub-project examined economic evaluations of health interventions. Evaluations of health interventions, such as vaccinations, are important tools for informing health policy. Approaching the analysis from the appropriate perspective is critical to ensuring the validity of evaluation results for particular policy decisions. Using the example of benefit‐cost analysis (BCA) of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccination, this study demonstrates that past economic evaluations have mostly adopted narrow evaluation perspectives, focusing primarily on health gains, health care cost savings, and reductions in the time costs of caring, while ignoring other important benefits including outcome‐related productivity gains (prevention of mental and physical disabilities), behavior‐related productivity gains (economic growth due to fertility reductions as vaccination improves child survival), and community externalities (prevention of antibiotic resistance and herd immunity). The study further shows that the potential cost reductions that could be attained through changes in the delivery of the Hib vaccine have also usually been ignored in economic evaluations. Future economic evaluations of childhood vaccinations should take full account of benefits and costs, so that policy makers have sufficient information to make well‐informed decisions on vaccination implementation. Study: "Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend" PI(s), Institution(s): David Bloom, University of Michigan; David Canning; Günther Fink; Jocelyn E. Finlay Funding Scheme: HEWLETT FOUNDATION Grant Project Dates: June, 2008 – May, 2011 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Instrumental Variables Country(ies): Global Summary: This research estimates the effect of fertility on female labor force participation in a panel of countries using abortion legislation as an instrument for fertility. Findings show that removing legal restrictions on abortion significantly reduces fertility and estimate that, on average, a birth reduces a woman’s labor supply by almost 2 years during her reproductive life. These results imply that behavioral change, in the form of increased female labor supply, contributes significantly to economic growth during the demographic transition when fertility declines. Study: "The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe" PI(s), Institution(s): David Bloom, University of Michigan; David Canning; Günther Fink; Jocelyn E. Finlay Funding Scheme: HEWLETT FOUNDATION Grant Project Dates: June, 2008 – May, 2011 Data Source(s): Cross-national data Methods: Modeling Country(ies): Europe Summary: There are three theoretical channels through which fertility affects economic development: population growth with fixed resources (the Malthusian theory), the Solow capital stock effect, and the age structure effect. According to the Malthusian hypothesis, larger populations imply lower resources per capita in the presence of a fixed factor (land is frequently given as an example), and thus lower income per capita. A similar yet slightly more subtle
  12. 12. 12 mechanism is at play in the Solow growth model (Solow 1956), where capital stock is built up through savings and declines with depreciation. With constant returns to scale, population growth works in the same way as capital depreciation and thus lowers steady-state income per capita in the traditional Solow model. The third link between fertility and economic growth, and the main focus of this article, is age structure. The age structure of a population follows from the historical sequence of fertility, mortality, and net migration, and directly determines the relative size of the working-age population. Since output is measured in per capita terms, the fact that labor force participation rates vary by age means that the working-age share directly affects income per capita through the number of workers per capita. A decline in fertility reduces the number of children, thus unambiguously raising the working-age share and—as long as participation rates do not change— increasing labor supply per capita in the short run (Bloom and Freeman 1986). The same argument does not hold in the long run. As shown in further detail below, persistently high fertility levels imply an age distribution strongly skewed toward the young generations in steady- state. On the other hand, sustained low fertility levels like the ones currently observed across Europe imply very large relative sizes for the old and economically inactive cohorts in steady- state. Study: "Demographic Change, Economic Growth, Income Distribution, and Poverty in Nigeria: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis" PI(s), Institution(s): Nkang M. Nkang, University of Ibadan, Nigeria Funding Scheme: HEWLETT FOUNDATION Grant Project Dates: 2009 Data Source(s): Multiple surveys & sources Methods: Simulation Country(ies): Nigeria Summary: Recently, it has become increasingly important to analyze population dynamics beyond population growth itself, since it has been demonstrated that age structure, fertility, mortality, and migration influence population and economic growth in significant ways. Generally, fertility and mortality mostly determine the age distribution of population and are in turn determined by the living conditions in the population, notably health facilities. With the appropriate health facilities and policies, fertility and mortality rates can be managed to align with economic growth objectives. Fertility rates are high in most developing countries because most women in these countries have an unmet need for contraception. The high unmet need leads to millions of either unwanted or mistimed pregnancies that give rise to high youth dependency ratios. This has been hypothesized to negatively impact economic growth by reducing per capita incomes and increasing the incidence of poverty. In contrast, it is perceived that demographic transition, driven by fertility reduction, promotes growth, and allows large amounts of human capital investments by households, with attendant distributional outcomes that reduce poverty. Given this background, the study seeks to evaluate the impact of fertility shocks on economic growth, income inequality, and poverty in Nigeria using the computable general equilibrium framework. Study: “Reproductive Health in Ghana” PI(s), Institution(s): T. Paul Schultz, Yale University
  13. 13. 13 Funding Scheme: HEWLETT FOUNDATION Grant Project Dates: April 2009 to August 2012 Data Source(s): Panel Data Collection Method(s): Country(ies): Ghana Summary:
  14. 14. 14 IIE Study: “Essays on Population and Economic Development” PI(s), Institution(s): Joshua Wilde, Brown University Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: AugustAugust 2009 – August 2011 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Instrumental Variable Regression Approach Country(ies): England Summary: The extent to which fixed factors of production, such as land, constrain per capita income growth has historically been a widely discussed topic in economics since Malthus (1798). Whether fixed factors limit growth critically depends on two variables: the substitutability of fixed factors in production, and the extent to which innovation will be biased toward land-saving technologies. However, there are few estimates of either variable, and most models assume this elasticity of substitution is unity out of convenience. This paper attempts to fill that gap in the literature. Using the timing of plague epidemics as an instrument for labor supply, this paper estimates the elasticity of substitution between fixed factors and nonfixed factors in preindustrial England. The study finds that the elasticity of substitution between land and other factors during this period was significantly less than one, which implies that the Malthusian effects of population on income were stronger than current models predict. In addition, the study estimates the direction and magnitude of induced innovation and finds evidence that denser populations—and hence less availability of land—induced innovation toward land-saving technologies. Specifically, the results show that a doubling of population density in England from its year-1500 level increases the difference in the growth rates of land- enhancing and labor enhancing productivity by 0.22 percent per year. Study: "Why is Infant Formula Marketing so Controversial? Effect on Breastfeeding and Later Life Outcomes of Children" PI(s), Institution(s): Ava Gail Cas, Duke University Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2010 – August 2012 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Difference-in-Difference Country(ies): Indonesia Summary: This research examines the long-term impact of the 1989 village midwife program in Indonesia on children’s health (measured by height) and cognitive outcomes. I combine the quasi experimental design of the program with 14 years of rich longitudinal data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) to observe children from their first year of life to age 14. My goal was to examine how exposure to the program early in life affects their health and schooling outcomes later in life. Study: “Essays on Water in Developing Countries” PI(s),Institution(s): Evan Peet, Duke University Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2013 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Household fixed effects model, latent variable model
