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EQUITY RESEARCH
                                                                                                                                           COMPANY UPDATE

  November 15, 2011                                               HEALTHCARE/EMERGING BIOTECHNOLOGY
  Stock Rating:
  OUTPERFORM
                                                                  KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.
  12-18 mo. Price Target                                  $8.00   Zerenex Alone Supports Current Valuation; Perifosine
  KERX - NASDAQ                                           $2.82   Carries Significant Upside
  3-5 Yr. EPS Gr. Rate                                     NA      SUMMARY
  52-Wk Range                                      $5.91-$2.58    This weekend Keryx presented a poster supporting a pharmacoeconomic argument
  Shares Outstanding                                    71.0M     behind using Zerenex in high-dose ESA patients. In our prior valuation of the
  Float                                                 40.2M     company, we combined the models for Zerenex and perifosine and derived a single
  Market Capitalization                               $200.3M     NPV. Given the stock's recent weakness and the concerns raised about perifosine
  Avg. Daily Trading Volume                         1,501,492     (despite a positive DSMC meeting), we looked at the value of Zerenex as a
                                                                  stand-alone asset, which we believe is worth ~$3/share. While investors are
  Dividend/Div Yield                                   NA/NM
                                                                  focused on perifosine Phase III results in colorectal cancer, anticipated in 1Q12, we
  Fiscal Year Ends                                        Dec     believe that the negative outcome is largely factored in at the current valuation, and
  Book Value                                             $0.28    we believe that Zerenex will serve as a valuation floor for the perifosine bear thesis.
  2007E ROE                                                NA     We reiterate our Outperform rating and $8 target.
  LT Debt                                                  NA      KEY POINTS
  Preferred                                                NA
                                                                  s     We would like to be crystal clear that our view on perifosine has not changed. In
  Common Equity                                          $23M
                                                                        our opinion, the overenrollment in the Phase III study validates the unmet
  Convertible Available                                    No
                                                                        medical need in refractory colorectal cancer, and the positive DSMC review last
  EPS Diluted           Q1   Q2     Q3      Q4    Year    Mult.         month confirms perifosine's safety.
  2010A            (0.07) (0.09) (0.10) (0.09) (0.34)       NM    s     The pharmacoeconomic analysis of Zerenex was performed by DaVita, the
  2011E           (0.10)A (0.05)A (0.15)A (0.14) (0.45)     NM          second-largest dialysis provider in the US, with ~1/3 of the overall market. The
  2012E            (0.25) (0.26) (0.20)    0.13 (0.53)      NM          analysis assumed Zerenex pricing on par with current phosphate binders' and
                                                                        the iron increase observed in studies to date.
                                                                  s     The data suggests cost savings of $320/patient/month in high-dose ESA users.
                                                                        Since our model assumes a more competitive Zerenex price, the cost savings
                                                                        could be even higher. As such, we believe that our peak market share of 15%
                                                                        for Zerenex in the US is conservative and justified.
                                                                  s     Based on our assumption of a peak market share of 15% and pricing of
                                                                        $2.5K/year for Zerenex (for reference, Renagel and Fosrenol are priced at
                                                                        $3-5K/year), we built an NPV model for Zerenex (see p.5). The analysis
                                                                        suggests that Zerenex is worth $3.10/share, a slight discount to KERX's current
                                                                        valuation.




                                                                  Stock Price Performance                                                  Company Description

                                                                                   1 Year Price History for KERX
                                                                                                                                           Keryx Biopharmaceuticals a late-stage
                                                                                                                                       6
                                                                                                                                           biotechnology company with two drugs
                                                                                                                                       5
                                                                                                                                           in Phase III clinical studies. The
                                                                                                                                       4   company's pipeline is focused on
                                                                                                                                       3   oncology and nephrology.
                                                                                                                                       2
                                                                                                                                       1
                                                                   Q3                     Q1        Q2         Q3
                                                                            2011                                               2012
                                                                                                               Created by BlueMatrix




                                                                  Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As
                                                                  a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the
Boris Peaker, Ph.D., CFA                                          objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
212 667-8564                                                      investment decision. See "Important Disclosures and Certifications" section at the end of this report for
Boris.Peaker@opco.com                                             important disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest. See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks
                                                                  to Price Target" sections at the end of this report, where applicable.

                                                                  Oppenheimer & Co Inc. 300 Madison Avenue New York, NY 10017 Tel: 800-221-5588 Fax: 212-667-8229
KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.




                                 Pharmacoeconomic Data Supports Zerenex
                                 We believe that the posters presented at the American Society of Nephrology this
                                 past weekend confirm the pharmacoeconomic benefit of Zerenex. As a reminder,
                                 Zerenex (ferric citrate) is a phosphate binder that also improves iron stores by
                                 decreasing usage of ESA, the most expensive drug utilized in dialysis. The current
                                 reimbursement trend in dialysis capitates reimbursement on a per patient basis
                                 (adjusted for complications), which places pressure on the providers to minimize
                                 ESA usage while at the same time maintaining minimal Hb targets. We believe that
                                 a phosphate binder (an essential drug for the majority of dialysis patients) like
                                 Zerenex, which may reduce ESA usage and associated costs, may be
                                 economically attractive to dialysis providers.

                                 Zerenex Carries Relatively Low Clinical Trial Success Risk
                                 Over the last several months, there has been a debate in the investor community
                                 regarding the success or failure of perifosine in the ongoing Phase III (X-PECT)
                                 trial in refractory colorectal cancer. While we maintain our positive view on this
                                 study based on the strong data observed in the Phase II, we believe that Zerenex
                                 carries a lower clinical trial risk than perifosine. Specifically, Zerenex has shown a
                                 strong efficacy and an excellent safety profile in the studies to date, and phosphate
                                 binder study outcomes tend to be quite consistent with prior data. We assess a
                                 probability of approval for Zerenex of 80% in the US and 75% in Japan.

                                 Phase III Program Includes Short- and Long-Term Studies
                                 Based on the positive results from the Phase IIb program (Exhibits 1 and 2), Keryx
                                 has negotiated a Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) with the FDA for a
                                 registration program for Zerenex.


