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OIS AND CSA DISCOUNTING




Co-Authored by Rohan Douglas and Peter Decrem (Quantifi)

• A new generation of interest rate modelling based on
  dual curve pricing and integrated CVA is evolving
• This new framework requires a rethink of derivative
  modelling from first principles and presents significant
  challenges for existing valuation, risk management, and
  margining systems



www.quantifisolutions.com
About the Authors

Rohan Douglas
Rohan has over 25 years experience in the global financial industry. Prior to
founding Quantifi in 2002, he was a Director of Research at Salomon Brothers and
Citigroup, where he worked for ten years. He has extensive experience working
in credit, interest rate derivatives, emerging markets and global fixed income.
Mr.Douglas teaches as an adjunct professor in the graduate Financial Engineering
program at NYU Poly in New York and the Macquarie University Applied Finance
Centre in Australia and Singapore and is the editor of the book Credit Derivative
Strategies by Bloomberg Press.



Peter Decrem
Peter heads the Rates Group at Quantifi. As Director, Peter is responsible
for managing the product development process of all Rates Solutions within
the Quantifi product suite. Peter started in Research and Technology at Bear
Stearns and Deutsche Bank. He traded fixed income derivatives, government
bonds and agencies for Lehman Brothers and Salomon Brothers. He was
responsible for fixed income derivatives trading desk for a number of European
banks. Most recently he refocused on technology and specifically concentrated
on machine learning and high frequency trading on parallel systems prior to
joining Quantifi in 2009.
OIS and CSA discounting


Introduction
Prior to the credit crisis, interest rate modelling was generally well understood. The underlying fundamental
principles had existed for over thirty years with steady evolutions in areas that were most relevant to options
and complex products. Credit and liquidity were ignored as their effects were minimal. Pricing a single
currency interest rate swap was straightforward. A single interest rate curve was calibrated to liquid market
products and future cash flows were estimated and discounted using this single curve. There was little
variation between implementations and results across the market were consistent.

Following the credit crisis, interest modelling has undergone nothing short of a revolution. During the credit
crisis, credit and liquidity issues drove apart previously closely related rates. For example, Euribor basis
swap spreads dramatically increased and the spreads between Euribor and Eonia OIS swaps diverged.
In addition, the effect of counterparty credit on valuation and risk management dramatically increased.
Existing modelling and infrastructure no longer worked and a rethink from first principles has taken place.

Today a new interest rate modelling framework is evolving based on OIS discounting and integrated CVA.
Pricing a single currency interest rate swap now takes into account the difference between projected rates
such as Euribor that include credit risk and the rates appropriate for discounting cash flows that are risk free
or based on funding cost. This approach is referred to as dual curve, OIS discounting, or CSA discounting
and forces a re-derivation of derivatives valuation from first principles. In addition, the counterparty credit
risk of (uncollateralised) OTC transactions are measured as a credit valuation adjustment (CVA) which takes
into account the likelihood the counterparty will default, along with expected exposures, volatility of these
expected exposures, and wrong way risk. In this paper we will focus on OIS discounting as part of this new
interest rate modelling framework.
Interest Rate modelling prior to the credit crisis
Prior to the credit crisis, interest rate derivatives were valued with models that focused on the dynamics and
term structure of interest rates but generally ignored other elements including:

    •	 Credit risk
    •	 Liquidity risk
    •	 Collateral agreements
    •	 Funding costs

Since the introduction of Black-Scholes in 1973, interest rate modelling has evolved steadily. There have
been several key milestones with the most recent evolutions prior to the credit crisis relating to volatility
skew modelling.




                               Figure 1: Key milestones in the history of interest rate modelling



Valuing a single currency vanilla interest rate swap involved calculating forward rates and discounting
expected cash flows from a single interest rate curve based on no-arbitrage assumptions. These curves
were calibrated from liquid interest rate products including money market securities, Eurodollar futures,
FRAs, and interest rate swaps. A common reference rate for Euro denominated swaps is the Euro Interbank
Offer Rate (Euribor). Euribor rates are published 11am Central European Time each day and are calculated
as the average (excluding the top and bottom 15%) offer rates from over 40 contributing banks for Euro
Interbank deposits. 15 different maturities are published. These deposits are unsecured but prior to the
credit crisis were considered a proxy for a risk-free rate. Similar interbank deposit rates are calculated for
other currencies.
The key modelling components are curve construction, pricing, and risk management.

Curve construction
1. Select a set of liquid interest rate securities. For example – EUR deposits, Euribor futures and
   Euribor swaps
2. Make selections for the handling of overlapping securities, interpolation methods and
   seasonality effects
3. Fit a single yield curve using bootstrapping, tension splines, or other fitting methods




                        Figure 2: Calibrating an interest rate curve in a single curve valuation framework
                                                        (source Quantifi)




Figure 2 shows a typical calibration screen where funding rates, money market rates, FRAs and Swap rates
are combined to calibrate a discount curve.
Pricing

   1. Calculate expected future floating coupon payments of the floating leg of the swap by calculating the
      forward rate




   2. Calculate the expected value of the floating leg of the swap by present valuing each of the expected
      cashflows




              Figure 3: Pricing an off-market interest rate swap in a single curve valuation framework (source Quantifi)
Figure 3 shows a typical pricing screen for an off-market interest rate swap. The net interest rate sensitivity
shown as Net IR01 is the change in the mark-to-market value of the swap if interest rates increase by one
basis point. Note that under this pricing framework, a floater will price to par.

