2. Industry Overview
Sector: Services Sector: Consumer Goods
Industry: Apparel Stores Industry: Textile – Apparel Clothing
Market Cap.: $5.17bn $12.08bn
Market Cap.: $12.08bn
Specialty Retailer: X 2.3 Premium Lifestyle Products:
Casual Sportswear Apparel Clothing Apparel
Personal Care Products Accessories
Accessories Fragrances
Home Furnishing
Targets:
Targets:
Men, Women & Kids
Men, Women & Kids
Mainly Teenagers
3. Past Year’s Major Event
Closing of Ruehl division
Recession / Expensive Clothes Prices
$58M Pretax Loss for Ruehl in 2008
A&F refused lowering prices during 2009 first months
Overall sales -28% in May yoy (-33% for Ruehl)
4. Current Economic Situation
“U.S. retail sales climb
4.2% in February
beating expectations
for a 3.6% rise yoy”
LATimes.com
+4.2%
5. Market Share
Market Share compared to S&P 2009 Teens Buying Behavior in
500's Overall Revenues Clothing Industry ($bn)
12.2
8,000
7,000 Teens Income
6,000 Teens Buying Behavior
(Spending in Clothing)
5,000 91.1
2008 (for
Q.2, Q.3, & Q.4)
4,000
2009 (for Teens Spendings as % of 2009
Q.1, Q.2, & Q.3)
3,000
Overall Retail Clothing Industry
12.2 Revenue
2,000
Teens Buying Behavior
(Spending in Clothing)
1,000
Overall Retail Clothing
0 Industry (Revenue)
S&P 500 ($bn) Abercrombie & Polo Ralph
Fitch Co. Lauren Co. 150
6. Stores Location by Continent
Europe, Polo Ralph Lauren
Abercrombie & Fitch
1.4% Europe, Asia, 1.3
Asia, 0.1 49.5% %
%
North North
America, America,
98.5% 49.2%
7. EUR/USD Weekly
Fiscal Year 2009
Open: 1.2962 Close: 1.4141
8. Revenue By Area
2009
International
International
8%
United States Europe; Asia;
30.5%
/ Canada 21.1% 9.2%
69.5%
Other
Regions
0.1%
United
States; 92%
15. Similar Marketing Strategies
High Competition:
Constant changes in products
Constant design renewal (fashion perpetuity)
Quality, design, brand, and image-focusing:
products quality
long-term similarity in design, style
advertising similarity (magazines, e-marketing)
seasonal marketing campaigns (Spring & Fall)
large products availability
corporate image
brand affiliation
Price segmentation:
Ralph Lauren and Abercrombie & Fitch can both be competitors (or not)
according to the prices they practice onto the market
16. Product Differentiation
Home Line
Men’s, Women’s, & Kid’s Clothes Men’s Clothes
Fragrances
Watches
Accessories Fragrances Women’s
&
Kid’s
Clothes
17. Teen Market
Establish fashion and overall trends and express specific lifestyles
A representation of present/future society
Big buying potential = discretionary income
Spend household’s money / Influence households’ buying behaviors
Importance of physical appearance
Constancy (even progression) of teens’ spendings thanks to constancy
(even progression) of received ‘’income’’
Constancy on same-targets spending (the 3 C’s)
18. Different Marketing Strategies
vs.
Similarity among time Continual
trademarks’ own styles
, keeping the
same style among time
Prices, styles, and consumer-focusing
Consumer-confidence focusing
Lowering the importance of Among trademarks diversification
advertising and basing its
marketing strategy Ambiance-similarity between
products, lifestyles, and shops
Keeping Ralph Lauren’s and
Less consumer-targeting among products
Much and shops design and lifestyles
product, style, and lifestyle orientations
through only 4
trademarks Advertising diversification
Through famous magazines &
fashion shows
19. Different Marketing Approaches
Low Higher average
Much higher importance given
to
(less
sophisticated in design)
Larger consumer
Smaller consumer targeting Larger of
trademarks
Very
(only 2.55% of A&F Bigger
stores are located outside the (8,940 doors around the world)
United States)
37. Comparative Ratios - 2009
ANF RL
Liquidity
Current 2.75 W 3.05 B
Quick 2.06 W 2.37 B
Profitability
ROA 0.01% W 10.31% B
ROE 0.01% W 15.39% B
ROS 0.01% W 10.00% B
Turnover
Receivables Turnover 32.23 B 12.56 W
Asset Turnover 1.04 W 2.11 B