                                 Exhibit 1: Phase IIB Dose Ranging Efficacy Data For Zerenex
                                                             Placebo        2g/day                  4g/day          6g/day
                                                              n = 16        n = 31                  n = 32          n = 32
                                Change in serum phosphorus concentration (mg/dL)
                                Baseline (day 0)             7.2 ± 1.4     7.2 ± 1.2               7.1 ± 1.3       7.3 ± 1.3
                                End of treatment (day 28)    7.2 ± 1.2     6.9 ± 2.2               6.0 ± 1.3       5.8 ± 1.8

                                Mean difference from placebo                        -0.02            -1.1            -1.5
                                p-value                                         Not significant      0.06           0.0119

                                Mean difference from baseline        -0.1            -0.3            -1.1            -0.5
                                p-value                         Not significant Not significant Not significant     <0.01
                                Change in calcium×phosphorus (mg/dL)
                                Baseline (day 0)            62.8 ± 13.9          62.9 ± 13.2      63.5 ± 10.7     65.8 ± 12.2
                                End of treatment (day 28)   63.2 ± 12.6          61.7 ± 21.3      55.4 ± 13.4     54.1 ± 17.7

                                Mean difference from placebo                         -0.9            -7.91           -11.4
                                p-value                                             0.895           0.1375          0.0378

                                Mean difference from baseline        -0.3            -1.1            -8.1           -11.7
                                p-value                         Not significant Not significant Not significant     <0.01
                                 Source: Company report




2
KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.




Exhibit 2: Phase IIB Dose Ranging Safety Data For Zerenex
Adverse events                          Placebo          2g/day            4g/day            6g/day
Mild                                    7 (43.8%)      13 (39.4%)         9 (26.5%)        14 (42.4%)
Severe                                  1 (6.23%)           0             2 (5.9%)          1 (3.0%)
Possibly related to drug                 4 (25%)     7 (21.2%)            8 (23.5%)        7 (21.2%)
Source: Company report


     The Phase III program includes a randomized, open-label, short-term study (28
     days), which enrolled 146 patients. Subjects were randomized (1:1:1) to one of
     three doses of Zerenex (1, 6 or 8 grams/day) following a two-week washout period
     from their prior phosphate binders. The primary endpoint of the study is dose
     response in the change of serum phosphorus from baseline. The long-term study is
     also randomized and open-label, and includes a two-week washout period.
     However, the long-term trial will enroll twice the number of dialysis patients (~300)
     and assess safety over 52 weeks compared to the short-term study. Additionally, at
     the end of the 52-week period, patients will be randomized (1:1) to either continue
     on Zerenex or placebo.

     Final results for the short-term study were presented at the National Kidney
     Foundation meeting in late April 2011 (Exhibit 3). The data shows that patients
     were well randomized, with a baseline serum phosphorus level of 7.3-7.6 mg/dL
     across the three arms of the trial. The data also indicates that patients in the
     8g/day arm reached the normal range for serum phosphorus (<5.5mg/dL), while
     the 6g/day arm came very close (5.7mg/dL). Both results were highly statistically
     significant (p<0.0001). We view these results as encouraging, considering the
     short duration of the study. Additionally, while the 6g/day (6 pills/day) dose did not
     reach the threshold of normal, we believe that results are likely to improve with
     additional duration on drug as was observed in the Taiwanese extension study.
     The investigators also noted a positive increase in ferritin (iron stores) and TSAT
     (the ratio of serum iron to total iron-binding capacity) in the 6g and 8g groups.
     Zerenex appeared to be safe and well tolerated with gastroenterological side
     effects that were generally mild. No severe adverse events were deemed to be
     drug-related by the Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB). Additionally, the lead
     investigator of the trial, Dr. Julia Lewis, further highlighted the attractive profile of
     Zerenex, which included excellent reduction of serum phosphorus, increase in
     bicarbonate, and modest increase in iron.


               Exhibit 3: Efficacy Results From Short Phase III Study of
               Zerenex
                                          1g/day      6g/day          8g/day
                                          n = 50      n = 51          n = 45
          Baseline Serum Phosphorus
                                             7.3         7.6            7.5
          (at end of washout), mg/dL
          Serum Phosphorus at Day 28,
                                             7.4         5.7            5.3
          mg/dL
          Change from Baseline to Day                  -1.9            -2.2
                                             0.1
          28, mg/dL                                 (p<0.0001)      (p<0.0001)
          % change from Baseline to
                                           0.50%       -25%           -28.8%
          Day 28, mg/dL
               Source: Company report




                                                                                                         3
KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.




                                Phase III Studies Ongoing In US and Japan; EU Authorities Give
                                Positive Opinion
                                Keryx is currently conducting the long-term Phase III trial, which completed
                                enrollment in September 2011. The study will add to the safety and efficacy
                                dataset for Zerenex, and will further define Zerenex’s product profile. The final data
                                is anticipated a year later in 4Q12, followed by an NDA filing and potential approval
                                in 2H13. In parallel, Keryx’s Japanese partner, JT Torri (Torii Pharmaceuticals is
                                the pharmaceutical subsidiary of Japan Tobacco), conducted their own placebo-
                                controlled, double-blind Phase II study of Zerenex for 28-days following a three-
                                week washout period in ~160 patients. Following the successful results from the
                                Phase II study, a Japanese Phase III program was initiated in April 2011.
                                Additionally, in May 2011 the European Medicines Agency (EMEA) gave a positive
                                opinion on the Zerenex development program. This means that if the Phase III is
                                successful, the combined data package is adequate to file for European approval
                                of Zerenex without requiring additional studies.

                                Zerenex Alone Supports Current Valuation
                                We assess our value for Zerenex based on an NPV analysis (Exhibit 4). Our target
                                market estimate is the end stage renal disease (ESRD) population in the US
                                (~592,000 people in 2011), 80% of whom are estimated to require chronic
                                phosphate binder therapy. We assumed a price point for Zerenex of $2,500/patient
                                year, which we believe is a conservative estimate given the cost of ~$5K/year for
                                Renagel (market leader). Our pricing assumption is based on the expectation of a
                                generic Renagel launched in the US following patent expiry in 2014. Our market
                                share assumption commences with 1% of the US market in 2013 (partial year) and
                                grows to 15% in five years. We believe that the 15% peak market share is
                                conservative and may be heavily influenced by the reimbursement rules that may
                                come into effect in 2014. Our market share estimate is predicated on Renagel
                                remaining the dominant phosphate binder, with Zerenex prescribed to patients who
                                do not adequately respond to Renagel or other phosphate binders. Combining
                                these estimates we arrive at US sales of ~$300M+ for Zerenex.

                                For expenses we estimate $8M in milestones to Panion ($3M upon successful
                                outcome in the long-term in Phase III study and $5M upon approval) and a 5%
                                royalty on US sales. We estimate costs of goods sold at 9% of revenue and sales
                                & marketing costs reaching 25% of US sales. We extend our model through 2021
                                based on the expiry of the composition of matter patent in 2017 and assumed 4-
                                year patent extension based on Hatch-Waxman legislation. We further adjust the
                                cash flow in each year by the probability of occurrence, with 100% probability to
                                the costs in the years through 2013 and 80% of success in reaching market. We
                                believe that the risk of gaining FDA approval for Zerenex is lower than for an
                                average drug based on the encouraging results from the clinical trials conducted to
                                date and the well-understood mechanism of action. In our view the greatest
                                uncertainties in the commercial value of Zerenex in the US are associated with its
                                product profile and reimbursement environment.

                                For the Japanese market we estimated that Keryx could receive $10M upon
                                successful completion of clinical studies and another $20M upon approval in 2014.
                                For the market size we estimated total Japanese sales to be ~1/3 of the US, and
                                for Keryx to receive a 15% royalty rate on total Japanese sales. Further, we
                                assigned a 75% probability of success to the approval of Zerenex in Japan.