Risk Management
    1. Calculate the sensitivity of expected value of the swap to changes in the yield curve
    2. Calculate the sensitivity of the chosen liquid hedge securities to changes in the yield curve to determine
        the correct hedge ratios
    3. Hedge the swap with with the chosen hedge securities. For example, an off market Euribor swap may be
        hedged with a combination of liquid at-market Euribor swaps




                         Figure 4: Hedging analysis for an off-market interest rate swap in a single curve
                                            valuation framework (source Quantifi)



Figure 4 shows the interest rate sensitivity by tenor for an off market interest rate swap of roughly 8 ½ years
maturity. The appropriate hedge is a combination of liquid at-market 8 year and 9 year interest rate swaps.
Impact of the Credit Crisis on the Rates Market
As the credit crisis unfolded, there were significant impacts on the structure and dynamics of the rates
market. Credit and liquidity drove segmentation and rates that were previously closely related diverged,
causing a rethink of how these rates should be modelled.

Basis swap spreads increased dramatically
A basis swap is an interest rate swap where the parties exchange floating rate payments of different tenors.
For example, a swap where one party pays Euribor 3M + a spread and the other party pays Euribor 6M. The
swaps are quoted in terms of the spread.




                                           Figure 5: Euribor 3M Vs 6M Basis Swap


Reflecting the different credit risk and market segmentation between different Euribor rate tenors, basis
swap spreads blew out during the crisis from being fractions of a basis point (where they had been quoted
for decades) to double digits in a matter of months. In Figure 6 we see a graph of the Basis Swap Spreads
for 3M Vs 6M Euribor of 1Y maturity. The 3M Vs 6M Euribor Basis swap spread went from under a basis
point to peak at over 44bp around October 2008, after the Lehman default.




                           Figure 6: 3M Vs 6M Euribor 1 year basis swap spreads (source Bloomberg)



This divergence is again a reflection of different credit and liquidity risks between these indices. The longer
term deposits (6M) carry more credit risk than the shorter (3M) deposits.
OIS and LIBOR swap rates diverged
Overnight Index Swaps are swaps with a fixed leg versus a floating rate leg that is indexed to an overnight
rate. For Euros, the OIS swap is indexed to the Eonia rate. The Eonia rate is a weighted (by volume) average
of all overnight unsecured lending transactions in the European interbank market. The contributing banks
are the same as those contributing to the Euribor index and the index is calculated and published by the
European Central Bank (ECB). Other currencies have similar reference rates – for example the Fed Funds
rate in the US. These rates are typically targeted by the respective central banks as a part of monetary
policy. In Europe, the Eonia trades between the Deposit Facility rate and the Margin Lending Facility rates
set by the ECB.

The daily tenor of the Eonia transactions means that these rates carry negligible credit and liquidity risk. The
spread between Euribor Deposits and the Eonia OIS rates blew out through the credit crisis. Figure 7 shows
a graph of the spread between the Euribor 6M deposit rate and the 6M Eonia OIS rate.




                         Figure 7: Euribor 6M Deposit rate Vs 6M Eonia OIS rate (source Bloomberg)



The basis widened dramatically from under 10 basis points to peak at 222.5 basis points around Lehman’s
default in October 2008. The Euribor/Eonia spread has persisted even after the credit crisis and reflects the
revised view of the different credit and liquidity characteristics between these two rates. The Eonia rate has
now become the market standard proxy for a EUR market risk-free rate.
The relationship between forward rates of different tenors diverged.
Prior to the credit crisis there were small but generally negligible differences between forward rates implied
from interest rate products of different tenors. No-arbitrage arguments held and a 6 month rate implied
from a 3 month rate and a 3x6 month forward would match. As the credit crisis continued, the market
segmented and this previously arbitrage-free relationship broke down.




               Figure 8: 3x6M forward rates implied by 3M and 6M Euribor Vs 3x6M FRA and Euribor 6M deposit Vs 6M
                                   rate implied by Euribor 3M and 0x3M FRA. (Source Banca IMI)



Figure 8 shows two examples of the divergence between implied rates from different tenors. This
segmentation meant that you could no longer price swaps paying a 3M floating rate coupon using curves
calibrated from swaps paying 6M floating rate coupons.

Increased use of Collateral Agreements
Another effect of the credit crisis has been a dramatic increase in the use of collateral agreements as a
method of managing counterparty risk. The 2010 ISDA Margin Survey reports that 70 percent of OTC
derivatives net credit exposure worldwide is covered by collateral, compared with 29 percent in 2003.

