This report is the result of SDI’s extensive market and company research covering the global commercial aircraft industry. It provides detailed analysis of both historic and forecast global industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of the leading companies in the industry, and key news.
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This report is the result of SDI’s extensive market and company
research covering the global commercial aircraft industry. It
provides detailed analysis of both historic and forecast global
industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced
by industry participants, analysis of the leading companies in the
industry, and key news.
3. Brief SummaryBrief Summary
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Product Synopsis
This report is the result of SDI’s extensive market and company
research covering the global commercial aircraft industry. It
provides detailed analysis of both historic and forecast global
industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced
by industry participants, analysis of the leading companies in the
industry, and key news.
Introduction and Landscape
Why was the report written?
“The Global Commercial Aircraft Market 2013–2023” offers the
reader detailed analysis of the global commercial aircraft market
over the next ten years, alongside potential market opportunities
to enter the industry, using detailed market size forecasts.
What are the key drivers behind recent market changes?
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The global commercial aircraft sector is expected to experience a
slow and stable growth during the forecast period. Airline
companies around the world are expected to procure
approximately 34000 airplanes during the 2011-2031 periods
according to Boeing’s estimates. The commercial aircraft market
grows parallel to the civil aviation markets across all major
countries. With the civil aviation market improving steadily
following the recent economic recession, the airline companies
are spending significantly to replace their ageing aircraft fleets.
Additionally, the expansion plans of airlines from major emerging
markets of the Asia Pacific region, the Middle East, and Europe
has initiated a series of contracts for aircrafts of various types
during the last few years. The global air traffic has also grown
substantially with the surge in the number of passengers
preferring air travel. These factors are therefore expected to
cumulatively drive the commercial aircraft market during the
forecast period.
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What makes this report unique and essential to read?
“The Global Commercial Aircraft Market 2013–2023” provides
detailed analysis of the current industry size and growth
expectations from 2013 to 2023, including highlights of key
growth stimulators. It also benchmarks the industry against key
global markets and provides detailed understanding of emerging
opportunities in specific areas.
Key Features and Benefits
The report provides detailed analysis of the market for commercial
aircraft during 2013–2023, including the factors that influence why
countries are investing or cutting aircraft expenditure. It provides
detailed expectations of growth rates and projected total
expenditure.
Recent years have witnessed a revolution in the digitization of the
commercial aircraft industry with various airlines realizing
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the importance of providing added features such as real-time
weather details, flight operations, asset tracking, health
monitoring, and airport taxi services. The near future will see
significant opportunities for aircraft manufacturers and OEMs to
use various means of digitization as a potential source of
differentiation. Today’s world is increasingly adopting the digital
model in all aspects of living and thus embedded sensors improve
the efficiency of business processes when combined with
mobility applications. An example of such an initiative is United
Airlines rolling out 11,000 Apple iPads to its pilots in an effort to
further digitize the cockpits. The iPads are infused to replace the
paper manuals with electronic flight bags (EFB) that will be
available on the Apple iPad via dedicated application. These
devices are expected to reduce the amount of paper required for
flight operating manuals, navigation charts, reference handbooks,
flight checklists etc.
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Key Market Issues
One of the major challenges being faced by the industry is the
sheer expense involved in developing a new commercial aircraft.
A good example of this is the US$32 billion that Boeing spent to
develop its 787 Dreamliner, due to which it doesn’t expect to see
any profits for the next 10 years at least; the company’s initial
estimate was a development cost not exceeding US$6 billion.
According to Adam Pilarski, Senior Vice President with the
aviation-consulting firm Avitas, even though the 787 Dreamliner
may be the best commercial plane ever built, its development is
likely to result in heavy losses for the company. Similarly, the
development costs for Airbus’s A380 have topped US$18 billion
and this aircraft too could result in the company incurring losses.
Delivery delays for the 787 are also expected to add to the
problems faced by Boeing.