4
KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.




Exhibit 4: Zerenex Commercial Model in US and Japan
   Zerenex US                                               2011   2012    2013    2014   2015   2016   2017   2018   2019   2020   2021
   ESRD patients in the US (000s)                            592    615     640     666    692    720    749    779    810    842    876
   Patients on phosphate binders (000s)                      473    492     512     532    554    576    599    623    648    674    701
   Price ($/patient year)                                                  2500    2575   2652   2732   2814   2898   2985   3075   3167
   Market Share                                                             1%      4%     6%     8%    15%    15%    15%    15%    15%
   US Revenue ($M)                                                          18      55     88    126    253    271    290    311    333

   Expenses
   Royalty to Panion ($M)                                                    1      3      4      6     13     14      15     16    17
   Milestones to Panion ($M)                                         3       5
   COGS ($M)                                                         0       2      5      8     11     23     24      26     28    30
   Sales & Marketing ($M)                                    2       2      10     20     26     38     63     68      73     78    83
   R&D + G&A ($M)                                            7       9      12      5      2      2      2      2       2      2     2

   Net pre-tax cashflow ($M)                                (9)     (14)    (12)    22     47     68    152    163    175    188    201
   Probability of cashflow                                 100%    100%    100%    80%    80%    80%    80%    80%    80%    80%    80%
   Risk-adjusted pre-tax cashflow ($M)                      (9)     (14)    (12)    18     38     55    122    131    140    150    161

   Zerenex in Japan
   Japan Milestones ($M)                                                    10      20
   Japanese Sales (by JT Torii in $M)                                                6     18     29     42     84     90     97    104
   Royalty to Keryx on Japan sales ($M)                                              1      3      4      6     13     14     15     16
   Total Japanese cashflows to Keryx ($M)                                   10      27     21     34     48     97    104    111    119
   Probability of cashflow                                                 75%     75%    75%    75%    75%    75%    75%    75%    75%
   Risk-adjusted pre-tax cashflows ($M)                                      8      20     16     25     36     73     78     83     89

   Total risk-adjusted pre-tax Zerenex cashflows ($M)        (9)    (14)    (4)    38     54     80     158    203    218    233    250


   Pre-Tax Risk Adjusted Cashflow
   Zerenex ($MM)                                             (9)    (14)    (4)    38     54     80     158    203    218    233    250
   Perifosine in colorectal ($M)
   Perifosine in multiple myeloma ($M)
   Total Risk-Adjusted Pre-tax cashflows                     (9)    (14)    (4)    38     54     80     158    203    218    233    250
   Taxes                                                      0      0       0     13     19     28      55     71     76     82     88
   After-tax cashflow                                        (9)    (14)    (4)    25     35     52     103    132    142    152    163


   Discount rate                                            15%
   NPV ($M)                                                 270
   NPV per share                                           $3.10

Source: Oppenheimer & Co. estimates.


                                                 Potential Upsides to Our Zerenex Model

                                                 Penetration of Pre-Dialysis Market
                                                 Although phosphate binders are primarily utilized in dialysis patients, there is
                                                 suggestive medical evidence that patients in late stage kidney failure who are not
                                                 yet on dialysis may benefit from phosphate binders as well. There are no
                                                 phosphate binders approved for pre-dialysis in the US, but Renvela and Fosrenol
                                                 are approved for pre-dialysis in some European countries. We believe that a
                                                 potential off-label use of Zerenex in pre-dialysis and/or formal approval in pre-
                                                 dialysis may significantly expand its potential market. In our opinion, additional
                                                 studies are likely necessary for label expansion in pre-dialysis.

                                                 Pricing
                                                 We assumed a price of $2,500 per patient per year to remain competitive with the
                                                 likely launch of generic Renagel in 2014 or 2015. However, if Zerenex shows
                                                 significant improvements outside of serum phosphorus reduction, such as reduced
                                                 need for iron, ESAs, and/or improved metabolic acidosis profile, a price point of
                                                 $3,000-5,000 per year may be justifiable.

                                                 Market Penetration
                                                 Similar to the pricing upside described above, we believe that if Zerenex shows
                                                 significant benefits outside of serum phosphorus and pill burden reduction, it may




                                                                                                                                                 5
KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.




                                potentially gain much higher than the 15% peak market share that we currently
                                estimate.

                                Patent Extension
                                Our model assumes the expiry of Zerenex’s exclusivity in 2021. However, the
                                patent estate includes a manufacturing patent extending through 2023. An
                                extension of Zerenex’s exclusivity could further increase its commercial value.

                                Risks To Our Zerenex Thesis And NPV Model
                                There are multiple risks and uncertainties associated with investment in
                                development-stage biotechnology companies. We recommend that investors
                                review Keryx’s regulatory filings for the detailed summary of investment risks, and
                                below we highlight the top three risks that relate to our Zerenex thesis and NPV
                                model.

                                Dialysis Reimbursement Risk
                                The reimbursement regulations for dialysis are evolving rapidly, from an inclusion
                                of injectable drugs into a fixed reimbursement bundle in 2011, to the likely addition
                                of oral drugs, like phosphate binders, to the fixed payment bundle in 2014. It is
                                possible that the combination of these two variables (low incremental bundle
                                increase for the addition of oral drugs and low penalty for high serum phosphorus)
                                may jeopardize Zerenex’s value proposition in the context of generic Renagel.

                                Competitive Risk
                                There are multiple approved phosphate binders, as well as competing products in
                                development. The patent for Renagel, the leading phosphate binder in the US,
                                expires in 2014. The introduction of generic Renagel, in addition to potential
                                approval of new phosphate binders, may negatively impact Zerenex’s commercial
                                potential.

                                Clinical Trial Risk
                                There is a risk that the current ongoing Phase III trial of Zerenex may show an
                                unexpected safety finding, which could negatively impact the approvability of the
                                drug and/or its label if approved.




                                Stock prices of other companies mentioned in this report (as of 11/12/2011):

                                Davita Inc. (DVA-NYSE, $74.81, Not Rated)




6
KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.




Exhibit 5: Keryx Income Statement
Historical and Projected Income Statement                        Mar-10    Jun-10    Sep-10    Dec-10               Mar-11    Jun-11   Sep-11   Dec-11            Mar-12   Jun-12   Sep-12    Dec-12
                                                        FY09A                                            FY10A                                           FY11E                                         FY12E     FY13E
FY Ending Dec 31st                                                1QA       2QA       3QA       4QA                  1QA       2QA      3QA      4QE               1QE      2QE      3QE       4QE

REVENUE
Perifosine Revenue                                                                                                                                                                  5,000     25,000   30,000    321,484
Zerenex Revenue                                                                                                                                                                                                   17,918
License revenue                                         21,616                                                                5,000                      5,000                                 8,000   8,000      10,000
Service revenue
Other revenue                                            3,575
Total Revenue                                           25,191                                                                5,000                      5,000                      5,000     33,000   38,000    349,401