  15. 15. 15 Country(ies): Indonesia Summary: The preliminary results demonstrate significant beneficial effects of piped water on height. The distributions of height for treated and untreated groups appear distinct and the distributions of placebo groups, as well as tests of the same, do not appear different from those of untreated groups. The three anthropometric measures used are height for age-score, weight for age z-score and weight for height z-score, with height being the measure for which the biological evidence is most clear. The first three columns display the estimated impacts on these three health outcomes using household fixed effects, and the last three use community fixed effects. The effect of piped water is both positive and significant on height, while its effect on both measures of weight is inconclusive. Furthermore, panels C and D show significantly negative effects of piped water on height for the placebo groups. All this evidence tells the coherent story that piped water significantly benefits health in Indonesia. Study: “Women, Children, and the Dynamics of Conditional Cash Transfers” PI(s),Institution(s): Gabriela Farfan, Duke University Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2013 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Difference-in-Difference Country(ies): Mexico Summary: Using population-level data from the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS), this study examines the impact on child health of a large-scale conditional cash transfer program, Oportunidades. This innovative antipoverty program puts additional resources in the hands of women and their families and encourages parents to invest in human capital of their children. Program income accounts for about 25% of total resources in beneficiary households. The causal impact of the program on child health is isolated by exploiting insights from the biology of child growth in combination with the timing of the roll-out of Oportunidades and the panel dimension of MxFLS. Height for age among children exposed during the first 3 years of life is contrasted with similar children who were not exposed. Study: “The Contribution of Health in Utero to Capacity Formation, Education and Economic Outcomes: Experimental Evidence from Tanzania” PI(s),Institution(s): Plamen Nikolov, Harvard University Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship DatesAugust 2009 – August 2011 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Randomized Controlled Trial Country(ies): Tanzania Summary: Because of the high returns of schooling in developing countries, policymakers pay a lot of attention to increasing school access. But if the mother is deficient in folic acid, brain development in utero can biologically constrain children’s demand for education. Using a more scientifically credible research design than has been used in previous research, the research team examines how reductions in micronutrient deficiency (specifically for folic acid, B6, and B12) in utero affect subsequent child schooling attainment in Tanzania. They also look at the extent to which parents allocate resources to compensate for or to reinforce inequalities in children’s
  16. 16. 16 cognitive endowments. To execute this strategy, this study follows up on a Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) with micronutrient supplements offered to HIV-negative pregnant women in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, between 2001 to 2003. Study: "Economies of Courtship: Gender, Work, and Material Transactions Between Brides and Grooms in Egypt" PI(s),Institution(s): Rania Salem, Harvard University Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2010 – August 2012 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: standard regression and survival analysis techniques Country(ies): Egypt Summary: In many societies the formation of marital unions requires considerable resources. But in Egypt, young people and their families must save for years to afford the real estate, jewelry, furniture, appliances, and celebrations required for marriage. The high cost of marriage has been linked to three important transformations in marriage behavior in Egypt: the rising age at first marriage for young men, greater female contributions to marriage expenses, and the emergence of secret marital unions. The purpose of this mixed-methods dissertation is to investigate the consequences of these changes in marriage behavior for Egypt’s economic development, particularly implications for women’s employment and for socioeconomic and gender inequalities. The study argues that the need to finance marriage is a major factor driving women’s pursuit of wage work in Egypt. Men’s diminished earnings coupled with women’s access to employment have prompted brides to contribute more and more to the costs of marriage. This research also shows that the economic resources women receive at marriage do not enhance their power in relation to husbands, and do not reduce gender inequalities, as theory would predict. Study: “Global and U.S.-based Variations in Social, Health, and Economic Impacts of Family Caregiving” PI(s), Institution(s): Benjamin Capistrant, Harvard University Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2012 Data Source(s): Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health (SAGE) Methods: Data Source and Study Sample Country(ies): China, India, Russia, South Africa, Ghana, and Mexico Summary: In this paper, I capitalize on a new data set to estimate prevalence of care among older adults in five lower and middle income countries: Mexico, Ghana, South Africa, Russia, and India. First, the study examines differences in care needs and provision across these countries. Second, it assesses whether care is differentially provided by gender across all SAGE countries and hypothesizes women are more likely to provide care than men across all SAGE countries. Study: "The economic impact of HIV in South Africa." PI(s), Institution(s): Zoe McLaren, University of Michigan Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2009 – August 2010
  17. 17. 17 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Fixed Effects Regression Analysis at the Community Level Country(ies): South Africa Summary: This study examines the impact of access to AIDS treatment on employment outcomes in South Africa. Antiretroviral (ARV) drug treatment offers promise as an effective policy intervention to improve the lives of the nearly 6 million South Africans who are HIV- positive. In 2004, the government began the rollout of free ARV treatment in public health clinics. Generally, within three to six months of treatment initiation, health status dramatically improves and life expectancy increases. Recent studies have found ARV treatment to be associated with an increase in labor supply and a reduction in absenteeism. One would expect that the improvement in health from access to treatment would raise the productivity of sick workers, which should increase labor force participation, search activity, and employment rates. This research resulted in the creation of a new data set that combines detailed, nationally representative economic data with data from public clinics that provide AIDS treatment. Analyzing data at the community level using seven consecutive waves of survey data from September 2004 to September 2007, provides the first evaluation of the government provision of ARV treatment in South Africa. The results of this study will provide guidance for the targeting of health service provision in limited-resource environments. Better alignment and coordination of health and labor policy can improve the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of government policies in both arenas. Study: "The Importance of Reproductive Health Services: Lessons from the Global Gag Rule" PI(s), Institution(s): Kelly Jones, UC Berkeley Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: September, 2008 – September, 2010 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Fixed effects, individual, calendar month, and nearest policy change Country(ies): Ghana Summary: U.S. development assistance represents a significant source of funding for many population programs in poor countries. The Mexico City policy, known derisively as the global gag rule, restricts activities of foreign NGOs that receive such assistance. The intent of the policy is to reduce the use of abortion in developing countries a policy born entirely of U.S. domestic politics, which turns on and off depending on the political party in power. This research examines whether the policy achieves its aim, and how the policy affects reproductive outcomes for women in Ghana. Employing a woman-by-month panel of pregnancies and woman-fixed effects, the researchers estimate whether a given woman is less likely to abort a pregnancy during two policy periods versus two non-policy periods, and find no evidence that any demographic group reduces the use of abortion as a result of the policy. On the contrary, rural women significantly increase abortions. This affect seems to arise from their increased rate of conception during these times. The policy-induced budget shortfalls reportedly forced NGOs to cut rural outreach services, reducing the availability of contraceptives in rural areas. The lack of contraceptives likely caused the observed 12% increase in rural pregnancies, ultimately resulting in about 200,000 additional abortions and between a half and three-quarters of a million additional unintended births. These additional unwanted births have significantly reduced height- and weight-for-age, relative to their siblings. Rather than reducing abortion, this policy increased