Inventory Turnover 9.43 W 9.51 B
17 Worse
Leverage
TIE 0.00 B 31.84 W
D/A 35.22% W 32.96% B
D/E 54.38% W 49.17% B
Cash Management
DSO 11.17 W 28.67 B 17 Better
ICD 38.19 W 37.84 B
APD 18.46 W 11.25 B
CCC 30.90 W 55.26 B
Market Value
Market Cap. $5.17 Billion W $12.08 Billion B
EPS 3.05 W 4.01 B
Payout Ratio 23% B 17% W
Productivity
Sales/Employee $ 154,138 W $ 252,395 B
Ni/Employee $ 13 W $ 25,237 B
38. Reuters Ratio
Abercrombie Polo Ralph % Difference
% Difference Sector % Difference
& Fitch Lauren ANF/RL
Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 44.60 560%
560% 7.97 261%
261% 20.81 214% 214%
P/E High 35.40 83% 42.81 55% 23.66 150%
P/E Low 5.17 50% 10.42 106% 11.05 47%
Price to Sales 1.59 162% 0.98 226% 2.21 72%
Price to Book 2.81 426% 0.66 547% 3.61 78%
Price to Tangible
Book 2.80
350%
350% 0.80
760%
760% 6.08 46%
217%
Price to Cash
Flow 14.93 407% 3.67 420% 15.41 97%
Price to Free Cash
Flow 52.14
420%
420% 12.41
255%
255% 31.62 165%
165%
Dividends
Payout Ratio 51.80 620%
620% 8.36 117%
86% 7.15 724% 724%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1.57 291%
291% 0.54 424%
424% 2.29 69% 146%
Current Ratio 2.51 369% 0.68 466% 3.17 79%
LT Debt to Equity 4.42 410%
24% 18.15 225%
44% 8.06 55% 182%
Total Debt to
739% 405% 182%
Equity 4.42 14% 32.68 25% 8.06 55%
Interest Coverage N/A - 0.17 23 971%
23 971% 40.75 N/A
44. Dupont Equation
Abercrombie & Fitch Polo Ralph Lauren
($ Millions) ($ Millions)
2009 2008 2009 2008
Net Income 0.25 272.26 Net Income 479.50 406.00
Sales 2,928.63 3,484.06 Sales 4,978.90 5,018.90
Total Assets 2,821.87 2,848.18 Total Assets 4,648.90 4,356.50
Owner's Equity 1,827.92 1,845.58 Owner's Equity 3,116.60 2,735.10
ROS x TAT x EM = ROE
NI/SALES SALES/TA TA/Stockholders' Equity NI/Stockholders' Equity
2008 7,81 1,22 1,54 14,8
ANF 2009 0 1,04 1,54 0,0
Change -100% -15% 0% -100%
2008 8,09 1,15 1,59 14,8
RL 2009 9,63 1,07 1,49 15,4
Change 19% -7% -6% 4%
45. DuPont Equation Analysis
Abercrombie & Fitch Polo Ralph Lauren
NI : -100% NI : +19% Sales : -0.7%
Ratios VariationsSales : -15.9%
Status Ratios Variations Status
ROS Worse TAT :ROS
-7% Better
TA : +7%
TAT : -15% TA : -1%
TAT Worse EM :TAT
-6% Worse
OE : +13.95%
EM : 1.54 => 0%
EM ROE : - 100% Worse EM ROE : +4% Better
ROE Worse ROE Better
46. Capital Expenditures
$M (except %) Long-Lived Assets Sales Sales % to Long-Lived Assets Change in Sales % Assets
Segments 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 % Millions of $
United States 1,138 1,372 2,566 3,220 225.5% 234.7% -3.9% -44.7
International 194
194 8080 363 264
363 264 187.1%
187.1% 330.0%
330.0% -43.3%
-43.3% -84.0
Total 1,332 1,452 2,929 3,484 219.9% 239.9% -8.4% -111.3
+142.5% +37.5% -1429 bps
$M (except %) Long-Lived Assets Sales Sales % to Long-Lives Assets Change in Sales % Assets
Segments +25.4%
2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 % Millions of $
United States &
441.6 452.8 3,462.3 3,589.3 784.0% 792.7% -1.1% -4.8
Canada
Europe 166.4 132.7
166.4 132.7 1,052.6 1,028.4 632.6% 775.0% -18.4% -30.6
+29.4%
Asia 84.1 60.9
84.1 60.9 459.7 392.6 546.6% 644.7% -15.2% -12.8
Other regions 5.1 5.2 4.3 8.6 84.3% 165.4% -49.0% -2.5
Total 697.2 651.6 4,978.9 5,018.9 714.1% 770.2% -7.3% -50.8
+38.0%
53. Dividend History
“Since 2003, the Company has
maintained a regular quarterly cash
“A quarterly dividend of $0.175 per
dividend program on its common stock.
share, was paid in
March, June, September and On November 4, 2009,
December of Fiscal 2007, Fiscal the Company’s Board of Directors
approved an increase to the Company’s
2008 and Fiscal 2009. A&F expects
quarterly cash dividend on its common
to continue to pay a
stock from $0.05 per
dividend, subject to the Board of
Directors’ review of the Company’s share to $0.10 per share.
cash position and results of Approximately $30 million was
recorded as a reduction to retained
operations.”
earnings during Fiscal 2010 in
connection
with the Company’s dividends.”
