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Climate and the Environment in ESA
The challenges and priorities
for Climate Change
Adaptation in ESA region
Outline
• What is climate change
• Climate change in ESA regions
• Adaptation interventions
Climate change: Is it happening?
The Global Climate System
Climate change: Is it happening?
The Greenhouse effect
4
Natural Climate Fluctuations –
Example of El Niño and La Niña
Source: NOAA. Further information: WMO Website
Climate change: Is it happening?
Anthropogenic Greenhouse gases - Agriculture
6
Climate change: Is it happening?
The Greenhouse effect
Climate overview
Global Observing System
1.5º
6º
Fact #1: The climatic context for agriculture is
changing rapidly
Sea level rise: Fastest recorded rise
in the 1990s (4mm/yr)
Decline of glaciers and arctic sea ice 2000-2010: Hottest
decade on record
Fact #2: These changes are more than ‘future
music’. They are real, and they are happening now.
Climate Change
buzzwords
and
fuzzwords
Climate Change and Global
Warming
Global Warming
Refers to the overall
warming of the planet,
based on average
temperature over the
entire surface of the
Earth
Climate Change
Refers to changes in
climate characteristics,
including temperature,
humidity, rainfall, wind,
and severe weather
events over long term
periods
Further information: WMO Website
Climate change: Is it happening?
Definition of Key terminologies
Weather: the state of the atmosphere at a particular place and time as regards
heat, cloudiness, dryness, sunshine, wind, rain, etc. "if the weather's good we
can go for a walk“
Synonym of weather: Meteorological & atmospheric conditions
Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the “average weather”
Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics
(such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate
on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events.
Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean
state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period
(typically decades or longer)
CLIMATE
Weather Weather Weather
Y to
 Vulnerability: a condition (based on physical, social, economic
and environmental factors) which determines the likelihood and
scale of damage from the impact of a particular hazard (= the
degree of expected damage from a hazard)
 Climate risk: the probability of harmful consequences or
expected losses resulting from interactions between climate
hazards and vulnerable conditions.
 Climate resilience: the ability of a system (household,
community, farm, value chain, ecosystem) to anticipate, absorb,
accommodate or recover from the effects of a climate shock or
stress
 Adaptive capacity: the ability of a system to adjust, modify or
change its characteristics to moderate potential damage or cope
with the consequences of a climate shock or stress.
Vulnerability, Risk, Resilience
Climate hazards, shocks and stresses
 Climate hazards: Climate phenomena that may result in losses and
damages to livelihood systems. Comprised of both shocks and stresses
 Climate shocks (climate extremes, extreme weather events):
Rapid onset floods, storms, wave surges, rainfall-induced landslides,
hailstorms, frost, forest/scrub fires; Slow onset agricultural/
meteorological/hydrological drought, heat waves
Some shocks are biologically induced but compounded by climatic factors
(pest infestations, water- borne or vector-borne diseases).
 Climate stresses: Persistent occurrence of lower-intensity damaging
events (soil erosion, degradation of coastal ecosystems, salinization of
soils & groundwater, glacial melt, soil evaporation, ocean acidification,
species migration, sea level rise)
Two Broad Responses to Climate
Changes
Actions taken to cut net emissions of
greenhouse gases to reduce climate
change and to preserve and enhance
GHG sinks and reservoirs
Actions taken to help cope with
changing climate conditions and impacts
Mitigation Adaptation
Source: UNITARSource: UNEP
Y to
Some common climate change ‘fuzzwords’
 ‘Climate-smart’: Coined by FAO and WB to describe agricultural systems
which a) increase productivity, b) increase resilience to climate change,
and c) reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Has raised contention about
large-scale industrial agriculture as mitigation ‘business’
 To ‘climate-proof’ something: shorthand for protecting investments (e.g.
infrastructure) from adverse climatic effects. Problematic, as very little
investments in rural development are impervious to climate effects
 ‘Natural disasters’: Invokes the notion that nature alone is responsible
for climate-related disasters. Disasters are socially constructed - Natural
hazards meet with vulnerable conditions. There are root causes for this
vulnerability, which development projects need to understand &
address.
Different approaches to Adaptation
Programming
Autonomous Adaptation
Based on a set of available technology and
management options.
