Economics, Commerce and Trade Management: An International Journal (ECTIJ)
2008-06-12 Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference, Berlin
1. Goldman Sachs European Financials
Conference
Panel: “Adapting the model: The originate and distribute
model of the future”
Berlin, Germany
June 12, 2008
David Mathers, Head of IB Finance
2. Cautionary statement
Cautionary statement regarding forward-looking and non-GAAP information
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Forward-looking statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, and we might not be
able to achieve the predictions, forecasts, projections and other outcomes we describe
or imply in forward-looking statements.
A number of important factors could cause results to differ materially from the plans,
objectives, expectations, estimates and intentions we express in these forward-looking
statements, including those we identify in quot;Risk Factorsquot; in our Annual Report on Form
20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2007 filed with the US Securities and
Exchange Commission, and in other public filings and press releases.
We do not intend to update these forward-looking statements except as may be required
by applicable laws.
This presentation contains non-GAAP financial information. Information needed to
reconcile such non-GAAP financial information to the most directly comparable measures
under GAAP can be found in Credit Suisse Group's first quarter report 2008.
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 2
3. Earnings Power
Disciplined Approach to Risk Reduction
Strong Capital and Liquidity Position
Adapting the Model: The Originate and Distribute
Model of the Future
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 3
4. Credit Suisse has significant earnings power
Benefit from a diversified and integrated global business
Private Banking continues to deliver good results
Solid results across most Investment Banking and Asset Management
businesses, masked by valuation reductions
Well positioned to create long-term value and seize
opportunities that arise from market dislocation
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 4
5. A diversified earnings mix
Private Banking Investment Banking Asset Management
CHF m
2,502
1,439 1,990
1,381 1,377 1,324
1,289
1)
527
1)
191
299
257 1)
6 45 98
(247)
(468)
(849)
(3,460)
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
! Stable results in challenging ! Most businesses performing well; ! Stable recurring management fees
environment some at record levels ! Strong performance across most
! Good asset inflows and hiring ! Significant writedowns in leveraged businesses
momentum for Relationship finance and structured products ! Valuation adjustments on our money
Managers market assets
! Continued international expansion
1) Before losses from securities purchased from our money market funds
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 5
6. Fixed income revenues outside most affected areas
at same level as very strong 1Q07
Fixed income trading and debt underwriting revenues
CHF m
! Negative revenues in 1Q08
driven by valuation reductions in
structured products and
1,226 leveraged finance
4,325
1,659 1,647 ! Very strong results in global
rates and FX
! Strong results in emerging
markets and proprietary trading
! 1Q08 adjusted revenues include
(1,440)
fair value reductions of CHF 0.5
Add back
bn on corporate loan book
1Q08 Deduct 1Q08 1Q07
structured
revenues 1Q08 fair adjusted adjusted 2)
products and value revenues revenues
leveraged finance gains on
revenues 1) own debt
1) Total structured products and leveraged finance revenues excluding valuation adjustments of CHF 709 m reported in 'Other' revenues
2) Excluding revenues from structured products and leveraged finance businesses and converted into Swiss francs applying the 1Q08 average exchange rate to adjust for foreign exchange rate impact
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 6
7. Equity trading with solid performance in light of market
conditions
Equity trading net revenues
CHF m
! Stable client-related businesses
! Good results in the global cash business
driven by higher trading volumes,
increased client flows and strong AES
performance
2,475
2,171 2,068
! Prime Services achieved record revenues
1,379
in 1Q08 with strong growth in client
1,037
balances and new client mandates
! Losses in equity proprietary trading in
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
1Q08 compared to a strong 1Q07
AES = Advanced Execution Services, our electronic trading platform
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 7
8. Disciplined approach to cost management in Investment
Bank
General & administrative expenses
CHF m
! Flexibility of cost base positions us well
in current markets and going forward
941
864
827
! Continued focus on reducing G&A
803 748
expense
(10)%
! Despite headcount growth, G&A
expense trend shows improvement
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 8
9. Continued revenue diversification
Prime Services Quarterly Revenue Growth
! Record quarter with increased client balances and
new client mandates
125%
− Our chargeable balances are up 59% from the
beginning of 2007
! Credit Suisse viewed as a strong counterparty and
a “safe haven” in this market given strength and
stability of funding and liquidity
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
Life Finance Quarterly Revenue Growth
! Dominant market position in trading and
distributing both longevity and mortality risk
! Trading in both physical (life settlements, premium
446% finance) and synthetic (swaps, structured notes)
forms
! Expanding internationally (Europe in 2008, Asia in
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
2009)
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 9
10. Growing collaboration revenues
2007 collaboration revenues Key collaboration initiatives
in CHF bn and growth % vs. 2006
! Asset referrals
CHF 3.1 bn 1 ! Structured Investment Products
+5% 2 ! UHNW client solutions
Private Asset
! Increase penetration of Managed
Banking Management
Investment Products
2 ! Product innovation
CHF 2.3 bn CHF 0.5 bn
! Private Equity/Hedge Fund distribution
+43% 1 +54% 3
! Alternative investments distribution
Investment
! Pension / Insurance solutions
3
Banking
! Fund linked products & Hedge Fund
referrals
Grow collaboration revenues from CHF 5.9 bn in 2007
to over CHF 10 bn in 2010 (+20% p.a.)