  18. 18. 18 pregnancy, abortion, and unintended births, resulting in more than a half-million children of significantly reduced nutritional status. Study: “Female Empowerment, Intra-Household Decision-Making, Fertility and Economic Development in East Africa” PI(s), Institution(s): Jonas Hjort, UC Berkeley Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2009 – June, 2011 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Randomized Controlled Trial Country(ies): Ethiopia Summary: This research looked at the effect of female employment on (fertility and other) intra-household decision-making, and ensuing income trends, by doing an experimental evaluation of the intra-household effects of parents permanent employment. The paper estimated and explained the impact of mother’s and father’s employment on daughters and sons and used results to inform household theory. Study: "Population and Development in Ethiopia: Investigating the Impact of Fertility Trends on Household Economy (With Particular Reference to Selected Case Studies in Amhara National Regional State)" PI(s), Institution(s): Chalachew Getahun, Addis Ababa University Funding Scheme: IIE Project Dates: 2009-2011 Fellowship Dates: August 2009 – August 2011 Data Source(s): Cross-sectional (HH Survey Implementation) Methods: Qualitative and MV analysis Country(ies): Ethiopia Summary: Theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that, in poor countries, a high fertility rate impedes the economic wellbeing of households and household members. The general objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of fertility on household economic well-being in Ethiopia. The research team developed a household survey in which parents were asked, in a structured interview, about their past fertility behavior and their current economic well-being at a given point in time. The structured interview was supplemented by unstructured discussions (focus group discussions) among samples of participants. Data was analyzed both statistically and textually to understand the link between parents’ fertility and conditions of the household’s economic well-being, and predicted that parents with a low fertility rate will score better in economic well-being. Study: "Effects of Mortality and Fertility on Economic Growth in SSA, 1970-2005" PI(s), Institution(s): Akintunde Temitope, Obafemi Awolowo University Funding Scheme: IIE Project Dates: 2008-2010 Fellowship Dates: November, 2008 – October, 2010 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Cross-national regression Country(ies): Sub-Saharan Africa
  19. 19. 19 Summary: The study assesses the trend and pattern of mortality and fertility rates and investigates the direction of causality between fertility and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The goal of the study was to evaluate the impact of mortality and fertility rates on the economic growth in SSA from 1970 to 2005. While many regions of the world are already experiencing declines in mortality and fertility rates, and increases in economic growth and development; the mortality rate is still high in SSA, the fertility rate is rigidly downwards, and economic growth is also very low. Using secondary data, the study reveals that one-way causality runs from fertility to economic growth and high mortality and fertility rates are contributing to low economic growth in SSA. Study: "A Dynamic Structural Model of Contraceptive Use and Employment Sector Choice for Women in Indonesia" PI(s), Institution(s): Uma Radhakrishnan, University of Virginia Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: September, 2008 – August 2010 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Multilevel analysis Country(ies): Indonesia Summary: In the 1960s, the average Indonesian woman had between five and six children. By the mid-1990s, the average number of children had declined to close to three per woman. A large part of this reduction in fertility has been attributed to the extensive family planning program that was initiated in the late 1960s under the regime of President Suharto. Contraceptive use among married women increased from 5 percent in the late 1960s to approximately 55 percent in the mid-1990s. While there is an extensive literature on the impact of the Family Planning Program on fertility rates and contraceptive use, there has been very little investigation of the program’s impact on other aspects of a woman’s life, such as labor force participation. This research investigates the impact of the Indonesian Family Planning Program on the labor force participation decisions and contraceptive choices of women. The researcher developed a discrete choice dynamic structural model, where each married woman in every period makes joint choices regarding the method of contraceptive used and the sector of employment. Each woman obtains utility from pecuniary sources, non- pecuniary sources, and choice-specific time shocks. In addition to the random shocks, there is uncertainty in the model, as a woman can only imperfectly control her fertility. Several forms of state and duration dependence capture dynamics in the model. Women in this model make different choices due to different preferences, differences in observable characteristics, and realization of uncertainties. The choices made by a woman depend on the compatibility between raising children and the sector of employment (including wages). While making decisions regarding contraceptive use, a woman considers the trade-off between the costs (monetary and nonmonetary) and benefits of having a child. Study: "Reproductive Health, Labor Outcomes, and Pro-Poor Growth in South Africa: A Micro- Simulation Approach" PI(s), Institution(s): Gauthier Tshiswaka-Kashalala, University of Pretoria, South Africa Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: September, 2008 – August 2010
  20. 20. 20 Data Source(s): Cross-sectional Methods: MV analysis Country(ies): South Africa Summary: South Africa has experienced fertility decline, but like many developing countries outside of East Asia, has not seen the parallel decline in poverty and inequality that would signify a demographic bonus from the fertility decline. This study uses microeconomic arguments and household level data on early childbearing and excess fertility to quantitatively analyze the persistence of poverty and inequalities in South Africa. The channels of interest here, through which poor reproductive health outcomes affect the level of poverty and inequalities, are missed labor market opportunities due to ill health and low educational attainment. Results from the quantitative analysis will be used to build a microsimulation model that will be used as a policy tool to evaluate the effects of different poverty reduction strategies. Study: "Economic Impact of Unsafe Induced Abortion in Uganda. " PI(s), Institution(s): Joseph Babigumira, University of Washington Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2008 – August 2010 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Cost-effectiveness analysis Country(ies): Uganda Summary: Almost 300,000 induced abortions are performed annually in Uganda, resulting in 85,000 abortion-related complications and 1,200 deaths. This exerts a substantial morbidity, mortality, and cost burden on the country. The abortions are a consequence of the high prevalence of unintended pregnancies, which are a result of the high level of unmet need for contraception: 33 percent of Ugandan women have an unmet need for effective contraception. Since abortion is illegal in Uganda, it is usually performed in clandestine, unhygienic places by undertrained and unskilled practitioners; and is associated with a wide range of complications and myriad health and economic consequences. Although some aspects of the health impact of abortion have been studied in Uganda, the post hospitalization health impact is not well understood. Also, the economic impact of induced abortion has in general not been well studied. This study characterized the health impact of induced abortion in Uganda by estimating the morbidity, mortality, and costs associated with abortion procedures, abortion complications, hospitalizations, and post hospitalization complications. It also estimated the cost-effectiveness of increasing contraceptive coverage or reducing the unmet need for contraception. The study has three specific aims: to quantify the health and economic impact of the post hospitalization complications of induced abortion; to estimate the national cost of unsafe induced abortions; and to calculate the cost-effectiveness of increasing contraceptive coverage (reducing the unmet need for contraception). These aims will be achieved by performing three independent studies: (1) a six-month observational cohort study comparing the health (outpatient visits, hospitalizations, all-cause mortality, self-reported health, and health-related quality of life) and economic (labor and school participation, earning, and savings) characteristics of women discharged following a complication of induced abortion and women who have not had an induced abortion; (2) a cost-of-illness study to determine the total economic impact of unsafe