Implemented by individuals only if
considered cost-effective
Planned Adaptation
Deliberate actions by local, regional and/or
national institutions
Decisions are made through modified
institutions and incentives, often based on
climate risk analysis –WAMPP Lesotho
Increasing infectious, water-
borne and vector-borne
diseases, heat stress &
mortality, additional public
health costs
PUBLIC
HEALTH FORESTRY
Changes in forest
composition,
extent, health &
productivity; forest
fires
WATER
RESOURCES
Variability in water supply, quality &
distribution; growing competition
and risks of conflicts; transboundary
water management problems
COASTAL
SYSTEMS
Erosion, inundation,
salinisation; stress
on mangroves,
marshes, wetlands
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
Loss of habitat,
species and
protective
ecosystems;
migratory shifts
AGRICULTURE
Less predictability in crop
yield, changing irrigation
demand, growing risk of pest
infestations
Global warming is not just a problem for agriculture. It
impacts on IFAD’s core business in various ways
Climate change: Who is responsible
How will climate change effect
these countries?
Temperatures are rising
(predicted temp change by 2070 – 99)
+3.5
+3.8
+3.9
+4
+4.1
+3.25
Extreme weather conditions are
becoming more frequent.
More rainfall in some
areas
Less rainfall in
others
Sea levels are rising
The ocean is becoming
more acidic
IFAD works with 22 countries in ESA.
Population 399 million
Rural population 70%
43% estimated to be living on less than $1.25/day:
IFAD’s mission:
Rural Poverty Reduction.
If existing practices continue, what is the expected
impact of climate change on Crop Yields?
Remember this is
a generalization
at the regional
scale!
This spatial variability
map of Southern
Zimbabwe shows how
monthly rainfall amounts
varied considerably over
a 25km2 catchment in the
month of January 2008.
(ICRISAT 2008)
There is enormous heterogeneity within each country.
How will
climate change
affect rural
livelihoods?
Less ocean
resources
More shocks
Land
degradation
Lower
yields
Habitat loss
Biodiversity
loss
Less
wildlife
Loss of
tourist
revenue
Water stress
Loss of
assets
INCREASE IN
POVERTY,
INEQUALITY AND
VULNERABILITY
More pests and
diseases
How could climate change affect smallholder farmers in
ESA?
Maladaptation
Rural development
increases smallholder
resilience to climate
risks
Climate Change
has positive
effects on rural
development
Rural
development
does not increase
(or even reduces)
smallholder
resilience to
climate risks
IFAD projects are affecting
resilience to climate change
(an entry point for improving what we are doing already)
IFAD projects are
being affected by climate change
(a new reality we need to consider in our programming)
Climate Change
has negative
effects on
rural development
PROTECT CAPITALIZE
UPSCALEREDUCE
What do we need to think about as we assess climate change
and other environmental challenges?
How are climate events interrupting
access to markets?
How robust is our infrastructure?
How
sustainable
is the use
of
natural
resources
in a more
hostile
climate?
What is Plan B for crop
failures?
No development
without adaptive
capacity
Physical and Social characteristics of ESA countries that will influence
the impact of climate change….
El Nino effect
Soil degradation
Adaptive
capacity
Gender inequality
Natural resource
management
Infrastructure
Governance
Investment
Population growth and
urbanisation Economic growth
and innovation
?
57%
31%
27%
25%
Promising approaches…
HELPING PEOPLE
MAKE DECISIONS
NEW
PERSPECTIVES
MAKING USE OF
CLIMATE FINANCE
SUSTAINABLE LAND
MANAGEMENT
RISK MANAGEMENT
Better data collection
and sharing
Using local
expertise
Landscape level
and value chain
analysis.
Context specific
planning
Focus on adaptive
capacity
Appreciation of special needs
of urban/periurban agriculture
Vulnerability analysis
Gender analysis
and inclusion
GIS
Water use
Soil fertility
Agroforestry
Maintain biodiversityseed varieties
Livelihood diversification
… and the deployment of technologies, resources
and capacities to manage them better.
Early Warning systems/
Better disaster
management
Access to better
weather information
New types of social
safety nets
Alternative Energy
sources
Climate resilient
crop options
More robust / flexible
infrastructure
Diversified livelihoodsBetter post-harvest
protection
Example – Helping people make decisions
Participatory scenario
planning in Northern
Kenya brings together
meteorologists,
community members,
local government
departments and NGOs
to discuss climate
forecasts and prepare
jointly for different
scenarios. (facilitated by
CARE ALP) Photo courtesy of CARE ALP
ICT reinforces traditional Maasai
adaption strategies in Tanzania
(IFAD funded project.
