9654467111 Low Rate Call Girls In Tughlakabad, Delhi NCR
Oppenheimer Report Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc.
1. EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
November 15, 2011 HEALTHCARE/EMERGING BIOTECHNOLOGY
Stock Rating:
OUTPERFORM
KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.
12-18 mo. Price Target $8.00 Zerenex Alone Supports Current Valuation; Perifosine
KERX - NASDAQ $2.82 Carries Significant Upside
3-5 Yr. EPS Gr. Rate NA SUMMARY
52-Wk Range $5.91-$2.58 This weekend Keryx presented a poster supporting a pharmacoeconomic argument
Shares Outstanding 71.0M behind using Zerenex in high-dose ESA patients. In our prior valuation of the
Float 40.2M company, we combined the models for Zerenex and perifosine and derived a single
Market Capitalization $200.3M NPV. Given the stock's recent weakness and the concerns raised about perifosine
Avg. Daily Trading Volume 1,501,492 (despite a positive DSMC meeting), we looked at the value of Zerenex as a
stand-alone asset, which we believe is worth ~$3/share. While investors are
Dividend/Div Yield NA/NM
focused on perifosine Phase III results in colorectal cancer, anticipated in 1Q12, we
Fiscal Year Ends Dec believe that the negative outcome is largely factored in at the current valuation, and
Book Value $0.28 we believe that Zerenex will serve as a valuation floor for the perifosine bear thesis.
2007E ROE NA We reiterate our Outperform rating and $8 target.
LT Debt NA KEY POINTS
Preferred NA
s We would like to be crystal clear that our view on perifosine has not changed. In
Common Equity $23M
our opinion, the overenrollment in the Phase III study validates the unmet
Convertible Available No
medical need in refractory colorectal cancer, and the positive DSMC review last
EPS Diluted Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Mult. month confirms perifosine's safety.
2010A (0.07) (0.09) (0.10) (0.09) (0.34) NM s The pharmacoeconomic analysis of Zerenex was performed by DaVita, the
2011E (0.10)A (0.05)A (0.15)A (0.14) (0.45) NM second-largest dialysis provider in the US, with ~1/3 of the overall market. The
2012E (0.25) (0.26) (0.20) 0.13 (0.53) NM analysis assumed Zerenex pricing on par with current phosphate binders' and
the iron increase observed in studies to date.
s The data suggests cost savings of $320/patient/month in high-dose ESA users.
Since our model assumes a more competitive Zerenex price, the cost savings
could be even higher. As such, we believe that our peak market share of 15%
for Zerenex in the US is conservative and justified.
s Based on our assumption of a peak market share of 15% and pricing of
$2.5K/year for Zerenex (for reference, Renagel and Fosrenol are priced at
$3-5K/year), we built an NPV model for Zerenex (see p.5). The analysis
suggests that Zerenex is worth $3.10/share, a slight discount to KERX's current
valuation.
Stock Price Performance Company Description
1 Year Price History for KERX
Keryx Biopharmaceuticals a late-stage
6
biotechnology company with two drugs
5
in Phase III clinical studies. The
4 company's pipeline is focused on
3 oncology and nephrology.
2
1
Q3 Q1 Q2 Q3
2011 2012
Created by BlueMatrix
Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As
a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the
Boris Peaker, Ph.D., CFA objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
212 667-8564 investment decision. See "Important Disclosures and Certifications" section at the end of this report for
Boris.Peaker@opco.com important disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest. See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risks
to Price Target" sections at the end of this report, where applicable.
Oppenheimer & Co Inc. 300 Madison Avenue New York, NY 10017 Tel: 800-221-5588 Fax: 212-667-8229
2. KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.
Pharmacoeconomic Data Supports Zerenex
We believe that the posters presented at the American Society of Nephrology this
past weekend confirm the pharmacoeconomic benefit of Zerenex. As a reminder,
Zerenex (ferric citrate) is a phosphate binder that also improves iron stores by
decreasing usage of ESA, the most expensive drug utilized in dialysis. The current
reimbursement trend in dialysis capitates reimbursement on a per patient basis
(adjusted for complications), which places pressure on the providers to minimize
ESA usage while at the same time maintaining minimal Hb targets. We believe that
a phosphate binder (an essential drug for the majority of dialysis patients) like
Zerenex, which may reduce ESA usage and associated costs, may be
economically attractive to dialysis providers.
