The latest Azerbaijan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.69% of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 8.92% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 4.65mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.18mn b/d in 2009. It should average 5.25mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 5.81mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.83mn b/d in 2001 and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.18mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.53mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.18mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 8.01mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 8.72mn b/d by 2014. In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 589.2bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 677.2bcm targeted for 2014, representing 14.9% growth. Production of an estimated 767.2bcm in 2009 should reach 934.2bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from 177.9bcm in 2009 to 257.1bcm by the end of the period. Azerbaijan's share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 1.87%, while its share of production is put at 2.09%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 2.28%, with the country accounting for 2.68% of supply. For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond. For 2009, BMI has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the previous year's level. Azeri real GDP is estimated by BMI to have risen by 3.8% in 2009, compared with 10.8% growth in 2008. We are assuming average annual growth of 7.2% in 2010-2014. Domestic oil consumption, having tumbled since the 1990s, should now have resumed a growth tack, estimated at an average 7% per annum beyond any weakness seen in 2009. By 2014, the country could be using 98,000b/d of oil. The main government vehicle, Socar, currently accounts for almost half of domestic oil production but, in partnership with international oil companies (IOCs), should raise national output from an estimated 1.04mn b/d in 2009 to 1.43mn b/d by 2014. Gas output should increase from an estimated 16bcm in 2009 to 25bcm during the forecast period. Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Azeri oil and gas liquids production of 17.0%, with volumes reaching a plateau of 1.45mn b/d in 2013, before falling to 1.20mn b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 96.7%, with growth averaging an assumed 7.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 138,000b/d by 2019. Gas production should rise from the estimated 2009 level of 16bcm to 30bcm by 2019, providing export potential increasing to at least 10bcm. Azerbaijan continues to occupy second place in BMI's updated Upstream Business Environment rating, now four points behind neighbour Kazakhstan. Its oil and gas production growth outlook, asset immaturity, high reserves-to-production ratios (RPR) and competitive landscape work in the country's favour, but are undermined by a relatively unappealing risk environment.

1. Find Industry reports, Company profiles
ReportLinker and Market Statistics
>> Get this Report Now by email!
Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Published on January 2010
Report Summary
The latest Azerbaijan Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.69% of the Central and Eastern
European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 8.92% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 4.65mn barrels per day (b/d)
in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.18mn b/d in 2009. It should average 5.25mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 5.81mn b/d by 2014.
Regional oil production was 8.83mn b/d in 2001 and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.18mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.53mn b/d by
2014. Oil exports are growing steadily because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was
exporting an average 4.18mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 8.01mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 8.72mn b/d by
2014.
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 589.2bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 677.2bcm targeted
for 2014, representing 14.9% growth. Production of an estimated 767.2bcm in 2009 should reach 934.2bcm in 2014, which implies
net exports rising from 177.9bcm in 2009 to 257.1bcm by the end of the period. Azerbaijan's share of gas consumption in 2009 was
an estimated 1.87%, while its share of production is put at 2.09%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 2.28%, with
the country accounting for 2.68% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year
(y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to
see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to
US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
For 2009, BMI has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost
US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of
US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The
annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha
price is put by BMI at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the previous year's level. Azeri real GDP is estimated by BMI to have risen by
3.8% in 2009, compared with 10.8% growth in 2008. We are assuming average annual growth of 7.2% in 2010-2014. Domestic oil
consumption, having tumbled since the 1990s, should now have resumed a growth tack, estimated at an average 7% per annum
beyond any weakness seen in 2009. By 2014, the country could be using 98,000b/d of oil. The main government vehicle, Socar,
currently accounts for almost half of domestic oil production but, in partnership with international oil companies (IOCs), should raise
national output from an estimated 1.04mn b/d in 2009 to 1.43mn b/d by 2014. Gas output should increase from an estimated 16bcm
in 2009 to 25bcm during the forecast period.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Azeri oil and gas liquids production of 17.0%, with volumes reaching a
plateau of 1.45mn b/d in 2013, before falling to 1.20mn b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2009
and 2019 is set to increase by 96.7%, with growth averaging an assumed 7.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the
country using 138,000b/d by 2019. Gas production should rise from the estimated 2009 level of 16bcm to 30bcm by 2019, providing
export potential increasing to at least 10bcm.
Azerbaijan continues to occupy second place in BMI's updated Upstream Business Environment rating, now four points behind
neighbour Kazakhstan. Its oil and gas production growth outlook, asset immaturity, high reserves-to-production ratios (RPR) and
competitive landscape work in the country's favour, but are undermined by a relatively unappealing risk environment. The country is
above the midpoint of the league table in BMI's Downstream Business Environment rating, ranked equal fourth alongside Kazakhstan
with some high scores but progress further up the rankings unlikely. The low level of retail site intensity represents a strong suit, along
with region-leading oil demand growth prospects. Kazakhstan now alongside it in the regional rankings and there is longer-term scope
for the Caspian neighbour to move ahead of Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010 Page 1/6