Collateral agreements provide a margining facility whereby parties in an OTC transaction post or receive
margin on a regular basis to mitigate counterparty risk. The Credit Support Annex (CSA) is a part of the
standard International Swaps and Dealers Association (ISDA) master agreement that provides the legal
framework for OTC derivative trades between two parties. The margining facility is similar to that used by
a clearing house and provides for posting of collateral based on a calculated mark-to-market valuation for
a transaction. The collateral can be cash or assets of the same value. The holder of the collateral pays an
interest rate called the ‘collateral rate’. Under default, the collateral is available to the holder to cover the
net market value owed. The collateral agreement typically allows for netting across all trades covered by
that ISDA master agreement. Typical collateral agreements provide for daily collateral calls and a collateral
rate such as Eonia, Fed Funds, Sterling overnight index average (Sonia) or Jibar.
The New Interest Rate Modelling Paradigm
Clearly the credit crisis had a significant impact on the interest rates market. A large part of this related
to the increased importance of credit and liquidity risk along with structural changes such as an increased
use of collateral agreements. These changes have driven a profound shift in the way all OTC products are
valued and risk managed. The result has been an abandonment of the classic derivatives pricing framework
based on single interest rate curves and the introduction of a new approach that takes into account current
interest rate dynamics and market segmentation using multiple curves.

Dual curve/OIS discounting
The old-style no-arbitrage, single-curve derivatives valuation framework where Euribor was a reasonable
proxy for a risk-neutral discount rate has been permanently changed by the credit crisis. An understanding
of the credit risk embedded in Euribor and similar rates and an increased importance in the modelling
of funding have driven a separation between the index rates used for the floating legs of the swap (the
projection rates) and the appropriate rates used for present value (the discount rates). The market-standard
rate to discount future cash flows is now OIS rates.

The method of projecting rates using Euribor and discounting rates using Eonia changes the fundamental
framework for existing derivative modelling. It has required a rethink from first principles that continues
to be discussed and refined. Pricing and risk managing even a vanilla single currency swap has become
significantly more complex. Curve construction, pricing and hedging now involve multiple instruments and
additional basis risks. These complexities compound for interest rate products such as cross currency swaps,
Caps/Floors and Swaptions.

Funding cost
The debate about what are appropriate discount rates is still in progress. The role of funding and funding
costs is a complex one. The impact of different market participants funding costs, the uncertainty in some
institutions about measuring funding costs, and the impact of LVA are the subject of current academic
and market debate.

Counterparty risk and CVA
A broader and evolving understanding of valuing and managing counterparty credit risk was well underway
before the credit crisis. Many of the larger global banks had been actively measuring and managing
counterparty credit risk many years prior to the crisis. The crisis, however, dramatically increased the focus
for market participants as well as regulators and accelerated the impact on the broader OTC markets. The
measurement and management of counterparty risk is now something that impacts all market participants.
Accurate valuation of OTC products now requires accurate valuation of the credit component of each
transaction. In addition, regulatory initiatives such as Basel III and Solvency II, along with accounting rules
such as ASC 820 (FAS 157) and IAS 39 have mandated more accurate counterparty risk valuation and risk
management.

The larger banks have led the evolution of valuing and managing counterparty credit risk. Over time they have
converged to generally consistent methods and processes. The concept of a Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) is
now widely accepted and consistently calculated across the markets. OTC transactions that carry counterparty
exposure executed by all the larger institutions now have a CVA component as part of the valuation. An
accurate CVA calculation takes into account all transactions in the portfolio with that counterparty as well as
any netting agreements, CSAs and collateral.
Dual Curve OIS Discounting Curve Construction
Following the credit crisis, interest rate derivatives are now valued with models that reflect the observed
market segmentation, counterparty risk, and interest rate dynamics. Valuing a single currency vanilla interest
rate swap involves calculating forward rates based on Euribor rate curves and discounting expected cash flows
using Eonia rates. As in the single-curve case, these curves are calibrated from liquid interest rate products.
For the EUR curves this includes money market securities, futures, FRAs, IONA swaps, basis swaps and interest
rate swaps. The process is complicated, however, by changes to the modelling principles around calculating
the expected forward rates. These forward rates must be conditional on the Eonia rates used for discounting.

Curve construction

   1. Select a set of liquid interest rate securities for each curve.
   2. The Eonia interest rate curve is fitted to Eonia rates including deposits and OIS swap spreads. As with
       single-curve interest rate curve construction, key issues include

       – Selection of curve instruments
       – Convexity adjustments for Future prices
       – Overlapping securities
       – Seasonal effects
       – Interpolation methods (fit Vs smoothness)
   3. In addition there are specific complexities relating to bootstrapping the Eonia curve including
       – Modelling the step nature and key policy dates for central bank target rates
       – Dealing with less liquid tenors
       – Bootstrapping longer dated parts of the curve from swap spreads
   4. Fit the Euribor interest rate curve conditional on the Eonia interest rate curve. This calibration needs
       to be carefully done to provide robust and accurate matching of Euribor swap rates. For example, the
       resulting curve should reprice a standard Euribor interest rate swap at par.


