This report provides:- a 5-year forecast of more than 60 mobile and fixed KPIs for the region as a whole and for key countries- an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and well-documented forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries- an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison- a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.- Our forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market experts from our topic-led Research programmes and Consulting division, as well as external interviews.- In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).

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The Latin America telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2013'2018
Published on April 2014
Report Summary
This report provides:
- a 5-year forecast of more than 60 mobile and fixed KPIs for the region as a whole and for key countries
- an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and well-documented forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and
for key countries
- an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a
cross-country comparison
- a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.
- Our forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market experts from our topic-led Research programmes and Consulting
division, as well as external interviews.
- In addition to our robust set of historical data, our forecasts draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous
methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).
Table of Content
Contents
8.Executive summary
9.Competition will stimulate dynamism in all countries, driving telecoms service revenue to USD179 billion in Latin America by 2018
10.Handset data will generate about 60% of revenue growth during 2013'2018 and will become the second-largest source after
mobile voice by 2018
11.We forecast fixed and mobile revenue growth in all countries, but it will be weakest in Chile and Mexico where levels of competition
are high
12.Forecast revision: we have revised up our revenue forecast to reflect stronger than expected smartphone take-up and rising
Internet demand
13.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile market [1]
14.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile market [2]
15.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the fixed market
16.Key implications and recommendations for telecoms operators
17.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
18.Geographical coverage: We model the seven largest markets, which account for about 90% of LATAM's total telecoms service
revenue
19.Market context: The two largest countries by population ' Brazil and Mexico ' generated 56% of the region's telecoms retail revenue
in 2013
20.Fixed and mobile penetration: Fixed broadband growth will remain solid whereas mobile will slowdown, except for mobile M2M
21.Mobile penetration: Handset penetration will slow down as markets mature
22.Mobile connections: 3G will become the dominant technology in 2015 and LTE will account for 14% of mobile connections in 2018
23.Smartphones and LTE: Smartphones will account for about 60% of handsets in most countries by 2018 as operators stimulate
demand
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24.Mobile ARPU: Chile and Mexico will have the highest ARPU decline because of increased competition
25.Fixed services: The potential for fixed broadband growth is high in LATAM because the service is underpenetrated and operators
are investing
26.Fixed broadband: Argentina has the highest household penetration rate, but Brazil's will significantly increase during the next 5
years
27.Revenue and ARPU: Fixed broadband and mobile ARPU will be more resilient than fixed voice, which will increasingly become a
commodity
28.Service revenue: The revenue mix by country will not change dramatically during 2013'2018
29.Revenue mix: Mobile services will grow more than fixed in all countries, increasing mobile's share of retail revenue to 60% in the
region in 2018
30.Individual country forecasts
31.Argentina: Service revenue will reach ARS77 billion in 2018, of which mobile services will generate 71%, the highest ratio in
LATAM
32.Argentina: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
33.Argentina ' mobile: ARPU will continue to grow driven by an increase in smartphones, and a high inflation rate
34.Argentina ' fixed: The market looks resilient as broadband, and pay-TV adoption is strong and acts as a retention tool for voice
35.Brazil: Mobile handset data and fixed broadband will drive service revenue to BRL131 billion by 2018
36.Brazil: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
37.Brazil ' mobile: Strong smartphone growth will improve the handset mix and will help to ease pressure on ARPU
38.Brazil ' fixed: Broadband penetration is low, but competition is stimulating demand and infrastructure is improving
39.Chile: Service revenue will decline 4% in 2014 because of MTR cuts, but retail revenue will continue to grow albeit at a slow rate
40.Chile: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
41.Chile ' mobile: ARPU will be under pressure because of MTR cuts between 2014 and 2019 and increased numbers of MVNOs
42.Chile ' fixed: We forecast further fixed-to-mobile voice substitution whereas the fixed broadband market will have solid growth
43.Colombia: Service revenue will reach COP21 trillion in 2018, but mobile voice services will continue to be predominant
44.Colombia: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
45.Colombia ' mobile: ARPU will peak in 2014, but the MTR cuts and MVNO competition will drive further price pressure thereafter
46.Colombia ' fixed: The broadband market will continue to grow as operators continue to investing to meet untapped Internet
demand
47.Mexico: Service revenue will grow slowly because new regulation will put significant pressure on mobile voice
48.Mexico: Key trends, drivers and assumptions
List of figures
Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Latin America, 2009'2018