Zerenex Carries Relatively Low Clinical Trial Success Risk
Over the last several months, there has been a debate in the investor community
regarding the success or failure of perifosine in the ongoing Phase III (X-PECT)
trial in refractory colorectal cancer. While we maintain our positive view on this
study based on the strong data observed in the Phase II, we believe that Zerenex
carries a lower clinical trial risk than perifosine. Specifically, Zerenex has shown a
strong efficacy and an excellent safety profile in the studies to date, and phosphate
binder study outcomes tend to be quite consistent with prior data. We assess a
probability of approval for Zerenex of 80% in the US and 75% in Japan.
Phase III Program Includes Short- and Long-Term Studies
Based on the positive results from the Phase IIb program (Exhibits 1 and 2), Keryx
has negotiated a Special Protocol Assessment (SPA) with the FDA for a
registration program for Zerenex.
Exhibit 1: Phase IIB Dose Ranging Efficacy Data For Zerenex
Placebo 2g/day 4g/day 6g/day
n = 16 n = 31 n = 32 n = 32
Change in serum phosphorus concentration (mg/dL)
Baseline (day 0) 7.2 ± 1.4 7.2 ± 1.2 7.1 ± 1.3 7.3 ± 1.3
End of treatment (day 28) 7.2 ± 1.2 6.9 ± 2.2 6.0 ± 1.3 5.8 ± 1.8
Mean difference from placebo -0.02 -1.1 -1.5
p-value Not significant 0.06 0.0119
Mean difference from baseline -0.1 -0.3 -1.1 -0.5
p-value Not significant Not significant Not significant <0.01
Change in calcium×phosphorus (mg/dL)
Baseline (day 0) 62.8 ± 13.9 62.9 ± 13.2 63.5 ± 10.7 65.8 ± 12.2
End of treatment (day 28) 63.2 ± 12.6 61.7 ± 21.3 55.4 ± 13.4 54.1 ± 17.7
Mean difference from placebo -0.9 -7.91 -11.4
p-value 0.895 0.1375 0.0378
Mean difference from baseline -0.3 -1.1 -8.1 -11.7
p-value Not significant Not significant Not significant <0.01
Source: Company report
2
3. KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.
Exhibit 2: Phase IIB Dose Ranging Safety Data For Zerenex
Adverse events Placebo 2g/day 4g/day 6g/day
Mild 7 (43.8%) 13 (39.4%) 9 (26.5%) 14 (42.4%)
Severe 1 (6.23%) 0 2 (5.9%) 1 (3.0%)
Possibly related to drug 4 (25%) 7 (21.2%) 8 (23.5%) 7 (21.2%)
Source: Company report
The Phase III program includes a randomized, open-label, short-term study (28
days), which enrolled 146 patients. Subjects were randomized (1:1:1) to one of
three doses of Zerenex (1, 6 or 8 grams/day) following a two-week washout period
from their prior phosphate binders. The primary endpoint of the study is dose
response in the change of serum phosphorus from baseline. The long-term study is
also randomized and open-label, and includes a two-week washout period.
However, the long-term trial will enroll twice the number of dialysis patients (~300)
and assess safety over 52 weeks compared to the short-term study. Additionally, at
the end of the 52-week period, patients will be randomized (1:1) to either continue
on Zerenex or placebo.
Final results for the short-term study were presented at the National Kidney
Foundation meeting in late April 2011 (Exhibit 3). The data shows that patients
were well randomized, with a baseline serum phosphorus level of 7.3-7.6 mg/dL
across the three arms of the trial. The data also indicates that patients in the
8g/day arm reached the normal range for serum phosphorus (<5.5mg/dL), while
the 6g/day arm came very close (5.7mg/dL). Both results were highly statistically
significant (p<0.0001). We view these results as encouraging, considering the
short duration of the study. Additionally, while the 6g/day (6 pills/day) dose did not
reach the threshold of normal, we believe that results are likely to improve with
additional duration on drug as was observed in the Taiwanese extension study.
The investigators also noted a positive increase in ferritin (iron stores) and TSAT
(the ratio of serum iron to total iron-binding capacity) in the 6g and 8g groups.
Zerenex appeared to be safe and well tolerated with gastroenterological side
effects that were generally mild. No severe adverse events were deemed to be
drug-related by the Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB). Additionally, the lead
investigator of the trial, Dr. Julia Lewis, further highlighted the attractive profile of
Zerenex, which included excellent reduction of serum phosphorus, increase in
bicarbonate, and modest increase in iron.