Pricing

   1. Calculate expected future floating coupon payments of the floating leg of the swap by calculating the
       forward rate
2. Calculated the expected value of the floating leg of the swap by present valuing each of the
       expected cash flows




                      Figure 9: Single currency interest rate swap pricing under dual curve (source Quantifi)



Figure 9 shows a typical pricing screen for an off-market interest rate swap. In addition to the Euribor rate
sensitivity (Net IR 01), there is an additional basis risk Vs Eonia rates (Net Spread 01) introduced. Note that
under this pricing framework, an at-market floater will not price to par.
Risk Management

   1. Calculate the sensitivity of expected value of the swap to changes in the forward rate curve
   2. Calculate the sensitivity of expected value of the swap to changes in the discount rate curve
   3. Calculate the sensitivity of the chosen hedge securities to changes in the interest curves to determine
       the correct hedge ratios.
   4. Hedge the swap with the chosen hedge securities. For example an off market Euribor swap may be
       hedged by a combination of liquid at-market Euribor swaps and a combination of at-market Eonia
       OIS swaps.


Posting collateral in multiple currencies
In many cases, CSA agreements provide for posting of collateral in one of several currencies. This adds
a level of complexity to the selecting of the appropriate discount curve to use and adds a degree of
optionality that is difficult to model. Often these effects are managed on an ad-hoc basis.




                Figure 10: Interest rate risk for a single currency swap priced using OIS discounting (source Quantifi)
Figure 11: Basis swap risk for a single currency interest rate swap using OIS Discounting (source Quantifi)




Dual currency pricing of Cross Currency Swaps
Historically, cross currency swaps were priced based on a single interest rate curve for each currency, a cross
currency basis spread, and the current spot FX quote. Depending on the currency pair, different methods
of calibration would be used to take advantage of the most liquid markets and quotes (for example, foreign
swap rates Vs FX forwards). Dual curve pricing of cross currency swaps adds challenges in terms of the
relationship between the appropriate discount curves, projection curves, and cross currency basis. One
method for calibrating the interest rate curves for a fixed/floating cross currency swap is:

   •	 Select a set of liquid interest rate securities for each curve
   •	 Fit the OIS discount curves for each currency
   •	 Fit the LIBOR projection curves for the floating rate currency conditional on the OIS discount curves
   •	 Adjust the floating rate projection curve based on cross currency basis swap rates
Figure 12 shows the process flow for calibrating interest rate curves for valuing a USD/EUR fixed/floating cross
currency swap. The EUR leg is discounted using the Eonia curve. The USD leg would be projected using the
cross-currency basis adjusted LIBOR interest rate curve and discounted using the Fed Funds curve.




                        Figure 12: Cross currency curve construction in a dual curve valuation framework




The calibration process shown here is simplified. The calibration and pricing processes have significant
implications for the hedging and risk management of these products and need to be carefully thought through.
Moving to integrated dual curve OIS discounting and CVA
There is clear evidence that the market has moved to valuing interest rate swaps using OIS discounting and
integrated CVA. The move towards central clearing and standardised products has accelerated this trend
and the recent press release from the London Clearing House (LCH.Clearnet) is a very clear testimony to
this wider adoption.

   “LCH.Clearnet Ltd (LCH.Clearnet), which operates the world’s leading interest rate swap (IRS) clearing
   service, SwapClear, is to begin using the overnight index swap (OIS) rate curves to discount its $218
   trillion IRS portfolio.

   Previously, in line with market practice, the portfolio was discounted using LIBOR. However, an
   increasing proportion of trades are now priced using OIS discounting. After extensive consultation with
   market participants, LCH.Clearnet has decided to move to OIS to ensure the most accurate valuation of
   its portfolio for risk management purposes.”

LCH’s decision to move to OIS discounting reflected the fact that most swaps cleared through their system
were subject to standard CSAs with daily collateral calls and a collateral rate based on OIS rates. The large
market-making banks are now pricing using OIS discounting and their margining and collateral systems are
being converted to also reflect this practice.



Conclusion
A new generation of interest rate modelling is evolving. An approach based on dual curve pricing and
integrated CVA has become the market consensus. There is compelling evidence that the market for
interest rate products has moved to pricing on this basis, but not all market participants are at the stage
were existing legacy valuation and risk management systems are up to date. The changes required for
existing systems are significant and present many challenges in an environment where efficient use of
capital at the business line level is becoming increasingly important.
ABOUT QUANTIFI
Quantifi is a leading provider of analytics, trading and risk management software for the Global Capital Markets. Our
suite of integrated pre and post-trade solutions allow market participants to better value, trade and risk manage their
exposures and respond more effectively to changing market conditions.


Founded in 2002, Quantifi has over 120 top-tier clients including five of the six largest global banks, two of the three
largest asset managers, leading hedge funds, insurance companies, pension funds and other financial institutions across
15 countries.


Renowned for our client focus, depth of experience and commitment to innovation, Quantifi is consistently first-to-
market with intuitive, award-winning solutions.