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 10
11. Earnings Power
Disciplined Approach to Risk Reduction
Strong Capital and Liquidity Position
Adapting the Model: The Originate and Distribute
Model of the Future
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 11
12. Significant progress in reducing risk positions
Exposures and writedowns in CHF bn
Leveraged finance Commercial mortgages
Net writedowns: Net writedowns:
Origination- 59 2007 (0.8) 2007 (0.6)
-64% -46%
1Q08 (1.7) 1Q08 (0.8)
36
based
35 26
19
21
(exposures
Funded
shown gross)
Unfunded
3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
Residential mortgages 1) CDO trading 2)
Net writedowns: Net writedowns:
Trading- 2007 (0.5) 2007 (1.3)
-66% -70%
16 1Q08 (0.1) 1Q08 (2.7)
2.3
based 3.9
1.6
9
(exposures 1.6
6 0.7
shown net) Subprime
1.1
Other
3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
3Q07 4Q07 1Q08
1) All non-agency business, including higher quality segments; global total 2) Year-end positions related to US subprime; total IB subprime is CHF 3.2 bn (across RMBS & CDOs)
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 12
13. Earnings Power
Disciplined Approach to Risk Reduction
Strong Capital and Liquidity Position
Adapting the Model: The Originate and Distribute
Model of the Future
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 13
14. Maintained strong capital position following transition to
Basel II
! Weakening of US dollar reduces both risk-
BIS Tier 1 ratio in %
weighted assets and capital position
Risk-weighted assets in CHF bn
! Managed to grow capital without having to
13.9
dilute existing shareholders
13.0 12.0
11.1
11.3
10.0 9.8
− Issued CHF 1.5 bn of hybrid tier 1 capital
! Reduced share repurchase activity
324
312 301
299
296
254 ! Strong capital base and conservative liquidity
233
position as competitive advantage
(7)%
! Continue to prudently manage our balance
sheet, exposures and capital
2005 2006 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 4Q07 1Q08
Basel I Basel II
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 14
15. Earnings Power
Disciplined Approach to Risk Reduction
Strong Capital and Liquidity Position
Adapting the Model: The Originate and Distribute
Model of the Future
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 15
16. Adapting the model: The originate and distribute model of the
future
Changing competitive landscape
Shrinking universe of buyers, particularly in Europe
Reduced market size / simpler deal structures – “Back to the Future”
Higher proportion of deals retained capital cost implications / regulation?
Credit Suisse is well positioned when business recovers
due to franchise leadership and world class distribution
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 16
17. Revenue by business as a % of Credit Suisse Group revenues
2007 Credit Suisse Revenue1) 2006 Credit Suisse Revenue1)
Leveraged Finance C DO
C M BS
CMBS RM BS
3% 2% Leveraged Finance
4%
1% Asset Management 3%
7%
7%
Private Banking
33%
Private Banking
Investment Banking (ex.
39% Investm ent
CMBS and Lev Fin)
Banking (ex. SP
50%
and Lev Fin)
43%
Asset M anagem ent
8%
! RMBS, CMBS and Leveraged Finance are important businesses for Credit Suisse
Group
! However, IB has substantially diversified its business portfolio over the last five years,
both broadening its FID franchise and developing the market position, breadth and
financial performance of its Equity business
1) Based on Core Results
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 17
18. Adapting the model: Leveraged finance
! Fewer competitors, more rational
Competitive Landscape marketplace
! Changing buyer universe
! Average exposures (and resulting revenues)
“Back to the Future” will come down
! Target portfolio exposure $15-20bn
! Less aggressive deal structures
Implications for Credit Suisse Model
! Time to market / time to exit
Portfolio Management Orientation
! Probability of closing
! Managing distribution
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 18
19. Adapting the model: CMBS
! Shrinking investor base
Competitive Landscape
! Significant opportunities in emerging
markets, especially in Asia
! Liquidity recovering in US; European
markets remain slow
! Gradual ramp up in origination activity
“Back to the Future”
! Industry-wide focus on credit quality of
underlying real estate collateral
Implications for Credit Suisse Model
! Exit strategy: less reliance on securitization,
Structural Changes more on syndications, loan sales and private
placements
! Possibly need to retain higher percent of
capital structure to facilitate transactions with
consequent capital implications
! Credit Suisse has the people, industry
expertise and distribution in place
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 19
20. Adapting the model: RMBS
! Number of competitors down due to higher
Competitive Landscape capital costs of originate to distribute
! Non-agency market collapsed / conduit
model (originate to securitize) is gone
! Only portfolio lenders are originating
! Remaining players distressed trading and
agency lending
! Limited buyer universe
! Late 1990s issuance levels (approximately
“Back to the Future” half 2006 levels)
! Plain vanilla products / LTVs coming down
Implications for Credit Suisse Model
! Securitizations will re-emerge first for
Structural Changes portfolio lenders
! Retain a more significant portion of the risk
with consequent capital implications
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 20
21. Current market conditions validate Credit Suisse strategy
Importance of geographic and product diversity
Value of franchise leadership
Use of ERC model and appropriate charging for capital
Integrated Bank as differentiator
Importance of strong capital and liquidity position
Well positioned to create long-term value and seize
opportunities that arise from market dislocation
Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference
Slide 21