OPERATING EXPENSES
Cost of Good Sold                                                                                                                                                                     250      1,250    1,500     17,687
Non-cash research and development                       1,233     242       434       322       238       1,236      259       205      152      200       816      400      400      450       450     1,700      2,700
Operating research and development                      7,372    2,554     3,129     3,901     4,144     13,728     4,618     6,295    8,620    8,500    28,033    6,500    5,000    4,000     4,000   19,500     14,000
Non-cash general and administrative                     1,867     407       261       291       278       1,237      314       314      320      300      1,248     350      350      350       350     1,400      1,800
Operating general and administrative                    4,904     898      1,356     1,419     1,341      5,014     1,284     1,404    1,263    1,200     5,151    1,400    1,500    1,600     1,600    6,100      7,500
Sales & Marketing                                                                                                                                                  9,000   12,000   14,000    15,000   50,000    104,445
Total Operating Expenses                                15,376   4,101     5,180     5,933     6,001     21,215     6,475     8,218    10,355   10,200   35,248   17,650   19,250   20,400    21,400   78,700    130,445
Operating (loss) income                                 9,815    (4,101)   (5,180)   (5,933)   (6,001)   (21,215)   (6,475)   (3,218) (10,355) (10,200) (30,248) (17,650) (19,250) (15,400) 11,600     (40,700) 218,956
Interest and other income, net                           667       86        26        85       567        764        70       122      108      100      400      120      120      120     120         480      600
(Loss) income before income taxes                       10,482   (4,015)   (5,154)   (5,848)   (5,434)   (20,451)   (6,405)   (3,096) (10,247) (10,100) (29,848) (17,530) (19,130) (15,280) 11,720     (40,220) 219,556
Income taxes                                                                                               120
Gain from discontinued operations                                                               120
Net (loss) income                                       10,482   (4,015)   (5,154)   (5,848)   (5,314)   (20,331)   (6,405)   (3,096) (10,247) (10,100) (29,848) (17,530) (19,130) (15,280) 11,720     (40,220) 219,556
Basic and diluted income (loss) per share                0.21    (0.07)    (0.09)    (0.10)    (0.09)     (0.34)    (0.10)    (0.05)   (0.15)   (0.14)   (0.45)   (0.25)   (0.26)   (0.20)     0.13     (0.53)    2.49
Weighted average basic and diluted shares outstanding   50,499   56,881    58,427    59,325    59,425    58,988     61,550    66,287   70,484   70,643   67,042   71,293   74,493   77,693    87,782   75,468    88,282

Source: Oppenheimer & Co. estimates.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           7
KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.




    Investment Thesis
    Keryx is a development-stage biotechnology company with a therapeutic focus in oncology and renal disease. Keryx has
    two drugs, perifosine and Zerenex, in Phase III studies conducted under Special Protocol Assessments from the FDA.
    Perifosine also received a Fast Track designation, which suggests that it addresses a life-threatening condition and a
    significant unmet medical need, and allows for a six-month FDA review cycle. We believe that the company is well
    positioned to capitalize on the potential commercial value of its assets in the US and ex-US.
    Price Target Calculation
    We derive our price target for Keryx shares based on an NPV calculation (see Exhibit 4). We estimate the commercial value for
    perifosine in colorectal cancer and multiple myeloma as well as Zerenex in hyperphosphatemia, and combine these assessments in our
    NPV calculation.


    Key Risks to Price Target
    Risks to our price target include clinical trial risk, reimbursement risk and competitive risks.


    Note: We view KERX, as a stock trading under $5, as speculative and appropriate for risk-tolerant investors.



    Important Disclosures and Certifications
    Analyst Certification - The author certifies that this research report accurately states his/her personal views about the
    subject securities, which are reflected in the ratings as well as in the substance of this report.The author certifies that no
    part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views
    contained in this research report.
    Potential Conflicts of Interest:
    Equity research analysts employed by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. are compensated from revenues generated by the firm
    including the Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Investment Banking Department. Research analysts do not receive compensation
    based upon revenues from specific investment banking transactions. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. generally prohibits any
    research analyst and any member of his or her household from executing trades in the securities of a company that such
    research analyst covers. Additionally, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. generally prohibits any research analyst from serving as an
    officer, director or advisory board member of a company that such analyst covers. In addition to 1% ownership positions in
    covered companies that are required to be specifically disclosed in this report, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. may have a long
    position of less than 1% or a short position or deal as principal in the securities discussed herein, related securities or in
    options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. Recipients of this report are advised that any or all of the
    foregoing arrangements, as well as more specific disclosures set forth below, may at times give rise to potential conflicts of
    interest.




8
KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.




                                 Rating and Price Target History for: KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc. (KERX) as of 11-14-2011

    05/16/11          06/07/11
      I:O:$7             O:$8


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               2009                                          2010                                    2011                                         2012




                                                                                                                          Created by BlueMatrix



All price targets displayed in the chart above are for a 12- to- 18-month period. Prior to March 30, 2004, Oppenheimer &
Co. Inc. used 6-, 12-, 12- to 18-, and 12- to 24-month price targets and ranges. For more information about target price
histories, please write to Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., 300 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10017, Attention: Equity Research
Department, Business Manager.




Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Rating System as of January 14th, 2008:


Outperform(O) - Stock expected to outperform the S&P 500 within the next 12-18 months.


Perform (P) - Stock expected to perform in line with the S&P 500 within the next 12-18 months.


Underperform (U) - Stock expected to underperform the S&P 500 within the next 12-18 months.


Not Rated (NR) - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. does not maintain coverage of the stock or is restricted from doing so due to a potential
conflict of interest.


Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Rating System prior to January 14th, 2008:


Buy - anticipates appreciation of 10% or more within the next 12 months, and/or a total return of 10% including dividend payments,
and/or the ability of the shares to perform better than the leading stock market averages or stocks within its particular industry sector.


Neutral - anticipates that the shares will trade at or near their current price and generally in line with the leading market averages due to
a perceived absence of strong dynamics that would cause volatility either to the upside or downside, and/or will perform less well than
higher rated companies within its peer group. Our readers should be aware that when a rating change occurs to Neutral from Buy,
aggressive trading accounts might decide to liquidate their positions to employ the funds elsewhere.


Sell - anticipates that the shares will depreciate 10% or more in price within the next 12 months, due to fundamental weakness
perceived in the company or for valuation reasons, or are expected to perform significantly worse than equities within the peer group.




                                                                                                                                                         9
KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.




                                                    Distribution of Ratings/IB Services Firmwide


                                                         IB Serv/Past 12 Mos.

         Rating                        Count   Percent    Count      Percent

         OUTPERFORM [O]                 328      55.30       145        44.21
         PERFORM [P]                    257      43.30        84        32.68
         UNDERPERFORM [U]                8        1.30         3        37.50




     Although the investment recommendations within the three-tiered, relative stock rating system utilized by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. do not
     correlate to buy, hold and sell recommendations, for the purposes of complying with FINRA rules, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has assigned
     buy ratings to securities rated Outperform, hold ratings to securities rated Perform, and sell ratings to securities rated Underperform.




     Company Specific Disclosures
     In the past 12 months Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has provided investment banking services for KERX.

     Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3
     months from KERX.

     In the past 12 months Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for KERX.

     In the past 12 months Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has received compensation for investment banking services from KERX.

     Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. makes a market in the securities of KERX.




     Additional Information Available


     Please log on to http://www.opco.com or write to Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., 300 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10017,
     Attention: Equity Research Department, Business Manager.