Exhibit 3: Efficacy Results From Short Phase III Study of
Zerenex
1g/day 6g/day 8g/day
n = 50 n = 51 n = 45
Baseline Serum Phosphorus
7.3 7.6 7.5
(at end of washout), mg/dL
Serum Phosphorus at Day 28,
7.4 5.7 5.3
mg/dL
Change from Baseline to Day -1.9 -2.2
0.1
28, mg/dL (p<0.0001) (p<0.0001)
% change from Baseline to
0.50% -25% -28.8%
Day 28, mg/dL
Source: Company report
3
4. KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.
Phase III Studies Ongoing In US and Japan; EU Authorities Give
Positive Opinion
Keryx is currently conducting the long-term Phase III trial, which completed
enrollment in September 2011. The study will add to the safety and efficacy
dataset for Zerenex, and will further define Zerenex’s product profile. The final data
is anticipated a year later in 4Q12, followed by an NDA filing and potential approval
in 2H13. In parallel, Keryx’s Japanese partner, JT Torri (Torii Pharmaceuticals is
the pharmaceutical subsidiary of Japan Tobacco), conducted their own placebo-
controlled, double-blind Phase II study of Zerenex for 28-days following a three-
week washout period in ~160 patients. Following the successful results from the
Phase II study, a Japanese Phase III program was initiated in April 2011.
Additionally, in May 2011 the European Medicines Agency (EMEA) gave a positive
opinion on the Zerenex development program. This means that if the Phase III is
successful, the combined data package is adequate to file for European approval
of Zerenex without requiring additional studies.
Zerenex Alone Supports Current Valuation
We assess our value for Zerenex based on an NPV analysis (Exhibit 4). Our target
market estimate is the end stage renal disease (ESRD) population in the US
(~592,000 people in 2011), 80% of whom are estimated to require chronic
phosphate binder therapy. We assumed a price point for Zerenex of $2,500/patient
year, which we believe is a conservative estimate given the cost of ~$5K/year for
Renagel (market leader). Our pricing assumption is based on the expectation of a
generic Renagel launched in the US following patent expiry in 2014. Our market
share assumption commences with 1% of the US market in 2013 (partial year) and
grows to 15% in five years. We believe that the 15% peak market share is
conservative and may be heavily influenced by the reimbursement rules that may
come into effect in 2014. Our market share estimate is predicated on Renagel
remaining the dominant phosphate binder, with Zerenex prescribed to patients who
do not adequately respond to Renagel or other phosphate binders. Combining
these estimates we arrive at US sales of ~$300M+ for Zerenex.
For expenses we estimate $8M in milestones to Panion ($3M upon successful
outcome in the long-term in Phase III study and $5M upon approval) and a 5%
royalty on US sales. We estimate costs of goods sold at 9% of revenue and sales
& marketing costs reaching 25% of US sales. We extend our model through 2021
based on the expiry of the composition of matter patent in 2017 and assumed 4-
year patent extension based on Hatch-Waxman legislation. We further adjust the
cash flow in each year by the probability of occurrence, with 100% probability to
the costs in the years through 2013 and 80% of success in reaching market. We
believe that the risk of gaining FDA approval for Zerenex is lower than for an
average drug based on the encouraging results from the clinical trials conducted to
date and the well-understood mechanism of action. In our view the greatest
uncertainties in the commercial value of Zerenex in the US are associated with its
product profile and reimbursement environment.
For the Japanese market we estimated that Keryx could receive $10M upon
successful completion of clinical studies and another $20M upon approval in 2014.
For the market size we estimated total Japanese sales to be ~1/3 of the US, and
for Keryx to receive a 15% royalty rate on total Japanese sales. Further, we
assigned a 75% probability of success to the approval of Zerenex in Japan.