For further information, please visit www.quantifisolutions.com




CONTACT QUANTIFI
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OIS and CSA Discounting

  • 1. WHITE PAPER OIS AND CSA DISCOUNTING Co-Authored by Rohan Douglas and Peter Decrem (Quantifi) • A new generation of interest rate modelling based on dual curve pricing and integrated CVA is evolving • This new framework requires a rethink of derivative modelling from first principles and presents significant challenges for existing valuation, risk management, and margining systems www.quantifisolutions.com
  • 2. About the Authors Rohan Douglas Rohan has over 25 years experience in the global financial industry. Prior to founding Quantifi in 2002, he was a Director of Research at Salomon Brothers and Citigroup, where he worked for ten years. He has extensive experience working in credit, interest rate derivatives, emerging markets and global fixed income. Mr.Douglas teaches as an adjunct professor in the graduate Financial Engineering program at NYU Poly in New York and the Macquarie University Applied Finance Centre in Australia and Singapore and is the editor of the book Credit Derivative Strategies by Bloomberg Press. Peter Decrem Peter heads the Rates Group at Quantifi. As Director, Peter is responsible for managing the product development process of all Rates Solutions within the Quantifi product suite. Peter started in Research and Technology at Bear Stearns and Deutsche Bank. He traded fixed income derivatives, government bonds and agencies for Lehman Brothers and Salomon Brothers. He was responsible for fixed income derivatives trading desk for a number of European banks. Most recently he refocused on technology and specifically concentrated on machine learning and high frequency trading on parallel systems prior to joining Quantifi in 2009.
  • 3. OIS and CSA discounting Introduction Prior to the credit crisis, interest rate modelling was generally well understood. The underlying fundamental principles had existed for over thirty years with steady evolutions in areas that were most relevant to options and complex products. Credit and liquidity were ignored as their effects were minimal. Pricing a single currency interest rate swap was straightforward. A single interest rate curve was calibrated to liquid market products and future cash flows were estimated and discounted using this single curve. There was little variation between implementations and results across the market were consistent. Following the credit crisis, interest modelling has undergone nothing short of a revolution. During the credit crisis, credit and liquidity issues drove apart previously closely related rates. For example, Euribor basis swap spreads dramatically increased and the spreads between Euribor and Eonia OIS swaps diverged. In addition, the effect of counterparty credit on valuation and risk management dramatically increased. Existing modelling and infrastructure no longer worked and a rethink from first principles has taken place. Today a new interest rate modelling framework is evolving based on OIS discounting and integrated CVA. Pricing a single currency interest rate swap now takes into account the difference between projected rates such as Euribor that include credit risk and the rates appropriate for discounting cash flows that are risk free or based on funding cost. This approach is referred to as dual curve, OIS discounting, or CSA discounting and forces a re-derivation of derivatives valuation from first principles. In addition, the counterparty credit risk of (uncollateralised) OTC transactions are measured as a credit valuation adjustment (CVA) which takes into account the likelihood the counterparty will default, along with expected exposures, volatility of these expected exposures, and wrong way risk. In this paper we will focus on OIS discounting as part of this new interest rate modelling framework.
  • 4. Interest Rate modelling prior to the credit crisis Prior to the credit crisis, interest rate derivatives were valued with models that focused on the dynamics and term structure of interest rates but generally ignored other elements including: • Credit risk • Liquidity risk • Collateral agreements • Funding costs Since the introduction of Black-Scholes in 1973, interest rate modelling has evolved steadily. There have been several key milestones with the most recent evolutions prior to the credit crisis relating to volatility skew modelling. Figure 1: Key milestones in the history of interest rate modelling Valuing a single currency vanilla interest rate swap involved calculating forward rates and discounting expected cash flows from a single interest rate curve based on no-arbitrage assumptions. These curves were calibrated from liquid interest rate products including money market securities, Eurodollar futures, FRAs, and interest rate swaps. A common reference rate for Euro denominated swaps is the Euro Interbank Offer Rate (Euribor). Euribor rates are published 11am Central European Time each day and are calculated as the average (excluding the top and bottom 15%) offer rates from over 40 contributing banks for Euro Interbank deposits. 15 different maturities are published. These deposits are unsecured but prior to the credit crisis were considered a proxy for a risk-free rate. Similar interbank deposit rates are calculated for other currencies.
  • 5. The key modelling components are curve construction, pricing, and risk management. Curve construction 1. Select a set of liquid interest rate securities. For example – EUR deposits, Euribor futures and Euribor swaps 2. Make selections for the handling of overlapping securities, interpolation methods and seasonality effects 3. Fit a single yield curve using bootstrapping, tension splines, or other fitting methods Figure 2: Calibrating an interest rate curve in a single curve valuation framework (source Quantifi) Figure 2 shows a typical calibration screen where funding rates, money market rates, FRAs and Swap rates are combined to calibrate a discount curve.