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Commercial airlines incur the highest expenditure on fuel, with
over 33% of airlines’ total cost resulting from fuel spending. This
is why the current steady increase in fuel prices globally poses
such a significant risk to the overall sustainability of the industry.
In today’s economic climate when carriers are competing fiercely
for market share, fuel prices play a major role in determining
profitability. The industry’s global trade body, the International Air
Transport Association (IATA) has recently cut its forecast for the
sector’s annual profits by US$500 million due to the threat posed
by rising fuel prices. According to Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director-
General, European airlines are heading for record losses of about
US$600 million in 2013, with the collapse of two carriers,
Barcelona-based Spanair and Hungary’s Malev cited as examples;
high fuel prices were deemed to be the major reason for this.
Considering the global economic growth which is currently
pegged at 2%, the global aviation industry is under considerable
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threat from rising fuel prices and industry think tanks are now
asking governments to re-think regulations such as the
controversial carbon tax being imposed by the European Union on
the industry.
Key Highlights
The US and European countries have traditionally been viewed as
the prominent centers of the global commercial aircraft market.
This has however, started to change in recent years with the
saturation of these markets and the resultant negligible growth.
Countries of the Asia Pacific and the Middle East regions that are
experiencing robust economic growth are now emerging as the
markets with the maximum growth potential, while the US and
Europe are expected to procure aircraft primarily for fleet
modernization. Indonesia, China, Malaysia, Australia, Saudi
Arabia, the UAE, and Israel are examples of countries that are
expected to exhibit double digit growth over the forecast period.
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According to a report published by Airbus, Asia-Pacific will
account for approximately 34% of the demand for commercial
aircraft over the next 20 years, with India (9.8%) and China (7.2%)
having the fastest growth rates in terms of passenger traffic on
domestic markets.
Research and development in the commercial aircraft industry is
currently focused primarily on developing technologies that aid in
fuel efficiency. With fuel prices having increased substantially
over the last few years, developing aircrafts that consume less
fuel has become mandatory for reducing the cost of ownership
and ensuring sustenance and profitability for airline companies.
This need is further compounded by the residual effects of the
September 11 attacks on the US that have most adversely
impacted the global commercial aviation industry. Globally,
various airlines are now considering retiring some of their current
fleet earlier than originally planned in order to replace them with a
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newer generation of models, with a view of achieving
considerably lower operating costs. This drive for more efficient
aircraft will also increase demand for modularization of design
given that it will enable efficiency upgrades.
12. Table of ContentsTable of Contents
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1 Introduction
1.1 What is this Report About?
1.2 Definitions
1.3 Summary Methodology
1.4 About Strategic Defence Intelligence
2 Executive Summary
3 Global Commercial Aircraft market Size and Drivers
3.1 Commercial aircraft market Size and Forecast
3.1.1 Demand for commercial aircraft to remain stable across the forecast period
3.2 Global Commercial Aircraft Market - Regional Analysis
3.2.1 Asia-Pacific dominates the global commercial aircraft market
3.2.2 Asia-Pacific commercial aircraft market to be the largest market globally
3.2.3 Commercial aircraft expenditure in North America set to experience modest growth
3.2.4 European commercial aircraft sector to be third largest market globally
3.2.5 Commercial Aircraft market in the Middle East expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.89%