     Other Disclosures
     This report is issued and approved for distribution by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc transacts Business on all Principal
     Exchanges and Member SIPC. This report is provided, for informational purposes only, to institutional and retail investor clients of
     Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction
     where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. The securities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all types of investors.
     This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any particular client of
     Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Recipients should consider this report as only a single factor in making an investment decision and should not
     rely solely on investment recommendations contained herein, if any, as a substitution for the exercise of independent judgment of the
     merits and risks of investments. The analyst writing the report is not a person or company with actual, implied or apparent authority to
     act on behalf of any issuer mentioned in the report. Before making an investment decision with respect to any security recommended in
     this report, the recipient should consider whether such recommendation is appropriate given the recipient's particular investment needs,




10
KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.




objectives and financial circumstances. We recommend that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and
encourage investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor.Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. will not treat non-client recipients as its clients
solely by virtue of their receiving this report.Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and no representation or warranty,
express or implied, is made regarding future performance of any security mentioned in this report. The price of the securities mentioned
in this report and the income they produce may fluctuate and/or be adversely affected by exchange rates, and investors may realize
losses on investments in such securities, including the loss of investment principal. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. accepts no liability for any
loss arising from the use of information contained in this report, except to the extent that liability may arise under specific statutes or
regulations applicable to Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.All information, opinions and statistical data contained in this report were obtained or
derived from public sources believed to be reliable, but Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. does not represent that any such information, opinion or
statistical data is accurate or complete (with the exception of information contained in the Important Disclosures section of this report
provided by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. or individual research analysts), and they should not be relied upon as such. All estimates, opinions
and recommendations expressed herein constitute judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change without
notice.Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice. Since the levels and bases of taxation can change, any reference
in this report to the impact of taxation should not be construed as offering tax advice on the tax consequences of investments. As with
any investment having potential tax implications, clients should consult with their own independent tax adviser.This report may provide
addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, Internet web sites. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has not reviewed the linked Internet web site of any
third party and takes no responsibility for the contents thereof. Each such address or hyperlink is provided solely for the recipient's
convenience and information, and the content of linked third party web sites is not in any way incorporated into this document.
Recipients who choose to access such third-party web sites or follow such hyperlinks do so at their own risk.

This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.
Copyright © Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. 2011.




                                                                                                                                         11

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Oppenheimer Report Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc.