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Latin America, 2013'2018
Figure 4: CAGRs for fixed and mobile retail revenue (2013'2018) and market size by total retail revenue (2018), by country, Latin
America
Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Latin America, 2013 and
2018
Figure 6a'b: Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the mobile market, Latin America
Figure 7: Summary of key drivers and assumptions for the fixed market, Latin America
Figure 8: Mobile connections by technology generation and fixed broadband household penetration, by country, 2018
Figure 9: Metrics for the seven countries modelled individually in Latin America, 2013
Figure 10: Penetration rate by service type, Latin America, 2009'2018
Figure 11: Connections by service type, and growth rates, Latin America, 2013'2018
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Figure 12: Active mobile SIM penetration by country (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2009'2018
Figure 13: Mobile connections by technology generation (excluding M2M), and 3G and 4G's share of connections, Latin America,
2009'2018
Figure 14: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Latin America, 2013
and 2018
Figure 15: Mobile ARPU by country, Latin America, 2009'2018
Figure 16: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, Latin America,
2009'2018
Figure 17: Fixed broadband penetration of households by country, Latin America, 2009'2018
Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, fixed voice and fixed broadband ASPU, and mobile ARPU, Latin America,
2009'2018
Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Latin America, 2013'2018
Figure 20: Service revenue by country, Latin America, 2013
Figure 21: Service revenue by country, Latin America, 2018
Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), by country, Latin America, 2013
and 2018
Figure 23: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Argentina, 2009'2018
Figure 24: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Argentina, 2013'2018
Figure 25: Connections by type, and growth rates, Argentina, 2013'2018
Figure 26: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Argentina
Figure 27: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Argentina, 2009'2018
Figure 28: ARPU rates by type, Argentina, 2009'2018
Figure 29: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Argentina, 2009'2018
Figure 30: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Argentina, 2009'2018
Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Brazil, 2009'2018
Figure 32: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Brazil, 2013'2018
Figure 33: Connections by type, and growth rates, Brazil, 2013'2018
Figure 34: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Brazil
Figure 35: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Brazil, 2009'2018
Figure 36: ARPU rates by type, Brazil, 2009'2018
Figure 37: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Brazil, 2009'2018
Figure 38: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Brazil, 2009'2018
Figure 39: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Chile, 2009'2018
Figure 40: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Chile, 2013'2018
Figure 41: Connections by type, and growth rates, Chile, 2013'2018
Figure 42: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Chile
Figure 43: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Chile, 2009'2018
Figure 44: ARPU rates by type, Chile, 2009'2018
Figure 45: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Chile, 2009'2018
Figure 46: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Chile, 2009'2018
Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Colombia, 2009'2018
Figure 48: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Colombia, 2013'2018
Figure 49: Connections by type, and growth rates, Colombia, 2013'2018
Figure 50: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Colombia
Figure 51: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Colombia, 2009'2018
Figure 52: ARPU rates by type, Colombia, 2009'2018
Figure 53: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Colombia, 2009'2018
Figure 54: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Colombia, 2009'2018
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Figure 55: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Mexico, 2009'2018
Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Mexico, 2013'2018
Figure 57: Connections by type, and growth rates, Mexico, 2013'2018
Figure 58: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Mexico
Figure 59: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Mexico, 2009'2018
Figure 60: ARPU rates by type, Mexico, 2009'2018
Figure 61: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Mexico, 2009'2018
Figure 62: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Mexico, 2009'2018
Figure 63: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Peru, 2009'2018
Figure 64: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Peru, 2013'2018
Figure 65: Connections by type, and growth rates, Peru, 2013'2018
Figure 66: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Peru
Figure 67: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Peru, 2009'2018
Figure 68: ARPU rates by type, Peru, 2009'2018
Figure 69: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Peru, 2009'2018
Figure 70: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Peru, 2009'2018
Figure 71: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), Venezuela, 2009'2018
Figure 72: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Venezuela, 2013'2018
Figure 73: Connections by type, and growth rates, Venezuela, 2013'2018
Figure 74: Summary of key drivers and assumptions, Venezuela
Figure 75: Mobile, smartphone and 4G penetration rates, Venezuela, 2009'2018
Figure 76: ARPU rates by type, Venezuela, 2009'2018
Figure 77: Fixed penetration rates by service type, Venezuela, 2009'2018
Figure 78: Fixed ASPU rates by service type, Venezuela, 2009'2018
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