  • 6. Pricing 1. Calculate expected future floating coupon payments of the floating leg of the swap by calculating the forward rate 2. Calculate the expected value of the floating leg of the swap by present valuing each of the expected cashflows Figure 3: Pricing an off-market interest rate swap in a single curve valuation framework (source Quantifi)
  • 7. Figure 3 shows a typical pricing screen for an off-market interest rate swap. The net interest rate sensitivity shown as Net IR01 is the change in the mark-to-market value of the swap if interest rates increase by one basis point. Note that under this pricing framework, a floater will price to par. Risk Management 1. Calculate the sensitivity of expected value of the swap to changes in the yield curve 2. Calculate the sensitivity of the chosen liquid hedge securities to changes in the yield curve to determine the correct hedge ratios 3. Hedge the swap with with the chosen hedge securities. For example, an off market Euribor swap may be hedged with a combination of liquid at-market Euribor swaps Figure 4: Hedging analysis for an off-market interest rate swap in a single curve valuation framework (source Quantifi) Figure 4 shows the interest rate sensitivity by tenor for an off market interest rate swap of roughly 8 ½ years maturity. The appropriate hedge is a combination of liquid at-market 8 year and 9 year interest rate swaps.
  • 8. Impact of the Credit Crisis on the Rates Market As the credit crisis unfolded, there were significant impacts on the structure and dynamics of the rates market. Credit and liquidity drove segmentation and rates that were previously closely related diverged, causing a rethink of how these rates should be modelled. Basis swap spreads increased dramatically A basis swap is an interest rate swap where the parties exchange floating rate payments of different tenors. For example, a swap where one party pays Euribor 3M + a spread and the other party pays Euribor 6M. The swaps are quoted in terms of the spread. Figure 5: Euribor 3M Vs 6M Basis Swap Reflecting the different credit risk and market segmentation between different Euribor rate tenors, basis swap spreads blew out during the crisis from being fractions of a basis point (where they had been quoted for decades) to double digits in a matter of months. In Figure 6 we see a graph of the Basis Swap Spreads for 3M Vs 6M Euribor of 1Y maturity. The 3M Vs 6M Euribor Basis swap spread went from under a basis point to peak at over 44bp around October 2008, after the Lehman default. Figure 6: 3M Vs 6M Euribor 1 year basis swap spreads (source Bloomberg) This divergence is again a reflection of different credit and liquidity risks between these indices. The longer term deposits (6M) carry more credit risk than the shorter (3M) deposits.
  • 9. OIS and LIBOR swap rates diverged Overnight Index Swaps are swaps with a fixed leg versus a floating rate leg that is indexed to an overnight rate. For Euros, the OIS swap is indexed to the Eonia rate. The Eonia rate is a weighted (by volume) average of all overnight unsecured lending transactions in the European interbank market. The contributing banks are the same as those contributing to the Euribor index and the index is calculated and published by the European Central Bank (ECB). Other currencies have similar reference rates – for example the Fed Funds rate in the US. These rates are typically targeted by the respective central banks as a part of monetary policy. In Europe, the Eonia trades between the Deposit Facility rate and the Margin Lending Facility rates set by the ECB. The daily tenor of the Eonia transactions means that these rates carry negligible credit and liquidity risk. The spread between Euribor Deposits and the Eonia OIS rates blew out through the credit crisis. Figure 7 shows a graph of the spread between the Euribor 6M deposit rate and the 6M Eonia OIS rate. Figure 7: Euribor 6M Deposit rate Vs 6M Eonia OIS rate (source Bloomberg) The basis widened dramatically from under 10 basis points to peak at 222.5 basis points around Lehman’s default in October 2008. The Euribor/Eonia spread has persisted even after the credit crisis and reflects the revised view of the different credit and liquidity characteristics between these two rates. The Eonia rate has now become the market standard proxy for a EUR market risk-free rate.
  • 10. The relationship between forward rates of different tenors diverged. Prior to the credit crisis there were small but generally negligible differences between forward rates implied from interest rate products of different tenors. No-arbitrage arguments held and a 6 month rate implied from a 3 month rate and a 3x6 month forward would match. As the credit crisis continued, the market segmented and this previously arbitrage-free relationship broke down. Figure 8: 3x6M forward rates implied by 3M and 6M Euribor Vs 3x6M FRA and Euribor 6M deposit Vs 6M rate implied by Euribor 3M and 0x3M FRA. (Source Banca IMI) Figure 8 shows two examples of the divergence between implied rates from different tenors. This segmentation meant that you could no longer price swaps paying a 3M floating rate coupon using curves calibrated from swaps paying 6M floating rate coupons. Increased use of Collateral Agreements Another effect of the credit crisis has been a dramatic increase in the use of collateral agreements as a method of managing counterparty risk. The 2010 ISDA Margin Survey reports that 70 percent of OTC derivatives net credit exposure worldwide is covered by collateral, compared with 29 percent in 2003. Collateral agreements provide a margining facility whereby parties in an OTC transaction post or receive margin on a regular basis to mitigate counterparty risk. The Credit Support Annex (CSA) is a part of the standard International Swaps and Dealers Association (ISDA) master agreement that provides the legal framework for OTC derivative trades between two parties. The margining facility is similar to that used by a clearing house and provides for posting of collateral based on a calculated mark-to-market valuation for a transaction. The collateral can be cash or assets of the same value. The holder of the collateral pays an interest rate called the ‘collateral rate’. Under default, the collateral is available to the holder to cover the net market value owed. The collateral agreement typically allows for netting across all trades covered by that ISDA master agreement. Typical collateral agreements provide for daily collateral calls and a collateral rate such as Eonia, Fed Funds, Sterling overnight index average (Sonia) or Jibar.