  21. 21. 21 induced abortion on Ugandan society; and (3) a decision analytic cost-effectiveness model to calculate the incremental costs and benefits—in terms of lives saved and maternal quality- adjusted life years saved—of increasing contraceptive coverage in Uganda. Study: "Marriage, Labor Supply and Assortative Mating in South Africa" PI(s), Institution(s): Grace Kumchulesi, University of Cape Town Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2008 – June, 2010 Data Source(s): Cross-Sectional Methods: Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition technique Country(ies): South Africa Summary: The broad objective of the study is to investigate declining marriages in the post- apartheid South Africa. The specific objectives are threefold. First, using the independent surveys from 1995 to 2006 and employing the Age-Period-Cohort Model, the study disentangles marriage trends into age, period, and cohort effects to determine whether the change in marital patterns observed in the post-apartheid period is a real shift in marital behavior and not just a trend driven by change in sampling designs and erratic fluctuations. Having established that the change in marriage rates indeed demonstrates a generational change in marital behavior, the second objective focuses on the determinants of women’s marriage decisions. To this end, the study accounts for the interdependence between female labor force participation and marriage decisions by estimating simultaneous equation models using the two-step procedure, which is precisely Maddala’s model 6 (1983, page 246), for each of the years. The third objective begs for an explanation of the trend towards fewer marriages. The analysis from the previous objective signifies that age, education, labor market status, availability of potential partners, and location where one stays are all important factors in a woman’s marriage decision. However, samples drawn from the population at different points in time likely lead to observations that are not identically distributed. The population may have different distributions in variables across time. Thus, simply comparing estimated coefficients from different cross-sections does not clarify whether marriage decline is a result of change in coefficients (functional relationship of a model) or change in characteristics (distribution of characteristics Study: "Economic Cost and Social Consequences of Living with AIDS Orphans on Households in Selected Rural and Urban Communities in South-Western Nigeria: A Cohort Study of Cost Analyses and Coping Strategies" PI(s), Institution(s): Adebola Orimadegun, University of Ibadan, Nigeria Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: October, 2008 – September, 2010 Data Source(s): Cross-Sectional (Primary Data Collection) Methods: Descriptive Country(ies): Nigeria Summary: The HIV/AIDS pandemic has given rise to major demographic changes, including family poverty and a disturbing number of orphans, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria ranks second among sub-Saharan African countries in the number of people living with HIV/AIDS. Nigeria is estimated to have the highest number of AIDS orphans. The estimated
  22. 22. 22 number of maternal AIDS orphans was 1 million in 2001, and may exceed 2 million by 2015. The social and developmental implications of this pose a serious challenge for the fight against the disease and its economic impact on families and the nation. Evidence-based programming underscores the importance of collecting observational data to design and evaluate the health and economic cost of AIDS orphans at the household and community levels. Analysis of cost of care, social consequences, and coping strategies at household level aimed at populations or specific subgroups may produces data that are informative, insightful, and broadly useful in the planning of activities to cater for children orphaned by AIDS with the ultimate goal of reducing poverty, first at household then community- at-large. This study therefore aimed to evaluate the cost of care, social consequences, and coping strategies of AIDS orphans living with their surviving parent or another family in selected rural and urban towns of southwest of Nigeria for the purpose of providing data that may be used to formulate policies and programs that will address the problems of AIDS orphans and related consequences. Study: "Intergenerational and Long-Term Effects of Maternal Malnutrition on Children's Health and Economic Outcomes." PI(s),Institution(s): Winnie Fung, Harvard University Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: September, 2008 – August 2010 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Individual and Community Effects Regression Models Country(ies): China Summary: Developing countries today face the paradoxical dual burden of malnutrition and obesity. It has been hypothesized that early childhood malnutrition leads to a higher risk of adult obesity, although evidence is mixed. This research studies the health outcomes and health behaviors of 30-to-45-year-olds who were born during the 1959 to 1961 Chinese Famine and finds that women who were exposed to famine as infants have a higher BMI (0.84 kg/m2) and are more likely to be obese (by 5 percentage points) than women who were not exposed to famine. The effect of famine exposure increases along the BMI distribution. The study does not find significant effects on obesity for men, nor does it find evidence that the increase in BMI is differentially greater for the famine cohorts who are exposed to a food-rich environment in later life than for the famine cohorts who are not. Using detailed individual-level data on food intake and physical activities, the study shows that the increase in BMI for famine-exposed women is not due to higher fat intakes nor to more sedentary lifestyles. A biological rather than a behavioral mechanism appears to underlie the association between early childhood malnutrition and adult obesity. Study: "How Beliefs about HIV Affect Fertility, Infant and Child Mortality, and Child Schooling Decisions in Rural Malawi" PI(s), Institution(s): Gil Shapira, University of Pennsylvania Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2009 – August 2011 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Dynamic lifecycle model, MV regression Country(ies): Malawi
  23. 23. 23 Summary: This project analyzes how women’s beliefs about their own HIV status affect fertility and intergenerational investments in human capital in rural Malawi. It also evaluates the scope for different policy interventions to affect fertility patterns, infant and child mortality, and child schooling. The researcher develops a dynamic lifecycle model of women’s decision-making with regard to fertility and schooling of children in an environment of uncertainty about own HIV status. The uncertainty about own health status implies uncertainty about the length of one’s own life and the probability of infant mortality. I structurally estimate the model using the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project data set, collected in three rural regions of the country between 1998 and 2008. I use the estimated model to make quantitative predictions about the impact of a range of actual and hypothetical policies. Examples of such policies include (but are not limited to) increasing access to educational and health facilities and services, provision of antiretroviral drugs, and different cash transfer schemes. Study: "Social Networks and the Diffusion of Information and Technology in a Biofortification Program in Uganda" PI(s), Institution(s): Scott McNiven, University of California-Davis Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2009 – August 2011 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Randomized Controlled Trial and follow-up surveys Country(ies): Uganda Summary: This research studied the diffusion of a biofortified crop through social networks and the impact on maternal and child health. With the goal of reducing micronutrient deficiencies, biofortification programs encourage farm households to adopt newly bred crop varieties that are denser in the deficient micronutrients. Biofortification programs are being tested in poor rural areas with weak formal product markets, so the crop and information about it diffuse by word of mouth through social networks. Thus, the architecture of social networks and strength of social norms like altruism, trust, and reciprocity will influence how rapidly, to where, and to whom the technology diffuses. By leveraging an existing prospective randomized controlled trial of a biofortified sweet potato in Uganda, this research estimated the impact both of the program and of social networks and norms on child and maternal health and on crop adoption. Additional data collection will help estimate the spatial and temporal extent of crop and nutrition knowledge diffusion and the role of social networks therein. Study: "Effects of gaining access to health infrastructure and the economic impacts of early childhood nutrition: Evidence of Post-Apartheid South Africa" PI(s), Institution(s): Tanaka Shinsuke, Boston University Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2010 – August 2011 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Difference-in-Difference Community Fixed Effects, Cohort Fixed Effects Country(ies): South Africa Summary: Whether user fees for basic health services should be charged or abolished to the poor has recently been debated. This study examines the impact of removing user fees on child