Installing a phone
tower..
Photo courtesy Mwanzo
Millinga, IFAD
http://www.ifad.org/climate/regions/esa/index.ht
m
Example - New Perspectives
Context specific
analysis by Agriwaters
project identifies
identified potential to
enhance traditional
river diversion
schemes in Tanzania.
Photo credit. Engineers without borders, USA
An IFAD funded project in
Madagascar uses a landscape
approach to address crosscutting
and related issues such as land
management and soil erosion and
conflicts between farmers and
herders.
Photos courtesy of IFAD/R
Ramasomanana
Example – Tools
GIS tools have been used to enhance
data sharing for planning and
monitoring in IFAD projects in Kenya
and Tanzania.
Map showing survival
rates of trees in
reforestation sites in
Aberdare and Mt
Kenya area (courtesy
AWF)
ACCRA NGO alliance has developed a
framework for assessing local adaptive
capacity which can be used to identify
context specific priorities.
Example - Sustainable land management practices have
potential to reduce emissions and mitigate the negative impacts
or climate change by increasing yields.
The IPCC estimates that improved agricultural and land
management practices in SSA could make a significant
contribution to reducing global emissions and sequestering
carbon.
Mainstreaming
conservation farming
has led to a near
doubling of maize
yields in Zambia since
1990.
Photos courtesy
of Conservation
Farming unit.
Example – Enhancing risk management
Safety nets programmes in Kenya and Ethiopia are
targeted at the most vulnerable households allowing them
to weather shocks and maintain assets.
Weather insurance is
providing a new option
for both individual
households and
governments to insure
themselves against
climatic shocks.
Sako Dabasso Halake with her livestock insurance payout,
Marsabit (photo credit: Jeff Haskins/ Burness communications).
Example – making use of climate finance
Private carbon offset funds are
financing reforestation in Kibale
forest, Uganda.
Photo courtesy Kate Holt, Climate Care
Use of GEF
funds allowed
the MKEPP
project in Kenya
to use a
landscape level
approach.
Putting our policy into practice…
What do we need to do?
What are the key climate change
and environmental issues in
Country X today?
What is YOUR role?
What is IFAD’s role in supporting
drivers of positive change?
What are stakeholders in ESA
doing to respond to the challenges
of climate change?
What are the most promising
approaches?
The challenges and priorities for Climate
Change Adaptation in Country XXXXX

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Item 3. Developing EPOC’s PWB related to mitigation for 2025-26Item 3. Developing EPOC’s PWB related to mitigation for 2025-26
Item 3. Developing EPOC’s PWB related to mitigation for 2025-26
 

The challenges and priorities for Climate Change Adaptation in ESA region by Dr. Stephen Twomlow

  • 1. Climate and the Environment in ESA The challenges and priorities for Climate Change Adaptation in ESA region
  • 2. Outline • What is climate change • Climate change in ESA regions • Adaptation interventions
  • 3. Climate change: Is it happening? The Global Climate System
  • 4. Climate change: Is it happening? The Greenhouse effect 4
  • 5. Natural Climate Fluctuations – Example of El Niño and La Niña Source: NOAA. Further information: WMO Website
  • 6. Climate change: Is it happening? Anthropogenic Greenhouse gases - Agriculture 6
  • 7. Climate change: Is it happening? The Greenhouse effect
  • 9. 1.5º 6º Fact #1: The climatic context for agriculture is changing rapidly
  • 10. Sea level rise: Fastest recorded rise in the 1990s (4mm/yr) Decline of glaciers and arctic sea ice 2000-2010: Hottest decade on record Fact #2: These changes are more than ‘future music’. They are real, and they are happening now.