4
5. KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.
Exhibit 4: Zerenex Commercial Model in US and Japan
Zerenex US 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
ESRD patients in the US (000s) 592 615 640 666 692 720 749 779 810 842 876
Patients on phosphate binders (000s) 473 492 512 532 554 576 599 623 648 674 701
Price ($/patient year) 2500 2575 2652 2732 2814 2898 2985 3075 3167
Market Share 1% 4% 6% 8% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
US Revenue ($M) 18 55 88 126 253 271 290 311 333
Expenses
Royalty to Panion ($M) 1 3 4 6 13 14 15 16 17
Milestones to Panion ($M) 3 5
COGS ($M) 0 2 5 8 11 23 24 26 28 30
Sales & Marketing ($M) 2 2 10 20 26 38 63 68 73 78 83
R&D + G&A ($M) 7 9 12 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Net pre-tax cashflow ($M) (9) (14) (12) 22 47 68 152 163 175 188 201
Probability of cashflow 100% 100% 100% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
Risk-adjusted pre-tax cashflow ($M) (9) (14) (12) 18 38 55 122 131 140 150 161
Zerenex in Japan
Japan Milestones ($M) 10 20
Japanese Sales (by JT Torii in $M) 6 18 29 42 84 90 97 104
Royalty to Keryx on Japan sales ($M) 1 3 4 6 13 14 15 16
Total Japanese cashflows to Keryx ($M) 10 27 21 34 48 97 104 111 119
Probability of cashflow 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75%
Risk-adjusted pre-tax cashflows ($M) 8 20 16 25 36 73 78 83 89
Total risk-adjusted pre-tax Zerenex cashflows ($M) (9) (14) (4) 38 54 80 158 203 218 233 250
Pre-Tax Risk Adjusted Cashflow
Zerenex ($MM) (9) (14) (4) 38 54 80 158 203 218 233 250
Perifosine in colorectal ($M)
Perifosine in multiple myeloma ($M)
Total Risk-Adjusted Pre-tax cashflows (9) (14) (4) 38 54 80 158 203 218 233 250
Taxes 0 0 0 13 19 28 55 71 76 82 88
After-tax cashflow (9) (14) (4) 25 35 52 103 132 142 152 163
Discount rate 15%
NPV ($M) 270
NPV per share $3.10
Source: Oppenheimer & Co. estimates.
Potential Upsides to Our Zerenex Model
Penetration of Pre-Dialysis Market
Although phosphate binders are primarily utilized in dialysis patients, there is
suggestive medical evidence that patients in late stage kidney failure who are not
yet on dialysis may benefit from phosphate binders as well. There are no
phosphate binders approved for pre-dialysis in the US, but Renvela and Fosrenol
are approved for pre-dialysis in some European countries. We believe that a
potential off-label use of Zerenex in pre-dialysis and/or formal approval in pre-
dialysis may significantly expand its potential market. In our opinion, additional
studies are likely necessary for label expansion in pre-dialysis.
Pricing
We assumed a price of $2,500 per patient per year to remain competitive with the
likely launch of generic Renagel in 2014 or 2015. However, if Zerenex shows
significant improvements outside of serum phosphorus reduction, such as reduced
need for iron, ESAs, and/or improved metabolic acidosis profile, a price point of
$3,000-5,000 per year may be justifiable.
Market Penetration
Similar to the pricing upside described above, we believe that if Zerenex shows
significant benefits outside of serum phosphorus and pill burden reduction, it may
5
6. KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.
potentially gain much higher than the 15% peak market share that we currently
estimate.
Patent Extension
Our model assumes the expiry of Zerenex’s exclusivity in 2021. However, the
patent estate includes a manufacturing patent extending through 2023. An
extension of Zerenex’s exclusivity could further increase its commercial value.
Risks To Our Zerenex Thesis And NPV Model
There are multiple risks and uncertainties associated with investment in
development-stage biotechnology companies. We recommend that investors
review Keryx’s regulatory filings for the detailed summary of investment risks, and
below we highlight the top three risks that relate to our Zerenex thesis and NPV
model.
Dialysis Reimbursement Risk
The reimbursement regulations for dialysis are evolving rapidly, from an inclusion
of injectable drugs into a fixed reimbursement bundle in 2011, to the likely addition
of oral drugs, like phosphate binders, to the fixed payment bundle in 2014. It is
possible that the combination of these two variables (low incremental bundle
increase for the addition of oral drugs and low penalty for high serum phosphorus)
may jeopardize Zerenex’s value proposition in the context of generic Renagel.
Competitive Risk
There are multiple approved phosphate binders, as well as competing products in
development. The patent for Renagel, the leading phosphate binder in the US,
expires in 2014. The introduction of generic Renagel, in addition to potential
approval of new phosphate binders, may negatively impact Zerenex’s commercial
potential.