  24. 24. 24 health status in South Africa. The study’s main innovation is to exploit plausibly the exogenous variation in access to free healthcare, due to the fact that black Africans under apartheid could exercise little political power and residential choice. By comparing health development across ex ante similar children, the study finds that free healthcare improved the health status of boys, but not of girls. Falsification exercises suggest that the results are not driven by preexisting trends or unobserved changes. Study: “Lower Fertility Rates, Smaller Family Sizes, and Social Networks: A Cross-Cultural Investigation.” PI(s), Institution(s): Neha Gondal, Rutgers University Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2010 – August 2012 Data Source(s): Cross-sectional Methods: Binary Logistic Regression and Network Simulation-Based Methodology Country(ies): Cross-national Summary: Increasingly, we live in a world made up of smaller families. While research has delved into many of the socioeconomic and demographic consequences of falling fertility rates, relatively little is known about its implications on the structures and meanings of relationships in which people are embedded. Using regression analysis and Exponential Random Graph Models, this research investigates if individuals with fewer siblings, experience, negotiate, and construct meanings of relationships differently from those with larger families. In addition, the research explores if they tend to occupy distinctive network structural positions. Study: "HIV/AIDS, Life Expectancy, and Fertility and Savings Decisions: How Shocks to Life Expectancy Affect Behavior” PI(s), Institution(s): Erick Gong, University of California-Berkeley Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: July, 2010 – October, 2011 Data Source(s): Cross-Sectional and Weather Data Methods: matching data on an individual's HIV status to data on exposure to recent negative income shocks Country(ies): sub-Saharan Africa Summary: We examine the effects that economic conditions have on the AIDS epidemic in sub- Saharan Africa. Using data from nineteen countries, we find that income shocks lead to substantial increases in HIV prevalence. We match biomarker data on individuals' HIV status from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to data on local rainfall, an exogenous source of variation in income for rural households. Infection rates for women (men) in HIV-endemic rural areas increase significantly by 14% (11%) for every drought event in the previous 10 years. These increases appear driven by an outward shift in the supply of transactional sex. We estimate that income shocks explain up to 20% of the variation in HIV prevalence across African countries. Study: "Child Development Program, Child Health, Women's Labor Supply and Education of Older Female Children in India" PI(s), Institution(s): Monica Jain, UC Riverside Funding Scheme: IIE
  25. 25. 25 Fellowship Dates: August 2010 – August 2012 Data Source(s): Cross-Sectional Methods: Matching and Difference-in-Difference Estimators Country(ies): India Summary: India is home to the largest malnourished child population in the world, with around 80 million children. India’s flagship program and the only national program for combating malnutrition of children is the Integrated Child Development Scheme (ICDS). This research takes advantage of data from the 2005 to 2006 National Family Health Survey on ICDS, which for the first time provides nationwide data on usage of ICDS services at the child level, to look at the impact of its Supplementary Nutrition Program on children’s growth. In addition to the adverse health effects that malnourished children experience, they also increase the burden of caregivers This paper analyzed the effects of increased costs to child care on the labor supply of women and the educational attainment of older female children (absentee mothers). Study: “Life Expectancy, Demographic Changes and Welfare: The Case of Sub-Saharan Africa during the Last Half-Century” PI(s), Institution(s): Bouba Housseini, Universite Laval Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2013 Data Source(s): Panel Data Methods: Panel database Country(ies): Sub-Saharan Africa Summary: The main outcome of this essay is to know how the evaluation of development is altered if changes in life expectancy and population size are considered in addition to economic growth. We will also simulate the effect of fixing factors and then compare the results with those of actual rankings. The joint expected effect of life expectancy and population size on social welfare is not easily predictable since it depends on i) how the two factors affect per capita income, ii) how the two factors interact with each other, and iii) which of the two effects dominates. All these various points remain somewhat a priori ambiguous according to the existing literature. We expect therefore that adding gains in life expectancy and population sizes in social evaluation may help improve the assessment of development compared to that given by looking at income growth solely. Study: “Maternal and Child Health Outcomes in Zambia: Investigating Poverty, Equity and Demand Effects” PI(s), Institution(s): Chama Chitalu Miriam, University of Pretoria Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2013 Data Source(s): Methods: Country(ies): Zambia Summary: This study plans to investigate how changes in poverty affect Zambian maternal and child health, especially analyzing equity effects in the utilization of health services. Study: “Long-Term Effects of Early Childhood Environment”
  26. 26. 26 PI(s), Institution(s): Muhammad Farhan Majid, UC Riverside Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2013 Data Source(s): Cross-Sectional Methods: Family Level Fixed Effects, OLS regression Country(ies): Indonesia Summary: This paper studies the long term effects of maternal fasting during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. By exploiting exogenous variation in timing of Ramadan and timing of birth, including within family members, the study compares outcomes for those potentially exposed to their mothers fasting to those not exposed. Using data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey(IFLS) Wave 3, the study shows that those potentially exposed work fewer hours and are more likely to be self-employed with disproportionate effects on females and rural borns. Though those exposed have worse adult general health, adult health does not seem to be an important channel through which exposure affects labor supply outcomes. When family fixed effects are used, the OLS estimates increase in magnitude suggesting that time invariant family levels co-variates are not explaining these results. Study: “Determinants of Fertility and Poverty in Ghana” PI(s), Institution(s): Nkechi Onuoha, Clark University Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2012 Data Source(s): Methods: Country(ies): Ghana Summary: According to Demographic and Health surveys carried out in sub-Saharan Africa, Ghana is in the lower range of all the countries surveyed, in terms of children's malnutrition status. This paper examines what role the number of children present in a household plays on the nutritional status of children in Ghana from 1988 to 2008. The paper uses micro-level data from the Ghana Demographic and Health survey for children between the ages of zero and five years, and includes information on the number of children in each household. In order to control for the endogenous relationship between the number of household children and child nutritional outcomes, instrumental variable estimations and spatial filtering models are used. The preliminary results of the analysis indicate that the presence of more children in the household has a detrimental impact on child nutritional outcomes, perhaps as a result of a thinner distribution of resources among children. In addition, the presence of other children in the household may increase the exposure to infectious diseases. These results suggest that controlling for other factors such as parent’s education, income, among others; increased fertility among women in Ghana results in lower nutritional status of their children, and makes an argument for the need for women to revise their desired family sizes downwards and control/limit their fertility in order to improve on the general nutritional status of children. Study: “Childbearing and Motherhood in the Context of HIV/AIDS in South Africa” PI(s),Institution(s): Christie Sennott, University of Colorado, Boulder Funding Scheme: IIE Project Dates: 2011-2013
  27. 27. 27 Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2013 Data Source(s): Methods: Country(ies): South Africa Summary: This study will investigate childbearing patterns among rural South African women, especially the relationship between HIV prevalence, AIDS mortality, and antiretroviral therapies. Study: “The Effects of Community-Based Interventions on Women and Children’s Health in Indonesia” PI(s), Institution(s): Margaret Triyana, University of Chicago Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2013 Data Source(s): Panel from CCT program Methods: Instrumental Variables Country(ies): Indonesia Summary: This paper examines the effects of a pilot community-based conditional cash transfer (CCT) program in rural Indonesia on birth outcomes, specifically examining how supply readiness affects the effectiveness of the CCT program. The results show no statistically significant changes in low birth weight following the introduction of the program, but there is an increase in low birth weight in supply ready areas. This suggests better detection in supply ready areas. In addition, I find that regional differences affect program outcomes. The incidence of low birth weight is lower in supply ready areas in Java, Indonesia’s main island, while the incidence of low birth weight is higher in supply ready areas off Java. Study: “Impact of Agricultural Shock on Family Planning and Women’s Labor Market Outcomes; Impact of Parent’s Health on Child Labor" PI(s), Institution(s): Shamma Adeeb Alam, University of Washington Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2012 – August 2014 Data Source(s): Methods: Country(ies): Tanzania Summary: The study plans to investigate if households delay the birth of their next child in response to income shocks in rural Tanzania. Study: “Education, Work and Motherhood: Interrelated Life-Cycle Choices Examined in the United States, Peru and South Africa: PI(s), Institution(s): Tanya Sue Byker, University of Michigan Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2012 – August 2014 Data Source(s): Methods: Country(ies): United States, Peru and South Africa Summary: The study will examine the impact of fertility on women’s employment outcomes, especially the effect of fertility timing on labor-force attachment.