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3.2.6 Mexico and Brazil expected to dominate Commercial Aircraft sector in Latin America
3.2.7 Markets in Africa expected to increase over the forecast period
3.3 Commercial Aircraft Sub-Sector Market Size Composition
3.3.1 Single-aisle aircraft are expected to have the largest share of the total commercial aircraft market
during the forecast period
3.3.2 Market for twin-aisle aircraft to record a CAGR of 3.11% during the forecast period
3.3.3 Regional Jets market to grow at a CAGR of 3.56%
3.3.4 Market for Cargo Aircraft to grow at a CAGR of 0.43%
3.3.5 Market for business jets to record a CAGR of 3.65%
3.4 Demand Drivers and Growth Stimulators
3.4.1 The rise of the low cost carrier model
3.4.2 Growth in air cargo traffic
3.4.3 Strong continued growth in North America and Europe
3.4.4 Older and less fuel efficient aircraft to be replaced with eco-efficient models
4 Industry Trends, Recent Developments and Challenges
4.1 Technological Developments
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4.1.1 Renewed focus on developing technologies to maximize fuel efficiency
4.1.2 Research and development efforts oriented towards reduction in noise pollution
4.1.3 Improved turbulence detection systems to prevent crashes
4.2 Market Trends
4.2.1 Fast growth in emerging markets
4.2.2 Growing demand for fuel efficient aircraft
4.2.3 Regional jets to experience greater demand compared to larger commercial airliners
4.3 Industry Consolidation
4.3.1 The industry to witness joint ventures and alliances
4.4 Key Challenges
4.4.1 Large development costs and delays pose a major obstacle
5 SWOT Analysis of the Commercial Aircraft Market
5.1 Strengths
5.1.1 Large population, operating framework, and liberal laws in Asia-Pacific to ensure steady rise in air
traffic
5.1.2 Commercial aviation drives the modern economy
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5.1.3 Acquisition of commercial aircrafts gives countries a strategic advantage
5.2 Weaknesses
5.2.1 Lack of skilled labor impacts the growth of the industry
5.2.2 High barriers to entry resulting in fewer new entrants in the market
5.3 Oil price volatility
5.4 Opportunities
5.4.1 Digitization of the commercial aircraft industry
5.4.2 Focusing on niche markets which are shunned by major carriers
5.4.3 Business aviation to present many growth opportunities over the forecast period
5.5 Threats
5.5.1 US and European economic crisis
5.5.2 Rising fuel prices could adversely affect industry growth
6 Country Analysis - Commercial Aircraft Market
6.1 United States Market Size and Forecast 2013-2023
6.1.1 Single-aisle aircraft expected to account for the largest share of the US commercial aircraft
expenditure
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6.1.2 Twin-aisle segment expected to decline at a CAGR of -1.09% over the forecast period
6.2 Russia Market Size and Forecast 2013-2023
6.2.1 Russian single-aisle aircraft market to witness highest spending during the forecast period
6.2.2 Twin-aisle expected to account for the second largest segment in the Russian commercial aircraft
market
6.2.3 Regional jets to account for a share of 7% of total Russian expenditure on commercial planes
6.3 United Kingdom Market Size and Forecast 2013-2023
6.3.1 Twin-aisle segment expected to drive the UK commercial aircraft market
6.4 Ireland Market Size and Forecast 2013-2023
6.4.1 Spending on single aisle aircraft to lead the Irish commercial aircraft market
6.5 Turkey Market Size and Forecast 2013-2023
6.5.1 Single-aisle segment to drive the Turkish commercial aircraft market
6.6 Chinese Market Size and Forecast 2013-2023
6.6.1 Single-aisle segment is expected to constitute for 53.6% share in Chinese commercial aircraft market
6.6.2 Twin-aisle segment is expected to account for the second largest share during the forecast period
6.6.3 Economic restructuring to bolster demand for cargo aircraft in China
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6.7 Indian Market Size and Forecast 2013-2023
6.7.1 Expenditure on the single-aisle segment driving the Indian commercial aircraft market
6.7.2 Twin-aisle expected to constitute the second largest market share
6.8 Indonesia Market Size and Forecast 2013-2023
6.8.1 Lion Air's procurement plans to bolster single aisle aircraft market in Indonesia