Clinical Trial Risk
There is a risk that the current ongoing Phase III trial of Zerenex may show an
unexpected safety finding, which could negatively impact the approvability of the
drug and/or its label if approved.
Stock prices of other companies mentioned in this report (as of 11/12/2011):
Davita Inc. (DVA-NYSE, $74.81, Not Rated)
6
7. KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.
Exhibit 5: Keryx Income Statement
Historical and Projected Income Statement Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12
FY09A FY10A FY11E FY12E FY13E
FY Ending Dec 31st 1QA 2QA 3QA 4QA 1QA 2QA 3QA 4QE 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE
REVENUE
Perifosine Revenue 5,000 25,000 30,000 321,484
Zerenex Revenue 17,918
License revenue 21,616 5,000 5,000 8,000 8,000 10,000
Service revenue
Other revenue 3,575
Total Revenue 25,191 5,000 5,000 5,000 33,000 38,000 349,401
OPERATING EXPENSES
Cost of Good Sold 250 1,250 1,500 17,687
Non-cash research and development 1,233 242 434 322 238 1,236 259 205 152 200 816 400 400 450 450 1,700 2,700
Operating research and development 7,372 2,554 3,129 3,901 4,144 13,728 4,618 6,295 8,620 8,500 28,033 6,500 5,000 4,000 4,000 19,500 14,000
Non-cash general and administrative 1,867 407 261 291 278 1,237 314 314 320 300 1,248 350 350 350 350 1,400 1,800
Operating general and administrative 4,904 898 1,356 1,419 1,341 5,014 1,284 1,404 1,263 1,200 5,151 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,600 6,100 7,500
Sales & Marketing 9,000 12,000 14,000 15,000 50,000 104,445
Total Operating Expenses 15,376 4,101 5,180 5,933 6,001 21,215 6,475 8,218 10,355 10,200 35,248 17,650 19,250 20,400 21,400 78,700 130,445
Operating (loss) income 9,815 (4,101) (5,180) (5,933) (6,001) (21,215) (6,475) (3,218) (10,355) (10,200) (30,248) (17,650) (19,250) (15,400) 11,600 (40,700) 218,956
Interest and other income, net 667 86 26 85 567 764 70 122 108 100 400 120 120 120 120 480 600
(Loss) income before income taxes 10,482 (4,015) (5,154) (5,848) (5,434) (20,451) (6,405) (3,096) (10,247) (10,100) (29,848) (17,530) (19,130) (15,280) 11,720 (40,220) 219,556
Income taxes 120
Gain from discontinued operations 120
Net (loss) income 10,482 (4,015) (5,154) (5,848) (5,314) (20,331) (6,405) (3,096) (10,247) (10,100) (29,848) (17,530) (19,130) (15,280) 11,720 (40,220) 219,556
Basic and diluted income (loss) per share 0.21 (0.07) (0.09) (0.10) (0.09) (0.34) (0.10) (0.05) (0.15) (0.14) (0.45) (0.25) (0.26) (0.20) 0.13 (0.53) 2.49
Weighted average basic and diluted shares outstanding 50,499 56,881 58,427 59,325 59,425 58,988 61,550 66,287 70,484 70,643 67,042 71,293 74,493 77,693 87,782 75,468 88,282
Source: Oppenheimer & Co. estimates.
7
8. KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.
Investment Thesis
Keryx is a development-stage biotechnology company with a therapeutic focus in oncology and renal disease. Keryx has
two drugs, perifosine and Zerenex, in Phase III studies conducted under Special Protocol Assessments from the FDA.
Perifosine also received a Fast Track designation, which suggests that it addresses a life-threatening condition and a
significant unmet medical need, and allows for a six-month FDA review cycle. We believe that the company is well
positioned to capitalize on the potential commercial value of its assets in the US and ex-US.
Price Target Calculation
We derive our price target for Keryx shares based on an NPV calculation (see Exhibit 4). We estimate the commercial value for
perifosine in colorectal cancer and multiple myeloma as well as Zerenex in hyperphosphatemia, and combine these assessments in our
NPV calculation.
Key Risks to Price Target
Risks to our price target include clinical trial risk, reimbursement risk and competitive risks.
Note: We view KERX, as a stock trading under $5, as speculative and appropriate for risk-tolerant investors.
Important Disclosures and Certifications
Analyst Certification - The author certifies that this research report accurately states his/her personal views about the
subject securities, which are reflected in the ratings as well as in the substance of this report.The author certifies that no
part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views
contained in this research report.