  • 12. Climate Change and Global Warming Global Warming Refers to the overall warming of the planet, based on average temperature over the entire surface of the Earth Climate Change Refers to changes in climate characteristics, including temperature, humidity, rainfall, wind, and severe weather events over long term periods Further information: WMO Website
  • 13. Climate change: Is it happening? Definition of Key terminologies Weather: the state of the atmosphere at a particular place and time as regards heat, cloudiness, dryness, sunshine, wind, rain, etc. "if the weather's good we can go for a walk“ Synonym of weather: Meteorological & atmospheric conditions Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the “average weather” Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer) CLIMATE Weather Weather Weather
  • 14. Y to  Vulnerability: a condition (based on physical, social, economic and environmental factors) which determines the likelihood and scale of damage from the impact of a particular hazard (= the degree of expected damage from a hazard)  Climate risk: the probability of harmful consequences or expected losses resulting from interactions between climate hazards and vulnerable conditions.  Climate resilience: the ability of a system (household, community, farm, value chain, ecosystem) to anticipate, absorb, accommodate or recover from the effects of a climate shock or stress  Adaptive capacity: the ability of a system to adjust, modify or change its characteristics to moderate potential damage or cope with the consequences of a climate shock or stress. Vulnerability, Risk, Resilience
  • 15. Climate hazards, shocks and stresses  Climate hazards: Climate phenomena that may result in losses and damages to livelihood systems. Comprised of both shocks and stresses  Climate shocks (climate extremes, extreme weather events): Rapid onset floods, storms, wave surges, rainfall-induced landslides, hailstorms, frost, forest/scrub fires; Slow onset agricultural/ meteorological/hydrological drought, heat waves Some shocks are biologically induced but compounded by climatic factors (pest infestations, water- borne or vector-borne diseases).  Climate stresses: Persistent occurrence of lower-intensity damaging events (soil erosion, degradation of coastal ecosystems, salinization of soils & groundwater, glacial melt, soil evaporation, ocean acidification, species migration, sea level rise)
  • 16. Two Broad Responses to Climate Changes Actions taken to cut net emissions of greenhouse gases to reduce climate change and to preserve and enhance GHG sinks and reservoirs Actions taken to help cope with changing climate conditions and impacts Mitigation Adaptation Source: UNITARSource: UNEP
  • 17. Y to Some common climate change ‘fuzzwords’  ‘Climate-smart’: Coined by FAO and WB to describe agricultural systems which a) increase productivity, b) increase resilience to climate change, and c) reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Has raised contention about large-scale industrial agriculture as mitigation ‘business’  To ‘climate-proof’ something: shorthand for protecting investments (e.g. infrastructure) from adverse climatic effects. Problematic, as very little investments in rural development are impervious to climate effects  ‘Natural disasters’: Invokes the notion that nature alone is responsible for climate-related disasters. Disasters are socially constructed - Natural hazards meet with vulnerable conditions. There are root causes for this vulnerability, which development projects need to understand & address.
  • 18. Different approaches to Adaptation Programming Autonomous Adaptation Based on a set of available technology and management options. Implemented by individuals only if considered cost-effective Planned Adaptation Deliberate actions by local, regional and/or national institutions Decisions are made through modified institutions and incentives, often based on climate risk analysis –WAMPP Lesotho
  • 19. Increasing infectious, water- borne and vector-borne diseases, heat stress & mortality, additional public health costs PUBLIC HEALTH FORESTRY Changes in forest composition, extent, health & productivity; forest fires WATER RESOURCES Variability in water supply, quality & distribution; growing competition and risks of conflicts; transboundary water management problems COASTAL SYSTEMS Erosion, inundation, salinisation; stress on mangroves, marshes, wetlands ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Loss of habitat, species and protective ecosystems; migratory shifts AGRICULTURE Less predictability in crop yield, changing irrigation demand, growing risk of pest infestations Global warming is not just a problem for agriculture. It impacts on IFAD’s core business in various ways
  • 20. Climate change: Who is responsible
  • 21. How will climate change effect these countries? Temperatures are rising (predicted temp change by 2070 – 99) +3.5 +3.8 +3.9 +4 +4.1 +3.25 Extreme weather conditions are becoming more frequent. More rainfall in some areas Less rainfall in others Sea levels are rising The ocean is becoming more acidic IFAD works with 22 countries in ESA. Population 399 million Rural population 70% 43% estimated to be living on less than $1.25/day: IFAD’s mission: Rural Poverty Reduction.
  • 22. If existing practices continue, what is the expected impact of climate change on Crop Yields? Remember this is a generalization at the regional scale!
  • 23. This spatial variability map of Southern Zimbabwe shows how monthly rainfall amounts varied considerably over a 25km2 catchment in the month of January 2008. (ICRISAT 2008) There is enormous heterogeneity within each country.