  • 1. EQUITY RESEARCH COMPANY UPDATE November 15, 2011 HEALTHCARE/EMERGING BIOTECHNOLOGY Stock Rating: OUTPERFORM KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc. 12-18 mo. Price Target $8.00 Zerenex Alone Supports Current Valuation; Perifosine KERX - NASDAQ $2.82 Carries Significant Upside 3-5 Yr. EPS Gr. Rate NA SUMMARY 52-Wk Range $5.91-$2.58 This weekend Keryx presented a poster supporting a pharmacoeconomic argument Shares Outstanding 71.0M behind using Zerenex in high-dose ESA patients. In our prior valuation of the Float 40.2M company, we combined the models for Zerenex and perifosine and derived a single Market Capitalization $200.3M NPV. Given the stock's recent weakness and the concerns raised about perifosine Avg. Daily Trading Volume 1,501,492 (despite a positive DSMC meeting), we looked at the value of Zerenex as a stand-alone asset, which we believe is worth ~$3/share. While investors are Dividend/Div Yield NA/NM focused on perifosine Phase III results in colorectal cancer, anticipated in 1Q12, we Fiscal Year Ends Dec believe that the negative outcome is largely factored in at the current valuation, and Book Value $0.28 we believe that Zerenex will serve as a valuation floor for the perifosine bear thesis. 2007E ROE NA We reiterate our Outperform rating and $8 target. LT Debt NA KEY POINTS Preferred NA s We would like to be crystal clear that our view on perifosine has not changed. In Common Equity $23M our opinion, the overenrollment in the Phase III study validates the unmet Convertible Available No medical need in refractory colorectal cancer, and the positive DSMC review last EPS Diluted Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Mult. month confirms perifosine's safety. 2010A (0.07) (0.09) (0.10) (0.09) (0.34) NM s The pharmacoeconomic analysis of Zerenex was performed by DaVita, the 2011E (0.10)A (0.05)A (0.15)A (0.14) (0.45) NM second-largest dialysis provider in the US, with ~1/3 of the overall market. The 2012E (0.25) (0.26) (0.20) 0.13 (0.53) NM analysis assumed Zerenex pricing on par with current phosphate binders' and the iron increase observed in studies to date. s The data suggests cost savings of $320/patient/month in high-dose ESA users. Since our model assumes a more competitive Zerenex price, the cost savings could be even higher. As such, we believe that our peak market share of 15% for Zerenex in the US is conservative and justified. s Based on our assumption of a peak market share of 15% and pricing of $2.5K/year for Zerenex (for reference, Renagel and Fosrenol are priced at $3-5K/year), we built an NPV model for Zerenex (see p.5). The analysis suggests that Zerenex is worth $3.10/share, a slight discount to KERX's current valuation. Stock Price Performance Company Description 1 Year Price History for KERX Keryx Biopharmaceuticals a late-stage 6 biotechnology company with two drugs 5 in Phase III clinical studies. The 4 company's pipeline is focused on 3 oncology and nephrology. 2 1 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3 2011 2012 Created by BlueMatrix Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the Boris Peaker, Ph.D., CFA objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their 212 667-8564 investment decision. See "Important Disclosures and Certifications" section at the end of this report for Boris.Peaker@opco.com important disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest. See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks to Price Target" sections at the end of this report, where applicable. Oppenheimer & Co Inc. 300 Madison Avenue New York, NY 10017 Tel: 800-221-5588 Fax: 212-667-8229
  • 2. KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Pharmacoeconomic Data Supports Zerenex We believe that the posters presented at the American Society of Nephrology this past weekend confirm the pharmacoeconomic benefit of Zerenex. As a reminder, Zerenex (ferric citrate) is a phosphate binder that also improves iron stores by decreasing usage of ESA, the most expensive drug utilized in dialysis. The current reimbursement trend in dialysis capitates reimbursement on a per patient basis (adjusted for complications), which places pressure on the providers to minimize ESA usage while at the same time maintaining minimal Hb targets. We believe that a phosphate binder (an essential drug for the majority of dialysis patients) like Zerenex, which may reduce ESA usage and associated costs, may be economically attractive to dialysis providers. Zerenex Carries Relatively Low Clinical Trial Success Risk Over the last several months, there has been a debate in the investor community regarding the success or failure of perifosine in the ongoing Phase III (X-PECT) trial in refractory colorectal cancer. While we maintain our positive view on this study based on the strong data observed in the Phase II, we believe that Zerenex carries a lower clinical trial risk than perifosine. Specifically, Zerenex has shown a strong efficacy and an excellent safety profile in the studies to date, and phosphate binder study outcomes tend to be quite consistent with prior data. We assess a probability of approval for Zerenex of 80% in the US and 75% in Japan. Phase III Program Includes Short- and Long-Term Studies Based on the positive results from the Phase IIb program (Exhibits 1 and 2), Keryx has negotiated a Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) with the FDA for a registration program for Zerenex. Exhibit 1: Phase IIB Dose Ranging Efficacy Data For Zerenex Placebo 2g/day 4g/day 6g/day n = 16 n = 31 n = 32 n = 32 Change in serum phosphorus concentration (mg/dL) Baseline (day 0) 7.2 ± 1.4 7.2 ± 1.2 7.1 ± 1.3 7.3 ± 1.3 End of treatment (day 28) 7.2 ± 1.2 6.9 ± 2.2 6.0 ± 1.3 5.8 ± 1.8 Mean difference from placebo -0.02 -1.1 -1.5 p-value Not significant 0.06 0.0119 Mean difference from baseline -0.1 -0.3 -1.1 -0.5 p-value Not significant Not significant Not significant <0.01 Change in calcium×phosphorus (mg/dL) Baseline (day 0) 62.8 ± 13.9 62.9 ± 13.2 63.5 ± 10.7 65.8 ± 12.2 End of treatment (day 28) 63.2 ± 12.6 61.7 ± 21.3 55.4 ± 13.4 54.1 ± 17.7 Mean difference from placebo -0.9 -7.91 -11.4 p-value 0.895 0.1375 0.0378 Mean difference from baseline -0.3 -1.1 -8.1 -11.7 p-value Not significant Not significant Not significant <0.01 Source: Company report 2
  • 3. KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Exhibit 2: Phase IIB Dose Ranging Safety Data For Zerenex Adverse events Placebo 2g/day 4g/day 6g/day Mild 7 (43.8%) 13 (39.4%) 9 (26.5%) 14 (42.4%) Severe 1 (6.23%) 0 2 (5.9%) 1 (3.0%) Possibly related to drug 4 (25%) 7 (21.2%) 8 (23.5%) 7 (21.2%) Source: Company report The Phase III program includes a randomized, open-label, short-term study (28 days), which enrolled 146 patients. Subjects were randomized (1:1:1) to one of three doses of Zerenex (1, 6 or 8 grams/day) following a two-week washout period from their prior phosphate binders. The primary endpoint of the study is dose response in the change of serum phosphorus from baseline. The long-term study is also randomized and open-label, and includes a two-week washout period. However, the long-term trial will enroll twice the number of dialysis patients (~300) and assess safety over 52 weeks compared to the short-term study. Additionally, at the end of the 52-week period, patients will be randomized (1:1) to either continue on Zerenex or placebo. Final results for the short-term study were presented at the National Kidney Foundation meeting in late April 2011 (Exhibit 3). The data shows that patients were well randomized, with a baseline serum phosphorus level of 7.3-7.6 mg/dL across the three arms of the trial. The data also indicates that patients in the 8g/day arm reached the normal range for serum phosphorus (<5.5mg/dL), while the 6g/day arm came very close (5.7mg/dL). Both results were highly statistically significant (p<0.0001). We view these results as encouraging, considering the short duration of the study. Additionally, while the 6g/day (6 pills/day) dose did not reach the threshold of normal, we believe that results are likely to improve with additional duration on drug as was observed in the Taiwanese extension study. The investigators also noted a positive increase in ferritin (iron stores) and TSAT (the ratio of serum iron to total iron-binding capacity) in the 6g and 8g groups. Zerenex appeared to be safe and well tolerated with gastroenterological side effects that were generally mild. No severe adverse events were deemed to be drug-related by the Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB). Additionally, the lead investigator of the trial, Dr. Julia Lewis, further highlighted the attractive profile of Zerenex, which included excellent reduction of serum phosphorus, increase in bicarbonate, and modest increase in iron. Exhibit 3: Efficacy Results From Short Phase III Study of Zerenex 1g/day 6g/day 8g/day n = 50 n = 51 n = 45 Baseline Serum Phosphorus 7.3 7.6 7.5 (at end of washout), mg/dL Serum Phosphorus at Day 28, 7.4 5.7 5.3 mg/dL Change from Baseline to Day -1.9 -2.2 0.1 28, mg/dL (p<0.0001) (p<0.0001) % change from Baseline to 0.50% -25% -28.8% Day 28, mg/dL Source: Company report 3