  • 11. The New Interest Rate Modelling Paradigm Clearly the credit crisis had a significant impact on the interest rates market. A large part of this related to the increased importance of credit and liquidity risk along with structural changes such as an increased use of collateral agreements. These changes have driven a profound shift in the way all OTC products are valued and risk managed. The result has been an abandonment of the classic derivatives pricing framework based on single interest rate curves and the introduction of a new approach that takes into account current interest rate dynamics and market segmentation using multiple curves. Dual curve/OIS discounting The old-style no-arbitrage, single-curve derivatives valuation framework where Euribor was a reasonable proxy for a risk-neutral discount rate has been permanently changed by the credit crisis. An understanding of the credit risk embedded in Euribor and similar rates and an increased importance in the modelling of funding have driven a separation between the index rates used for the floating legs of the swap (the projection rates) and the appropriate rates used for present value (the discount rates). The market-standard rate to discount future cash flows is now OIS rates. The method of projecting rates using Euribor and discounting rates using Eonia changes the fundamental framework for existing derivative modelling. It has required a rethink from first principles that continues to be discussed and refined. Pricing and risk managing even a vanilla single currency swap has become significantly more complex. Curve construction, pricing and hedging now involve multiple instruments and additional basis risks. These complexities compound for interest rate products such as cross currency swaps, Caps/Floors and Swaptions. Funding cost The debate about what are appropriate discount rates is still in progress. The role of funding and funding costs is a complex one. The impact of different market participants funding costs, the uncertainty in some institutions about measuring funding costs, and the impact of LVA are the subject of current academic and market debate. Counterparty risk and CVA A broader and evolving understanding of valuing and managing counterparty credit risk was well underway before the credit crisis. Many of the larger global banks had been actively measuring and managing counterparty credit risk many years prior to the crisis. The crisis, however, dramatically increased the focus for market participants as well as regulators and accelerated the impact on the broader OTC markets. The measurement and management of counterparty risk is now something that impacts all market participants. Accurate valuation of OTC products now requires accurate valuation of the credit component of each transaction. In addition, regulatory initiatives such as Basel III and Solvency II, along with accounting rules such as ASC 820 (FAS 157) and IAS 39 have mandated more accurate counterparty risk valuation and risk management. The larger banks have led the evolution of valuing and managing counterparty credit risk. Over time they have converged to generally consistent methods and processes. The concept of a Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) is now widely accepted and consistently calculated across the markets. OTC transactions that carry counterparty exposure executed by all the larger institutions now have a CVA component as part of the valuation. An accurate CVA calculation takes into account all transactions in the portfolio with that counterparty as well as any netting agreements, CSAs and collateral.
  • 12. Dual Curve OIS Discounting Curve Construction Following the credit crisis, interest rate derivatives are now valued with models that reflect the observed market segmentation, counterparty risk, and interest rate dynamics. Valuing a single currency vanilla interest rate swap involves calculating forward rates based on Euribor rate curves and discounting expected cash flows using Eonia rates. As in the single-curve case, these curves are calibrated from liquid interest rate products. For the EUR curves this includes money market securities, futures, FRAs, IONA swaps, basis swaps and interest rate swaps. The process is complicated, however, by changes to the modelling principles around calculating the expected forward rates. These forward rates must be conditional on the Eonia rates used for discounting. Curve construction 1. Select a set of liquid interest rate securities for each curve. 2. The Eonia interest rate curve is fitted to Eonia rates including deposits and OIS swap spreads. As with single-curve interest rate curve construction, key issues include – Selection of curve instruments – Convexity adjustments for Future prices – Overlapping securities – Seasonal effects – Interpolation methods (fit Vs smoothness) 3. In addition there are specific complexities relating to bootstrapping the Eonia curve including – Modelling the step nature and key policy dates for central bank target rates – Dealing with less liquid tenors – Bootstrapping longer dated parts of the curve from swap spreads 4. Fit the Euribor interest rate curve conditional on the Eonia interest rate curve. This calibration needs to be carefully done to provide robust and accurate matching of Euribor swap rates. For example, the resulting curve should reprice a standard Euribor interest rate swap at par. Pricing 1. Calculate expected future floating coupon payments of the floating leg of the swap by calculating the forward rate