  • 24. How will climate change affect rural livelihoods? Less ocean resources More shocks Land degradation Lower yields Habitat loss Biodiversity loss Less wildlife Loss of tourist revenue Water stress Loss of assets INCREASE IN POVERTY, INEQUALITY AND VULNERABILITY More pests and diseases How could climate change affect smallholder farmers in ESA? Maladaptation
  • 25. Rural development increases smallholder resilience to climate risks Climate Change has positive effects on rural development Rural development does not increase (or even reduces) smallholder resilience to climate risks IFAD projects are affecting resilience to climate change (an entry point for improving what we are doing already) IFAD projects are being affected by climate change (a new reality we need to consider in our programming) Climate Change has negative effects on rural development PROTECT CAPITALIZE UPSCALEREDUCE
  • 26. What do we need to think about as we assess climate change and other environmental challenges? How are climate events interrupting access to markets? How robust is our infrastructure? How sustainable is the use of natural resources in a more hostile climate? What is Plan B for crop failures? No development without adaptive capacity
  • 27. Physical and Social characteristics of ESA countries that will influence the impact of climate change…. El Nino effect Soil degradation Adaptive capacity Gender inequality Natural resource management Infrastructure Governance Investment Population growth and urbanisation Economic growth and innovation ? 57% 31% 27% 25%
  • 28. Promising approaches… HELPING PEOPLE MAKE DECISIONS NEW PERSPECTIVES MAKING USE OF CLIMATE FINANCE SUSTAINABLE LAND MANAGEMENT RISK MANAGEMENT Better data collection and sharing Using local expertise Landscape level and value chain analysis. Context specific planning Focus on adaptive capacity Appreciation of special needs of urban/periurban agriculture Vulnerability analysis Gender analysis and inclusion GIS Water use Soil fertility Agroforestry Maintain biodiversityseed varieties Livelihood diversification
  • 29. … and the deployment of technologies, resources and capacities to manage them better. Early Warning systems/ Better disaster management Access to better weather information New types of social safety nets Alternative Energy sources Climate resilient crop options More robust / flexible infrastructure Diversified livelihoodsBetter post-harvest protection
  • 30. Example – Helping people make decisions Participatory scenario planning in Northern Kenya brings together meteorologists, community members, local government departments and NGOs to discuss climate forecasts and prepare jointly for different scenarios. (facilitated by CARE ALP) Photo courtesy of CARE ALP ICT reinforces traditional Maasai adaption strategies in Tanzania (IFAD funded project. Installing a phone tower.. Photo courtesy Mwanzo Millinga, IFAD http://www.ifad.org/climate/regions/esa/index.ht m
  • 31. Example - New Perspectives Context specific analysis by Agriwaters project identifies identified potential to enhance traditional river diversion schemes in Tanzania. Photo credit. Engineers without borders, USA An IFAD funded project in Madagascar uses a landscape approach to address crosscutting and related issues such as land management and soil erosion and conflicts between farmers and herders. Photos courtesy of IFAD/R Ramasomanana
  • 32. Example – Tools GIS tools have been used to enhance data sharing for planning and monitoring in IFAD projects in Kenya and Tanzania. Map showing survival rates of trees in reforestation sites in Aberdare and Mt Kenya area (courtesy AWF) ACCRA NGO alliance has developed a framework for assessing local adaptive capacity which can be used to identify context specific priorities.
  • 33. Example - Sustainable land management practices have potential to reduce emissions and mitigate the negative impacts or climate change by increasing yields. The IPCC estimates that improved agricultural and land management practices in SSA could make a significant contribution to reducing global emissions and sequestering carbon. Mainstreaming conservation farming has led to a near doubling of maize yields in Zambia since 1990. Photos courtesy of Conservation Farming unit.
  • 34. Example – Enhancing risk management Safety nets programmes in Kenya and Ethiopia are targeted at the most vulnerable households allowing them to weather shocks and maintain assets. Weather insurance is providing a new option for both individual households and governments to insure themselves against climatic shocks. Sako Dabasso Halake with her livestock insurance payout, Marsabit (photo credit: Jeff Haskins/ Burness communications).
  • 35. Example – making use of climate finance Private carbon offset funds are financing reforestation in Kibale forest, Uganda. Photo courtesy Kate Holt, Climate Care Use of GEF funds allowed the MKEPP project in Kenya to use a landscape level approach.
  • 36. Putting our policy into practice… What do we need to do?
  • 37. What are the key climate change and environmental issues in Country X today? What is YOUR role? What is IFAD’s role in supporting drivers of positive change? What are stakeholders in ESA doing to respond to the challenges of climate change? What are the most promising approaches? The challenges and priorities for Climate Change Adaptation in Country XXXXX