  28. 28. 28 Study: “Dynamic Analysis of Young Women’s Schooling, Marriage, and Fertility Decisions in Senegal" PI(s), Institution(s): Catalina Herrera Almanza, Cornell University Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2012 – August 2014 Data Source(s): Methods: Country(ies): Senegal Summary: Addresses the impact of early marriage, pregnancy, and family planning on schooling decisions and the dropout rates of girls Study: “An Analysis of Population Dynamics, Human Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1980-2010)" PI(s), Institution(s): Kehinde Ajike Olabiyi, Ibafemi Awolowo University in Nigeria Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2012 – August 2014 Data Source(s): Methods: Country(ies): Nigeria Summary: Assesses the trend and pattern of population dynamics indicators and educational developments in Nigeria between 1980 and 2010, especially the implications of human capital accumulation and educational resource. Study: “Spousal Resource Control, Fertility, and Intra-Household Conflict" PI(s),Institution(s): Petra Persson, Columbia University Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2012 – August 2013 Data Source(s): Methods: Country(ies): Summary: Addresses the impact of economic enforcement of the wife within the household, as related to the use of contraception, fertility, and incidents of sexual, emotional, and physical abuse. Study: “Fertility and Intra-Household Bargaining Responses to the Public Provision of Childcare in Rio de Janeiro" PI(s), Institution(s): Maira Emy Nakayama Reimão, University of California, Davis Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2012 – August 2014 Data Source(s): Methods: Country(ies): Brazil Summary: Researches the mechanisms through which fertility responds to improved access to childcare.
  29. 29. 29 Study: “Evaluating the Impact of a Disruption in Publicly-Provided Contraceptive supply on Fertility and Health Outcomes in the Philippines" PI(s), Institution(s): John Michael Ian Sioson Salas, Unversity of California, Irvine Funding Scheme: IIE Fellowship Dates: August 2012 – August 2013 Data Source(s): Methods: Country(ies): Philippines Summary: Explores fertility and demographic consequences of an exogenous reduction in publicly-provided contraceptive supply.
  30. 30. 30 NWO/WOTRO Study: "Impact of Reproductive Health Services on Socio-Economic Development In Sub- Saharan Africa: Connecting Evidence at Macro-, Meso-, and Micro-Level" PI(s), Institution(s): Ruerd Ruben, Radboud University Nijmegen; Switbert Kamazima, Muhimbili University, Dar es Salaam; Abiba Longwe; Judith Westeneng; Idda Mosha; Dereck Chitama; Janine Huisman; Ben d'Excelle; Evert Ketting; Deodatus Kakoko Funding Scheme: NWO/WOTRO Project Dates: October, 2008 – November, 2012 Data Source(s): panel & cross-sectional data Methods: Multilevel analysis, IV Country(ies): Sub-Saharan Africa, with main focus on Northern Tanzania Summary: Whereas knowledge regarding the operational design of reproductive health services is increasingly available, its impact on social and economic development is still poorly understood. This project and its five sub-projects analyze the relationships and interactions between reproductive health (RH) and poverty at the individual/household level, community level, and district level, relying on several data sources. Special attention is given to RH shocks and the impact of availability and use of reproductive health services on individual/household poverty. The research relies on enriched DHS surveys, WB-LSMS panel data, and data collected specifically for this project, followed by a detailed assessment of the likelihood of changes in wealth status. Additional field research is carried out to assess the demand for and use of RH services as well as the supply of these services. The combined analyses provide new insights into how specific reproductive health services can reduce poverty incidence and generate evidence- based policy and program recommendations. Study: "Breaking the Cycle: Reproductive Health and Poverty Decline in Rwanda" PI(s), Institution(s): Pieter Hooimeijer, Utrecht University; Jose Mathai, National University of Rwanda; Dieudonne Muhoza Ndaruhuye; Ignace Habimana Kabano; Joseph Nkurunziza; Tugrul Temel; Pierre-Claver Rutayisire Funding Scheme: NWO/WOTRO Project Dates: January, 2009 – December, 2012 Data Source(s): Cross-sectional Methods: Bivariate logistic regression Country(ies): Rwanda Summary: Despite a high level of economic growth, population growth in Rwanda is still outpacing the rate of poverty reduction. To create the required surplus of capital and labor needed for investments in human capital to arrive at economic development, the cycle of decreasing agricultural productivity, high population growth, and increasing poverty will have to be broken. Reproductive health could be a key mechanism to break this cycle by addressing the high levels of infant and child mortality. The central hypothesis is that reproductive health policies can bring down these levels in the short run and will create the surplus at the household level to invest in the health and education of the children. The feedback effects on the cost- recovery of public services will contribute to the required surplus at the national level, enabling the country to collect the “demographic bonus.” Study: "Family Planning and Women's Sexual and Economic Empowerment"
  31. 31. 31 PI(s), Institution(s): Prof. dr. J.W. Gunning, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Baltazar Chilundo, Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo; Jeremias Ramucesse; postdoc to be determined Funding Scheme: NWO/WOTRO Project Dates: January, 2013 – December, 2014 Data Source(s): Panel, Qualitative Interviews Methods: Randomized Controlled Trial Country(ies): Sub-Saharan Africa, with main focus on Northern Tanzania Summary: The proposed research aims to disentangle the bi-directional relationship between women’s empowerment and family planning. On the one hand, labour market participation directly affects women’s financial independence and consequently their decision-making power and economic autonomy. On the other hand, the ability of women to influence family planning decisions is strongly influenced by their economic and sexual empowerment. The objective of this multidisciplinary research is to conduct two independent but interrelated studies in Mozambique: 1) a quantitative Sexual Behaviour Diaries (SBD) study on women who do not want to become pregnant within the next 12 months with the objective to examine how women?s empowerment status, negotiation skills and awareness in combination with specific social and economic circumstances affect consistent use of family planning methods. To identify effects this study will be combined with a randomized control intervention of a Family Planning program; 2) a quantitative Socio-Economic Diaries (SED) study conducted among pregnant women with the objective to determine how a new born child affects consumption and savings behaviour within the household, female labour market participation, time allocation of (female) household members and nutritional intake. The use of high-frequency quantitative diary data is an innovative method to gain detailed insight into sexual and socio- economic behaviour. The two studies will be preceded by a qualitative study with the objective to determine perceptions, attitudes and barriers towards family planning, fertility and intra- household bargaining. This will allow for a cultural assessment of how much (perceived) power women have over their sexual and reproductive health and their socio-economic preferences.