  • 4. KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Phase III Studies Ongoing In US and Japan; EU Authorities Give Positive Opinion Keryx is currently conducting the long-term Phase III trial, which completed enrollment in September 2011. The study will add to the safety and efficacy dataset for Zerenex, and will further define Zerenex’s product profile. The final data is anticipated a year later in 4Q12, followed by an NDA filing and potential approval in 2H13. In parallel, Keryx’s Japanese partner, JT Torri (Torii Pharmaceuticals is the pharmaceutical subsidiary of Japan Tobacco), conducted their own placebo- controlled, double-blind Phase II study of Zerenex for 28-days following a three- week washout period in ~160 patients. Following the successful results from the Phase II study, a Japanese Phase III program was initiated in April 2011. Additionally, in May 2011 the European Medicines Agency (EMEA) gave a positive opinion on the Zerenex development program. This means that if the Phase III is successful, the combined data package is adequate to file for European approval of Zerenex without requiring additional studies. Zerenex Alone Supports Current Valuation We assess our value for Zerenex based on an NPV analysis (Exhibit 4). Our target market estimate is the end stage renal disease (ESRD) population in the US (~592,000 people in 2011), 80% of whom are estimated to require chronic phosphate binder therapy. We assumed a price point for Zerenex of $2,500/patient year, which we believe is a conservative estimate given the cost of ~$5K/year for Renagel (market leader). Our pricing assumption is based on the expectation of a generic Renagel launched in the US following patent expiry in 2014. Our market share assumption commences with 1% of the US market in 2013 (partial year) and grows to 15% in five years. We believe that the 15% peak market share is conservative and may be heavily influenced by the reimbursement rules that may come into effect in 2014. Our market share estimate is predicated on Renagel remaining the dominant phosphate binder, with Zerenex prescribed to patients who do not adequately respond to Renagel or other phosphate binders. Combining these estimates we arrive at US sales of ~$300M+ for Zerenex. For expenses we estimate $8M in milestones to Panion ($3M upon successful outcome in the long-term in Phase III study and $5M upon approval) and a 5% royalty on US sales. We estimate costs of goods sold at 9% of revenue and sales & marketing costs reaching 25% of US sales. We extend our model through 2021 based on the expiry of the composition of matter patent in 2017 and assumed 4- year patent extension based on Hatch-Waxman legislation. We further adjust the cash flow in each year by the probability of occurrence, with 100% probability to the costs in the years through 2013 and 80% of success in reaching market. We believe that the risk of gaining FDA approval for Zerenex is lower than for an average drug based on the encouraging results from the clinical trials conducted to date and the well-understood mechanism of action. In our view the greatest uncertainties in the commercial value of Zerenex in the US are associated with its product profile and reimbursement environment. For the Japanese market we estimated that Keryx could receive $10M upon successful completion of clinical studies and another $20M upon approval in 2014. For the market size we estimated total Japanese sales to be ~1/3 of the US, and for Keryx to receive a 15% royalty rate on total Japanese sales. Further, we assigned a 75% probability of success to the approval of Zerenex in Japan. 4
  • 5. KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Exhibit 4: Zerenex Commercial Model in US and Japan Zerenex US 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 ESRD patients in the US (000s) 592 615 640 666 692 720 749 779 810 842 876 Patients on phosphate binders (000s) 473 492 512 532 554 576 599 623 648 674 701 Price ($/patient year) 2500 2575 2652 2732 2814 2898 2985 3075 3167 Market Share 1% 4% 6% 8% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% US Revenue ($M) 18 55 88 126 253 271 290 311 333 Expenses Royalty to Panion ($M) 1 3 4 6 13 14 15 16 17 Milestones to Panion ($M) 3 5 COGS ($M) 0 2 5 8 11 23 24 26 28 30 Sales & Marketing ($M) 2 2 10 20 26 38 63 68 73 78 83 R&D + G&A ($M) 7 9 12 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Net pre-tax cashflow ($M) (9) (14) (12) 22 47 68 152 163 175 188 201 Probability of cashflow 100% 100% 100% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% Risk-adjusted pre-tax cashflow ($M) (9) (14) (12) 18 38 55 122 131 140 150 161 Zerenex in Japan Japan Milestones ($M) 10 20 Japanese Sales (by JT Torii in $M) 6 18 29 42 84 90 97 104 Royalty to Keryx on Japan sales ($M) 1 3 4 6 13 14 15 16 Total Japanese cashflows to Keryx ($M) 10 27 21 34 48 97 104 111 119 Probability of cashflow 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% Risk-adjusted pre-tax cashflows ($M) 8 20 16 25 36 73 78 83 89 Total risk-adjusted pre-tax Zerenex cashflows ($M) (9) (14) (4) 38 54 80 158 203 218 233 250 Pre-Tax Risk Adjusted Cashflow Zerenex ($MM) (9) (14) (4) 38 54 80 158 203 218 233 250 Perifosine in colorectal ($M) Perifosine in multiple myeloma ($M) Total Risk-Adjusted Pre-tax cashflows (9) (14) (4) 38 54 80 158 203 218 233 250 Taxes 0 0 0 13 19 28 55 71 76 82 88 After-tax cashflow (9) (14) (4) 25 35 52 103 132 142 152 163 Discount rate 15% NPV ($M) 270 NPV per share $3.10 Source: Oppenheimer & Co. estimates. Potential Upsides to Our Zerenex Model Penetration of Pre-Dialysis Market Although phosphate binders are primarily utilized in dialysis patients, there is suggestive medical evidence that patients in late stage kidney failure who are not yet on dialysis may benefit from phosphate binders as well. There are no phosphate binders approved for pre-dialysis in the US, but Renvela and Fosrenol are approved for pre-dialysis in some European countries. We believe that a potential off-label use of Zerenex in pre-dialysis and/or formal approval in pre- dialysis may significantly expand its potential market. In our opinion, additional studies are likely necessary for label expansion in pre-dialysis. Pricing We assumed a price of $2,500 per patient per year to remain competitive with the likely launch of generic Renagel in 2014 or 2015. However, if Zerenex shows significant improvements outside of serum phosphorus reduction, such as reduced need for iron, ESAs, and/or improved metabolic acidosis profile, a price point of $3,000-5,000 per year may be justifiable. Market Penetration Similar to the pricing upside described above, we believe that if Zerenex shows significant benefits outside of serum phosphorus and pill burden reduction, it may 5
  • 6. KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc. potentially gain much higher than the 15% peak market share that we currently estimate. Patent Extension Our model assumes the expiry of Zerenex’s exclusivity in 2021. However, the patent estate includes a manufacturing patent extending through 2023. An extension of Zerenex’s exclusivity could further increase its commercial value. Risks To Our Zerenex Thesis And NPV Model There are multiple risks and uncertainties associated with investment in development-stage biotechnology companies. We recommend that investors review Keryx’s regulatory filings for the detailed summary of investment risks, and below we highlight the top three risks that relate to our Zerenex thesis and NPV model. Dialysis Reimbursement Risk The reimbursement regulations for dialysis are evolving rapidly, from an inclusion of injectable drugs into a fixed reimbursement bundle in 2011, to the likely addition of oral drugs, like phosphate binders, to the fixed payment bundle in 2014. It is possible that the combination of these two variables (low incremental bundle increase for the addition of oral drugs and low penalty for high serum phosphorus) may jeopardize Zerenex’s value proposition in the context of generic Renagel. Competitive Risk There are multiple approved phosphate binders, as well as competing products in development. The patent for Renagel, the leading phosphate binder in the US, expires in 2014. The introduction of generic Renagel, in addition to potential approval of new phosphate binders, may negatively impact Zerenex’s commercial potential. Clinical Trial Risk There is a risk that the current ongoing Phase III trial of Zerenex may show an unexpected safety finding, which could negatively impact the approvability of the drug and/or its label if approved. Stock prices of other companies mentioned in this report (as of 11/12/2011): Davita Inc. (DVA-NYSE, $74.81, Not Rated) 6
  • 7. KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Exhibit 5: Keryx Income Statement Historical and Projected Income Statement Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 FY09A FY10A FY11E FY12E FY13E FY Ending Dec 31st 1QA 2QA 3QA 4QA 1QA 2QA 3QA 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE REVENUE Perifosine Revenue 5,000 25,000 30,000 321,484 Zerenex Revenue 17,918 License revenue 21,616 5,000 5,000 8,000 8,000 10,000 Service revenue Other revenue 3,575 Total Revenue 25,191 5,000 5,000 5,000 33,000 38,000 349,401 OPERATING EXPENSES Cost of Good Sold 250 1,250 1,500 17,687 Non-cash research and development 1,233 242 434 322 238 1,236 259 205 152 200 816 400 400 450 450 1,700 2,700 Operating research and development 7,372 2,554 3,129 3,901 4,144 13,728 4,618 6,295 8,620 8,500 28,033 6,500 5,000 4,000 4,000 19,500 14,000 Non-cash general and administrative 1,867 407 261 291 278 1,237 314 314 320 300 1,248 350 350 350 350 1,400 1,800 Operating general and administrative 4,904 898 1,356 1,419 1,341 5,014 1,284 1,404 1,263 1,200 5,151 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,600 6,100 7,500 Sales & Marketing 9,000 12,000 14,000 15,000 50,000 104,445 Total Operating Expenses 15,376 4,101 5,180 5,933 6,001 21,215 6,475 8,218 10,355 10,200 35,248 17,650 19,250 20,400 21,400 78,700 130,445 Operating (loss) income 9,815 (4,101) (5,180) (5,933) (6,001) (21,215) (6,475) (3,218) (10,355) (10,200) (30,248) (17,650) (19,250) (15,400) 11,600 (40,700) 218,956 Interest and other income, net 667 86 26 85 567 764 70 122 108 100 400 120 120 120 120 480 600 (Loss) income before income taxes 10,482 (4,015) (5,154) (5,848) (5,434) (20,451) (6,405) (3,096) (10,247) (10,100) (29,848) (17,530) (19,130) (15,280) 11,720 (40,220) 219,556 Income taxes 120 Gain from discontinued operations 120 Net (loss) income 10,482 (4,015) (5,154) (5,848) (5,314) (20,331) (6,405) (3,096) (10,247) (10,100) (29,848) (17,530) (19,130) (15,280) 11,720 (40,220) 219,556 Basic and diluted income (loss) per share 0.21 (0.07) (0.09) (0.10) (0.09) (0.34) (0.10) (0.05) (0.15) (0.14) (0.45) (0.25) (0.26) (0.20) 0.13 (0.53) 2.49 Weighted average basic and diluted shares outstanding 50,499 56,881 58,427 59,325 59,425 58,988 61,550 66,287 70,484 70,643 67,042 71,293 74,493 77,693 87,782 75,468 88,282 Source: Oppenheimer & Co. estimates. 7