  • 13. 2. Calculated the expected value of the floating leg of the swap by present valuing each of the expected cash flows Figure 9: Single currency interest rate swap pricing under dual curve (source Quantifi) Figure 9 shows a typical pricing screen for an off-market interest rate swap. In addition to the Euribor rate sensitivity (Net IR 01), there is an additional basis risk Vs Eonia rates (Net Spread 01) introduced. Note that under this pricing framework, an at-market floater will not price to par.
  • 14. Risk Management 1. Calculate the sensitivity of expected value of the swap to changes in the forward rate curve 2. Calculate the sensitivity of expected value of the swap to changes in the discount rate curve 3. Calculate the sensitivity of the chosen hedge securities to changes in the interest curves to determine the correct hedge ratios. 4. Hedge the swap with the chosen hedge securities. For example an off market Euribor swap may be hedged by a combination of liquid at-market Euribor swaps and a combination of at-market Eonia OIS swaps. Posting collateral in multiple currencies In many cases, CSA agreements provide for posting of collateral in one of several currencies. This adds a level of complexity to the selecting of the appropriate discount curve to use and adds a degree of optionality that is difficult to model. Often these effects are managed on an ad-hoc basis. Figure 10: Interest rate risk for a single currency swap priced using OIS discounting (source Quantifi)
  • 15. Figure 11: Basis swap risk for a single currency interest rate swap using OIS Discounting (source Quantifi) Dual currency pricing of Cross Currency Swaps Historically, cross currency swaps were priced based on a single interest rate curve for each currency, a cross currency basis spread, and the current spot FX quote. Depending on the currency pair, different methods of calibration would be used to take advantage of the most liquid markets and quotes (for example, foreign swap rates Vs FX forwards). Dual curve pricing of cross currency swaps adds challenges in terms of the relationship between the appropriate discount curves, projection curves, and cross currency basis. One method for calibrating the interest rate curves for a fixed/floating cross currency swap is: • Select a set of liquid interest rate securities for each curve • Fit the OIS discount curves for each currency • Fit the LIBOR projection curves for the floating rate currency conditional on the OIS discount curves • Adjust the floating rate projection curve based on cross currency basis swap rates
  • 16. Figure 12 shows the process flow for calibrating interest rate curves for valuing a USD/EUR fixed/floating cross currency swap. The EUR leg is discounted using the Eonia curve. The USD leg would be projected using the cross-currency basis adjusted LIBOR interest rate curve and discounted using the Fed Funds curve. Figure 12: Cross currency curve construction in a dual curve valuation framework The calibration process shown here is simplified. The calibration and pricing processes have significant implications for the hedging and risk management of these products and need to be carefully thought through.
  • 17. Moving to integrated dual curve OIS discounting and CVA There is clear evidence that the market has moved to valuing interest rate swaps using OIS discounting and integrated CVA. The move towards central clearing and standardised products has accelerated this trend and the recent press release from the London Clearing House (LCH.Clearnet) is a very clear testimony to this wider adoption. “LCH.Clearnet Ltd (LCH.Clearnet), which operates the world’s leading interest rate swap (IRS) clearing service, SwapClear, is to begin using the overnight index swap (OIS) rate curves to discount its $218 trillion IRS portfolio. Previously, in line with market practice, the portfolio was discounted using LIBOR. However, an increasing proportion of trades are now priced using OIS discounting. After extensive consultation with market participants, LCH.Clearnet has decided to move to OIS to ensure the most accurate valuation of its portfolio for risk management purposes.” LCH’s decision to move to OIS discounting reflected the fact that most swaps cleared through their system were subject to standard CSAs with daily collateral calls and a collateral rate based on OIS rates. The large market-making banks are now pricing using OIS discounting and their margining and collateral systems are being converted to also reflect this practice. Conclusion A new generation of interest rate modelling is evolving. An approach based on dual curve pricing and integrated CVA has become the market consensus. There is compelling evidence that the market for interest rate products has moved to pricing on this basis, but not all market participants are at the stage were existing legacy valuation and risk management systems are up to date. The changes required for existing systems are significant and present many challenges in an environment where efficient use of capital at the business line level is becoming increasingly important.
  • 18. ABOUT QUANTIFI Quantifi is a leading provider of analytics, trading and risk management software for the Global Capital Markets. Our suite of integrated pre and post-trade solutions allow market participants to better value, trade and risk manage their exposures and respond more effectively to changing market conditions. Founded in 2002, Quantifi has over 120 top-tier clients including five of the six largest global banks, two of the three largest asset managers, leading hedge funds, insurance companies, pension funds and other financial institutions across 15 countries. Renowned for our client focus, depth of experience and commitment to innovation, Quantifi is consistently first-to- market with intuitive, award-winning solutions. For further information, please visit www.quantifisolutions.com CONTACT QUANTIFI EUROPE NORTH AMERICA ASIA PACIFIC 16 Martin’s Le Grand 230 Park Avenue 111 Elizabeth St. London, EC1A 4EN New York, NY 10169 Sydney, NSW, 2000 +44 (0) 20 7397 8788 +1 (212) 784-6815 +61 (02) 9221 0133 enquire@quantifisolutions.com