6.8.2 Business jets segment is expected to account for the second largest share during the forecast
period
6.9 Singapore Market Size and Forecast 2013-2023
6.9.1 Expenditure on the twin-aisle segment driving the Singaporean commercial aircraft market
6.9.2 Single-aisle aircraft expected to constitute the second largest market share
6.1 Mexico Market Size and Forecast 2013-2023
6.10.1 Single-aisle aircraft expected to be the most important segment of commercial aircraft in Mexico
6.10.2 Business jets expected to be the second most important segment of Commercial Aircraft in Mexico
6.11 Brazil Market Size and Forecast 2013-2023
6.11.1 Single Aisle Aircraft expected to be the most important segment of Commercial Aircraft in Brazil
6.11.2 Business jets expected to be the second most important segment of commercial aircraft in Brazil
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6.12 UAE Market Size and Forecast 2013-2023
6.12.1 Spending on Twin Aisle Aircraft to account for the largest segment in the UAE
6.13 Kuwait Market Size and Forecast 2013-2023
6.13.1 Spending on Single Aisle Aircraft to account for the largest segment in Kuwait
6.14 Ethiopia Market Size and Forecast 2013-2023
6.14.1 Spending on Cargo Aircraft to account for the largest segment in the Ethiopia
6.14.2 Spending on Twin Aisle Aircraft to account for the second largest segment in Ethiopia
6.15 Libya Market Size and Forecast 2013-2023
6.15.1 Spending on Single Aisle Aircraft to account for the largest segment in Libya
7 Major Commercial Aircraft Programs
7.1 Single aisle
7.1.1 737 MAX
7.1.2 A320
7.1.3 737-800
7.2 Twin aisle
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7.2.1 787-9
7.2.2 A350-900
7.2.3 A350-1000
7.3 Cargo
7.3.1 767-300F
7.3.2 777 Freighter
7.3.3 A330-200F
7.4 Business Jets
7.4.1 Global Jets
7.4.2 Challenger Series Jets
7.4.3 Cessna Citation Latitude business aircraft
7.5 Regional Jets
7.5.1 E175 Jets
7.5.2 CRJ900 NextGen Jetliners
7.5.3 Q400 NextGen airliners
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8 Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights
8.1 Competitive Landscape Overview
8.1.1 Airbus S.A.S: overview
8.1.2 Airbus S.A.S: products and services
8.1.3 Airbus S.A.S: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
8.1.4 Airbus S.A.S: alliances
8.1.5 Airbus S.A.S: recent contract awards
8.1.6 Airbus S.A.S: financial analysis
8.1.7 Boeing: Overview
8.1.8 Boeing: Products and Services
8.1.9 Boeing: Alliances
8.1.10 Boeing: Recent Contract Wins
8.1.11 Boeing: Financial Analysis
8.1.12 Commercial Aircraft of China, Ltd.: overview
8.1.13 Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, Ltd.: products and services
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8.1.14 Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, Ltd.: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
8.1.15 Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, Ltd.: alliances
8.1.16 Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, Ltd.: recent contract awards
8.1.17 United Aircraft Corporation: overview
8.1.18 United Aircraft Corporation: products and services
8.1.19 United Aircraft Corporation: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
8.1.20 United Aircraft Corporation: alliances
8.1.21 United Aircraft Corporation: recent contract awards
8.1.22 United Aircraft Corporation - financial analysis
8.1.23 Bombardier Inc: overview
8.1.24 Bombardier Inc: products and services
8.1.25 Bombardier Inc: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
8.1.26 Bombardier Inc: alliances
8.1.27 Bombardier Inc: recent contract awards
8.1.28 Bombardier Inc: Financial Analysis
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8.1.29 Embraer - EmpresaBrasileira de Aeronautica SA: overview
8.1.30 Embraer - EmpresaBrasileira de Aeronautica SA: products and services
8.1.31 Embraer - EmpresaBrasileira de Aeronautica SA: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
8.1.32 Embraer - EmpresaBrasileira de Aeronautica SA: alliances
8.1.33 Embraer - EmpresaBrasileira de Aeronautica SA: recent contract awards
8.1.34 Embraer - EmpresaBrasileira de Aeronautica SA: Financial Analysis
9 Appendix
9.1 Methodology
9.2 About SDI
9.3 Disclaimer
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