59. Abercrombie & Fitch’s Employee
Savings Plan
Code Section 401(k) feature retirement savings plan
All US associates eligible (low participation rate)
‘’ The Company offers a life insurance benefit for all full-time employees equal to 2-times
base salary. For Vice Presidents and above, the death benefit is set at four-times base salary. ‘’
The Company’s contributions are based on a percentage of associates’ eligible annual
compensation.
‘’ Allows executive officers to defer a portion of their compensation over-and-above the
Internal Revenue Service ‘’
‘’ For Vice Presidents and above, the Company offers a life insurance benefit set at 4-times
base salary. ‘’
Matching and Retirement Contributions
Allows participants the opportunity to save and invest their own money as a
percentage of their pay
61. Polo Ralph Lauren
Employee Benefit Plans
Profit Sharing Retirement Savings Plans
(Non-Qualified) Supplemental Retirement Plan
amended for Fiscal 2009 $18M to affected participants during 1st Q. 2010
62. Polo Ralph Lauren
Employee Benefit Plans (cont’d)
Deferred Compensation Plans
$3M Fiscal 2009 + Fiscal 2010
Union Pension Plan
64. Risks
Polo Ralph Lauren
The loss of the services
Financial instability
Economic crisis’ effects
exclusive relationship with certain customers
65. Insider/Institutional Trading
Percentage and Names
Abercrombie & Fitch Polo Ralph Lauren
Breakdown Breakdown
% of Shares Held by All Insider and 5% % of Shares Held by All Insider and 5%
Owners: 5% Owners: 0%
% of Shares Held by Institutional & Mutual % of Shares Held by Institutional & Mutual
Fund Owners: 100% Fund Owners: 104%
% of Float Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund % of Float Held by Institutional & Mutual
Owners: 106% Fund Owners: 104%
Number of Institutions Holding Shares: 309 Number of Institutions Holding Shares: 304
Top Institutional Holders % Out Top Institutional Holders % Out
FMR LLC 11.05 FMR LLC 10.99
Columbia Wanger Asset Management, L.P. 6.49 Jennison Associates LLC 9.19
Vanguard Group, Inc. (The) 4.99 Lone Pine Capital, LLC 5.31
Bank of New York Mellon Corporation 4.13 Vanguard Group, Inc. (The) 4.98
Pennant Capital Management, LLC 3.83 Wells Fargo & Company 4.76
State Street Corporation 3.83 State Street Corporation 3.51
Massachusetts Financial Services Co - Other 3.82 Artisan Partners Limited Partnership 3.3
Orbis Holdings Ltd 3.33 Goldman Sachs Group Inc 3.02
Maverick Capital Ltd. 2.54 Franklin Resources, Inc 2.56
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. 2.46 BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. 2.41
66. Zones of Discrimination:
Z > 2.6 -“Safe” Zone
Altman Z Score 1.1 < Z < 2.6 -“Grey” Zone
Z < 1.1 -“Distress” Zone
+64,74%
+477%
-76,55% +17.33%
ANF RL
In Millions ($), except Share Prices
2009 2008 2009 2008
EBIT 119.5 119.5 509.6
+212% 509.6 689.3
689.30 587.5
587.50
Total Assets 2,821.9
2,821.9 2,848.2 4,648.9
4,648.90 4,356.50
Net Sales 2,928.6 3,484.1 4,795.50 4,823.70
Weighted Shares Outstanding 88.0 87.6 98.20 99.20
Share Price $ 30.9 $ 17.1 $ 86.24 $ 43.95
Market Capitalization 2,715.2
2,715.2 1,495.1 8,468.77
8,468.77 4,359.84
Current Assets 1,235.8 1,072.0 2,275.80 2,056.70
Current Liabilities 449.4 +1.88449.8 747.30 674.10
Long-Term Liabilities 544.6 552.8 +0.27
785.00 947.30
Total Liabilities 993.9 1,002.6 1,532.30 1,621.40
Retained Earnings 2,183.7 2,244.9 2,915.30 2,465.50
Working Capital 786.5 622.2 1,528.50 1,382.60
Z Score 4.23 4.23 4.07 4.07 6.11
6.11 4.34
4.34
Notes de l'éditeur
Two slides on Beta
ANF: Advertising costs consist of in−store photographs and advertising in selected national publications and billboards.RL: We advertise in consumer and trade publications, and participate in cooperative advertising on a shared cost basis with some ofour retailer partners.Look at Annual Report for ANF Impairment of asset!!!
ANF: Advertising costs consist of in−store photographs and advertising in selected national publications and billboards.RL: We advertise in consumer and trade publications, and participate in cooperative advertising on a shared cost basis with some ofour retailer partners.Look at Annual Report for ANF Impairment of asset!!!