Potential Conflicts of Interest:
Equity research analysts employed by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. are compensated from revenues generated by the firm
including the Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Investment Banking Department. Research analysts do not receive compensation
based upon revenues from specific investment banking transactions. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. generally prohibits any
research analyst and any member of his or her household from executing trades in the securities of a company that such
research analyst covers. Additionally, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. generally prohibits any research analyst from serving as an
officer, director or advisory board member of a company that such analyst covers. In addition to 1% ownership positions in
covered companies that are required to be specifically disclosed in this report, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. may have a long
position of less than 1% or a short position or deal as principal in the securities discussed herein, related securities or in
options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. Recipients of this report are advised that any or all of the
foregoing arrangements, as well as more specific disclosures set forth below, may at times give rise to potential conflicts of
interest.
8
9. KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.
Rating and Price Target History for: KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc. (KERX) as of 11-14-2011
05/16/11 06/07/11
I:O:$7 O:$8
8
6
4
2
0
2009 2010 2011 2012
Created by BlueMatrix
All price targets displayed in the chart above are for a 12- to- 18-month period. Prior to March 30, 2004, Oppenheimer &
Co. Inc. used 6-, 12-, 12- to 18-, and 12- to 24-month price targets and ranges. For more information about target price
histories, please write to Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., 300 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10017, Attention: Equity Research
Department, Business Manager.
Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Rating System as of January 14th, 2008:
Outperform(O) - Stock expected to outperform the S&P 500 within the next 12-18 months.
Perform (P) - Stock expected to perform in line with the S&P 500 within the next 12-18 months.
Underperform (U) - Stock expected to underperform the S&P 500 within the next 12-18 months.
Not Rated (NR) - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. does not maintain coverage of the stock or is restricted from doing so due to a potential
conflict of interest.
Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Rating System prior to January 14th, 2008:
Buy - anticipates appreciation of 10% or more within the next 12 months, and/or a total return of 10% including dividend payments,
and/or the ability of the shares to perform better than the leading stock market averages or stocks within its particular industry sector.
Neutral - anticipates that the shares will trade at or near their current price and generally in line with the leading market averages due to
a perceived absence of strong dynamics that would cause volatility either to the upside or downside, and/or will perform less well than
higher rated companies within its peer group. Our readers should be aware that when a rating change occurs to Neutral from Buy,
aggressive trading accounts might decide to liquidate their positions to employ the funds elsewhere.
Sell - anticipates that the shares will depreciate 10% or more in price within the next 12 months, due to fundamental weakness
perceived in the company or for valuation reasons, or are expected to perform significantly worse than equities within the peer group.
9
10. KERYX Biopharmaceuticals Inc.
Distribution of Ratings/IB Services Firmwide
IB Serv/Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
OUTPERFORM [O] 328 55.30 145 44.21
PERFORM [P] 257 43.30 84 32.68
UNDERPERFORM [U] 8 1.30 3 37.50
Although the investment recommendations within the three-tiered, relative stock rating system utilized by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. do not
correlate to buy, hold and sell recommendations, for the purposes of complying with FINRA rules, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has assigned
buy ratings to securities rated Outperform, hold ratings to securities rated Perform, and sell ratings to securities rated Underperform.
Company Specific Disclosures
In the past 12 months Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has provided investment banking services for KERX.
Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3
months from KERX.
In the past 12 months Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for KERX.
In the past 12 months Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has received compensation for investment banking services from KERX.
Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. makes a market in the securities of KERX.
Additional Information Available
Please log on to http://www.opco.com or write to Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., 300 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10017,
Attention: Equity Research Department, Business Manager.
Other Disclosures
This report is issued and approved for distribution by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Oppenheimer & Co. Inc transacts Business on all Principal
Exchanges and Member SIPC. This report is provided, for informational purposes only, to institutional and retail investor clients of
Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction
where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. The securities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all types of investors.
This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any particular client of
Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Recipients should consider this report as only a single factor in making an investment decision and should not
rely solely on investment recommendations contained herein, if any, as a substitution for the exercise of independent judgment of the
merits and risks of investments. The analyst writing the report is not a person or company with actual, implied or apparent authority to
act on behalf of any issuer mentioned in the report. Before making an investment decision with respect to any security recommended in
this report, the recipient should consider whether such recommendation is appropriate given the recipient's particular investment needs,
10