  • 8. KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Investment Thesis Keryx is a development-stage biotechnology company with a therapeutic focus in oncology and renal disease. Keryx has two drugs, perifosine and Zerenex, in Phase III studies conducted under Special Protocol Assessments from the FDA. Perifosine also received a Fast Track designation, which suggests that it addresses a life-threatening condition and a significant unmet medical need, and allows for a six-month FDA review cycle. We believe that the company is well positioned to capitalize on the potential commercial value of its assets in the US and ex-US. Price Target Calculation We derive our price target for Keryx shares based on an NPV calculation (see Exhibit 4). We estimate the commercial value for perifosine in colorectal cancer and multiple myeloma as well as Zerenex in hyperphosphatemia, and combine these assessments in our NPV calculation. Key Risks to Price Target Risks to our price target include clinical trial risk, reimbursement risk and competitive risks. Note: We view KERX, as a stock trading under $5, as speculative and appropriate for risk-tolerant investors. Important Disclosures and Certifications Analyst Certification - The author certifies that this research report accurately states his/her personal views about the subject securities, which are reflected in the ratings as well as in the substance of this report.The author certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. Potential Conflicts of Interest: Equity research analysts employed by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. are compensated from revenues generated by the firm including the Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Investment Banking Department. Research analysts do not receive compensation based upon revenues from specific investment banking transactions. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. generally prohibits any research analyst and any member of his or her household from executing trades in the securities of a company that such research analyst covers. Additionally, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. generally prohibits any research analyst from serving as an officer, director or advisory board member of a company that such analyst covers. In addition to 1% ownership positions in covered companies that are required to be specifically disclosed in this report, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. may have a long position of less than 1% or a short position or deal as principal in the securities discussed herein, related securities or in options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. Recipients of this report are advised that any or all of the foregoing arrangements, as well as more specific disclosures set forth below, may at times give rise to potential conflicts of interest. 8
  • 9. KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Rating and Price Target History for: KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc. (KERX) as of 11-14-2011 05/16/11 06/07/11 I:O:$7 O:$8 8 6 4 2 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 Created by BlueMatrix All price targets displayed in the chart above are for a 12- to- 18-month period. Prior to March 30, 2004, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. used 6-, 12-, 12- to 18-, and 12- to 24-month price targets and ranges. For more information about target price histories, please write to Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., 300 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10017, Attention: Equity Research Department, Business Manager. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Rating System as of January 14th, 2008: Outperform(O) - Stock expected to outperform the S&P 500 within the next 12-18 months. Perform (P) - Stock expected to perform in line with the S&P 500 within the next 12-18 months. Underperform (U) - Stock expected to underperform the S&P 500 within the next 12-18 months. Not Rated (NR) - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. does not maintain coverage of the stock or is restricted from doing so due to a potential conflict of interest. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Rating System prior to January 14th, 2008: Buy - anticipates appreciation of 10% or more within the next 12 months, and/or a total return of 10% including dividend payments, and/or the ability of the shares to perform better than the leading stock market averages or stocks within its particular industry sector. Neutral - anticipates that the shares will trade at or near their current price and generally in line with the leading market averages due to a perceived absence of strong dynamics that would cause volatility either to the upside or downside, and/or will perform less well than higher rated companies within its peer group. Our readers should be aware that when a rating change occurs to Neutral from Buy, aggressive trading accounts might decide to liquidate their positions to employ the funds elsewhere. Sell - anticipates that the shares will depreciate 10% or more in price within the next 12 months, due to fundamental weakness perceived in the company or for valuation reasons, or are expected to perform significantly worse than equities within the peer group. 9
  • 10. KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc. Distribution of Ratings/IB Services Firmwide IB Serv/Past 12 Mos. Rating Count Percent Count Percent OUTPERFORM [O] 328 55.30 145 44.21 PERFORM [P] 257 43.30 84 32.68 UNDERPERFORM [U] 8 1.30 3 37.50 Although the investment recommendations within the three-tiered, relative stock rating system utilized by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. do not correlate to buy, hold and sell recommendations, for the purposes of complying with FINRA rules, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has assigned buy ratings to securities rated Outperform, hold ratings to securities rated Perform, and sell ratings to securities rated Underperform. Company Specific Disclosures In the past 12 months Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has provided investment banking services for KERX. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months from KERX. In the past 12 months Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for KERX. In the past 12 months Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has received compensation for investment banking services from KERX. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. makes a market in the securities of KERX. Additional Information Available Please log on to http://www.opco.com or write to Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., 300 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10017, Attention: Equity Research Department, Business Manager. Other Disclosures This report is issued and approved for distribution by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc transacts Business on all Principal Exchanges and Member SIPC. This report is provided, for informational purposes only, to institutional and retail investor clients of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. The securities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all types of investors. This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any particular client of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Recipients should consider this report as only a single factor in making an investment decision and should not rely solely on investment recommendations contained herein, if any, as a substitution for the exercise of independent judgment of the merits and risks of investments. The analyst writing the report is not a person or company with actual, implied or apparent authority to act on behalf of any issuer mentioned in the report. Before making an investment decision with respect to any security recommended in this report, the recipient should consider whether such recommendation is appropriate given the recipient's particular investment needs, 10
  • 11. KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc. objectives and financial circumstances. We recommend that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourage investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor.Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. will not treat non-client recipients as its clients solely by virtue of their receiving this report.Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance of any security mentioned in this report. The price of the securities mentioned in this report and the income they produce may fluctuate and/or be adversely affected by exchange rates, and investors may realize losses on investments in such securities, including the loss of investment principal. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of information contained in this report, except to the extent that liability may arise under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Oppenheimer & Co. Inc.All information, opinions and statistical data contained in this report were obtained or derived from public sources believed to be reliable, but Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. does not represent that any such information, opinion or statistical data is accurate or complete (with the exception of information contained in the Important Disclosures section of this report provided by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. or individual research analysts), and they should not be relied upon as such. All estimates, opinions and recommendations expressed herein constitute judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice.Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice. Since the levels and bases of taxation can change, any reference in this report to the impact of taxation should not be construed as offering tax advice on the tax consequences of investments. As with any investment having potential tax implications, clients should consult with their own independent tax adviser.This report may provide addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, Internet web sites. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has not reviewed the linked Internet web site of any third party and takes no responsibility for the contents thereof. Each such address or hyperlink is provided solely for the recipient's convenience and information, and the content of linked third party web sites is not in any way incorporated into this document. Recipients who choose to access such third-party web sites or follow such hyperlinks do so at their own risk. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed without the written consent of Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Copyright © Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. 2011. 11