  32. 32. 32 PRB Center Study: "The Effects of Health and Demographic Change on Economic Growth: Integrating Micro and Macro Perspectives " PI(s), Institution(s): David Weil, Brown University; Andrew Foster, Brown University. Funding Scheme: PRB Center Project Dates: June 2007 – August 2010 Data Source(s): Parameters from microanalysis; panel data; surveys; repeated cross-sections Methods: Simulation Models and MV analysis; IV econometric and simulation models; cross- national regression models; 2-stage least squares and multinomial logit Country(ies): Global, India, Bangladesh Summary: This project incorporates four sub-projects: (1) The Role of Population in Health- Income Causality; Population Growth, Land Fragmentation and Groundwater; (2) Composition Bias in Estimating the Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth; and (3) The Long Term Effects of Child Nutrition and Health on Adult Productivity in Bangladesh. The project aims to increase the understanding of how investments in health and fertility decline contribute to economic growth, focusing on the effects of changes in health and demographic structure on the level of economic activity, the role of demographic change in the sustainable use of environmental resources, and the long-term effects of early child health and nutrition on adult productivity. The first subproject looks at the role that population plays in mediating the relationship between health and income by using microeconomic estimates to build macroeconomic predictions. The second looks at the ways in which population growth affects economic well-being through changes in the quality and level of environmental resources. The third seeks to assess how systematic bias may cause traditional cross-country regression in which GDP per capita or per worker is compared to some measure of demographic status to understate the economic benefit or fertility reduction. The fourth uses longitudinal data to link early nutritional intake, nutritional status, and adult outcomes including productivity. Study: "Reproductive Health, Empowerment of Women and Economic Prosperity" PI(s), Institution(s): Elizabeth Frankenberg and Duncan Thomas, Duke University Funding Scheme: PRB Center Project Dates: October 2007 – September 2010 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Randomized trial Country(ies): Bangladesh, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Africa Summary: Using experimental and non-experimental micro-level data from Bangladesh, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Africa, we measure the effects of investments in family planning and reproductive health services on a broad array of indicators of health and well-being of women, their children, and their families. We pay special attention to estimating the causal effects of these programs on choices about family planning and reproductive health care, on the health and well-being of women and children and on the status of women, their economic productivity, savings, and investment choices. We examine the impact of improvements in women’s health and empowerment on current and future economic prosperity. We also explore whether women’s greater propensity to invest in children, relative to men, can be attributed to differences in preferences, and contrast the attitudes and expectations of males with females. The
  33. 33. 33 research provides new insights into the likely causal mechanisms that underlie associations between population composition and economic growth. Study: "Reproductive and Overall Health Outcomes and Their Economic Consequences for Households in Accra, Ghana" PI(s), Institution(s): Allan Hill, Harvard University; Ernest Aryeetey, University of Ghana; Kelly Blanchard, Ibis Reproductive Health Funding Scheme: PRB Center Project Dates: April 2008 – August 2010 Data Source(s): Cross-Sectional Data (Collection) Methods: Multilevel analysis, Country(ies): Ghana Summary: The analysis indicates that there is a strong and direct connection between women’s illness (and days of work missed due to children’s illnesses). On the other hand, the impact of pregnancy and infant care on women’s economic activity is less clear as poorer mothers work longer hours to compensate. Differentials in fertility are small overall and the total fertility rate is not much above replacement levels. Women are strongly attached to the labor market; they work slightly less during pregnancies but return to the labor market right after giving birth. In the long run, because of women’s duties to their families, children appear to have a direct negative effect on labor supply. The data show an indirect negative effect through the harmful (but small) long- term effects of childbearing on women’s health. Study: "Fertility, Intergenerational Transfers, and Economic Development in South Africa" PI(s), Institution(s): David Lam, University of Michigan; Murray Leibbrandt, University of Cape Town Funding Scheme: PRB Center Project Dates: June 2008 – May 2011 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: IV econometric Country(ies): South Africa Summary: This project analyzes links between fertility, intergenerational transfers, and economic development in South Africa. The project focused on demographic behavior and economic outcomes at the household level in South Africa, taking advantage of key data resources: the Cape Area Panel Study (CAPS), the new National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS), and other South African data sets for identifying the potential impact of reducing teen fertility on women’s human capital and earnings A major focus of the project was on the consequences of South Africa’s high level of teen fertility. Most of this teen fertility is non- marital, and teen mothers are much less likely to finish high school, with potentially important consequences for their own employment opportunities and for the human capital of their children. . Study: "Poverty, Gender Inequities, and Sexual/Reproductive Health: An Impact Evaluation of a Combined Economic and Psycho-social Intervention in Southern Tanzania" PI(s), Institution(s): Will Dow, UC Berkeley Funding Scheme: PRB Center Project Dates: June 2008 – May 2011
  34. 34. 34 Data Source(s): Panel (Data Collection) Methods: Randomized Controlled Trial Country(ies): Tanzania Summary: This project designed, implemented, and evaluated a combined economic and psycho-social intervention on individual/household economic outcomes and sexual/reproductive health outcomes among young people aged 18-30 in a rural area of southern Tanzania. The one year intervention to reduce risky sexual behaviors was implemented as an individual-level randomized trial with control and treatment arms.. The innovative new intervention offered the Treatment group a cash reward (similar to conditional cash transfer programs elsewhere) at 4/8/12 months if the individual tested STI negative at that contact. This Treatment intervention both provided new incentives to reduce risky sexual behaviors, and provided cash which could directly enhance economic well-being in this marginalized population Study: "Experimental Approaches to Assessing the Economic Determinants and Consequences of Contraceptive Adoption in Zambia" PI(s), Institution(s): Nava Ashraf, Harvard University; Erica Field, Harvard University Funding Scheme: PRB Center Project Dates: May 2008 – October 2010 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Randomized Controlled Trial Country(ies): Zambia Summary: Little rigorous empirical evidence exists to substantiate claims that access to reproductive health services and technologies impact the economic lives of women and children, or that decisions about contraceptive use and fertility respond to improvements in economic opportunities. We will use survey and experimental data to establish these causal relationships in urban Zambia. We will assess the impact of increases in access to family planning services on reported fertility desires, contraceptive use, fertility, and economic outcomes. The baseline survey and intervention were implemented in Lusaka, Zambia in 2007. A follow-up survey will facilitate the investigation of the broader impact of contraceptive adoption on outcomes for women and children, a more thorough analysis of decisionmaking within the household about fertility and contraceptive adoption, and an investigation of the importance of peer effects. Study: "35 years Later: Effects of the Matlab Maternal and Child Health and Family Planning Program on Women’s Economic Empowerment" PI(s), Institution(s): Jane Menken, University of Colorado; Abdur Razzaque, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b) Project Date: November 2012 - October 2014 Data Source; Matlab; Panel Data Methods: Country: Bangladesh Summary: Despite the global spread of reproductive health and family planning programs, little is known about long‐term and multigenerational effects on women’s economic and social empowerment. This project will provide causal evidence on such effects, over a 35-year period, of the Matlab Maternal and Child Health and Family Planning Program (MCH‐FP), initiated by icddr,b in the rural Matlab area of Bangladesh in 1977.
  35. 35. 35 Study: Fertility Timing and Women’s Economic Outcomes in South Africa PI(s), Institution(s): Murray Leibbrandt, University of Cape Town; David Lam, University of Michigan. Project Date: November 2012 to October 2014 Data Source: NIDS Country: South Africa Methods: Summary: This project uses unique longitudinal data to analyze the impact of fertility timing on women’s long-run economic outcomes in South Africa, especially on the impacts of teen childbearing; more generally, the timing of first birth; and the number of children on a wide range of long-run economic outcomes, including employment, earnings, migration, and poverty transitions.