2. Find Industry reports, Company profiles
ReportLinker and Market Statistics
Table of Content
Executive Summary .....7
Azerbaijan Energy Market Overview ..9
Regional Energy Market Overview ...12
Oil Supply & Demand .......... 12
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) ..... 13
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d) . 14
Oil: Downstream .. 15
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) .............. 15
Gas Supply & Demand ......... 16
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) 16
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) .... 17
Liquefied Natural Gas .......... 18
Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) 18
Business Environment Ranking .......19
Central/Eastern Europe Region ... 19
Composite Scores ............ 19
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating 20
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating ... 21
Upstream Scores ............. 21
Downstream Scores ........ 22
Azerbaijan Upstream Rating ' Overview ............ 22
Azerbaijan Upstream Rating ' Potential Returns ............ 22
Azerbaijan Upstream Rating ' Risks To Potential Returns ...... 22
Azerbaijan Downstream Rating ' Overview ....... 23
Azerbaijan Downstream Rating ' Potential Returns ........ 23
Azerbaijan Downstream Rating ' Risks To Potential Returns .. 23
Business Environment ......24
Legal Framework .. 24
Infrastructure 25
Labour Force 26
Foreign Investment Policy ... 27
Tax Regime ... 28
Operational Risk ... 29
Industry Forecast Scenario 30
Oil & Gas Reserves .............. 30
Oil Supply & Demand .......... 30
Gas Supply & Demand ......... 31
Refining & Oil Products Trade ......... 33
Revenues/Import Costs ......... 34
Table: Azerbaijan Oil & Gas ' Historical Data & Forecasts .. 34
Other Energy 35
Table: Azerbaijan Other Energy ' Historical Data & Forecasts ............ 35
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario ..... 36
Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook ......... 36
Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010 Page 2/6

3. Find Industry reports, Company profiles
ReportLinker and Market Statistics
Macroeconomic Outlook ....37
Table: Azerbaijan - Economic Activity, 2005 ' 2014 ....... 38
Competitive Landscape .....39
Table: Key Domestic & Foreign Companies ...... 40
Overview/State Role ............. 40
Table: Key Upstream Players ...... 43
Table: Downstream Player .......... 43
Company Monitor .......44
Socar 44
BP Azerbaijan ....... 49
Statoil ............ 53
Lukoil Azerbaijan .. 55
Azpetrol ......... 57
ExxonMobil ' Summary .. 59
Devon Energy ' Summary ........... 59
Eni ' Summary . 59
Inpex ' Summary ............ 59
Chevron ' Summary ........ 60
Itochu/Delta Hess ' Summary ...... 60
TPAO ' Summary ........... 60
Total ' Summary ............. 60
OVL ' Summary .............. 61
KNOC ' Summary .......... 61
GDF Suez ' Summary ..... 61
Glossary of Terms ......62
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology ....63
Introduction .. 63
Ratings Overview .. 63
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure ........... 64
Indicators ...... 65
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology .. 65
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology ..... 66
Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts ....68
Regional Oil Demand .......... 68
Table: CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) 68
Regional Oil Supply ............. 69
Table: CEE Oil Production (000b/d) ... 69
Regional Refining Capacity . 70
Table: CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) ....... 70
Regional Gas Demand ......... 71
Table: CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) ... 71
Regional Gas Supply ............ 72
Table: CEE Gas Production (bcm) ...... 72
Azerbaijan Country Overview ........... 72
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts .. 73
BMI Forecast Modelling .....74
How we generate our industry forecasts ... 74
Energy Industry .... 75
Cross Checks 75
Sources ......... 75
Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010 Page 3/6

4. Find Industry reports, Company profiles
ReportLinker and Market Statistics
Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010 Page 4/6

5. Find Industry reports, Company profiles
ReportLinker and Market Statistics
Fax Order Form
To place an order via fax simply print this form, fill in the information below and fax the completed form to:
Europe, Middle East and Africa : + 33 4 37 37 15 56
Asia, Oceania and America : + 1 (805) 617 17 93
If you have any questions please visit http://www.reportlinker.com/notify/contact
Order Information
Please verify that the product information is correct and select the format(s) you require.
Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Product Formats
Please select the product formats and the quantity you require.
Digital Copy--USD 530.00 Quantity: _____
Contact Information
Please enter all the information below in BLOCK CAPITALS
Title: Mr Mrs Dr Miss Ms Prof
First Name: _____________________________ Last Name: __________________________________
Email Address: __________________________________________________________________________
Job Title: __________________________________________________________________________
Organization: __________________________________________________________________________
Address: __________________________________________________________________________
City: __________________________________________________________________________
Postal / Zip Code: __________________________________________________________________________
Country: __________________________________________________________________________
Phone Number: __________________________________________________________________________
Fax Number: __________________________________________________________________________
Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010 Page 5/6

6. Find Industry reports, Company profiles
ReportLinker and Market Statistics
Payment Information
Please indicate the payment method, you would like to use by selecting the appropriate box.
Payment by credit card Card Number: ______________________________________________
Expiry Date __________ / _________
CVV Number _____________________
Card Type (ex: Visa, Amex…) _________________________________
Payment by wire transfer Crédit Mutuel
RIB : 10278 07314 00020257701 89
BIC : CMCIFR2A
IBAN : FR76 1027 8073 1400 0202 5770 189
Payment by check UBIQUICK SAS
16 rue Grenette – 69002 LYON, FRANCE
Customer signature:
Please note that by ordering from Reportlinker you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions at
http://www.reportlinker.com/index/terms
Please fax this form to:
Europe, Middle East and Africa : + 33 4 37 37 15 56
Asia, Oceania and America : + 1 (805) 617 17 93
Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010 Page 6/6