The document discusses 5 trends: 1) The Great Unraveling involving societal crisis around 2005. 2) The graying and browning of America as minorities drive population growth making the US majority-minority. 3) The economic benefits of large cities according to Kleiber's Law where resource needs increase sublinearly with population. 4) The talent dividend where areas with more college graduates have higher incomes. 5) Emerging technologies and their adoption, like two-and-a-half year olds using iPads. The document examines these trends and their implications.

1. Five Trends in 50 Minutes
Rebecca Ryan
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2. Leaders watch “STEEP” trends:
Socio-cultural Technology
Environment Economy Politics
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3. Trend 1: The Great Unraveling
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4. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark
will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants
of the old social order will
disintegrate. Political and economic
trust will implode. Real hardship will
beset the land, with severe distress
that could involve questions of class,
race, nation and empire.
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5. 1st Turning: “High”
Era of promise, belonging
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6. 2nd Turning: “Awakening”
Era of euphoria, defiance
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7. 3rd Turning: “Unraveling”
Era of separation, anxiety
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8. 4th Turning: “Crisis”
Era of survival, gathering
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9. Trend 2: The Graying and the
Browning of America
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10. Racial and ethnic minorities accounted for
83 percent of our population growth this
last decade. We are well on the way to
becoming a majority-minority society.
Bruce Katz
The Brookings Institution
“An Impending National Transformation”
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12. Friday, February 11, 2011 12

13. In Wisconsin
Source: Wisconsin Population 2035, WI Dept of Administration
http://www.doa.state.wi.us/docview.asp?locid=9&docid=2108
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14. The United States is undergoing the most
significant socio-demographic change since
the huge wave of immigrants in the early
20th century.
Bruce Katz
The Brookings Institution
“An Impending National Transformation”
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15. Trend 3: The Big City Payoff
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16. Kleiber’s Law
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17. A Cat and Mouse Equation
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20. An animal's metabolic rate scales to the
¾ power of the animal's mass. Thus a cat,
having a mass 100 times that of a mouse,
will have a metabolism roughly 31 times
greater than that of a mouse.
Keliber’s Law
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21. Geoffrey West
Santa Fe Institute
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22. Could Kleiber’s Law Apply to
Cities?
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23. When a city doubles in size, it
requires an increase in resources of
only 85 percent.
West’s Findings
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24. Whenever a city doubles in size, every
measure of economic activity, from
construction spending to the amount of
bank deposits, increases by approximately
15% per capita.
West’s Findings
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25. Put another way...
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26. America's 100 largest metropolitan areas
already account for two-thirds of our
population and generate 75 percent of our
gross domestic product.
Bruce Katz
The Brookings Institution
“An Impending National Transformation”
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27. In Wisconsin
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28. Trend 4:
The Talent Dividend
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29. The Talent Dividend
For every 1% increase in the number of
residents who hold bachelors degrees...
There is a $763 increase in annual regional
per capita income.
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30. Fifty-eight percent of a city’s success, as
measured by per capita income, can be
attributed to post-secondary degree
attainment.
CEOs for Cities
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31. Trend 5: Technology
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32. Two & half year old Meets the iPad
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33. What’s your
relationship to
these trends?
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34. We find few senior management teams that
spend as much time on opportunity
management as they do on operations
management.
Gary Hamel & C.K. Prahalad
Competing for the Future (p.85)
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35. Twitter: ngcRebecca
Email: rr@nextgenerationconsulting.com
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