  36. 36. 36 PRB Dissertation Fellows Study: "Demographic Change and the Structure of Wages: A Demand-Theoretic Analysis for Brazil" PI(s), Institution(s): Ernesto Amaral, University of Texas, Austin Funding Scheme: PRB Dissertation Fellowship Project Dates: 2006-2007 Data Source(s): Census data Methods: MV analysis Country(ies): Brazil Summary: With rapidly declining fertility and increased longevity the age structure of the labor force in developing countries has changed rapidly. Changing relative supply of workers by age group, and by educational attainment, can have profound effects on labor costs. Their impacts on earnings have been heavily studied in the United States but have received little attention in Asia and Latin America, where supply shocks are at least as large and have often proceeded less evenly across the economy. Using data on 502 local Brazilian labor markets from Censuses 1970-2000, the study examines the extent of substitution among demographic groups as relative supply has changed. The results suggest that age-education groups are imperfect substitutes, so that larger age-education cohorts see depressed wage rates, particularly among more-educated groups. The extent of substitution has increased over time, so that the decreasing size of the least-skilled labor force today is barely raising its remaining members' wages. Study: "Microeconomic impact of HIV Disease among female bar/hotel workers in Northern Tanzania" PI(s), Institution(s): Tony Ao, Harvard University Funding Scheme: PRB Dissertation Fellowship Project Dates: 2006-2008 Data Source(s): Cross-Sectional Methods: MV Logistic Regression Model and Propensity Score Matching Country(ies): Tanzania Summary: The link between economic status and HIV infection is debatable. In the absence of prospective individual-level economic data, we used propensity score matching to help identify a relationship between HIV and economic outcomes among female bar workers and female hotel workers in Moshi, Tanzania. Study: "Measuring the Impact of Young Adult Mortality on the Well-Being of Older Persons in KwaZulu Natal, SA" PI(s), Institution(s): Marjorie Opuni-Akuamoa, Johns Hopkins Funding Scheme: PRB Dissertation Fellowship Project Dates: 2006-2008 Data Source(s): KwaZulu-Natal Income Dynamics Survey (KIDS) Methods: Ordered Probit, fixed effects Country(ies): South Africa
  37. 37. 37 Summary: The specific aims of this study are to: 1) Assess whether the occurrence of a young adult death affects the probabilities of not working, working part-time and working full time for non-pensionable older women (aged 50-59) and non-pensionable men (aged 50-64); 2) to assess if the occurrence of a young adult death is associated with the value of assets households were persons aged 50 years and above live; and 3) to examine if the occurrence of a young adult death affects the self-reported health status of persons aged 50 years and above. Study: "The Hidden Cost of Migration: Effect of Brother’s Migration on Sister’s Marriage Outcomes in Rural Bangladesh" PI(s), Institution(s): Ali Protik, Brown University Funding Scheme: PRB Dissertation Fellowship Project Dates: 2006-2007 Data Source(s): Matlab Demographic Surveillance System Methods: Matching, Fixed-effects logistic regression Country(ies): Bangladesh Summary: This paper examines the effect of brother’s migration on the marriage patterns of sisters in a rural area of Bangladesh. It has been proposed that when sons are migrants, especially when accompanied by their spouses, parents become more willing to marry their daughters nearby to secure care support for their old-age. Such willingness arises because of a missing market for care. Using a rich dataset from the Demographic Surveillance System in Matlab, Bangladesh, which contains 20 years of marriage and migration records from 1974 to 1996, supplemented by a 1974 baseline census, the study compares women who face similar marriage prospects but differ by their brother’s migration status. Consistent with the theoretical predictions of a general equilibrium model, the study shows strong evidence that women with migrant brothers are more likely to marry someone from the same village and are also more likely to marry someone with lower human capital. Study: "Civil Wars beyond their Borders: The Human Capital and Health Consequences of Hosting Refugees" PI(s), Institution(s): Javier Baez, Syracuse University Funding Scheme: PRB Dissertation Fellowship Project Dates: 2007-2008 Data Source(s): Cross-sectional, longitudinal, and weather data Methods: Double and triple difference analysis Country(ies): Tanzania Summary: In early 1994, Kagera, a region in northwestern Tanzania, was flooded by more than 500,000 refugees fleeing from the genocides of Burundi and Rwanda. Using this population shock and a series of topographic barriers that resulted in variation in refugee intensity, this research investigates the short-term and long-term causal effects of hosting refugees on outcomes of local children. This strategy provides evidence of adverse effects over one year after the shock: a worsening of children’s anthropometrics (0.3 standard deviations); an increase in the incidence of infectious diseases (15 percentage points to 20 percentage points); and an increase in mortality for children under age 5 (7 percentage points).
  38. 38. 38 Study: “Experimental Approaches to Assessing the Economic Determinants and Consequences of Contraceptive Adoption in Zambia” PI(s), Institution(s): Jean Nahrae Lee, Harvard University Funding Scheme: PRB Dissertation Fellowship Project Dates: 2007-2009 Data Source: Prospective Data Collection Methods: Field Experiment Country: Zambia Summary: This dissertation focuses on the effects of contraceptive availability on economic outcomes, male involvement and bargaining effects, and peer effects on adoption. Study: "A Space-Time Model of Fertility and Development in China, 1982-2000" PI(s), Institution(s): Katherine King, University of Michigan Funding Scheme: PRB Dissertation Fellowship Project Dates: 2007-2009 Data Source(s): Census Data with GIS maps Methods: Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) and Spatial Panel Regression Models Country(ies): China Summary: Although China is extremely regionally diverse and fertility policy is implemented at a local level, yet research often implicitly assumes spatial homogeneity. This paper applies exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial panel regression models to examine county level variation in fertility rates in China. Spatial statistics reduce bias resulting from spatial and temporal autocorrelation in regression models, while spatial analysis allows detailed examination of relationships between pairs of predictors. Using county-level data from China’s 1982, 1990, and 2000 censuses, the study models general fertility rates and changes in rates using variables related to social economic development characteristics of the counties. While previous results from earlier studies showed a decline in the association of development factors with fertility, the 2000 census data shows that development factors have re-appeared as important predictors of fertility rates. Study: "Women's Property Rights and Gendered Policies: Implications for women's long-term welfare in rural Tanzania" PI(s), Institution(s): Amber Peterman, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill Funding Scheme: PRB Dissertation Fellowship Project Dates: 2007-2009 Data Source(s): Panel Methods: Woman-level fixed effects, MV regression models Country(ies): Tanzania Summary: This paper evaluates effects of community-level women’s property and inheritance rights (WPIR) on women’s economic outcomes using a 13-year longitudinal panel from rural Tanzania. In the preferred model specification, inverse probability weighting (IPW) is applied to a woman-level fixed effects model to control for individual-level time invariant heterogeneity and attrition. Results indicate that changes in WPIR are significantly associated with changes in women’s employment outside the home, self-employment, and earnings. Results are not limited

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